Round 1, Week 3: ComptrBob vs. Micelli : PICKS INSIDE
- Thread starter KingRevolver
- Start date
Re: Round 1, Week 3: ComptrBob vs. Micelli : PICKS INSIDE
Congrats to Micelli, winning 6-1 to my 3-3-1.
:cocktail
Quick post-mortem of my picks (hopefully it may take some sting out of my losses if you followed):
1. Baylor/Kansas State OVER 65 (169)
Over by 6 points. Not quite the shootout I expected, things slowed down in the 4Q, but went over fairly easily. A good pick.
2. Georgia Tech -10 (131)
Ridiculous push. GT up 45-21 with less than a minute left. NC ST scores making it 45-28. Kickoff to around GT 35 yd line and with 34 secs left, instead of taking a knee, they run a play with the running back fumbling and NC ST runs back for a TD. A very good pick even if it pushed.
3. Florida Int -3.5 (198)
Loses by 7.5 pts. FIU was up 27-17 with around 13 mins left, let Duke get a receiver wide open for a 54 yd gain, Duke scores, 5 mins later FIU QB Carroll fumbles ball when sacked and Duke scores quickly. Probably a poor pick: I underestimated Duke's competitiveness and overestimated FIU's Carroll and Hilton's ability to control the game. FIU's Louisville win doesn't look so impressive now. Not a very good pick.
4. Ball State/Oklahoma OVER 61 (171)
Went over by 7 points. I thought BallSt would score more, pretty lucky that OU scored the last TD and FG to put it over. Pick was not that solid.
5. Titans/Browns UNDER 38.5 (215)
Lost by 6.5 pts. A pretty decent pick even though it lost. One kickoff by the Browns goes out of bounds at the 3, nice going, ball out to the 40! Titans got a short pass that went 80 yds due to horrible tackling. Also they get a 97 yd int return for TD. Browns defense is not great. The Browns put the total over with a 4Q TD.
6. Patriots/Raiders OVER 54.5 (233)
Lost by 4.5 points. Jason Campbell reverts to a "piece of shit" performance so typical of his past history. Stops one drive by throwing a short pass to a "wide open" Patriot in the end zone. Somehow finds 1200 lb Vince Wilfolk (also a Pat) for another int. Not a bad pick, but Raider ineptitude should not be underestimated.
7. Army -7 (128): BEST BET
Wins by 32 points. Tulane gets the first score, but Army dominates from then on. At least I got this pick in the right place ..LOL
Congrats to Micelli, winning 6-1 to my 3-3-1.
:cocktail
Quick post-mortem of my picks (hopefully it may take some sting out of my losses if you followed):
1. Baylor/Kansas State OVER 65 (169)
Over by 6 points. Not quite the shootout I expected, things slowed down in the 4Q, but went over fairly easily. A good pick.
2. Georgia Tech -10 (131)
Ridiculous push. GT up 45-21 with less than a minute left. NC ST scores making it 45-28. Kickoff to around GT 35 yd line and with 34 secs left, instead of taking a knee, they run a play with the running back fumbling and NC ST runs back for a TD. A very good pick even if it pushed.
3. Florida Int -3.5 (198)
Loses by 7.5 pts. FIU was up 27-17 with around 13 mins left, let Duke get a receiver wide open for a 54 yd gain, Duke scores, 5 mins later FIU QB Carroll fumbles ball when sacked and Duke scores quickly. Probably a poor pick: I underestimated Duke's competitiveness and overestimated FIU's Carroll and Hilton's ability to control the game. FIU's Louisville win doesn't look so impressive now. Not a very good pick.
4. Ball State/Oklahoma OVER 61 (171)
Went over by 7 points. I thought BallSt would score more, pretty lucky that OU scored the last TD and FG to put it over. Pick was not that solid.
5. Titans/Browns UNDER 38.5 (215)
Lost by 6.5 pts. A pretty decent pick even though it lost. One kickoff by the Browns goes out of bounds at the 3, nice going, ball out to the 40! Titans got a short pass that went 80 yds due to horrible tackling. Also they get a 97 yd int return for TD. Browns defense is not great. The Browns put the total over with a 4Q TD.
6. Patriots/Raiders OVER 54.5 (233)
Lost by 4.5 points. Jason Campbell reverts to a "piece of shit" performance so typical of his past history. Stops one drive by throwing a short pass to a "wide open" Patriot in the end zone. Somehow finds 1200 lb Vince Wilfolk (also a Pat) for another int. Not a bad pick, but Raider ineptitude should not be underestimated.
7. Army -7 (128): BEST BET
Wins by 32 points. Tulane gets the first score, but Army dominates from then on. At least I got this pick in the right place ..LOL
Re: Round 1, Week 3: ComptrBob vs. Micelli : PICKS INSIDE
I appreciate the honest self-assessment, Bob.
