Why didn't NE let the giants score with 2 mins remaining????

[BigDaddy]

Re: Why didn't NE let the giants score with 2 mins remaining????

Holy shit, there are people who actually would think trying to stop NE from scoring a TD with 1 minute and 1 TO is easier than kicking an extra point?

IT

in the NFL how many TD's have been scored at the end of football game with 1minute left and 1 TO with the ball at the 20 ?

 

[IrishTim]

Re: Why didn't NE let the giants score with 2 mins remaining????

Certainly more than missed extra points on a percentage basis

http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/extra-point-conversion-pct?date=2011-02-07

 

[BigDaddy]

Re: Why didn't NE let the giants score with 2 mins remaining????

Certainly more than missed extra points on a percentage basis

well how many

any site we can get that info from?

 

[IrishTim]

Re: Why didn't NE let the giants score with 2 mins remaining????

well how many

any site we can get that info from?

You would need to parse it from an NFL play-by-play database. It happened in the SF-NO game a couple weeks ago which is 1 more than missed extra points (after a timeout no less) than occurred these playoffs. Advanced NFL stats does have one that generates its WPs (the flaw of course is it assumes every team begins the game with a 50-50 shot of winning). According to the data, NYG scoring the touchdown decreased their chances of winning by 10%. That's giving NYG a 95% chance of converting the extra point when in reality it is closer to 98-99% since you can pick the hash mark and actually make it shorter than an extra point.

Then when you factor in that NE has an elite offense with an all-time great QB known for last minute drives, the Patriots were certainly more likely to score with 1 minute and 1 TO than the average NFL team.

All things considered, Bradshaw not dropping for a kneel on the goal-line probably took NYG's chances of winning from 98% to about 80%.

 

[BigDaddy]

Re: Why didn't NE let the giants score with 2 mins remaining????

SF game was like a 1:30 sec

 

[IrishTim]

Re: Why didn't NE let the giants score with 2 mins remaining????

Okay sure, this is where curve smoothing comes into play. SF didn't use their timeout (which is worth 40 seconds) in the last 1:30.

If you start getting into the minutiae you miss the entire point of looking at historical data. It's obvious to anyone with a cursory knowledge of football that kicking an extra point is easier than stopping arguably the greatest QB in history from going 80 yards in 1 minute with 1 TO.

 

[High Times]

Re: Why didn't NE let the giants score with 2 mins remaining????

Okay sure, this is where curve smoothing comes into play. SF didn't use their timeout (which is worth 40 seconds) in the last 1:30.

If you start getting into the minutiae you miss the entire point of looking at historical data. It's obvious to anyone with a cursory knowledge of football that kicking an extra point is easier than stopping arguably the greatest QB in history from going 80 yards in 1 minute with 1 TO.

Mean while

The Giants did stop Brady and did it pretty easy.

Making your %'s meaningless AGAIN!

Brady had very little chance to score a TD.......

Your stats don't say that though.

:houra

 

[High Times]

Re: Why didn't NE let the giants score with 2 mins remaining????

You would need to parse it from an NFL play-by-play database. It happened in the SF-NO game a couple weeks ago which is 1 more than missed extra points (after a timeout no less) than occurred these playoffs. Advanced NFL stats does have one that generates its WPs (the flaw of course is it assumes every team begins the game with a 50-50 shot of winning). According to the data, NYG scoring the touchdown decreased their chances of winning by 10%. That's giving NYG a 95% chance of converting the extra point when in reality it is closer to 98-99% since you can pick the hash mark and actually make it shorter than an extra point.

Then when you factor in that NE has an elite offense with an all-time great QB known for last minute drives, the Patriots were certainly more likely to score with 1 minute and 1 TO than the average NFL team.

All things considered, Bradshaw not dropping for a kneel on the goal-line probably took NYG's chances of winning from 98% to about 80%.

The Ravens just missed one of these CAN'T miss FG's !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

And it kept them from winning a Super Bowl.........

But let's just ignore that FACT!!!!!!!!!!

:finger004

 

[High Times]

Re: Why didn't NE let the giants score with 2 mins remaining????

FACTS

A lot of posters here ignore facts and that is what makes them #^$$^%##

The right play WAS scoring the TD as the Giants proved on Sunday!!!!!

Can't get much more obvious than that!

:houra

 

[IrishTim]

Re: Why didn't NE let the giants score with 2 mins remaining????

God you're really fucking dumb.

Even if Brady had a 5% ("very little" to your simple mind) chance of scoring, it's still optimal to kick the FG.

