Horse racing 101, lets go to the videotape.

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
We have a decent amount of horseplayers here, so i thought i'd open up the classroom and go over some videotape. I'm going to give you a horse to watch and i'll explain what you're watching and how to interpret what you saw.

For those of you who don't have access to free video tape replays, you can sign up for a free account at calracing.com and watch the replay (and the head on) of the race i'm going to talk about.

The focus is going to be on tomorrow's (Saturday Jan 21) 9th race at Golden Gate fields and we're going to look at a horse named Simply Sharp.

Simply Sharp ran his one and only lifetime start on Jan 2 of this year. He raced in maiden allowance class which was race 7 on that day.

Right off the bat, i notice the 'low profile' barn attracting a high profile rider. In this colt's (gelding's) first lifetime start, he broke from post 1 with today's rider Aaron "cool rider" Gryder. Gryder just breaks this horse out of the gate, and keeps him under a snug hold the entire way. Aaron 'chirps' to him in the lane and goes to a moderate hand ride (to show the judges he's trying) but in reality, he's just giving this horse a race. (in racetrack parlance, giving a horse 'a race' just means he's prepping him for a future date. Is this allowed? Not really, but its like travelling in the NBA, its not really allowed, but you can get away with it fairly often) Aaron never 'lets him loose' at any point. Simply Sharp finishes 'with interest' under the line and gallops out with energy. SS has a low center of gravity, appears professional and focused and races in a straight line. The connections got exactly what they wanted.

I believe that Simply Sharp isnt' really 'dropping' in class because i feel that THIS is the race they are pointing for to begin with. This is a cheap sale purchase who was always destined to be in this class and his first start was just a prep, Gryder never 'showed him off' to the public. He never showed him off because they knowingly entered the horse into a race he couldnt win and in a class where they could put a 'bad line' on the horse.

Now, the idea of this post isnt to alert you to blindly bet on Simply Sharp because he's some sort of sure winner. The idea is to try and point out to you some ideas that might help you get into the heads of the connections and see what they're doing. Part of the 'selecting winners' process is to really bet on the right horse in the right race on the right day and not just select 'live' horses and pray.

Now, for all we both know, Simply Sharp could be a complete dog who just can't run, a lot can happen on the way to the winners circle. I like that Gryder takes the call back off a poor past performance line for a low profile barn, that makes me think Gryder liked this horse first time out and wanted to ride him back in this class on this day.

Selecting winners in horse racing is much like selecting winners in pro sports...its not enough just to bet on the best team, you need the right situation to present itself. In horse racing, its really important to bet on horses who are 'ready' for their race that particular day.

Buying a young horse, breaking him from yearling status and getting him ready for the races takes time, a lot of patience, a lot of luck, an excellent trainer with a great game plan and a bunch of money to pay bills on a horse who's not racing. For Simply Sharp to get to this exact point in time, in this race, with a nice sneaky prep under his belt and retaining a top jockey means the connections did everything they could and put this horse into the right situation. Now, if you are the connections (or, betting on his nose) its just time to cross your fingers and hope.

Win, lose or draw, Simply Sharp is the type of horse you want to try and sniff out when you are handicapping, a horse who is entered with a purpose.

You can find horses like this on a regular basis in racing....unfortunately, you have to spend a ton of time sifting thru videotapes. Its just like anything in life, you need to work to have some success.
 
J

joeybagadonuts

Guest
Re: Horse racing 101, lets go to the videotape.

Interesting.

I will be watching to see how SS does tomorrow.

How about posting your next 20-30 horse plays in this thread to see how you do given you claim to be a winning horse player?

I like your analysis, but I've seen plenty of horse players who do tons of research on just one track and pick their spots and still lose money overall.

Either way, GL
 

Viejo Dinosaur

EOG Master
Re: Horse racing 101, lets go to the videotape.

Back in your corner FK...this is exactly the kind of thread that reads well on a sports forum...

I hope you win with this horse....a win validates all the hard work you put in....good luck:cheers
 

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
Re: Horse racing 101, lets go to the videotape.

Thank you Joseph and VD, appreciate that.

Its hard to win for sure, i'm hoping this is a long run winning play, i'm not sure i'd be on this one at 6-5 or something really short, i dont know what the final price is going to be, gotta be a smart shopper on that one.

I know the thread is kind of long, but i know there are a few 'students' of horse racing here, hopefully they find this interesting as a 'teach to fish' kind of thread.

Horse racing is humbling, with all the best laid plans, sometimes the horse can go out and embarrass you and make you feel foolish. I think long run wise, this type of horse is +ev.