I generally learn more about sports gambling from sharp handicappers after the game than before the game.
Do you still like Oakland's head coach Hue Jackson?
I appreciate the honest self-assessment, Bob.
I generally learn more about sports gambling from sharp handicappers after the game than before the game.
Do you still like Oakland's head coach Hue Jackson?
Ray Luca
EOG Master
Re: Round 1, Week 3: ComptrBob vs. Micelli : PICKS INSIDE
Just listened. The show is really great. Both guys Friday were very well spoken and knew their business. Two thumbs up....
And I really liked Micelli's charity choice too. Gamblers have a bad rep but plenty of us are good people
Just listened. The show is really great. Both guys Friday were very well spoken and knew their business. Two thumbs up....
And I really liked Micelli's charity choice too. Gamblers have a bad rep but plenty of us are good people
Re: Round 1, Week 3: ComptrBob vs. Micelli : PICKS INSIDE
Yes.
Even though the Raiders still have too many penalties, the loss can pretty much be hung on Campbell's 2 ints, several dropped passes and failure to stop the Pats run game. Campbell's ints were complete brain-farts that had nothing to do with coaching unless Jackson was telling him "stand around for a while and then throw the ball right to a Patriot"!
Jackson seems to utilize his players very well. He called some very effective plays including a nice reverse to Jacoby Ford that was diagnosed by the Pats, but went for 30 yds because of Ford's elusiveness. FWIW, the Raiders outgained the Pats, 504 to 409. The Raiders may fail because of a lot of factors, but poor coaching is way, way down on the list.
P.S. The Titans/Browns UNDER missed by 5.5 pts not 6.5.
Yes.
Even though the Raiders still have too many penalties, the loss can pretty much be hung on Campbell's 2 ints, several dropped passes and failure to stop the Pats run game. Campbell's ints were complete brain-farts that had nothing to do with coaching unless Jackson was telling him "stand around for a while and then throw the ball right to a Patriot"!
Jackson seems to utilize his players very well. He called some very effective plays including a nice reverse to Jacoby Ford that was diagnosed by the Pats, but went for 30 yds because of Ford's elusiveness. FWIW, the Raiders outgained the Pats, 504 to 409. The Raiders may fail because of a lot of factors, but poor coaching is way, way down on the list.
P.S. The Titans/Browns UNDER missed by 5.5 pts not 6.5.
Re: Round 1, Week 3: ComptrBob vs. Micelli : PICKS INSIDE
I've seen Bob log some long hours watching football on Saturdays and Sundays.
I've seen Bob log some long hours watching football on Saturdays and Sundays.
KingRevolver
Born Rambler
Re: Round 1, Week 3: ComptrBob vs. Micelli : PICKS INSIDE
Great job, fellas. Congrats to Mic for advancing. :cheers
Great job, fellas. Congrats to Mic for advancing. :cheers
Ching or Dong
EOG Enthusiast
Re: Round 1, Week 3: ComptrBob vs. Micelli : PICKS INSIDE
Am very impressed with Micelli and looking forward to the rest of the contest. When is Trytry try week????? Am ready for his hockey selections.
Am very impressed with Micelli and looking forward to the rest of the contest. When is Trytry try week????? Am ready for his hockey selections.
IrishTim
EOG Dedicated
Re: Round 1, Week 3: ComptrBob vs. Micelli : PICKS INSIDE
As do I (mostly Saturdays) because I'm a fan of college football. But then I basically ignore it once next week's lines come out Sunday night. My belief, as has been well stated (trying to avoid a math vs. feel debate for the nth time), is that you become biased by the games you watched - as it's impossible to effectively watch some 120 teams play. And that you get too caught up in small samples when watching one slate of games. Regardless, I was curious if he felt it necessary to have a subjective opinion on the game derived from those hours logged in front of the TV in order to bet it or if he was fine just going on his model's number.
Great radio show. I found out that Bob and I have more in common than an affinity for objective analysis. We also enjoy food and food in massive quantities.
As do I (mostly Saturdays) because I'm a fan of college football. But then I basically ignore it once next week's lines come out Sunday night. My belief, as has been well stated (trying to avoid a math vs. feel debate for the nth time), is that you become biased by the games you watched - as it's impossible to effectively watch some 120 teams play. And that you get too caught up in small samples when watching one slate of games. Regardless, I was curious if he felt it necessary to have a subjective opinion on the game derived from those hours logged in front of the TV in order to bet it or if he was fine just going on his model's number.
Great radio show. I found out that Bob and I have more in common than an affinity for objective analysis. We also enjoy food and food in massive quantities.
