My Monday blog

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
I posted four winners from five selections this past weekend, including a solid play on the Minnesota Lynx -6 over the Atlanta Dream in Game 1 of the WNBA Finals. All five recommended plays beat the closing number as money appeared for each of the five selections. Here are my gambling notes from a busy day of Sunday NFL action:

---The Detroit Lions are the story of the season. The team is 4-0 for the first time since 1980. Better yet, the Lions have won three road games and now head home to Ford Field for three consecutive games (Chicago, San Francisco and Atlanta) before a rejuvenated fan base. Twenty-three-year-old Matthew Stafford is a pocket passer with one of the biggest arms in the NFL. Twenty-six-year-old Calvin Johnson, measured six-feet-five and three-quarters at the NFL combine, is the best wide receiver in the game today, sporting eight touchdown catches in four games. The Lions feature an aggressive defensive line that should improve as the season progresses.

---Downgrade Tony Romo and the entire Dallas coaching staff after the Cowboys blew a 24-point lead with 25 minutes left. Some questionable play-calling combined with some poor decisions by Romo led to the historic collapse. The biggest blown lead in Cowboys' history could be a season-defining loss for Dallas. A Week 5 bye and a Week 6 road game against New England will provide more problems for America's team.

---New Orleans defensive coordinator Gregg Williams confused rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert in the Saints' 23-10 victory over Jacksonville. The Jags have registered only 39 points in four games. Gabbert never looked comfortable in yesterday's game, completing only 16 of 42 passes.

---The 1-3 Eagles blew a 23-3 third-quarter lead as San Francisco scored the game's final 21 points to beat the well-supported Dream Team (opened 9, closed 10) at Lincoln Financial Field. Philly has been outscored 36-0 in the fourth quarter of its three losses. Check out the video of Frank Gore's 12-yard touchdown run late in the fourth quarter. I counted six or seven teammates who were charging toward the endzone to escort/congratulate the hard-running Gore. Head coach Jim Harbaugh exposes the deficiencies of former 49ers' coach Mike Singletary.

---The Rams are 0-4 straight up and against the spread. St. Louis has been outscored 113-46 in its first four games. Worse yet, the Rams have been outscored during the first half of their first four games, 79-16. St. Louis has allowed 18 sacks this season. Steve Spagnuolo looks more like a defensive coordinator than a head coach.

---Maybe Matt Hasselbeck still has game. The 36-year-old veteran quarterback is 3-1 as Tennessee's starting quarterback and the Titans may catch a break in Week 5 if Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (foot injury) is unable to play this Sunday at Heinz Field.

---Smallest crowd ever at Paul Brown Stadium saw the Bengals post a mild upset over the previously undefeated Buffalo Bills. Rookie quarterback Andy Dalton is a gutty performer.

---In a battle of winless teams saddled by overmatched coaches (Todd Haley and Leslie Frazier), the Chiefs defeated the Vikings, 22-17. Someone had to win.

---Carolina rookie quarterback Cam Newton is now 3-1 ATS. The former Auburn star perfoms well operating out of the shotgun in a no-huddle offense against a prevent defense. Newton led touchdown drives in the final minute of the fourth quarter twice in the last three weeks to reward Carolina supporters.

---Costly game at Reliant Stadium as stars from both teams (Ben Roethlisberger of the Steelers and Andre Johnson of the Texans) suffered injuries which could cause them to miss time.

---Atlanta barely held on to defeat Seattle, 30-28, after leading 27-7 early in the third quarter. The Falcons opened as low as a 4-point favorite and closed as high as a 6.5-point choice. The Seahawks have been outscored 57-13 in the first half of their first four games.

---Tom Couglin's Giants are 3-1 after a come-from-behind victory over the Cardinals at the site of New York's Super Bowl victory in early 2008. Osi Umenyiora made his season debut. Justin Tuck missed yesterday's game with a neck injury.

---Miami's bye week could be the right time to part ways with head coach Tony Sparano. The Dolphins reside in the highly-competitive AFC East where Miami has lost five of its last seven division games. The Fish are 14-22 in their last 36 games under Sparano and Henne's hurt.

---Green Bay picked up from where it left off last season. Aaron Rodgers threw for a career-best 408 yards in a romping 49-23 victory over Denver. The undefeated Packers are better than they were last season.

