Getting the best price vs. Beating the Closing Number

[trytrytry]

Re: Getting the best price vs. Beating the Closing Number

I agree with Irish Tim 100% about a DUMMY can bet Pinnacle 50k at post and you don't know if its respected money or not.... Thats why I want to always know who made a line black out on the Donbest screen... Talent is the MOST IMPORTANT thing in this business... Thats for my experience in this business...

how does an average off shore gambler know that sort of info...u have access from your book if the money is hit there but from afar how would a person know who made the wager (smart money or whale money or some average square) in the few seconds you have to decide if you want to hit a moving line? now if we could set up a service or group to pass that info along instantly that would be awesome (could sportsoptions in partnership with the line feeds from the book figure out how to do that?)

 

[High Times]

Re: Getting the best price vs. Beating the Closing Number

To get buybacks every book in existence has moved on air. And because of Don Best the other books see these big books move higher and they move higher because most of the time they are having the same problem.

This is why the closing lines/odds can never be accurate. This is just another reason the lines move another 1/2 point or sometime even a full point. The smart bettor figures out which one of his books moves at post more then the others. They are all different and some of the books will over move to get buy back and they are the books that the bettors can use to get the besr buy back lines/odds.

Every book out there is going to move off of a $50,000 bet near post time no matter who makes the bet!

 

[wantitall4moi]

Re: Getting the best price vs. Beating the Closing Number

I agree with Irish Tim 100% about a DUMMY can bet Pinnacle 50k at post and you don't know if its respected money or not.... Thats why I want to always know who made a line black out on the Donbest screen... Talent is the MOST IMPORTANT thing in this business... Thats for my experience in this business...

seriously the way you guys talk about talent or this guy and that guy it is a miracle any books are still in business. Billy Walters is apparently still the degenerate he always was betting money hand over fist at vegas and offshore despite everyone being scared to death of him but he hasnt bankrupted anyone that I have ever heard, and believe me if he had you would be the first to say it happened.

the guy does what everyone with a brain does he gets the best of it with the least amount of risk. to think he magically bets 50K at post because he has a group of guys telling him the game is a half point off so bet it youre frigging delusional. Then you back that up by saying he is the best because it closed 6.5, and they lost by 7 so that makes the info he got gold. what a crock of shit. But the way you talk that is what you want people to believe.

If I have guys giving me games to bet one way I want a +6 dog winning by 21 at half time and the game by double digits. THATS talent, not getting a win by the skin of your teeth. And BECAUSE you beat the line by half a point that makes you good.

That is why I laugh at these debates, the good/sharp guys are the ones habitually dancing around a line that could have them winning or losing because of a FG. If a guy was that fucking sharp to win consistently by half a point why isnt he betting games where that half point doesnt matter? That is only common sense. Because he would look at a game and say, hmm there is not much margin of error there lets go with this game because it will be a blow out. Basically if youre smart enough to see the minute problems then finding the big ones should be easy.

Well the truth is they arent that good, they guess just like everyone else does they won because they got the very best number, they didnt make it or originate it they just took it when it was available the reason it moved away (and made them look smarter) is because people like to believe fairy tales and followed them and steamed it that far off. If a single lone guy makes a big bet the line might move a little bit. Why move aline if a guy has already bet it? out of respect? No, because they know guys are dumb enough to follow these clowns and thus they try and get as much edge as they can on the money coming in after.

The books still win. Because that so called respected guy is going to lose enough to keep them going and the lambs led to the slaughter by blindly betting the same game despite the line will be the ones really supporting them. Books love steam guys and chasers. they like it better when they can move the price before, but they can survive the first bet and live off the chasing money.

And it doesnt have anything to do with talent or ability it has to do with a little bit of math and a lot of vig.

 

[Bucky]

Re: Getting the best price vs. Beating the Closing Number

To get buybacks every book in existence has moved on air. And because of Don Best the other books see these big books move higher and they move higher because most of the time they are having the same problem.

This is why the closing lines/odds can never be accurate. This is just another reason the lines move another 1/2 point or sometime even a full point. The smart bettor figures out which one of his books moves at post more then the others. They are all different and some of the books will over move to get buy back and they are the books that the bettors can use to get the besr buy back lines/odds.

Every book out there is going to move off of a $50,000 bet near post time no matter who makes the bet!

Why would the book take a 50K bet at post time?

