Donaghy Tout Service

[PerpetualCzech]

Re: Donaghy Tout Service

If you took the time to listen to the broadcast or have your wife do it, you would find that I am not trying to sell anything.

WTF, who said anything about your braodcast? I'm saying the post you made, which contains analysis that you should be embarassed about, would have never existed if the plays had lost. You have done the same thing in the past with EOG show appearances.

If you can link to a unprompted post you made in the past that listed plays you gave out on a broadcast that ended up losing, I will take back the accusation you are a scumbag tout. For the moment at least.

 

[PerpetualCzech]

Re: Donaghy Tout Service

Um, no. A quick glance at those numbers will (or rather, should) show you that those are numbers that represent fouls called in the game by the entire crew, not by the individual refs. So on average each particular ref is only going to be responsible for approx. 1/3rd of those calls since you have no idea which one called the foul.

Wow, you are really bad at this.

For those of you paying attention and wondering where Voulgaris got his stats from that showed Donaghy was lying about the Charlotte/Minnesota game, he has video of every game and actually took the time review them and chart which call was made by which ref (which is pretty damn impressive analysis if you ask me).

 

[pbovi]

Re: Donaghy Tout Service

WTF, who said anything about your braodcast? I'm saying the post you made, which contains analysis that you should be embarassed about, would have never existed if the plays had lost. You have done the same thing in the past with EOG show appearances.

If you can link to a unprompted post you made in the past that listed plays you gave out on a broadcast that ended up losing, I will take back the accusation you are a scumbag tout. For the moment at least.

1) The last few plays I gave out on the broadcast for the following night covered. On the night of the broadcast he asked if I had won that night and that is when I responded no 2) You are making a supposition. 'If' being catch word here. That is like me saying that 'if' you were born a woman, you would like to take it up the ass. Stick to what is, instead of what might be based upon your own warped sense of values and negativity. As far as your analysis on the refs, if I have 3 refs who all show a strong bias one way (with their crew), and you use .33 of each, the conclusion one can draw is that there is a bias towards that side. This based upon your .33.

You strike me as the type who sits in front of the window waiting for little boys and girls to throw gum wrappers on the floor so you can run down and scold them. Everything to you is negative.

 

[pbovi]

Re: Donaghy Tout Service

WTF, who said anything about your braodcast? I'm saying the post you made, which contains analysis that you should be embarassed about, would have never existed if the plays had lost. You have done the same thing in the past with EOG show appearances.

If you can link to a unprompted post you made in the past that listed plays you gave out on a broadcast that ended up losing, I will take back the accusation you are a scumbag tout. For the moment at least.

As far as the link you so covet, besides the 2 games I lost in the contest versus the 4 wins that week, I had a 1-0, a 1-0, a 2-0-1, and beyond that I cannot recall but there was no more than one other loss. Sorry I cannot help you out.

 

[pbovi]

Re: Donaghy Tout Service

As far as the link you so covet, besides the 2 games I lost in the contest versus the 4 wins that week, I had a 1-0, a 1-0, a 2-0-1, and beyond that I cannot recall but there was no more than one other loss. Sorry I cannot help you out.

And the Super Bowl 2-1 Props 1-0 on the side.

 

[Scooter]

Re: Donaghy Tout Service

Bovi= Donaghy. Two scammers, trying to make money off of the desperate.

(I won't call you a scumbag again, since according to your rules I'm only allowed to call you scumbag one time and I've already used up my one time to call you a scumbag, so once again I won't call you a scumbag for that reason).

 

[PerpetualCzech]

Re: Donaghy Tout Service

As far as your analysis on the refs, if I have 3 refs who all show a strong bias one way (with their crew), and you use .33 of each, the conclusion one can draw is that there is a bias towards that side. This based upon your .33

It never even occured to me you don't get the problem with your ATL/MIA analysis. You understand the concept of random variance, right? So a 31-45 record that gets generated randomly once in 7-8 times is nowhere close to being good enough evidence to make a play on a 13-game card. In fact, it's a little unusual you didn't come across another similar record for some other game on the same day.

Similarly here you have zero basis to conclude a bias of any sort about these refs who supposedly call more fouls for Away Teams. Again, you will have variance in historical results. Never mind you didn't even realize the stats were for crews and not individual refs, you haven't even attempted any sort of statistical analysis to demonstrate you have a big enough sample to conclude bias or not.

