A March to Pointspread Glory

John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: A March to Pointspread Glory

ComptrBob said:
We need to get real. As JK knows, I am a big fan of his prowess, both handicapping and on the radio, but let's stop a bit and assess his known record. For roughly 10 years, I have been tracking his free plays given on the radio and Internet (exception is the Sam's town radio shows which aren't archived), and his CBB record is 164-153-2, 51.7%, -3.95 units which includes his great run here on EOG and WW (not including today's games).

Undoubedly, this is a small fraction of the games he has actually bet over that 10+ year period, but presumably most were his best plays of the day as he gave them out. Even this is a small sample statistically, but I'm not getting too carried away with a losing month and a half.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the accountability check. You're the Price Waterhouse of the sports betting industry. Any other records you would care to share?
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: A March to Pointspread Glory

SELECTIONS FOR WEDNESDAY, MARCH 9

648 Hawaii -1.5 over San Jose State.....Hawaii beat SJSU twice during the regular season, including a 77-71 win in which the Warriors ended the game on a 17-5 run over the final six minutes. UH started the WAC season 0-5, but finished 8-3 over the final 11 conference games.

649 Fresno State +1 over Nevada......Love the way the Bulldogs went wire-to-wire in an 85-70 home win over Hawaii to snap the Warriors' five-game winning streak. Nevada's defense allowed New Mexico State to shoot 54% from the field (58% from beyond the arc) in a loss last Saturday in Las Cruces.

651 TCU Pk over Wyoming......The Frogs' 13-game losing streak should come to an end against a Wyoming team that surrendered 64 points in the second half of a 102-78 loss to BYU last Saturday. Teams split their regular-season meeting with each squad holding serve at home. Prefer the TCU backcourt of Hank Thorns and Greg Hill over the undersized JayDee Luster and the erratic Desmar Jackson. Total bet from 138 to 142, but I missed the move.

654 Stanford -3.5 over Oregon State.....Game 31 for the 15-15 Stanford Cardinal. Johnny Dawkins is no longer pushing the pace with his young team. Stanford's defense allowed 65 points per game, second in the Pac-10 behind USC's stifling defense. The Beavers are 1-12 away from home this season and they've experienced some disciplinary problems late in the season.

656 Oregon Pk over Arizona State.....Disregard the Sun Devils' win over Oregon State last Saturday as the Beavers played only six men. Oregon's best game is better than ASU's top effort. The Ducks can score the basketball as evidenced by their 82 points against Arizona last Saturday when they recorded 20 assists against only six turnovers.

March record: 19-20.

Note: Back first thing tomorrow morning with a look at some Big East totals.
 
rainbow

rainbow

EOG Master
Re: A March to Pointspread Glory

John Kelly said:
Hello rainbow. I'm staying in Las Vegas for the conference tournament action. I'll be attending both games in the WAC tournament tomorrow at Orleans Arena. I will arrive in Costa Rica the day following Selection Sunday.
Click to expand...
My bad, I was thinking you were leaving Tuesday.....
 
munson15

munson15

I want winners...
Re: A March to Pointspread Glory

Great card yesterday, JK, I figured you had some kind of angle regarding Madison Square Garden on those overs. Thanks and GL on today's slate. Let's hope the western time zone is as good to you as the eastern was last night.91023i2ndw;l
 
mrbowling300

mrbowling300

EOG Dedicated
Re: A March to Pointspread Glory

JK, got your date wrong...it's Wednesday, March 9 :)

John Kelly said:
SELECTIONS FOR TUESDAY, MARCH 8

648 Hawaii -1.5 over San Jose State.....Hawaii beat SJSU twice during the regular season, including a 77-71 win in which the Warriors ended the game on a 17-5 run over the final six minutes. UH started the WAC season 0-5, but finished 8-3 over the final 11 conference games.

649 Fresno State +1 over Nevada......Love the way the Bulldogs went wire-to-wire in an 85-70 home win over Hawaii to snap the Warriors' five-game winning streak. Nevada's defense allowed New Mexico State to shoot 54% from the field (58% from beyond the arc) in a loss last Saturday in Las Cruces.

651 TCU Pk over Wyoming......The Frogs' 13-game losing streak should come to an end against a Wyoming team that surrendered 64 points in the second half of a 102-78 loss to BYU last Saturday. Teams split their regular-season meeting with each squad holding serve at home. Prefer the TCU backcourt of Hank Thorns and Greg Hill over the undersized JayDee Luster and the erratic Desmar Jackson. Total bet from 138 to 142, but I missed the move.