Lets get lucky.
 

mazeltrick

EOG Addicted
Re: Horse racing 101, lets go to the videotape.

would not take a short price on this type of horse. fwiw, my clocker liked the first time starter, #4 Diamond of Blue. i will not be touching this event with a 10 foot pole.
 

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
Re: Horse racing 101, lets go to the videotape.

would not take a short price on this type of horse. fwiw, my clocker liked the first time starter, #4 Diamond of Blue. i will not be touching this event with a 10 foot pole.

Well, besides the point of whether its a good bet or not, the jist of the post was to try and teach the fisherman to fish.....and not necessarily catch the fish FOR them.

If this horse wins, its gravy, but the idea still remains the same.
 

Chalky White

EOG Enthusiast
Re: Horse racing 101, lets go to the videotape.

would not take a short price on this type of horse. fwiw, my clocker liked the first time starter, #4 Diamond of Blue. i will not be touching this event with a 10 foot pole.

I dont even gots no clocker. But Im rooting for FK
 

mazeltrick

EOG Addicted
Re: Horse racing 101, lets go to the videotape.

If you're interested in teaching people who to fish, then tell them what price is worth playing on this pick. he's 3/1 and 3rd choice on the m/l. is 3/1 a fair price? what about the other horses entered as well- how do they factor into your analysis? just curious.
 

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
Re: Horse racing 101, lets go to the videotape.

If you're interested in teaching people who to fish, then tell them what price is worth playing on this pick. he's 3/1 and 3rd choice on the m/l. is 3/1 a fair price? what about the other horses entered as well- how do they factor into your analysis? just curious.

This is a writeup about video analysis. I'm not even suggesting that people play this horse. If you want to bet it and think its a good price, than go ahead and play. If you dont like it, go ahead and bet against. Its up to each individual person to decide what price is good for them. If he's even money, i'd probably lean to NOT making a wager. If he's 3-1, i would be more apt to consider it. Its up to you if you even want to wager or not.
 

cheapseats

EOG Master
Re: Horse racing 101, lets go to the videotape.

Win or lose, put the tape of the race in here, and let's discuss the merits of the effort from horse to tote....
 

mazeltrick

EOG Addicted
Re: Horse racing 101, lets go to the videotape.

It's clearly not just about video analysis- you have trainer intent, jockey intent, and other factors your pithy write up. good luck professor. i will audit another course.
 

cheapseats

EOG Master
Re: Horse racing 101, lets go to the videotape.

It's clearly not just about video analysis- you have trainer intent, jockey intent, and other factors your pithy write up. good luck professor. i will audit another course.

All true, but after all, this is racing 101, maybe you would like to prof racing 201 or beyond, just sayn
 

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
Re: Horse racing 101, lets go to the videotape.

It's clearly not just about video analysis- you have trainer intent, jockey intent, and other factors your pithy write up. good luck professor. i will audit another course.

Thank You Maze, appreciate the audit!
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: Horse racing 101, lets go to the videotape.

Thanks to both FK and mazeltrick for their input here at EOG.

I think they're playing the same game but playing at different levels.

I liked the gist of FK's post but I agree with mazeltrick about the lack of information regarding the competition in the race and the price of the featured horse.
 

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
Re: Horse racing 101, lets go to the videotape.

SS finished a strong 3rd at 7-2. He got a bad start, hopped in the air and lost a few lengths, and finished willingly while galloping out a ton.(you can see the gallop out on the replay) The top 2 runners 'kept going' this turned up to be a strongish race for the class.
 

mazeltrick

EOG Addicted
Re: Horse racing 101, lets go to the videotape.

would not take a short price on this type of horse. fwiw, my clocker liked the first time starter, #4 Diamond of Blue. i will not be touching this event with a 10 foot pole.

hey- we almost had the exacta. good luck the rest of the way
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: Horse racing 101, lets go to the videotape.

would not take a short price on this type of horse. fwiw, my clocker liked the first time starter, #4 Diamond of Blue. i will not be touching this event with a 10 foot pole.

Wow!


