My Monday blog

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
<TBODY><TR><TD style="FONT-FAMILY: arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt" id=yiv1967143261drftMsgContent _yuid="yui_3_1_1_3_1309740985626136">My introduction to serious gambling took place at five Chicago-area racetracks -- Arlington, Sportsman's, Hawthorne, Maywood and Balmoral -- in the late 1970s.

I was 16 when I gained employment at Andy Frain, Inc., a family-owned ushering business headquartered at 1221 North LaSalle Street in downtown Chicago. Andy Frain ushers were paid a starting wage of $3.65 an hour and they were responsible for escorting sports fans and concertgoers to their seats at most every arena and venue in the Windy City.

I ushered events in the company's signature blue-and-gold uniforms at McCormick Place, Arie Crown Theater. Orchestra Hall and the International Amphitheatre before receiving in the mail (no e-mail in 1979) the assignment sheet that would alter the course of my life forever.

On a beautiful August day, I was given day-night doubleheader duties at ARLINGTON PARK from 10 a.m. to 3 p.m. and SPORTSMAN'S PARK from 5:00 p.m. to 10:00 p.m. I still remember the capital letters on the sheets of multi-colored, legal-sized paper used by the assignment desk at Andy Frain.

I also recall my boyhood excitement and unbridled enthusiasm after witnessing thoroughbred racing action at Arlington Park and thrilling harness racing under the lights on the five-eighths mile oval at Sportsman's Park.

I was fascinated by the huge crowds attending the events, captivated by the horses and humans competing every 30 minutes and mesmerized by the bright lights of the toteboard situated in the racetrack's infield with the numbers changing every 60 seconds in clear view of the gamblers milling around the grandstand apron.

I was eager to learn more about the game and thirsty to soak up as much information as possible. Unfortunately, racetracks provided no publications and scant literature for beginning horseplayers looking to gain the necessary knowledge to gamble and win.

(Thirty years later, racetracks remain clueless on the subjects of customer education and player development.)

Early in my horseplaying days, one truth became obvious: those in the know rarely talked and the players talking were either broke or clueless, or broke and clueless.

Misinformation was rampant among horseplayers; therefore, independent study was required to uncover the racetrack secrets which allowed you to win more while risking less.

Listed below are 10 sayings heard throughout my 30-plus years of gambling observation and participation, the first five rules or maxims are widespread quotes with which I largely disagree, while the last five phrases are authentic lines I've embraced and endorsed. Here we go:

You can beat a race but you can't beat the races.

Total nonsense. In fact, I believe the opposite is true. Anything is possible and nothing is guaranteed once the gates open for a single race or one-time event. But the smart horseplayer, armed with a creative wagering strategy and the talent to evaluate a horse's chances of winning against its projected post time price, has an opportunity to overcome the racetrack's onerous 20% takeout and become a winning horseplayer in the long run.

Double your wagers when you have the bookmaker's money in hand.

Legendary gambling figure "Pittsburg Phil" gets credit for this quote and while I agree with the sentiment of the line, I disagree with the semantics. Increase your wagers when winning, but don't indiscriminately double the size of your bets. Doubling your bets while winning is nearly as dangerous as doubling your bets when losing. Oh, by the way, when the bookmaker's money is in your hands, it's no longer the bookmaker's money.

Bet with your head, not over it.

Catchy line promoted by New Jersey's gaming industry to help problem gamblers from self-destruction. For gamblers who are not compulsive in nature, I prefer the line, "Bet to your edge, not over it." And if you have no edge, which is the case for most recreational gamblers, then don't bet.

I'd rather be lucky than good.

Hogwash. Short-term winners utter this line after a lucky score or fortunate hit. Long-term winners understand the fickle nature of Lady Luck, considering luck or chaos or randomness to be the enemy. I'd rather be good than lucky.

Trust your instincts.

This is terrible advice for the beginning gambler. The newcomer either has no instincts or cannot trust the few instincts he possesses because his initial instincts about gambling are usually wrong.

Win with class and lose without excuses.

This is my favorite line for gambling and life in general. Steer clear of gamblers (or people) who claim they're losing (or troubled) because they're unlucky. Many bettors classify their losses as unlucky and credit their fortunate wins to skillful handicapping. They don't understand the vagaries of chance and it's likely they never will.

If you're sweating too much, you're betting too much.

Finding the proper-sized bet for your risk profile/personality is a personal choice. I'm comfortable betting 1-2% of my gambling bank on any one result. Here's the tricky part: on a Saturday during college football and basketball seasons, I could have as many as 10-12 outcomes pending. In such cases, I rarely risk more than 10% of my bank in any single session.