654 Stanford -3.5 over Oregon State.....Game 31 for the 15-15 Stanford Cardinal. Johnny Dawkins is no longer pushing the pace with his young team. Stanford's defense allowed 65 points per game, second in the Pac-10 behind USC's stifling defense. The Beavers are 1-12 away from home this season and they've experienced some disciplinary problems late in the season.

656 Oregon Pk over Arizona State.....Disregard the Sun Devils' win over Oregon State last Saturday as the Beavers played only six men. Oregon's best game is better than ASU's top effort. The Ducks can score the basketball as evidenced by their 82 points against Arizona last Saturday when they recorded 20 assists against only six turnovers.

March record: 19-20.

Note: Back first thing tomorrow morning with a look at some Big East totals.
Click to expand...
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: A March to Pointspread Glory

brians said:
Did I miss the look at Big East totals?
Click to expand...

I passed on today's Big East totals. Not sure about the impact of the 24-hour wheel-back for the mid-pack conference teams. Just a thought: UConn should be careful about running with a rested and physical Pittsburgh team. In the words of Dickie V., "Blowout city, baby."
 
brians

brians

EOG Dedicated
Re: A March to Pointspread Glory

John Kelly said:
Just a thought: UConn should be careful about running with a rested and physical Pittsburgh team. In the words of Dickie V., "Blowout city, baby."
Click to expand...

I agree. I think the Big East Tournament format offers an advantage to teams that played Day-1 over the team that had a bye. But order is restored in Day-3 when teams with a double-bye seem to possess the advantage. Could be more a function of the quality of teams coming off the double-bye as opposed to that of those who played Day-1 & Day-2.

Case in point: UConn vs G'Town & Rutgers vs SJU.
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: A March to Pointspread Glory

Need some more great numbers.

Went 2-3 on Wednesday, now 21-23 for the month.

Studying all night tonight for a busy day tomorrow.

Will post selections by 8:00 a.m. Pacific time.
 
C

Ching or Dong

EOG Enthusiast
Re: A March to Pointspread Glory

I think you saw the real Pack in the 2nd half, really shakey. Burton is 2 and done and Story had a game to remember with 6 for 6 from 3 land. Would lean to NM State on Thursday and would favor the over but havent seen a line. They ended up 66% from 3 land and 70% from the line but both of those will not be there on Thurs. 2nd half fade so be first in line to get down at the best number depending on first half score.
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: A March to Pointspread Glory

Ching or Dong said:
I think you saw the real Pack in the 2nd half, really shakey. Burton is 2 and done and Story had a game to remember with 6 for 6 from 3 land. Would lean to NM State on Thursday and would favor the over but havent seen a line. They ended up 66% from 3 land and 70% from the line but both of those will not be there on Thurs. 2nd half fade so be first in line to get down at the best number depending on first half score.
Click to expand...

Thanks for your insight, Ching. Nightmare first-half for Fresno.
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: A March to Pointspread Glory

SELECTIONS FOR THURSDAY, MARCH 10

708 Pittsburgh -5.5 over Connecticut

711-712 Cincinnati-Notre Dame "OVER" 132

713-714 Marquette-Louisville "OVER" 142.5

733 Colorado +6.5 over Kansas State

<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top>755 Minnesota +1.5 over Northwestern.....Hard to believe the Gophers were 16-4 at one point this season. Minny finished the season losing 10 of 11 games, including a 68-57 loss at Northwestern. Minny has a chance to start over here. The Gophers should dominate the paint and the glass. Trevor Mbakwe's athleticism should be too much for the 'Cats.

760 Penn State -4.5 over Indiana.....The Hoosiers lost eight straight and 17 of their last 20 games to end the season. IU's last four losses were by margins of 11, 21, 10 and 24 points. PSU seniors Battle and Brooks hold an edge over their younger foes.

761 California +3 over USC.....The points could come in handy as the Trojans struggle offensively. Both teams are playing well. The Golden Bears look to avenge a home loss to the Trojans a couple of weeks ago.

763 Oregon State +10.5 over Arizona

763-764 Oregon State-Arizona "UNDER" 141

767 Washington State +5.5 over Washington.....Klay Thompson is back for the Cougs. The Huskies are without Gaddy, Overton and possibly Holiday (concussion).

773 Utah +16 over San Diego State.....Counting on the Aztecs to take Utah lightly after defeating the Utes by 32 points last month. Complacency is a problem for SDSU. Fisher's team is planning to play three games in three days and they've been a lazy favorite, at times.