---The Patriots have scored 30 or more points in 13 consecutive regular-season games. New England's Jerrod Mayo suffered an MCL sprain. Mayo is the team's leading tackler responsible for calling out the team's defensive signals. Oakland gained 504 yards but scored only 19 points. Downgrade Jason Campbell of the Raiders. I lost my "over" bet. Upon further review, I could have played New England's team total "over" 30 points and avoided Oakland's erratic quarterback. Woulda, coulda, shoulda...

---The Jets and Ravens produced 51 points with only one touchdown recorded from the line of scrimmage. The teams combined for five return touchdowns (two interception returns, two fumble returns and a kickoff return), an NFL first.


WEDNESDAY'S BEST BET.....Game 2 of the WNBA Finals provides an excellent opportunity for the Atlanta Dream. Erika De Souza returns to the team after spending time in Brazil helping her national team qualify for the 2012 Olympics. De Souza averages 12 points per game and seven rebounds per game and she provides a big body (6'5") to help Atlanta in the paint and on the boards. In a game that should go to the wire, the points (guessing we'll catch at least 6) should come into play. I like the speed advantage for Atlanta (Harding over Whalen and McCoughtry over Moore). Zig-zag theory also in play here as I always look to support quality teams off a playoff loss.

COMING FRIDAY
.....Updates of both the $10,000 EOG Invitational and EOG's Grand Challenge.
 

JHU Dad

EOG Dedicated
Re: My Monday blog

Great weekend, John, for you and many of the posters. I was afraid of the Raiders being flat after a strong start...and not contributing much to the total. I guess I now realize that saying that Campbell is every bit Mark Sanchez' equal, as I saw printed last week, was not necessarily a compliment.
 

mrbowling300

EOG Dedicated
Re: My Monday blog

Here in Detroit, the Tigers have seemed to taken a back seat to the Lions. Just goes to show you, football is king. While the Lions were making their 2nd consecutive comeback from 20 points down, Max Scherzer was pitching a no hitter. None-the-less, most TV's were tuned to Lions/Cowboys in the Detroit area. Sports talk radio in the Detroit area has been dominated by Lions talk, with very little mention of the Tigers. Calvin Johnson has caught 2 or more TD's in 3 straight games, I believe trying to become the first player since Chris Carter to do it in 4 straight come next MNF. I will report to JK from Ford Field next week.
 

munson15

I want winners...
Re: My Monday blog

Congrats on the 4 for 5 performance over the weekend. Should we play Atlanta as soon as the line comes out, or wait for you to post a play based on said number?

p.s. tough loss for me on the nyj/BAL total you referenced.
 

O'Royken

EOG Dedicated
Re: My Monday blog

San Francisco

All those Mammoth's they drafted on their offensive line are finally coming togethor.

Those fuckers were finally playing in rythm.

O line won that game yesterday.
 

kickitGOOD

EOG Enthusiast
Re: My Monday blog

"Erika De Souza returns to the team after spending time in Brazil helping her national team qualify for the 2012 Olympics. De Souza averages 12 points per game and seven rebounds per game and she provides a big body (6'5") to help Atlanta in the paint and on the boards."

Any thoughts about team chemistry, as they blew out Indiana twice without De Souza. (Granted Catchings got hurt) Can't imagine leaving in the middle of the playoffs was a popular decision among teammates.
 

mrbowling300

EOG Dedicated
Re: My Monday blog

I stand corrected, Calvin Johnson has done it 4 straight games, tying Chris Carter's record...he's going for the record of 5 straight next monday night.

Here in Detroit, the Tigers have seemed to taken a back seat to the Lions. Just goes to show you, football is king. While the Lions were making their 2nd consecutive comeback from 20 points down, Max Scherzer was pitching a no hitter. None-the-less, most TV's were tuned to Lions/Cowboys in the Detroit area. Sports talk radio in the Detroit area has been dominated by Lions talk, with very little mention of the Tigers. Calvin Johnson has caught 2 or more TD's in 3 straight games, I believe trying to become the first player since Chris Carter to do it in 4 straight come next MNF. I will report to JK from Ford Field next week.
 

FISHHEAD

EOG Master
Re: My Monday blog

---Smallest crowd ever at Paul Brown Stadium saw the Bengals post a mild upset over the previously undefeated Buffalo Bills. Rookie quarterback Andy Dalton is a gutty performer.




Did not know this.............wow!
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: My Monday blog

San Francisco

All those Mammoth's they drafted on their offensive line are finally coming togethor.