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It's better to know 100% of 50 teams rather than 50% of 100 teams.

Be a specialist. Know what your betting and put your money where your knowledge is. We see gamblers at EOG succeeding by sticking to their specialty (for instance, KingRevolver on tennis, Railbird on college baseball, David Glisan on boxing/MMA, TimelyHero on pro basketball and John Netto on Pac-12 football).

Always be on the lookout for your next wagering opportunity.

The shrewd gambler is constantly searching for his next wager. While watching Week 1 games in the NFL, the smart handicapper already has the lineup of scheduled games for Week 2 in front of him. The sharp bettor sees the handwriting on the wall before there is handwriting on the wall.

Big money is not always smart money, but smart money is always big money.


Five or six-figure wagers are made routinely without the proper research or handicapping edge. There's no direct correlation between the size of the wager and the sophistication of the handicapper. That said, I cannot define or defend gamblers who make $50-100 wagers as smart-money wiseguys. After all, if they're so smart, why aren't their bankrolls -- fattened by successes of the past -- calling for wagers that approach or reach the maximum limits set by the house?


MONDAY'S BEST BET.....Play "OVER" 9 runs in the Kansas City Royals-Chicago White Sox game. The White Sox return to the South Side after scoring only two runs in their last two games at pitcher-friendly Wrigley Field (wind was blowing in both Saturday and Sunday). K.C. recorded a season-high 21 hits in yesterday's 16-8 victory over Colorado at Coors Field. Melky Cabrera and Eric Hosmer each had four hits, while promising rookie Mike Moustakas and steady veteran Jeff Francoeur registered three hits apiece. U.S. Cellular Field plays small when the nightime temperatures in Chicago hit 80 degrees.


COMING FRIDAY.....A list of qualities that make for an interesting and entertaining one-hour sports radio show.
 

Viejo Dinosaur

EOG Master
Re: My Monday blog

Other sayings along the way...

"It is morally wrong to let suckers keep their money"

"The urge to gamble is so universal and its practice so reasonable, that I assume it must be evil"

"Men of action are favored by the goodness of luck"

"The house doesn't beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself"

When I played pool, I was like a pyschiatrist..I cured them of all their daydreams and delusions" (Minnesota Fats)

"The only sure thing about luck is that it will change"

"A gambler never makes the same mistake twice...it is usually three or more times"

"The race track is where windows clean people"
 

Ray Luca

EOG Master
Re: My Monday blog

And one other saying

"If you can't be with the one you love, love the one you're with" :)
 

Almost Allright

GO Bucks!!!
Re: My Monday blog

John Kelly;3189301[B said:
COMING FRIDAY[/B].....A list of qualities that make for an interesting and entertaining one-hour sports radio show.

Being a big fan of radio, I was wondering which radio personalities you looked up to or perhaps patterned your style after?
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: My Monday blog

Being a big fan of radio, I was wondering which radio personalities you looked up to or perhaps patterned your style after?


I generally dislike the egomaniacs (Rome and Patrick) and blowhards (Cowherd and Kornheiser), though Rome and Patrick are wonderful interviewers.

I like the understated excellence of television guys like Chris Fowler and to a lesser extent Rece Davis.

Who are your favorites, AA?
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: My Monday blog

Other sayings along the way...

"It is morally wrong to let suckers keep their money"
"The urge to gamble is so universal and its practice so reasonable, that I assume it must be evil"

"Men of action are favored by the goodness of luck"

"The house doesn't beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself"

When I played pool, I was like a pyschiatrist..I cured them of all their daydreams and delusions" (Minnesota Fats)

"The only sure thing about luck is that it will change"

"A gambler never makes the same mistake twice...it is usually three or more times"

"The race track is where windows clean people"

Gambling is a parasitic business.
 

cassiusclay

EOG Master
Re: My Monday blog

horse racing just blows me away. i enjoy sitting in the stands at delaware park and watching all the degerates gambling their money away, love to hear the conversations, tickets getting thrown in the air, watching them get excited, yelling screaming and then silence.

the movie "let it ride" is slightly more entertaining, slightly.

last summer i sat next to a guy, old school italian guy, suit and tie in 90 degree weather. people were walking up to him and asking him his advice on the horses and we started talking. he asked me why i wasn't betting and i told him i knew nothing about wagering on horses, he smiled and said "smart guy", stood up and said "watch number 3 in the next race". i proved that day to be a dumb guy, the gambler in me wanted to get up and bet the horse, the practical side of me just laughed him off. needless to say #3 won.....turns out the guy owns more than one horse and or is the money man behind them.

i saw him 4 or 5 weeks later, same spot on the bleachers but he had a lady friend with him so i did not want to bother him. racing has been cut back at DP to saturdays, mondays and tuesdays (i think) but the next time i see that guy i am gonna talk to him.

horse guys are a completely different breed of gambler than a sports bettor but they both have one thing in common, they both always think they have an edge that no-one else has.
 