777 San Jose State +2 over Idaho

784 Pacific -1.5 over UCSB.....Both teams are 8-8. Pacific finished the season with three straight losses, including a pair of home losses when twice installed as a double-digit favorite. The Tigers posted a pair of victories over the Gauchos in the regular season.

788 CS Northridge -1.5 over CS Fullerton.....CSUN overcame a 14-point deficit (trailed 50-36 with 13 minutes remaining) at Titan Gym to beat Fullerton one month ago. Northridge is the deeper team and the better defensive squad, a pair of important factors in closely-contested games.

March record: a disappointing 21-23. Big four-day run begins today.
 
munson15

munson15

I want winners...
Re: A March to Pointspread Glory

Thanks and GL, JK. What's a "Gaucho" anyway? Hopefully today's result makes the answer irrelevant.
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: A March to Pointspread Glory

munson15 said:
Any relation to the "Wild Bull of the Pampas" Luis Firpo?:+textinb3
Click to expand...

I'm more familiar with Pampero Firpo than Luis Firpo. Pampero Firpo was a professional wrestler in the 1970s. He used the drawn-out phrase, "Ooooh yeaaaaah," long before Randy "Macho Man" Savage made it famous. Okay, enough professional wrestling, my middle-class roots are showing.
 
munson15

munson15

I want winners...
Re: A March to Pointspread Glory

Luis Firpo was a heavyweight contender who owned the distinction of having knocked champion Jack Dempsey completely out of the ring during an unsuccessful challenge for the title in 1923. I know how well-rounded your sports knowledge is, JK, and wanted to fill in that blank for you.:cheers
 
B

bernardoincr

EOG Dedicated
Re: A March to Pointspread Glory

ras went with santa barbara and fullerton. i passed and am going with jk.
is this loyalty or what?
 
munson15

munson15

I want winners...
Re: A March to Pointspread Glory

On my worksheet, I have JK and RAS within a unit of each other, both around +14 units, longterm. That makes it a buyback for me, Bernie, if I can get 1-1/2 on those dogs. GL!
 
brians

brians

EOG Dedicated
Re: A March to Pointspread Glory

Thanks again for the selections JK.

Most of these numbers have moved against you ... although I have a feeling these moves don't concern you. Do you post plays at current numbers (for documentation purposes) knowing that you'll probably get a better number at the window? Or are these market moves surprising you?
 
J

jack stewart

2
Re: A March to Pointspread Glory

John Kelly said:
A native cowboy of the South American pampas.
Click to expand...

Also a restaurant on Wilshire Blvd. in L.A.--The El Gaucho Room (45 years ago). I originally liked Santa Barbara but they have a key injury to 6-7 235 lb. Jaime Serna, their best shooter who likely will miss game.
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: A March to Pointspread Glory

brians said:
Thanks again for the selections JK.

Most of these numbers have moved against you ... although I have a feeling these moves don't concern you. Do you post plays at current numbers (for documentation purposes) knowing that you'll probably get a better number at the window? Or are these market moves surprising you?
Click to expand...

I often agree with the person or persons responsible for the Pinnacle openers. I've found Pinnacle's basketball openers are excellent.

Posting a slew of selections at the same time against one set of numbers is not the way to get the best of it. My personal betting often beats my posted numbers. Often times, I'm taking a half-point the worst of it to avoid any talk of manipulating the numbers or betting against phony numbers.
 
brians

brians

EOG Dedicated
Re: A March to Pointspread Glory

John Kelly said:
I often agree with the person or persons responsible for the Pinnacle openers. I've found Pinnacle's basketball openers are excellent.

Posting a slew of selections at the same time against one set of numbers is not the way to get the best of it. My personal betting often beats my posted numbers. Often times, I'm taking a half-point the worst of it to avoid any talk of manipulating the numbers or betting against phony numbers.
Click to expand...

That's what I assumed. Best to avoid drama regarding the actual numbers you get.

So a lot of these line moves probably aren't surprising you.
 
munson15

munson15

I want winners...
Re: A March to Pointspread Glory

Minnesota was up 44-38 then the next time I checked were down 44-50.
 
F

fifty cint

EOG Dedicated
Re: A March to Pointspread Glory

Jk is in love with this team.Thank God their season is over.I only played um when JK gave um out.
 
B

bernardoincr

EOG Dedicated
Re: A March to Pointspread Glory

784 Pacific -1.5 over UCSB.....:+crying-5
777 San Jose State +2 over Idaho.............:thumbup1
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top