[TABLE="class: runner"]
<TBODY>

4

[TD="class: horseName"]Diamond of Blue [/TD]
<TD class=coloredBackground>

$17.80

[TD="class: coloredBackground"]$8.40 [/TD]

$5.80


<!-- Choose the saddle cloth text color -->

5

[TD="class: horseName"]Marino's Wild Cat [/TD]
<TD class=coloredBackground>

[TD="class: coloredBackground"]$4.00 [/TD]

$3.60


<!-- Choose the saddle cloth text color -->

6

[TD="class: horseName"]Simply Sharp [/TD]
<TD class=coloredBackground>

[TD="class: coloredBackground"] [/TD]

$4.00


</TBODY>[/TABLE]
<!-- Fractions -->Times in 5ths: :22 :45[SUP]1[/SUP] :57[SUP]1[/SUP] 1:03[SUP]3[/SUP]
Times in 100ths: :22.01 :45.28 :57.26 1:03.65
<!-- Winning Info --><!-- Using runner[0] because they are order in the stored procedure by official position -->Winning Trainer: McCanna Tim | Owner: Bahna, Jr. Victor

<!-- Scratch Info --><!-- Loop over each scratch --><!-- Claim info --><!-- Loop over each claim --><!-- Display -->Claimed: Diamond of Blue by Wright Blaine D. (Maryanski)

<!-- Also ran info --><!-- Loop over each also ran --><!-- Display -->[TABLE="class: others"]
<TBODY>

Unplaced horses listed in order of finish.


Also ran: Deep Reflection, Socks Don't Match, Bartok's Pride and Localsucess


</TBODY>[/TABLE]
<!-- Payoff info --><!-- Loop over each payoff --><!-- c:set var="tempPayoffString" value="$2 ${payoff.wagerName} (${payoff.winningNumbers}) ${payoff.numberOfRights} Correct Paid: ${payoffAmountCurrency} ${payoff.wagerName} pool ${totalPoolAmountCurrency}"/--><!-- c:set var="tempPayoffString" value="$2 ${payoff.wagerName} (${payoff.winningNumbers}) ${payoff.numberOfRights} Correct Paid: ${payoffAmountCurrency} ${payoff.wagerName} pool ${totalPoolAmountCurrency}"/--><!-- c:set var="tempPayoffString" value="$2 ${payoff.wagerName} (${payoff.winningNumbers}) ${payoff.numberOfRights} Correct Paid: ${payoffAmountCurrency} ${payoff.wagerName} pool ${totalPoolAmountCurrency}"/--><!-- c:set var="tempPayoffString" value="$2 ${payoff.wagerName} (${payoff.winningNumbers}) ${payoff.numberOfRights} Correct Paid: ${payoffAmountCurrency} ${payoff.wagerName} pool ${totalPoolAmountCurrency}"/--><!-- c:set var="tempPayoffString" value="$2 ${payoff.wagerName} (${payoff.winningNumbers}) ${payoff.numberOfRights} Correct Paid: ${payoffAmountCurrency} ${payoff.wagerName} pool ${totalPoolAmountCurrency}"/--><!-- c:set var="tempPayoffString" value="$2 ${payoff.wagerName} (${payoff.winningNumbers}) ${payoff.numberOfRights} Correct Paid: ${payoffAmountCurrency} ${payoff.wagerName} pool ${totalPoolAmountCurrency}"/--><!-- c:set var="tempPayoffString" value="$2 ${payoff.wagerName} (${payoff.winningNumbers}) ${payoff.numberOfRights} Correct Paid: ${payoffAmountCurrency} ${payoff.wagerName} pool ${totalPoolAmountCurrency}"/--><!-- c:set var="tempPayoffString" value="$2 ${payoff.wagerName} (${payoff.winningNumbers}) ${payoff.numberOfRights} Correct Paid: ${payoffAmountCurrency} ${payoff.wagerName} pool ${totalPoolAmountCurrency}"/--><!-- c:set var="tempPayoffString" value="$2 ${payoff.wagerName} (${payoff.winningNumbers}) ${payoff.numberOfRights} Correct Paid: ${payoffAmountCurrency} ${payoff.wagerName} pool ${totalPoolAmountCurrency}"/--><!-- c:set var="tempPayoffString" value="$2 ${payoff.wagerName} (${payoff.winningNumbers}) ${payoff.numberOfRights} Correct Paid: ${payoffAmountCurrency} ${payoff.wagerName} pool ${totalPoolAmountCurrency}"/--><!-- c:set var="tempPayoffString" value="$2 ${payoff.wagerName} (${payoff.winningNumbers}) ${payoff.numberOfRights} Correct Paid: ${payoffAmountCurrency} ${payoff.wagerName} pool ${totalPoolAmountCurrency}"/--><!-- Display -->[TABLE="class: others"]
<TBODY>