They must think they are getting a good price or it is the side they want it on? You are talking big time approval by somebody other than a ticket writer. This is not a snap your fingers bet. If this information was that valuable - head linesman would have all been rich beyond their wildest dreams a long time ago by getting down themselves someplace in the next breath. It's like Try said a player will never have this edge or ever be able to evaluate Mr. Big Shot late bettor.

Why would a bettor make a 50K bet at post time?

50 k money cannot come from an idiot. The price would have to be the best price it has ever been and this book has the best price of any of the big books that will pay. I would be worried about getting closed out and not getting down if I had been gassed up all week to make the play. A 50k bet this late smells more like a local bookie laying some of his action off or buy back action from a line manipulator but why did he wait so long to get his cover?

BTW, what size accounts do these kind of bettors have? 500K???

 

[IrishTim]

Re: Getting the best price vs. Beating the Closing Number

I did an experiment at another board where I flipped a coin on every game, and was like 52% so with reduced vig I made a small profit, with the MLs I was up quite a bit. And that was for a whole season betting the entire board. Anomaly or lucky flips? Hard to say. One season is still a small sample size, but 256 NFL bets really isnt all that small so it is a hard one to figure out.

Aso did you see the post above with the results? And did it answer the issues with how much the percentages for game pushing have changed or why they might not be as concrete as you would think? I didnt answer the vig question because I think the results speak for themselves, at a 6% rate, anything over 12 poins to get away from a painted 3 is about the max, even though some peopel think it is double that, and most books still charge it.

Yes, so combine all those figures and you have a pretty good approximation of the push rate. Also, quick question, but do you know how to convert push rates to cents?

you are the dumbest smart guy i know

god bless you tim

lol you don't agree with my statement? I guess you should take it up with Carl Friedrich Gauss, the brilliant 19th century mathematician. I'm just borrowing his ideas.

 

[IrishTim]

Re: Getting the best price vs. Beating the Closing Number

If I have guys giving me games to bet one way I want a +6 dog winning by 21 at half time and the game by double digits. THATS talent, not getting a win by the skin of your teeth. And BECAUSE you beat the line by half a point that makes you good.

:doh1

You're not serious with this are you?

 

[rainbow]

Re: Getting the best price vs. Beating the Closing Number

how does an average off shore gambler know that sort of info...u have access from your book if the money is hit there but from afar how would a person know who made the wager (smart money or whale money or some average square) in the few seconds you have to decide if you want to hit a moving line? now if we could set up a service or group to pass that info along instantly that would be awesome (could sportsoptions in partnership with the line feeds from the book figure out how to do that?)

Most squares best late, and trust me I know if its smart or whale money, and yes they do have SQUARES that play high, I'm not going to talk about it on an open forum.... You would be SURPRISED how many SQUARES that bet a ton a money on one game and are born losers...

 

[rainbow]

Re: Getting the best price vs. Beating the Closing Number

Why would the book take a 50K bet at post time?

They must think they are getting a good price or it is the side they want it on? You are talking big time approval by somebody other than a ticket writer. This is not a snap your fingers bet. If this information was that valuable - head linesman would have all been rich beyond their wildest dreams a long time ago by getting down themselves someplace in the next breath. It's like Try said a player will never have this edge or ever be able to evaluate Mr. Big Shot late bettor.

Why would a bettor make a 50K bet at post time?

50 k money cannot come from an idiot. The price would have to be the best price it has ever been and this book has the best price of any of the big books that will pay. I would be worried about getting closed out and not getting down if I had been gassed up all week to make the play. A 50k bet this late smells more like a local bookie laying some of his action off or buy back action from a line manipulator but why did he wait so long to get his cover?

BTW, what size accounts do these kind of bettors have? 500K???

I took bigger bets than 50k at post from a STONED IDIOT....

 

[rainbow]

Re: Getting the best price vs. Beating the Closing Number

seriously the way you guys talk about talent or this guy and that guy it is a miracle any books are still in business. Billy Walters is apparently still the degenerate he always was betting money hand over fist at vegas and offshore despite everyone being scared to death of him but he hasnt bankrupted anyone that I have ever heard, and believe me if he had you would be the first to say it happened.

the guy does what everyone with a brain does he gets the best of it with the least amount of risk. to think he magically bets 50K at post because he has a group of guys telling him the game is a half point off so bet it youre frigging delusional. Then you back that up by saying he is the best because it closed 6.5, and they lost by 7 so that makes the info he got gold. what a crock of shit. But the way you talk that is what you want people to believe.