Your issue is that you're acting like if it was the right move, then NE should have won which is not the case at all. It's about making the decision that improves your chances of winning, but certainly being up 2 with your opponent in the red zone with 2 minutes left - there is no way play call to guarantee winning.

AT BEST, New England could have given themselves maybe a 75-80% chance if they let NYG score right away from the 25 yard line. So regardless of what happened, the Giants were still a massive favorite once they marched down the field.

 

[IrishTim]

Re: Why didn't NE let the giants score with 2 mins remaining????

The Ravens just missed one of these CAN'T miss FG's !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

And it kept them from winning a Super Bowl.........

But let's just ignore that FACT!!!!!!!!!!

:finger004

What does a rushed 32 yard FG two weeks ago have to do with a 19 yard FG after a timeout (so the K is not rushed)?

 

[BigDaddy]

Re: Why didn't NE let the giants score with 2 mins remaining????

IT

baltimore could have used a TO

i was surprised they did not

 

[High Times]

Re: Why didn't NE let the giants score with 2 mins remaining????

What does a rushed 32 yard FG two weeks ago have to do with a 19 yard FG after a timeout (so the K is not rushed)?

Everything

Amazing you can't figure that out :+clueless

 

[IrishTim]

Re: Why didn't NE let the giants score with 2 mins remaining????

IT

baltimore could have used a TO

i was surprised they did not

Me too. There was really poor in-game coaching that game from both New England and Baltimore.

Everything

Amazing you can't figure that out :+clueless

lol one of of my friend missed an extra point in high school. That's about as relevant as what you're quoting.

 

[High Times]

Re: Why didn't NE let the giants score with 2 mins remaining????

God you're really fucking dumb.

Even if Brady had a 5% ("very little" to your simple mind) chance of scoring, it's still optimal to kick the FG.

Your issue is that you're acting like if it was the right move, then NE should have won which is not the case at all. It's about making the decision that improves your chances of winning, but certainly being up 2 with your opponent in the red zone with 2 minutes left - there is no way play call to guarantee winning.

AT BEST, New England could have given themselves maybe a 75-80% chance if they let NYG score right away from the 25 yard line. So regardless of what happened, the Giants were still a massive favorite once they marched down the field.

Just because some math nerds say "percentage wise" the right thing to do is run out the clock and kick the (NEVER MISS) extra point FG does not even begin to make it the right decision.

The decision is this ......

You TAKE the LEAD by 4 GUARANTEED!!!!!!!!

OR

You fall down on the 1 and don't mind trying a FG where if you MISS you lose the Super Bowl.

I will take the 4 point lead every time!!!!!!!!

Those odds are 100%

First choice is you are winning the Super Bowl by 4 and it would take a miracle for the other team to go 80 yards in 1 minute to beat you!

The other choice is to take your chance on a FG where YOU ran out the clock so if you miss you just GAVE the Super Bowl AWAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Again not 1 player wants to lose a game like that especially a Super Bowl game.

That is a MISTAKE that would never go away.

No I will take my chances on stopping ANY QB from going 80 yards with 1 minute left.

That's how football is played

 

[joeybagadonuts]

Re: Why didn't NE let the giants score with 2 mins remaining????

No wonder HT is a losing gambler.

He thinks like a total square. No shock there.

 

[raiders72001]

Re: Why didn't NE let the giants score with 2 mins remaining????

You would need to parse it from an NFL play-by-play database. It happened in the SF-NO game a couple weeks ago which is 1 more than missed extra points (after a timeout no less) than occurred these playoffs. Advanced NFL stats does have one that generates its WPs (the flaw of course is it assumes every team begins the game with a 50-50 shot of winning). According to the data, NYG scoring the touchdown decreased their chances of winning by 10%. That's giving NYG a 95% chance of converting the extra point when in reality it is closer to 98-99% since you can pick the hash mark and actually make it shorter than an extra point.

Then when you factor in that NE has an elite offense with an all-time great QB known for last minute drives, the Patriots were certainly more likely to score with 1 minute and 1 TO than the average NFL team.

All things considered, Bradshaw not dropping for a kneel on the goal-line probably took NYG's chances of winning from 98% to about 80%.

IT - those numbers by AdvancedNFLStats aren't even close to being accurate. I'll play MLs into you next year with a theoretical hold of 5% based on their probability of winning play by play.

 

[raiders72001]

Re: Why didn't NE let the giants score with 2 mins remaining????

NE should have let them score the play before if they were going to use Ol?.