$1 Exacta (4-5) Paid: $38.90, $2 Quinella (4-5) Paid: $42.20, $1 Trifecta (4-5-6) Paid: $129.20, $1 Superfecta (4-5-6-7) Paid: $265.70, $2 Daily Double (4-4) Paid: $40.80 Daily Double Pool $20,615.00 , $1 Pick 3 (6-4-4) 3 Correct Paid: $146.30 Pick 3 Pool $25,517.00 , $2 Pick 6 (3/5-7-2/4-6-2/4-4) 5 Correct Paid: $45.20 Pick 6 Pool , $2 Pick 6 (3/5-7-2/4-6-2/4-4) 6 Correct Paid: $4,124.40 Pick 6 Pool $7,721.00 , $1 Place Pick All (9 OF 9) Paid: $2,433.00, $1 Pick 4 (2/4-6-2/4-4) 4 Correct Paid: $336.80 Pick 4 Pool , 50 CENT Pick 5 (7-2/4-6-2/4-4) 5 Correct Paid: $469.70 Pick 5 Pool


</TBODY>[/TABLE]
 

mazeltrick

EOG Addicted
Re: Horse racing 101, lets go to the videotape.

Truthfully, I try not to play these types of races unless I like a serious price. It seemd like this was a weak bunch for the level so I would instinctively look to the new faces. Now, the firster that ended up winning was the right bet, not because it won, but at the price it was the smart bet- sharp barn, sharp works, etc. the gelding that FK ended up liking would have been my 3rd choice, with a rough fair value of 5/1 or so.

Again, not a race I played, but choosing a horse is only half the battle. It took me a lot longer to learn how to bet efficiently than it did picking winners.
 

Viejo Dinosaur

EOG Master
Re: Horse racing 101, lets go to the videotape.

Truthfully, I try not to play these types of races unless I like a serious price. It seemd like this was a weak bunch for the level so I would instinctively look to the new faces. Now, the firster that ended up winning was the right bet, not because it won, but at the price it was the smart bet- sharp barn, sharp works, etc. the gelding that FK ended up liking would have been my 3rd choice, with a rough fair value of 5/1 or so.

Again, not a race I played, but choosing a horse is only half the battle. It took me a lot longer to learn how to bet efficiently than it did picking winners.

Thank you...12io4j2w90
 

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
Re: Horse racing 101, lets go to the videotape.

Mazeltrick...In your opinon, was 3/1 a fair price? Could you have played it?

7/2 was a fair price all things considered. I would have liked to seen my colt get a better start, but Maze's clocker's horse ran lights out. This race turned up a bit stronger than i would have liked, the runner up and 3rd place finisher might not be maidens much longer.
 

2W2P2S

EOG Dedicated
Re: Horse racing 101, lets go to the videotape.

This is a writeup about video analysis.[/QUOTE

Saw this thread and decided to take a look. I'm telling you this in all sincerity. If what you wrote is what you took away from that replay, you should never watch another replay again. You have no clue what you're looking at.
 

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
Re: Horse racing 101, lets go to the videotape.

This is a writeup about video analysis.[/QUOTE

Saw this thread and decided to take a look. I'm telling you this in all sincerity. If what you wrote is what you took away from that replay, you should never watch another replay again. You have no clue what you're looking at.


hahaha, ok.

Maybe you ought to teach me what i did wrong, i'd appreciate it.
 

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
Re: Horse racing 101, lets go to the videotape.

Well, making stuff up would be the 1st thing I'd work on if I were you. There was "no interest" under the wire, and no gallop out with interest.

Tell me at exactly what minute and second of the replay you saw this horse gallop out?

131-133 of the pan shot.

He also galloped out huge today too, you can see it, its all over the tape.

Maybe it was just a coincidence that the horse galloped out like the bomb today after i commented that he galloped out nice last time?

To me, a horse doesnt have to 'pass horses' on the gallop out for me to like what i see. This horse was hitting the ground well, was on the incorrect lead, but he still had nice 'bounce' coming out while under a hold at the line (in his first start)

I could also have been there live and seen something that wasnt on tape...you didnt know that i wasnt there live and got a note that wasnt seen on tape. This time i wasnt there live, but i could have been.
 

2W2P2S

EOG Dedicated
Re: Horse racing 101, lets go to the videotape.

131-133 of the pan shot.

He also galloped out huge today too, you can see it, its all over the tape.

Maybe it was just a coincidence that the horse galloped out like the bomb today after i commented that he galloped out nice last time?