I think you just became my favourite poster ever.

 

[Jeff Jones]

Re: Donaghy Tout Service

On the show last night, I identified 4 games where the officiating crew had a strong bias towards the high or the low side, and in particular the Heat Hawks under where the collective records of the 3 refs were 31-45 against the over. The others were the Nets Clippers over, Warriors Grizzlies over, and the Blazers T Wolves under. The latter went down on late garbage though the others were easy covers. I also stated that the 3 officials working the Knicks Spurs game had a tendency to call a disproportionate number of fouls on the visiting team. .

Otay Buckwheat. You're headed down a bad programming path now. If you're going to exploit the fate of Tim D. to get a radio gig by intimating that NBA shenanigans occur in multiple games nightly, you are going to last until somebody REAL hears the show.

 

[pbovi]

Re: Donaghy Tout Service

Otay Buckwheat. You're headed down a bad programming path now. If you're going to exploit the fate of Tim D. to get a radio gig by intimating that NBA shenanigans occur in multiple games nightly, you are going to last until somebody REAL hears the show.

Jeff, I think you have misinterpreted my message. Without exception, there are tendencies when it comes to officiating in every major sport. In baseball, the strike zone varies by umpire and as such some umps tend to show a tendency towards the high or low side of the total. Many baseball cappers make the umps a major part of their handicapping repetoire. Same holds true for the NFL as some crews tend to call more intereference penalties than others, which would obviously result in more scoring. I am not saying there are any shenanigans but rather inferring that there are tendencies specific to each ref. And Jeff, I did not exploit anything. Tim asked me to co host with him after he asked me to do a guest appearance on a Celtics pre game show and liked what he heard. I simply tried to introduce a different aspect of handicapping which tends to get overlooked. Btw, I was a Stymie man meeself.

 

[pbovi]

Re: Donaghy Tout Service

It never even occured to me you don't get the problem with your ATL/MIA analysis. You understand the concept of random variance, right? So a 31-45 record that gets generated randomly once in 7-8 times is nowhere close to being good enough evidence to make a play on a 13-game card. In fact, it's a little unusual you didn't come across another similar record for some other game on the same day.Similarly here you have zero basis to conclude a bias of any sort about these refs who supposedly call more fouls for Away Teams. Again, you will have variance in historical results. Never mind you didn't even realize the stats were for crews and not individual refs, you haven't even attempted any sort of statistical analysis to demonstrate you have a big enough sample to conclude bias or not.I think you just became my favourite poster ever.

If you had listened to the broadcast you would have heard something along the lines of the following "While the refs are not the deciding factor in who I play, I do pay attention to it as I might think twice about going against a strong trend." I also stated that I do not pay attention to the ref stats unless there is a sizable sample in terms of number of games. The more games played, the more the deviation from the mean becomes something to consider. I do realize the stats were for crews. I do pay attention to historical results because it is the best indicator of the future. Surely you are familiar with +/- in the NBA. Some subscribe to it as valuable and some do not. Obviously, the +/- system has flaws because there are 4 other teammates on the court at the same time which confuse the accuracy. The more games you have to draw from, the greater the chance that the +/- will be a more accurate reflection of the players' effectiveness. This is also not a perfect system but the more games a ref is on the crew which shows a bias, the greater chance he has something to do with it.

 

[pbovi]

Re: Donaghy Tout Service

Bovi= Donaghy. Two scammers, trying to make money off of the desperate.

(I won't call you a scumbag again, since according to your rules I'm only allowed to call you scumbag one time and I've already used up my one time to call you a scumbag, so once again I won't call you a scumbag for that reason).

And again, for the umpteenth time, at this time, I am not trying to sell anything

 

[pbovi]

Re: Donaghy Tout Service

Bovi= Donaghy. Two scammers, trying to make money off of the desperate.

(I won't call you a scumbag again, since according to your rules I'm only allowed to call you scumbag one time and I've already used up my one time to call you a scumbag, so once again I won't call you a scumbag for that reason).

And again, for the umpteenth time, at this time, I have not nor have I tried to sell anything.

