Past Posting at Santa Anita?

[Flamingo kid]

There have been some very unusual 'betting' situations at SA in the first few days, but today's pick 6 takes the cake. You all know how hard it is to hit ONE winner, but 6 winners is 6 times as hard, right?

So, the late pick 4 today at Santa Anita pays 348.00 for 2 dollars. Take those 4 races and add 2 more races to the mix and guess what the pick 6 pays for 2 dollars?

283.00

The pick 6 pays over 60 dollars LESS than the pick 4.

You get 60 dollars less for having 2 more winners. Seems pretty fishy to me.

 

[Mr. Pink]

Re: Past Posting at Santa Anita?

I noticed that too. They are different betting pools, so there could be some irregularity, but that is an awfully low Pick 6 payout.

 

[John Kelly]

Re: Past Posting at Santa Anita?

Winners of the first two legs of the Pick 6 paid $2.80 and $4.00.

Still...

 

[Flamingo kid]

Re: Past Posting at Santa Anita?

The only thing i could think of with this scenario is that in a pick 6, for most people, they can't really 'spread', so, there is not as many dollars on wild combinations, people who invested 48 dollars singled the first 2 winners on their tickets. With the pick 4, even a 48 dollar ticket has 96 possible combinations, so, in a pick 4 for the same investment, you can go 4, 5 or 6 deep in one of the legs.

Today's pick 6 was caught by a lot of people who put in tickets that were 48 dollars or under.

With all that said, i'd still investigate this payoff.

 

[trytrytry]

Re: Past Posting at Santa Anita?

the shocker in this is that the late pick 4 paid that much
50 CENT Pick 4 (6-11-3/8/9-10) 4 Correct Paid: $87.20

5.60, 5, 9, 9.40 were the winning horses

did a 3-5 horse get beat in the opener race 6? that can lead to a much bigger than expected pick 4 ticket if a front leg odds on horse gets beat..

 

[PO69]

Re: Past Posting at Santa Anita?

Back in my dogtrack days, I hit 2 pick 6's.One of them had a pretty big carryover for a dogtrack pick 6, i think that it was around $140,000. Well I bet a ticket of I think $256 I think. I cant remember exactly, but in one race I had 4 dogs. An "underdog" did win in that race but pretty much favorites won in every other race. Well I won the pick 6, but it only paid something like $2000 or so because another 50 people or so hit it as well. I think that I won 5 of 6 like 7 times for around $250 each. But I was so close to winning a huge amount that day. In one of the races, I had 2 dogs and one of them went off at around 15 to 1. Well he was beat by a nose by the 1/2 favorite or so. I can still remember that race to this day and it was 18 years ago! I certainly would not have won the entire pool, but certainly no more than 2 other people would have had that dog in their wheels.$50,000 would have been a lot of money for me at that time too.

 

[2W2P2S]

Re: Past Posting at Santa Anita?

The pick 4 doesn't pay a consolation, that's the difference. When it is that chalky, and you have 2 free squares in the first 2 races, you'll see this. Just doesn't happen that often.

 

[WVU]

Re: Past Posting at Santa Anita?

why do you guys throw your money away on horses on dogs? If you tell me you are winning I am telling you you are lying. Unless you are corrupt. 12io4j2w90

 

[2W2P2S]

Re: Past Posting at Santa Anita?

why do you guys throw your money away on horses on dogs? If you tell me you are winning I am telling you you are lying. Unless you are corrupt. 12io4j2w90

You could hit a 7 iron in one So Cal neighborhood and cover several people making their living from only thoroughbreds. I don't know one in So Cal that can support themselves strictly betting sports without supplementing poker. I'm not saying there isn't. And I certainly know it can be done. Like anything in life, I've never had the philosophy that because I can't do something, it can't be done.................I can tell I'm not going to convince you of anything. No worries, but you're dead wrong.

Oh, BTW- The computer groups betting horses make Billy Walters look like a street pawn.

 

[WVU]

Re: Past Posting at Santa Anita?

the track takeout just seems way too high to overcome. I guess there is room in the larger multi-race payouts, but I just cant see it betting individual races

 

[2W2P2S]

Re: Past Posting at Santa Anita?

the track takeout just seems way too high to overcome. I guess there is room in the larger multi-race payouts, but I just cant see it betting individual races

If you equate beating the closer in sports as a positive correlation for success, you'd find that those that win betting horses do this consistently in ways far greater than can be done in sports. Closing out to off odds horses of 4/5 or EV, and getting 4/1, 5/1 and more on your wagers is an everyday occurence. Do you think you can lose if you're getting 10X the off odds on your highest investments?

Handicapping isn't near enough. Creative ticket structure is the most important aspect of betting horses. Gonna sound like a tool here, but just for emphasis going to repeat what I just talked about in an email with regards to a sports wager we were debating. I could never, ever have success betting just to win in horse racing, and I don't know anybody better than me......once again I'm not going to say it can't be done, I just find it too difficult.

 

[WVU]

Re: Past Posting at Santa Anita?

Hell, I don't think sportswagering is +EV either, unless you go about it very differently than most. I don't think anyone can just pick winners and overcome the juice, but if you combine it with line watching, bonus hunting, good modeling, and staying ahead of the line moves then it surely is possible.

 

[John Kelly]

Re: Past Posting at Santa Anita?

The pick 4 doesn't pay a consolation, that's the difference. When it is that chalky, and you have 2 free squares in the first 2 races, you'll see this. Just doesn't happen that often.

Right answer.12io4j2w90

 

[Flamingo kid]

Re: Past Posting at Santa Anita?

Right answer.12io4j2w90

If you bet 368 to win on an even money shot you cash for 736. If you bet 736 on a horse who pays 2.80 you cash for 1030.40 so, if you take the pick 4 payoff and figure out the parlay by adding the first two winners, the parlay price is over a grand. I'm not sure consos make a projected payoff of 1030 into 268 but I'm no math professor so I could be wrong.

 

[2W2P2S]

Re: Past Posting at Santa Anita?

If you bet 368 to win on an even money shot you cash for 736. If you bet 736 on a horse who pays 2.80 you cash for 1030.40 so, if you take the pick 4 payoff and figure out the parlay by adding the first two winners, the parlay price is over a grand. I'm not sure consos make a projected payoff of 1030 into 268 but I'm no math professor so I could be wrong.

No Pick 6 ticket only gets paid the amount of the pick 6. Nobody cashed for just $268. They cashed for 268 + Conso combo's. This is one of the big diffences. If every conso combo of 3's in the pick 4 got paid yesterday the pick 4 would have shown a simlar payout to the pick 6........starting a horizontal sequence with a 1/5, 2/5, 1/2 favorite is hardly ever a good wager from a value standpoint. The subsequent horizontals often pay the same or more without the risk of losing the 1st leg.