Re: Round 1, Week 3: ComptrBob vs. Micelli : PICKS INSIDE
I finally discovered a weakness in ComptrBob's game: it's the buffet line.
I finally discovered a weakness in ComptrBob's game: it's the buffet line.
Doughy
2
Re: Round 1, Week 3: ComptrBob vs. Micelli : PICKS INSIDE
Except for the in-game wagering, IT. If one never watched the games, one could never do in-game wagering with any success. You agree?
Ray Luca
EOG Master
Re: Round 1, Week 3: ComptrBob vs. Micelli : PICKS INSIDE
I really hate stupid comments
I really hate stupid comments
Re: Round 1, Week 3: ComptrBob vs. Micelli : PICKS INSIDE
No, I don't watch every game I bet. I didn't even watch all of the contest games, in particular I only watched highlights of Ball St/Okla and Titans/Browns.
I do find that when watching a game I can focus on elements that might not be fully expressed in the final stats. Also, watching the game is a pretty essential tool in crafting great 2nd half and in-progress bets. However, it is important not to allow my model to be "whipsawed" by overreacting to one particular game.
No, I don't watch every game I bet. I didn't even watch all of the contest games, in particular I only watched highlights of Ball St/Okla and Titans/Browns.
I do find that when watching a game I can focus on elements that might not be fully expressed in the final stats. Also, watching the game is a pretty essential tool in crafting great 2nd half and in-progress bets. However, it is important not to allow my model to be "whipsawed" by overreacting to one particular game.
Re: Round 1, Week 3: ComptrBob vs. Micelli : PICKS INSIDE
"Whipsawed" was what Micelli did to ComptrBob.
"Whipsawed" was what Micelli did to ComptrBob.
Re: Round 1, Week 3: ComptrBob vs. Micelli : PICKS INSIDE
I'll match my net worth to Micelli's and show you what "whipsawed" really means .... LOL
I'll match my net worth to Micelli's and show you what "whipsawed" really means .... LOL
kirkmuller
EOG Senior Member
Re: Round 1, Week 3: ComptrBob vs. Micelli : PICKS INSIDE
anyone got links to the radio shows?
anyone got links to the radio shows?
Tuckman
Uh Poster
Re: Round 1, Week 3: ComptrBob vs. Micelli : PICKS INSIDE
http://www.eogradio.com/
Sept 30th for the ComputerBob vs Micelli matchup Kirk :cheers
http://www.eogradio.com/
Sept 30th for the ComputerBob vs Micelli matchup Kirk :cheers
IrishTim
EOG Dedicated
Re: Round 1, Week 3: ComptrBob vs. Micelli : PICKS INSIDE
lol to this post and well put in your prior one
lol to this post and well put in your prior one
kirkmuller
EOG Senior Member
Micelli
2
Tomorrow's Newspaper
EOG Master
Re: Round 1, Week 3: ComptrBob vs. Micelli : PICKS INSIDE
Stay classy Bob. I guess having number sense, doesnt give you common sense.
Stay classy Bob. I guess having number sense, doesnt give you common sense.
KingRevolver
Born Rambler
Re: Round 1, Week 3: ComptrBob vs. Micelli : PICKS INSIDE
We need to change his handle to ComptrSob.
We need to change his handle to ComptrSob.
Re: Round 1, Week 3: ComptrBob vs. Micelli : PICKS INSIDE
What's with you guys? Can't you take a joke?
What's with you guys? Can't you take a joke?
KingRevolver
Born Rambler
Re: Round 1, Week 3: ComptrBob vs. Micelli : PICKS INSIDE
I was joking myself, Bobby.
:cheers
I was joking myself, Bobby.
:cheers
WVU
EOG Master
KingRevolver
Born Rambler
Re: Round 1, Week 3: ComptrBob vs. Micelli : PICKS INSIDE
Only problem is Bovi has more in his piggy bank than WVU, so WVU won't be able to use Bob's line. :LMAO
Only problem is Bovi has more in his piggy bank than WVU, so WVU won't be able to use Bob's line. :LMAO
Re: Round 1, Week 3: ComptrBob vs. Micelli : PICKS INSIDE
Dude, next time use "LOL" like I did or a smiley face. I took it as an insult.
Dude, next time use "LOL" like I did or a smiley face. I took it as an insult.
KingRevolver
Born Rambler
Re: Round 1, Week 3: ComptrBob vs. Micelli : PICKS INSIDE
Well, I apologize. My humor is sometimes lost in internet translation.
Well, I apologize. My humor is sometimes lost in internet translation.
WVU
EOG Master
Re: Round 1, Week 3: ComptrBob vs. Micelli : PICKS INSIDE
does he? Some good buys up there right now.
does he? Some good buys up there right now.