 

[Jeff Jones]

Re: Donaghy Tout Service

Jeff, I think you have misinterpreted my message. Without exception, there are tendencies when it comes to officiating in every major sport. In baseball, the strike zone varies by umpire and as such some umps tend to show a tendency towards the high or low side of the total. Many baseball cappers make the umps a major part of their handicapping repetoire. Same holds true for the NFL as some crews tend to call more intereference penalties than others, which would obviously result in more scoring. I am not saying there are any shenanigans but rather inferring that there are tendencies specific to each ref. And Jeff, I did not exploit anything. Tim asked me to co host with him after he asked me to do a guest appearance on a Celtics pre game show and liked what he heard. I simply tried to introduce a different aspect of handicapping which tends to get overlooked. Btw, I was a Stymie man meeself.

Well, you tell me that Tim asked you to cohost a show with him. Quite an honor. Run, now, fast.

And then you come right out of the gate with this mumbo-jumbo passing for thought that x-numbers referees favored the "over" and this game or that is questionable regarding the result.

Of course the last defense of any uber-gambler is the "You do understand random variance, don't you," implying that the loss is always the fault of the mark rather than the expert.

 

[2W2P2S]

Re: Donaghy Tout Service

And again, for the umpteenth time, at this time, I have not nor have I tried to sell anything.

There are currently 1 plays in Paul Bovi's Daily Package which includes the following games: Minnesota vs. L.A. Lakers (Mar 09 8:05 PM EST)

All selections have Documented Lines and Time Stamps


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Get your Paul Bovi NBA Daily Picks now for $29.95!

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[pbovi]

Re: Donaghy Tout Service

Well, you tell me that Tim asked you to cohost a show with him. Quite an honor. Run, now, fast.

And then you come right out of the gate with this mumbo-jumbo passing for thought that x-numbers referees favored the "over" and this game or that is questionable regarding the result.

Of course the last defense of any uber-gambler is the "You do understand random variance, don't you," implying that the loss is always the fault of the mark rather than the expert.

Jeff, you keep trying to send this done a certain path. I never said anything was questionable only that certain referees have certain tendencies that show up in the stats.

 

[pbovi]

Re: Donaghy Tout Service

There are currently 1 plays in Paul Bovi's Daily Package which includes the following games: Minnesota vs. L.A. Lakers (Mar 09 8:05 PM EST)

All selections have Documented Lines and Time Stamps


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[SIZE=-1]Get your Paul Bovi NBA Daily Picks now for $29.95![/SIZE]

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You well know the point I was trying to make was that I am not using the show to sell picks. I have never once mentioned VegasInsider nor that my picks are for sale.

 

[2W2P2S]

Re: Donaghy Tout Service

You well know the point I was trying to make was that I am not using the show to sell picks. I have never once mentioned VegasInsider nor that my picks are for sale.

You don't need to mention it on the show. Accessing the show the listener has to tread through the landmines.

Hosted by former NBA official Tim Donaghy and Vegas Insider’s Paul Bovi. Tim and Paul address sports from a whole different prospective, as they go inside the Vegas numbers and lean on the topics that the networks avoid.

And just in case the listener trying to access the show missed it the first time, they can find this on the page:
[h=5]Paul Bovi[/h] A professional sports bettor since his departure as Vice President of a prominent investment firm in 1995, Paul launched his public presence in 2004 as a handicapper for VI. Since that time, Paul has established himself as a top handicapper in both NFL and NBA which is reflected in his consistently high winning percentage in both sports

You better have a talk with the show's website designer. Gotta be bothering the heck out of you they keep mentioning you and VI.

 

[pbovi]

Re: Donaghy Tout Service

You don't need to mention it on the show. Accessing the show the listener has to tread through the landmines.

Hosted by former NBA official Tim Donaghy and Vegas Insider’s Paul Bovi. Tim and Paul address sports from a whole different prospective, as they go inside the Vegas numbers and lean on the topics that the networks avoid.

And just in case the listener trying to access the show missed it the first time, they can find this on the page:
Paul Bovi

A professional sports bettor since his departure as Vice President of a prominent investment firm in 1995, Paul launched his public presence in 2004 as a handicapper for VI. Since that time, Paul has established himself as a top handicapper in both NFL and NBA which is reflected in his consistently high winning percentage in both sports

You better have a talk with the show's website designer. Gotta be bothering the heck out of you they keep mentioning you and VI.