 

[raiders72001]

Re: Why didn't NE let the giants score with 2 mins remaining????

Those stats include the biggest pressure kick that there is in the game winning FG in the Super Bowl?

They include a lot of garbage kicks with the defense not caring and the offense having no pressure.

 

[steak tartar]

Re: Why didn't NE let the giants score with 2 mins remaining????

NE should have let them score the play before if they were going to use Ol?.

..agree.........ole is the right call but im not gonna get into that....but they shouldve done it the play before like you said

 

[royalfan]

Re: Why didn't NE let the giants score with 2 mins remaining????

God you're really fucking dumb.

This times 1000

 

[raiders72001]

Re: Why didn't NE let the giants score with 2 mins remaining????

As any sports commentator, coach, or player will tell you, the NFL championship is about more than athletic ability—it’s a mental game, too

http://www.bu.edu/today/2012/super-bowl-mentality/

 

[royalfan]

Re: Why didn't NE let the giants score with 2 mins remaining????

Plus, if not mistaken NY also would have had the luxury of kneeling on bad snap or hold and trying it again. That makes percentage go up also, as if those aren't right you instruct holder to knee it and do again. Again, I believe this was possible but didn't go back and clarify.

 

[raiders72001]

Re: Why didn't NE let the giants score with 2 mins remaining????

Anyone ever compare the stats of game winning or tieing field goals in a Super Bowl compared to a FG at any time during the regular season?

 

[IrishTim]

Re: Why didn't NE let the giants score with 2 mins remaining????

Anyone ever compare the stats of game winning or tieing field goals in a Super Bowl compared to a FG at any time during the regular season?

Probably higher. I don't recall any Super Bowl-winning FGs being missed in the last ten years.

 

[2W2P2S]

Re: Why didn't NE let the giants score with 2 mins remaining????

He just made a longer FG on the road in OT on a wet field with wind in the NFC championship game. He could have kicked an xtra point under the SB conditions with his off leg.

 

[raiders72001]

Re: Why didn't NE let the giants score with 2 mins remaining????

[TABLE="width: 550"]
<tbody>

[TD="class: headline_green, colspan: 2"]Nate Kaeding in 2010 AFC Divisional Playoffs[/TD]

Chargers kicker Nate Kaeding is the most accurate kicker in NFL history, as he holds a record 86.5 field goal percentage. The former Pro Bowler missed three key field goals on the day, including a crucial 40-yarder in the closing minutes of the forth quarter.

</tbody>[/TABLE]

.............

 

[raiders72001]

Re: Why didn't NE let the giants score with 2 mins remaining????

[TABLE="width: 550"]
<tbody>

[TD="class: headline_green, colspan: 2"]Gary Anderson in 1999 NFC Championship[/TD]

Gary Anderson is one of the greatest kickers in NFL history, as he played 23 years in the league, appeared in four Pro Bowls and made over 80 percent of his field goal attempts. With his team leading 27-20 with just over two minutes remaining, Anderson had a chance to put the game away and send the Vikings to the Super Bowl with a 38-yard field goal. Anderson botched the kick, though, and gave the Falcons the ball back with just a few minutes remaining. Atlanta then drove down the field for a game-tying touchdown in the final seconds and later won on a field goal in overtime.

</tbody>[/TABLE]

.............

 

[raiders72001]

Re: Why didn't NE let the giants score with 2 mins remaining????

[TABLE="width: 550"]
<tbody>

[TD="class: headline_green, colspan: 2"]Doug Brien in 2005 AFC Divisional Playoffs[/TD]

Jets fans are still hating on Doug Brien today after his colossal collapse in the 2005 playoffs. The kicker missed two potential game-winning field goals with under two minutes remaining in the fourth quarter, one from 47 yards and the other from 43 yards. Brien's misses kept the game alive, and the Steelers ended up taking it 20-17 in overtime.

</tbody>[/TABLE]

...........

 

[raiders72001]

Re: Why didn't NE let the giants score with 2 mins remaining????

[TABLE="width: 550"]
<tbody>

[TD="class: headline_green, colspan: 2"]Billy Cundiff in the 2012 AFC Championship[/TD]

The Ravens season was brought to a heartbreaking ending today, as kicker Billy Cundiff choked at the worst possible time. Baltimore managed to compete with the high-powered Patriots all game, and they set up a 32-yard field goal to send the game to overtime in the final moments. Unfortunately, Cundiff shanked it right and cost the Ravens a chance at a Super Bowl berth.

</tbody>[/TABLE]

..........