If I have guys giving me games to bet one way I want a +6 dog winning by 21 at half time and the game by double digits. THATS talent, not getting a win by the skin of your teeth. And BECAUSE you beat the line by half a point that makes you good.

That is why I laugh at these debates, the good/sharp guys are the ones habitually dancing around a line that could have them winning or losing because of a FG. If a guy was that fucking sharp to win consistently by half a point why isnt he betting games where that half point doesnt matter? That is only common sense. Because he would look at a game and say, hmm there is not much margin of error there lets go with this game because it will be a blow out. Basically if youre smart enough to see the minute problems then finding the big ones should be easy.

Well the truth is they arent that good, they guess just like everyone else does they won because they got the very best number, they didnt make it or originate it they just took it when it was available the reason it moved away (and made them look smarter) is because people like to believe fairy tales and followed them and steamed it that far off. If a single lone guy makes a big bet the line might move a little bit. Why move aline if a guy has already bet it? out of respect? No, because they know guys are dumb enough to follow these clowns and thus they try and get as much edge as they can on the money coming in after.

The books still win. Because that so called respected guy is going to lose enough to keep them going and the lambs led to the slaughter by blindly betting the same game despite the line will be the ones really supporting them. Books love steam guys and chasers. they like it better when they can move the price before, but they can survive the first bet and live off the chasing money.

And it doesnt have anything to do with talent or ability it has to do with a little bit of math and a lot of vig.

3
Name me one book that BW is LOSING money to.... I will give you a year to gather your information.... Don't take my word just try booking him... PS: I can arrange that if you are interested... Thats the problem with people like you, all talk and NO ACTION... The old saying money talks and BULLSHIT WALKS...LOL...

 

[Timely Hero]

Re: Getting the best price vs. Beating the Closing Number

Uh, no bookmaker is bankrupted by any individual bettor because he would cut them off far before that could happen. I know one bookmaker personally that has had to cut off multiple Walters beards in the past 3 years. He's not a god, but he picks more winners than losers, and that's not what a bookie wants on his sheet.

 

[rainbow]

Re: Getting the best price vs. Beating the Closing Number

seriously the way you guys talk about talent or this guy and that guy it is a miracle any books are still in business. Billy Walters is apparently still the degenerate he always was betting money hand over fist at vegas and offshore despite everyone being scared to death of him but he hasnt bankrupted anyone that I have ever heard, and believe me if he had you would be the first to say it happened.

the guy does what everyone with a brain does he gets the best of it with the least amount of risk. to think he magically bets 50K at post because he has a group of guys telling him the game is a half point off so bet it youre frigging delusional. Then you back that up by saying he is the best because it closed 6.5, and they lost by 7 so that makes the info he got gold. what a crock of shit. But the way you talk that is what you want people to believe.

If I have guys giving me games to bet one way I want a +6 dog winning by 21 at half time and the game by double digits. THATS talent, not getting a win by the skin of your teeth. And BECAUSE you beat the line by half a point that makes you good.

That is why I laugh at these debates, the good/sharp guys are the ones habitually dancing around a line that could have them winning or losing because of a FG. If a guy was that fucking sharp to win consistently by half a point why isnt he betting games where that half point doesnt matter? That is only common sense. Because he would look at a game and say, hmm there is not much margin of error there lets go with this game because it will be a blow out. Basically if youre smart enough to see the minute problems then finding the big ones should be easy.

Well the truth is they arent that good, they guess just like everyone else does they won because they got the very best number, they didnt make it or originate it they just took it when it was available the reason it moved away (and made them look smarter) is because people like to believe fairy tales and followed them and steamed it that far off. If a single lone guy makes a big bet the line might move a little bit. Why move aline if a guy has already bet it? out of respect? No, because they know guys are dumb enough to follow these clowns and thus they try and get as much edge as they can on the money coming in after.

The books still win. Because that so called respected guy is going to lose enough to keep them going and the lambs led to the slaughter by blindly betting the same game despite the line will be the ones really supporting them. Books love steam guys and chasers. they like it better when they can move the price before, but they can survive the first bet and live off the chasing money.

And it doesnt have anything to do with talent or ability it has to do with a little bit of math and a lot of vig.