The show grabbed my bio from VI. I did not lend any input whatsoever whether you believe it or not. Anybody square that saw that would not have a clue who 'VI' is, especially since their format is not geared towards gambling, or so I am told by the station owners. Go ask one of your horse racing cronies who 'VI' is and tell me what they say.

 

[Scooter]

Re: Donaghy Tout Service

The show grabbed my bio from VI. I did not lend any input whatsoever whether you believe it or not. Anybody square that saw that would not have a clue who 'VI' is, especially since their format is not geared towards gambling, or so I am told by the station owners. Go ask one of your horse racing cronies who 'VI' is and tell me what they say.

i just googled "VI - sportsbetting".

The first item on the first page is:

[h=3]Anyone know what "VI CONSENSUS LINE MOVEMENTS" is ???? - Sports ...[/h]


<cite>forum.sbrforum.com › ... › NCAA Basketball Betting</cite>Cached<button id="gbpwm_0" class="gbil esw eswd eswh" title="Recommend this page" g:entity="http://forum.sbrforum.com/ncaa-basketball-betting/980159-anyone-know-what-vi-consensus-line-movements.html" g:undo="poS0" gingback="/gen_204?atyp=i&ct=plusone&cad=S0"></button>
You +1'd this publicly. Undo
Aug 5, 2011 – On vegasinsider where they list line movements they have "VI CONSENSUS LINE MOVEMENTS" Anyone know what this is ?"

Really tough to find out what "VI" is .

 

[pbovi]

Re: Donaghy Tout Service

i just googled "VI - sportsbetting".

The first item on the first page is:

Anyone know what "VI CONSENSUS LINE MOVEMENTS" is ???? - Sports ...




<cite>forum.sbrforum.com › ... › NCAA Basketball Betting</cite>Cached<button id="gbpwm_0" class="gbil esw eswd eswh" title="Recommend this page" gingback="/gen_204?atyp=i&ct=plusone&cad=S0" g:undo="poS0" g:entity="http://forum.sbrforum.com/ncaa-basketball-betting/980159-anyone-know-what-vi-consensus-line-movements.html"></button>
You +1'd this publicly. Undo
Aug 5, 2011 – On vegasinsider where they list line movements they have "VI CONSENSUS LINE MOVEMENTS" Anyone know what this is ?"

Really tough to find out what "VI" is .

You give the average smuck a lot of credit Scooter. That is the 2nd item which takes you to the SBR Forum and mentions Vegas Insider with no link but you assume he then puts 2 and 2 together and does his own search from there . The first link is something about top 10 sports books. Muddled in with that is stuff about a 90 day challenge, wrestling. the King George VI Chase. Surely some people must think I am a handicapper in the Virgin Islands. You think these people are like Barnaby Jones don't you?

 

[2W2P2S]

Re: Donaghy Tout Service

The show grabbed my bio from VI. I did not lend any input whatsoever whether you believe it or not. Anybody square that saw that would not have a clue who 'VI' is, especially since their format is not geared towards gambling, or so I am told by the station owners. Go ask one of your horse racing cronies who 'VI' is and tell me what they say.

Trust me, you wouldn't like their responses.
And how convenient you talk about figuring out what VI means when this is on the shows main advertisement- Vegas Insider’s Paul Bovi

 

[pbovi]

Re: Donaghy Tout Service

Trust me, you wouldn't like their responses.
And how convenient you talk about figuring out what VI means when this is on the shows main advertisement- Vegas Insider’s Paul Bovi

Again, the station pulled what they wanted to pull without my input and you will not have heard me once state that I sell picks, am affiliated with a site, period.

 

[John Kelly]

Re: Donaghy Tout Service

I remember asking Paul Bovi if he had anything to promote prior to his appearances on various radio shows and he always downplayed his affilation with the sports advisory business.

Now Johnny DeMarco on the other hand...

 

[PerpetualCzech]

Re: Donaghy Tout Service

I do realize the stats were for crews.

