"Off The Derby Trail" thread

Ray Luca

Ray Luca

EOG Master
Re: "Off The Derby Trail" thread

"Now you see what we put these horses through for our own enjoyment." ....Ron McAnally
 
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Discreet Cat

EOG Dedicated
Re: "Off The Derby Trail" thread

Pool One individual entry Mr. Bowling appears to be off the Derby Trail as well. After running last-of-11 in the Risen Star, trainer Larry Jones told DRF that Mr. Bowling will bypass the Louisiana Derby:

"I don't see a reason to run him against Mark Valeski again. We can find another spot."

Worth noting that Jones trains both horses, so he may just be keeping them apart, but based on the comment above, he isn't exactly exuding confidence where Mr. Bowling is concerned.
 
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Re: "Off The Derby Trail" thread

i wish the horses good health and no problems but actually If every great horse other than Union Rags leaves the train im super fine with that...
 
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Re: "Off The Derby Trail" thread

Sad to hear Out Of Bounds has been sidelined and off the Derby trail after suffering an injury in this morning's workout. Surgery likely.
 
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Re: "Off The Derby Trail" thread

field players looking pretty decent as of now Have to say losing 2 of top 5 so early is great news for the possible value of the FIELD.,...

[h=3]Union Rags remains unanimous choice in Triple Crown poll[/h]
Posted: Monday, March 05, 2012 6:08 PMby Ron Parker

Not surprisingly after a comparatively quiet weekend for Triple Crown contenders, Union Rags remained the unanimous choice of THOROUGHBRED TIMES voters for the second consecutive week after his sparkling three-year-old debut in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) on February 26 at Gulfstream Park.

Although Hansen redeemed himself from his loss in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) with a dominant victory in the Gotham Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct last Saturday and moved up from third-place to second in this week?s poll, the Tapit colt was no threat to Union Rags, whose 150 points were well ahead of Hansen?s 109 points.

Voters rank their top ten selections each week leading up to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1), with a first-place vote worth ten points, a second-place vote worth nine, and descending to one point for a tenth-place vote.

As is the case each year, injuries began to have an impact on the voting. Algorithms, ranked fifth last week, is on the bench because of a popped splint in his right front leg, and voters scrambled to adjust their ballots on Monday when it was learned that Out of Bounds, fourth in last week?s poll, will miss the Triple Crown after suffering a non-displaced condylar fracture in his left front ankle after a Monday morning workout at Santa Anita Park. Trainer Eoin Harty indicated that it did not appear to be a career-threatening injury.

The loss of two of the previous top five and the resulting upward movement of others in the poll led to three newcomers to the top 20. Castaway, winner of a division of the Southwest Stakes (G3) on February 20 at Oaklawn Park and on last week?s ?others? list, moved up to 14th in the voting. Newcomers My Adonis, second to Hansen in the Gotham, and John Battaglia Memorial Stakes winner State of Play also made their first appearance in the top 20.

The Road to the Triple Crown should begin heating up thisSaturday with the running of the San Felipe Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita Park, the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) at Tampa Bay Downs, and the Swale Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park all on the agenda.

To view the complete results of the THOROUGHBRED TIMES Road to the Triple Crown poll, click here.​
 
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2W2P2S

EOG Dedicated
Re: "Off The Derby Trail" thread

Sky Kingdom, Fly Lexis Fly out.

These are just 2 examples of where the guys that bet the field lose value on thier wagers as well with scratches. There are only a finite number of horses contained in the field with any prayer of winning the derby, and when the top hopefuls of the "all others" get scratched, it hurts their value. It's not as recognizable, so most just ignore it.
 
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Discreet Cat

EOG Dedicated
Re: "Off The Derby Trail" thread

I'm not sure Fly Lexis Fly was ever really on the Derby Trail to begin with. He still has not recorded a single workout this year...
 
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Discreet Cat

EOG Dedicated
Re: "Off The Derby Trail" thread

2W2P2S said:
The original goal was the derby. You don't have any futures with him?
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Yeah, i bet him 4 times between the dates of Nov 26 and Jan 15. But once he arrived in the U.S. in early January and then went missing for over a month, you had to assume that something had happened to him. Even in the recent TVG video that was posted here, when Drysdale was asked about a potential prep race, he said, "It depends how quickly he comes around." Comes around from what, exactly? I was hoping that he had gotten past whatever it was that was keeping him out of action, and based on his almost-unheard-of foundation (along with the Peruvian graded earnings), i held out some tiny hope that they might be able to get him into the Derby off a single prep. Not ideal, of course, but at least within the realm of possibility. You'll note that he STILL hadn't turned up yet even after the TVG piece, however.