To me, a horse doesnt have to 'pass horses' on the gallop out for me to like what i see. This horse was hitting the ground well, was on the incorrect lead, but he still had nice 'bounce' coming out while under a hold at the line (in his first start)

I could also have been there live and seen something that wasnt on tape...you didnt know that i wasnt there live and got a note that wasnt seen on tape. This time i wasnt there live, but i could have been.

This is too good to be true. You start a thread about watching video tape, and comment about "interest at the wire, and galloping out with energy" when none of that was shown in the replay, you change your story.
People here may have actually wagered on something that never was shown on that replay.

Now, in a thread talking about replay analysis you say this:

I could also have been there live and seen something that wasnt on tape...you didnt know that i wasnt there live and got a note that wasnt seen on tape. This time i wasnt there live, but i could have been.

I'm not exactly sure who you're trying to impress, but anybody with a clue can see what a fraud you are. And I feel sorry for anybody that would have risked money on a complete lie.
 

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
Re: Horse racing 101, lets go to the videotape.

I just told you where in the replay it was shown, maybe you should actually read what i wrote before you comment?

As far as people wagering, thats got nothing to do with me, you bet at your own risk, any posts i make are strictly for entertainment purposes only, you bet and lose, thats on you, not me.
 

2W2P2S

EOG Dedicated
Re: Horse racing 101, lets go to the videotape.

I just told you where in the replay it was shown, maybe you should actually read what i wrote before you comment?

Oh no, I read it. And saw that 2 seconds. LOL.
You started a "101" thread about replays, and then just made stuff up. Anybody can see that. Then you add to the lie with the "maybe I was there and saw it live".
You can stand in front of a bunch of 3 years olds and yell 3 x 3 = 8 and try and look smart. Keep doing that here if that works for you.
 
J

joeybagadonuts

Guest
Re: Horse racing 101, lets go to the videotape.

[B said:
2W2P2S[/B];3357424]
This is too good to be true. You start a thread about watching video tape, and comment about "interest at the wire, and galloping out with energy" when none of that was shown in the replay, you change your story.
People here may have actually wagered on something that never was shown on that replay.

Now, in a thread talking about replay analysis you say this:



I'm not exactly sure who you're trying to impress, but anybody with a clue can see what a fraud you are. And I feel sorry for anybody that would have risked money on a complete lie.

Interesting.

I would like to see if other horse players like yourself who have a clue think the same of what FK said.

I've always maintained there is 0% chance that FK wins betting horses.
 

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
Re: Horse racing 101, lets go to the videotape.

Oh no, I read it. And saw that 2 seconds. LOL.
You started a "101" thread about replays, and then just made stuff up. Anybody can see that. Then you add to the lie with the "maybe I was there and saw it live".
You can stand in front of a bunch of 3 years olds and yell 3 x 3 = 8 and try and look smart. Keep doing that here if that works for you.
.

Thanks for coming in here and acting like an ass and shitting up my thread. Appreciate it. You obviously have no idea what im talking about. You asked me where on the tape did i see what i saw and when i told you, you got all competitive on me in a bi-polar kind of way. Video watching is all about interpretation, you asked me what and where i saw what i saw and i was nice enough to tell you. I dont know why youre so in my face, did you forget to take your xanax today?
 

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
Re: Horse racing 101, lets go to the videotape.

[B said:
2W2P2S[/B];3357424]

Interesting.

I would like to see if other horse players like yourself who have a clue think the same of what FK said.

I've always maintained there is 0% chance that FK wins betting horses.
. Its actually not all that interesting, this stuff is just over his head apparantely and because i posted a thread trying to be constructive and helpful, he goes postal on me. Im not sure what jst happened to be honest.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: Horse racing 101, lets go to the videotape.

FK starts a thread to educate amateur horseplayers and then finds out he's the amateur.

Hang in there, FK.

I suspect Mazeltrick and 2W2P2S are two of the sharpest horseplayers in the country.
 
J

joeybagadonuts

Guest
Re: Horse racing 101, lets go to the videotape.

FK starts a thread to educate amateur horseplayers and then finds out he's the amateur.

Hang in there, FK.

I suspect Mazeltrick and 2W2P2S are two of the sharpest horseplayers in the country.

EXPOSED.

:LMAO:LMAO
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Re: Horse racing 101, lets go to the videotape.

I just watched the replay from Golden Gate Fields (7th race on January 2) and it seems to me that FK saw something that wasn't there.
 

Viejo Dinosaur

EOG Master
Re: Horse racing 101, lets go to the videotape.

Really think FK meant well....sharp horse players and analysts got the best of him....don't let it bother you FK, just listen and learn....
 
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