 

[royalfan]

Re: Why didn't NE let the giants score with 2 mins remaining????

None a glorified extra point in a dome with capability to try again on bad or misheld snap.

 

[BigDaddy]

Re: Why didn't NE let the giants score with 2 mins remaining????

Plus, if not mistaken NY also would have had the luxury of kneeling on bad snap or hold and trying it again. That makes percentage go up also, as if those aren't right you instruct holder to knee it and do again. Again, I believe this was possible but didn't go back and clarify.

they would be kicking it on 4th down

 

[High Times]

Re: Why didn't NE let the giants score with 2 mins remaining????

The part of the discussion that all the math nerds want to IGNORE is this....

You can tell the posters who never played sports at a high level.

You never, NEVER, NEVER leave the game in the hands of your FG team!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Baltimore just did it and lost!

There is nothing more to say on this subject except to enter math into this Super Bowl game is the last thing anybody on this planet should be doing. Score the TD.... play the game right and defend for 1 more minute.

This math crap that everyone wants to include in sports is a complete joke. None of these math coach's or manager has ever won a thing using math. If anything they have held back their teams!

Billy ball....... They made a NERD movie about him? What the fuck did he ever win?

The dude never even won the AL championship and they want to make it out that he is some genius just because he can add 1 + 1 ......

Adding 1 + 1 is something any retard can do..... It doesn't make you more important or RIGHT.

Good day

 

[2W2P2S]

Re: Why didn't NE let the giants score with 2 mins remaining????

The part of the discussion that all the math nerds want to IGNORE is this....

You can tell the posters who never played sports at a high level.

You never, NEVER, NEVER leave the game in the hands of your FG team!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Yeah, Eli Manning was screaming for Bradshaw to go down, and Bradshaw knew he made a mistake...........but those guys don't play at the higher level. They'd be mocked non-stop for that decision in the Intraterrestrial Football League.

Baltimore just did it and lost!

It's not even close to the same situation when determining win probabilities. Amazing a world champ in game bettor can't figure that out.

 

[High Times]

Re: Why didn't NE let the giants score with 2 mins remaining????

What's sad about this whole thing is 30 years ago you would have never heard 1 team in the NFL ever deciding it was/is better to NOT score a TD in any situation.

Now in the new fucked up world gays are cool and nerds are smart.

And because nerds can't play sports they pull this "better way" of playing sports. Using stupid math based results to make you decisions in the future.

No thanks nerds

Keep the crap to yourselves!

You don't know sports and shouldn't waste everybody's time fucking up the way sports are played.

Get lost

:houra

 

[High Times]

Re: Why didn't NE let the giants score with 2 mins remaining????

Yeah, Eli Manning was screaming for Bradshaw to go down, and Bradshaw knew he made a mistake...........but those guys don't play at the higher level. They'd be mocked non-stop for that decision in the Intraterrestrial Football League.



It's not even close to the same situation when determining win probabilities. Amazing a world champ in game bettor can't figure that out.

Looks like the Giants won

Don't know why all you experts can't come to grip with this FACT

:LMAO

 

[raiders72001]

Re: Why didn't NE let the giants score with 2 mins remaining????

Yeah, Eli Manning was screaming for Bradshaw to go down, and Bradshaw knew he made a mistake...

why was Eli the only one? Coughlin and Gilbride didn't tell anyone. It was after a time out and no one said a word about not scoring until Eli said it in the middle of the play.

 

[High Times]

Re: Why didn't NE let the giants score with 2 mins remaining????

Only a math nerd could come up with it's better to NOT score than to score......

:+clueless

No wonder sports is beginning to suck.

 

[High Times]

Re: Why didn't NE let the giants score with 2 mins remaining????

why was Eli the only one? It was after a time out and no one said a word about not scoring until Eli said it in the middle of the play.

Eli is probably 1 of those people who bought into this "It's better to NOT score" thing.

Again

These math nerds are right about the %'s, but who really gives a fuck!

Play the game the right way.

Score the TD

and

Keep playing great defense!

That's how you win.

Not by kicking FG's

 

[2W2P2S]

Re: Why didn't NE let the giants score with 2 mins remaining????

why was Eli the only one? Coughline and Gilbride didn't tell anyone. It was after a time out and no one said a word about not scoring until Eli said it in the middle of the play.

No idea. Bad coaching. Same way coaches and QB's don't remind RB's and WR's not to go out of bounds when wanting to run clock.

New England obviously thought giving NY the TD was giving them a better chance to win. Those Patriot nerds! Never played the game at a high level!!!!!