Btw, i'm wondering if Factorial simply tracked Drysdale down for this feature based on what's been written about Fly Lexis Fly on these very pages (and much thanks to him, if that was indeed the case). I found it extremely odd that a foreign horse with no workouts suddenly showed up in a TVG feature after (apparently) sitting around the barn doing nothing for the past couple of months.
 
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2W2P2S

EOG Dedicated
Re: "Off The Derby Trail" thread

Discreet Cat said:
Btw, i'm wondering if Factorial simply tracked Drysdale down for this feature based on what's been written about Fly Lexis Fly on these very pages (and much thanks to him, if that was indeed the case). I found it extremely odd that a foreign horse with no workouts suddenly showed up in a TVG feature after (apparently) sitting around the barn doing nothing for the past couple of months.
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I was wondering the exact same thing. Even a while ago on his radio show when JK asked TT about the horse.......Toby's response was "Who?"
 
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Discreet Cat

EOG Dedicated
Re: "Off The Derby Trail" thread

As for the KDFW, i really don't understand why someone with your acumen is so vehemently opposed to the Field entry. Obviously the individual entries are close to 100% unplayable (at least in the first two pools), while the Field is at the very least worth considering. I didn't bet it, because i thought the price was a bit low, but i could certainly see doing it. Historically speaking, it's been a good investment, even as the odds have declined in recent years.

I do believe there is sometimes value on individual entries in Pool Three, if they have already completed their final prep race, and you have a reasonable idea of what their chances on raceday might be (should they make it to the gate). At that point there's only a few weeks left, and with only a couple of workouts between the two points in time, there is sometimes a premium to be had that overcompensates for the additional risk involved. For instance, if you think a horse is a legit 10/1 shot on Derby Day, and you can get him @ 15/1 just a few weeks out from the race with the final prep completed, i think that's probably worth taking. There's a stark difference between that, and taking a horse 2+ months out from the race with as many as two prep races yet to be run (in addition to a dearth of info regarding his prospective competition).
 
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2W2P2S

EOG Dedicated
Re: "Off The Derby Trail" thread

As for the KDFW, i really don't understand why someone with your acumen is so vehemently opposed to the Field entry. Obviously the individual entries are close to 100% unplayable (at least in the first two pools), while the Field is at the very least worth considering. I didn't bet it, because i thought the price was a bit low, but i could certainly see doing it. Historically speaking, it's been a good investment, even as the odds have declined in recent years.
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I'm not vehemently against it, and I've voiced my opinion to not bet anything in Pool 1, runners or field. My point is there are better ways to invest the money wagered on the field horses to get better than 3/2 on that money. It's the same thing that happens when a guy bets a sports team to win a championship at a certain price and is overjoyed when he wins, not realizing a ML parlay round by round doubled what he got paid. It's a lazy wager.
 
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Discreet Cat

EOG Dedicated
Re: "Off The Derby Trail" thread

2W2P2S said:
My point is there are better ways to invest the money wagered on the field horses to get better than 3/2 on that money. It's the same thing that happens when a guy bets a sports team to win a championship at a certain price and is overjoyed when he wins, not realizing a ML parlay round by round doubled what he got paid. It's a lazy wager.
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I think the problem you run into there (unlike in the major sport playoff rounds) is that, at the time of Pool One, you're unable to quantify the prices involved among the eventual Field horses on raceday. You know as well as i do how unpredictable that is.

Whereas with sports teams, before the playoffs start you can sit there and project out the possible (and/or likely) round-by-round matchups and then formulate an expected price based on a parlay of the individual series prices.
 
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2W2P2S

EOG Dedicated
Re: "Off The Derby Trail" thread

Discreet Cat said:
I think the problem you run into there (unlike in the major sport playoff rounds) is that, at the time of Pool One, you're unable to quantify the prices involved among the eventual Field horses on raceday. You know as well as i do how unpredictable that is.

Whereas with sports teams, before the playoffs start you can sit there and project out the possible (and/or likely) round-by-round matchups and then formulate an expected price based on a parlay of the individual series prices.
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Right, except we have many, many more ways to use the initial investment and we can weight it anyway we want across the runners. And the uncertainty of being able to quantify the prices involved among the eventual Field horses on raceday works both ways. It either hurts or helps the field bet. An extreme example is 5 horses making up the field and nobody below 20/1. The field bet becomes horrible.
 