My god, ORIGINATORS guess which way the line is going to go...LOL... They guess just like everyone else? You have no CLUE on the other side of the counter... I promise you one thing whenever I RESPECT someone they are 100% a LIFETIME WINNER... Thats my DEFINITION of RESPECT... I have no idea what yours is... But when you made that comment about they GUESS like a square you told me right then and there you are CLUELESS on the other side of the counter... I guess you got lucky to win in your 15yrs of betting, they have guys that would eat you for lunch in this business that you can bank on, and I'm leaving BW out... Have a good night...

 

[Bucky]

Re: Getting the best price vs. Beating the Closing Number

I took bigger bets than 50k at post from a STONED IDIOT....

LOL - I'll take your word for it that there are rich people out there throwing their money around. Makes me wonder how they ever got there money in the first place? OK - you feel you have the advantage in that scenario - sounds like you take that bet from that profile regardless of where you are at with the game - more or less depending on the incompetence of that big bettor for you to win.

OK, the other scenario - known player that you respect wants 50 k on the game very late - very close to post time. Under what circumstances would you take his bet or refuse it or what do you think other linesmakers at other big books would do? I'm especially interested if it makes any difference what side you need at this point as you won't have enough time to get many more bets. And do you think that sharp is getting value from you by betting this late?

 

[High Times]

Re: Getting the best price vs. Beating the Closing Number

There are a lot of bettors who have unreal amounts of money and bet very big. When one of these bettors want to make a $50,000 bet at post time you say "thank you very much" and in most cases you won't even move the number.

These guys lose so much money the last thing you want to do is take money on the opposite side and NOT WIN his money.

If it's a sharp bettor wanting to make that bet you tell him you have limits and he knows them, but if you are loaded on one side of the game and this bettor want to bet the side you need money you might give him a much bigger bet.

Every bet is really a different situation.

Something a lot of bettors have no clue about how and why the books take these big bets in any one situation.

 

[newport2]

Re: Getting the best price vs. Beating the Closing Number

LOL - I'll take your word for it that there are rich people out there throwing their money around. Makes me wonder how they ever got there money in the first place? OK - you feel you have the advantage in that scenario - sounds like you take that bet from that profile regardless of where you are at with the game - more or less depending on the incompetence of that big bettor for you to win.

Very late large wagers are made by: 1) Bookmakers reducing(laying off) a position. 2) Squares(whales) who wager by the clock. 3) Tack-ons and beards trying to fill an order(usually at a bad #). 4) Sharps wagering on last minute weather or injuries. Some of this money never shows up on the screen. Booking isn't an exact science.

 

[rainbow]

Re: Getting the best price vs. Beating the Closing Number

LOL - I'll take your word for it that there are rich people out there throwing their money around. Makes me wonder how they ever got there money in the first place? OK - you feel you have the advantage in that scenario - sounds like you take that bet from that profile regardless of where you are at with the game - more or less depending on the incompetence of that big bettor for you to win.

OK, the other scenario - known player that you respect wants 50 k on the game very late - very close to post time. Under what circumstances would you take his bet or refuse it or what do you think other linesmakers at other big books would do? I'm especially interested if it makes any difference what side you need at this point as you won't have enough time to get many more bets. And do you think that sharp is getting value from you by betting this late?

Under no circumstances would I take a large bet at post from a guy I respect... I would give him whatever our limits are at post ever if I was over loaded on the opposite he was betting...

 

[rainbow]

Re: Getting the best price vs. Beating the Closing Number

Very late large wagers are made by: 1) Bookmakers reducing(laying off) a position. 2) Squares(whales) who wager by the clock. 3) Tack-ons and beards trying to fill an order(usually at a bad #). 4) Sharps wagering on last minute weather or injuries. Some of this money never shows up on the screen. Booking isn't an exact science.

100% accurate post...

 

[rainbow]

Re: Getting the best price vs. Beating the Closing Number

There are a lot of bettors who have unreal amounts of money and bet very big. When one of these bettors want to make a $50,000 bet at post time you say "thank you very much" and in most cases you won't even move the number.

These guys lose so much money the last thing you want to do is take money on the opposite side and NOT WIN his money.

If it's a sharp bettor wanting to make that bet you tell him you have limits and he knows them, but if you are loaded on one side of the game and this bettor want to bet the side you need money you might give him a much bigger bet.

Every bet is really a different situation.

Something a lot of bettors have no clue about how and why the books take these big bets in any one situation.

100% the truth on your whole post...