Those fuckers were finally playing in rythm.

O line won that game yesterday.

An offensive line in rhythm, I like that thought, O'Royken.

What's more, the Gore TD and ensuing celebration came late in the fourth quarter when the 49ers were just hitting their stride.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: My Monday blog

"Erika De Souza returns to the team after spending time in Brazil helping her national team qualify for the 2012 Olympics. De Souza averages 12 points per game and seven rebounds per game and she provides a big body (6'5") to help Atlanta in the paint and on the boards."

Any thoughts about team chemistry, as they blew out Indiana twice without De Souza. (Granted Catchings got hurt) Can't imagine leaving in the middle of the playoffs was a popular decision among teammates.

I hope not.

Minny killed Atlanta on the boards in Game 1 as the Dream seemingly had no answer for Brunson.

Augustus is hard to guard, too.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: My Monday blog

Congrats on the 4 for 5 performance over the weekend. Should we play Atlanta as soon as the line comes out, or wait for you to post a play based on said number?

p.s. tough loss for me on the nyj/BAL total you referenced.

Any number in Game 2 higher than 5 offers value.

As for the Jets-Ravens game, Sanchez and Flacco were a combined 21-for-66.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: My Monday blog

Here in Detroit, the Tigers have seemed to taken a back seat to the Lions. Just goes to show you, football is king. While the Lions were making their 2nd consecutive comeback from 20 points down, Max Scherzer was pitching a no hitter. None-the-less, most TV's were tuned to Lions/Cowboys in the Detroit area. Sports talk radio in the Detroit area has been dominated by Lions talk, with very little mention of the Tigers. Calvin Johnson has caught 2 or more TD's in 3 straight games, I believe trying to become the first player since Chris Carter to do it in 4 straight come next MNF. I will report to JK from Ford Field next week.

Thanks for the note, Keith.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: My Monday blog

Great weekend, John, for you and many of the posters. I was afraid of the Raiders being flat after a strong start...and not contributing much to the total. I guess I now realize that saying that Campbell is every bit Mark Sanchez' equal, as I saw printed last week, was not necessarily a compliment.

Looking forward to seeing you later this month, Richard.

Send my best to JHU Kid.
 

asportsguy

EOG Veteran
Re: My Monday blog

John Kelly “thinks” he had a good weekend.
<o:p> </o:p>
Mark Moneymakers college write-up games THRU- SAT
He was 5-1 this last weekend that’s outstanding.
<o:p> </o:p>
Me(asportsguy) was 3-0 on my posted college picks this weekend.
Overall on college football Saturday was 5-1. <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Ohio</st1:State></st1:place> st. -3 was my only loser. Really believe THE OHIO ST. was much better they are not.

 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: My Monday blog

Even more incredible to do it on the road with a young QB.

Shame on Dallas.

Jason Garrett's play-calling with a 24-point lead was atrocious.

Tony Romo's second-half execution was miserable.

And the Dallas defense was a sieve in the second half.

Interesting to note: Detroit scored its game-winning touchdown (Stafford to Johnson) on a free play as Dallas had 12 men on the field.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: My Monday blog

John Kelly “thinks” he had a good weekend.
<o:p></o:p>
Mark Moneymakers college write-up games THRU- SAT
He was 5-1 this last weekend that’s outstanding.
<o:p></o:p>
Me(asportsguy) was 3-0 on my posted college picks this weekend.
Overall on college football Saturday was 5-1. <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:State w:st="on">Ohio</st1:State></st1:place> st. -3 was my only loser. Really believe THE OHIO ST. was much better they are not.


5-1 is better than 4-1.

Nice job, asportsguy.
 

Integrity

EOG Master
Re: My Monday blog

Good read, JK.

Don't think I've read you speak this much about football before.

Thought you were mainly baseball/wnba.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: My Monday blog

Good read, JK.

Don't think I've read you speak this much about football before.

Thought you were mainly baseball/wnba.

I like to follow the NFL and NCAAF, but I find my biggest edges come in MLB totals, NCAAB sides and WNBA.
 

munson15

I want winners...
Re: My Monday blog

I like to follow the NFL and NCAAF, but I find my biggest edges come in MLB totals, NCAAB sides and WNBA.
I seem to remember you mentioning this before, so, note to self--------downgrade JK's foots picks and continue playing full units on hoops and bases.:cheers
 
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