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Re: "Off The Derby Trail" thread

pool 1 field players rejoice again..
Fed Biz off the derby train
 
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Re: "Off The Derby Trail" thread

one poll as of today T.times
TRIPLE CROWN POLL RESULTS FOR RACING THROUGH MARCH 4


Thoroughbred Times publishes a weekly poll of the leading Triple Crown contenders based on a vote from its editors, reporters, and correspondents.


Overall --
1. Union Rags
2. Creative Cause
3. Hansen
4. Alpha
5. El Padrino
6. I'll Have Another
7. Gemologist
8. Bodemeister
9. Prospective
10. Mark Valeski
11. Secret Circle
12. Fed Biz
13. Howe Great
14. Take Charge Indy
15. Tiger Walk
16. Castaway
17. Sabercat
18. My Adonis
19. Empire Way
20. Liaison
 
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Discreet Cat

EOG Dedicated
Re: "Off The Derby Trail" thread

Obviously, that's a far more likely objective. In fact, she's currently pointing to the Sunland Park Oaks, a race Baffert has used to prep Plum Pretty and Gabby's Golden Gal for eventual Oak runs the last few years (Plum Pretty won the Oaks coming out of that race, in fact). Still though, plans can change, and a Derby run remains a very remote possibilty (particularly if Bodemeister goes the way of Fed Biz). Just rooting aloud, as I recently took a flyer on her @ 250/1. It'd be nice to see her in the starting gate.
 
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Factorial

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Re: "Off The Derby Trail" thread

I had heard about Fly Lexis Fly from another trainer but had forgotten his name and about the horse too until JK asked about him. Jk deserves the credit.
 
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2W2P2S

EOG Dedicated
Re: "Off The Derby Trail" thread

Factorial said:
I had heard about Fly Lexis Fly from another trainer but had forgotten his name and about the horse too until JK asked about him. Jk deserves the credit.
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I don't understand this at all. To DC's credit, he posted about the horse dating back to November. In January JK said a "wiseguy" mentioned the horse and he planned on investigating. You questioned him saying there is no horse registered by that name, and you were going to have a research staff look it up. Within an hour of your post, several posters here provided you information including video on the horse for which you thanked them (myself included). It was clear you hadn't heard of the horse before then, and JK knew nothing of the horse............I don't think anybody's looking for credit (unless DC is), but the fact is without the forum postings on the horse, probably no TVG segment.
 
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Factorial

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Re: "Off The Derby Trail" thread

2W2P2S said:
I don't understand this at all. To DC's credit, he posted about the horse dating back to November. In January JK said a "wiseguy" mentioned the horse and he planned on investigating. You questioned him saying there is no horse registered by that name, and you were going to have a research staff look it up. Within an hour of your post, several posters here provided you information including video on the horse for which you thanked them (myself included). It was clear you hadn't heard of the horse before then, and JK knew nothing of the horse............I don't think anybody's looking for credit (unless DC is), but the fact is without the forum postings on the horse, probably no TVG segment.
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I could do a better job of reading this board. I simply get busy and missed Discreet's post. JK had mentioned him, so I looked him up but I entered "Lexus" instead of "Lexis." I heard about this horse in December, however, the trainer said Lexus like the car and that had stuck in mind.

Discreet was probably the first to post... I just missed his post. I value all you guys. I'd label the horse guys on this site 'sharp' guys, including you 2W2P2S. Getting back to the horse; I would be very surprised if this Fly Lexis Fly doesn't make the Belmont unless he runs into another issue. Remember Drysdale is as conservative as they come, sometimes to a fault, but nevertheless he'll always do right by the horse and that's why I genuinely like the guy. I want to update this piece Soon and actually get him working.
 
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Discreet Cat

EOG Dedicated
Re: "Off The Derby Trail" thread

Factorial said:
I would be very surprised if this Fly Lexis Fly doesn't make the Belmont unless he runs into another issue.
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I'd be kind of surprised. Hope i'm wrong about that, because i'd love to see him in the race.