Re: My Monday blog

Here are the ones I hear in the casino. They aren't as expansive and philosophic as John's, but most make you shake your head.

1) " I have a system!"

2) "It's only a half-point. I'm not going back over there for that!"

3) "It's a must game!"

4) " It's a trap game!"

5) "Who do you like tonight" followed by something like, "Well, my guy back East says...."

6) "Where's the cocktail waitress?"

7) "You took my card!" (Had to throw in one BJ one.)

8) "I broke about even."

9) "Look what my eight-teamer pays!"

10) "Baseball, college football, pro football, pro basketball, college basketball, tennis, soccer,etc. (you just fill in the one you have had the most recent success with) is the easiest game to beat!"

And I end with my favorite timeless gambling axiom, "Everything in Las Vegas is free , you just can't afford it." I don't know whom to give credit to for that one.
 

brians

EOG Dedicated
Re: My Monday blog

Great story. Love hearing the backstory to how a gambler got started.
Good quotes too ... Win with class and lose without excuses. ... that's the winner for me.

Combined 15 runners LOB through 5 at The Cell.
 

munson15

I want winners...
Re: My Monday blog

Great story. Love hearing the backstory to how a gambler got started.
Good quotes too ... Win with class and lose without excuses. ... that's the winner for me.

Combined 15 runners LOB through 5 at The Cell.
Ouch, do we have to lose without an excuse if this total doesn't come in, Brian?
 

munson15

I want winners...
Re: My Monday blog

9 is a key number, I played 8.5 in my thread today at -115. Would also be curious what the win rate is when the market disagrees with him. Over such a short sample, I guess it's possible the results are better than to be expected.
 

Heim

EOG Master
Re: My Monday blog

>Arlington<

I quit playing Arlington. The complexion of the entire race changes around the last turn more than any other track. It's a whiplash effect and anything on the outside just whizzes by the speed like they're nailed to the track. Speed seldom sticks at that track no matter the early fractions. One of the few tracks I felt I had no chance.
 

JHU Dad

EOG Dedicated
Re: My Monday blog

Happy with the push. It was nice seeing you yesterday, John. Have a safe and productive trip(s).
 

karamazov

EOG Veteran
Re: My Monday blog

love this one
when the bookmaker's money is in your hands, it's no longer the bookmaker's money.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: My Monday blog

>Arlington<

I quit playing Arlington. The complexion of the entire race changes around the last turn more than any other track. It's a whiplash effect and anything on the outside just whizzes by the speed like they're nailed to the track. Speed seldom sticks at that track no matter the early fractions. One of the few tracks I felt I had no chance.

The Polytrack at Arlington kills the speed horses.

The races on the main track at Arlington look like European turf races with the laterunners exploding in the final furlong.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: My Monday blog

a quote i love - "The less you bet, the more you lose when you win"


I first read that quote on the back of a Sportsman's Park program when I was 16 or 17 years old.

The quote I remember read, "The less you bet in an optimistic situation, the more you lose when you win."

It took me a little time to fully digest what that meant but I completely agree with the thought.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: My Monday blog

Happy with the push. It was nice seeing you yesterday, John. Have a safe and productive trip(s).


My best to you, JHU Dad.

Your wife was smart and funny.

Congratulations on 29 years of marriage.

I've now met three-quarters of the JHU clan (clan with a lowercase "c").

Just one more to go.

P.S. - Hope you found your See's Candies.
 

JHU Dad

EOG Dedicated
Re: My Monday blog

My best to you, JHU Dad.

Your wife was smart and funny.

Congratulations on 29 years of marriage.

I've now met three-quarters of the JHU clan (clan with a lowercase "c").

Just one more to go.

P.S. - Hope you found your See's Candies.

We did find it....much to my sister's delight. And, in 29 years, my wife never complained about a bet...size or result. See you in October. I appreciated the effort you made to come by. Now, get hot with your picks!
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: My Monday blog

We did find it....much to my sister's delight. And, in 29 years, my wife never complained about a bet...size or result. See you in October. I appreciated the effort you made to come by. Now, get hot with your picks!


Easier said than done.

My WNBA selections admittedly have struggled through the first month of the season.
 
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