PS - Back to the "credit" thing, i had originally read about the horse in a Thoroughbred Times article that included a replay of the same race that's been posted here a few times. If anyone deserves credit, it's them. Incidentally, the horse had originally been slated to join Angel Penna's barn @ Gulfstream. Then he suddenly got re-routed to Drysdale @ Santa Anita, and i came to find that Drysdale has personally shown up in Peru to check the horse out, and apparently was able to persuade the owner to give Fly Lexis Fly to him. I found that extremely telling, because it seemed highly doubtful Drysdale had any other business down there (not that i would know, just guessing). I figured he must have a real hard-on for the horse, and considering Drysdale's resume, that's saying something. I also LOVED the fact that Fly Lexis Fly has already won @ Classic distances (vs. older horses, no less), while Derby favorites like Union Rags, Hansen, or anyone else you want to name had never been past 1 1/16 miles (and still haven't, btw). Throw in the fact that the horse was completely under-the-radar, and you have the makings of a very nice future bet. I ended up losing around $250 on the horse, so no big deal. It was worth the chance.
 
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Factorial

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Re: "Off The Derby Trail" thread

Discreet -

Drysdale now has a second horse and I believe a third horse is coming from the same owner. The owner is big racing fan and seems to have a strong desire to have success in the States.
 
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Discreet Cat

EOG Dedicated
Re: "Off The Derby Trail" thread

The other one is a 3yo colt named Xuang Fen. Interesting to note, that one hasn't recorded a workout either...


Btw, thanks again for doing the TVG piece. I was grateful to receive any info that i could about the horse, because it was pretty damn hard to come by. The only other quoted from Drysdale i had seen were back in December, and i had to translate those from some Peruvian website (Google translate doesn't work incredibly well, btw). Excellent work, and much appreciated.
 
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Re: "Off The Derby Trail" thread

amazing how all the top horses are so sound..a few owners have pointed now away form DERBY on horses that would qualify...

Note: The connections of Wrote-IRE and Drill officially withdrew their horses from Kentucky Derby 138 consideration. In addition, Secret Circle, Liaison,
Prospective, Trinniberg and Rousing Sermon have said their horses should be considered ?possible? runners at this stage (Trinniberg is likely to use The Cliff?s
Edge Derby Trial as a prelude to the Preakness). Also, the connections for Hero of Order have expressed an interest in running in the Kentucky Derby but,
because the horse is not Triple Crown nominated, he would have to be supplemented for $200,000. Additionally, Triple Crown nominees have first preference.
Meanwhile, a trio of horses scheduled to run in Saturday?s Grade III, $200,000 Coolmore Lexington could move into the Top 24 if they claim the $120,000 first
prize. Morgan?s Guerilla, Stirred Up and News Pending would move ahead of Isn?t He Clever with a win (note: Morgan?s Guerilla would be tied with Reveron
at $220,000, but Reveron would win the tiebreaker because he has $60,000 in non-restricted stakes earnings). A victory by Golden Ticket would move him ahead
of Optimizer on the list.
 
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Discreet Cat

EOG Dedicated
Re: "Off The Derby Trail" thread

FBWINNERS (over @ HorseRacingTalk) mentioned yesterday that Alpha did not ship to Churchill because he's come down with an infection after clipping heels in the Wood Memorial. He incurred some lacerations during the incident, which in turn caused the infection, and he's currently being treated with antibiotics. No word on his current status, but certainly a tough break for the horse and his connectuions.

Btw, if anyone is interested in following the daily goings-on leading up to the Derby i would highly recommend FB's "Kentucky Oaks/Derby 2012" thread, as it's an annual thing we do over there, and there's always lots of good information and discussion contained therein.
 
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copenique

EOG Enthusiast
Re: "Off The Derby Trail" thread

Thanks for the link Cat. I liked Bode but looked for 20-1 or hugher before Ark Derby. Wouldn't take 15-1 and Peppermill here in Reno reduced hin to 5-1 as of Tues the 17th. Pass. I do think he will be a major factor in KY and will use him in Tri and Supers in i and 2 hole. Still 3 weeks away and anything can happen. I still remember Easy Goer that I had at 30-1 and he went off at 6-5 race day and am still upset at Pat Day!!!!!!! Look forward to your thoughts as the most exciting 2 minutes in sports approaches.
 
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Re: "Off The Derby Trail" thread

kentucky oaks info..

Bob Baffert @Midnightlute
?More
Princess Arabella out of Ky Oaks. Live interview on HRTV today at 10am Pacific time for more details . #freakFilly
Retweeted by @raypaulick
 
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