Pure and demonstrable bullshit. I informed you that:

the NBA does not keep track of or provide data on individual ref calls (i.e. which one actually blew the whistle)

Your response to this was:

There is plenty of access to this info.

while at the same time providing a link that only contained crew stats. From that exchange it is obvious you were under the impression they were individual ref stats and now you are trying to weasel your way out by lying and claiming you knew it all along.

 

[PerpetualCzech]

Re: Donaghy Tout Service

I also stated that I do not pay attention to the ref stats unless there is a sizable sample in terms of number of games.

You actually stated the opposite of this claim a mere few posts ago:

On the show last night, I identified 4 games where the officiating crew had a strong bias towards the high or the low side, and in particular the Heat Hawks under where the collective records of the 3 refs were 31-45 against the over.

You are just *so* bad at this. LOL

 

[pbovi]

Re: Donaghy Tout Service

You actually stated the opposite of this claim a mere few posts ago:



You are just *so* bad at this. LOL

PerpetualSmuck...much more befitting....31-45 suggests an average of 25 games a piece which is this year. Are you suggesting that has no relevance? As far as the Spurs game it must piss you off that it actually bore fruit. It's Friday night PerpetualSmuck, take your wife to Wendy's already. You are such a loser!

 

[pbovi]

Re: Donaghy Tout Service

I remember asking Paul Bovi if he had anything to promote prior to his appearances on various radio shows and he always downplayed his affilation with the sports advisory business.

Now Johnny DeMarco on the other hand...

John, I appreciate your stepping up as you did in revealing that I turned in that money handed to me at the VegasInsider Conference. PerpetualSmuck has 114 posts and brings nothing but negativity. He represents the dark side of the forums. He is better suited to study the following. http://zenhabits.net/negative/..just a dick!

 

[Scooter]

Re: Donaghy Tout Service

"Smuck"?

 

[seanpatrick]

Re: Donaghy Tout Service

@Pbovi....These guys are jealous and can't pick a winner......just because I feel sorry for all of them I will give them a lock...Memphis Grizz:lock:

 

[Dino]

Re: Donaghy Tout Service

You actually stated the opposite of this claim a mere few posts ago:



You are just *so* bad at this. LOL

F'in hilarious.

 

[PerpetualCzech]

Re: Donaghy Tout Service

31-45 suggests an average of 25 games a piece which is this year. Are you suggesting that has no relevance?

I not only suggested it, I proved it - twice - using math that I learned in Grade 11.

Did I mention how bad you are at this?

 

[pbovi]

Re: Donaghy Tout Service

I not only suggested it, I proved it - twice - using math that I learned in Grade 11.

Did I mention how bad you are at this?

You proved nothing. You discredited any and all info relevant to refs and as such proves you are the reigning 'PerpetualSmuck.':LMAO

 

[Scooter]

Re: Donaghy Tout Service

New word for Bill O'Really - "boviating".

Definition -

1) Ignoring all evidence;

2) Making frequent contradictory statements;

3) Taking no personal responsibility (e.g., "It was the station that posted my affiliation with Vegas Insider, it wasn't me");



"boviator"

1) One with the above characteristics;

2) One who is unable to spell "schmuck";

3) One who works with a thief or thieves;

3) Bullsh*tter; scumbag; dishonest tout.

 

[pbovi]

Re: Donaghy Tout Service

Now that is really hysterical....Homie gets on to criticize my spelling and desecrates the name of the Irish by mangling 'O'Reilly'......You good!

http://www.cuteness.com/popular/dogs/name/Scooter/3830

 

[pbovi]

Re: Donaghy Tout Service

New word for Bill O'Really - "boviating".

Definition -

1) Ignoring all evidence;

2) Making frequent contradictory statements;

3) Taking no personal responsibility (e.g., "It was the station that posted my affiliation with Vegas Insider, it wasn't me");



"boviator"

1) One with the above characteristics;

2) One who is unable to spell "schmuck";

3) One who works with a thief or thieves;

3) Bullsh*tter; scumbag; dishonest tout.

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Toronto​

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Detroit​

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OVER​

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185.5 -105​

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5DIMESRJ .....Maybe you should buy a package Scooter...Perhaps you might show a profit by the end of the season. $200 for the rest of the year and all the money to the ASPCA. I will even add $100 of my own money.​

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[LQQKer]

Re: Donaghy Tout Service

OK folks, we're in the 6th round of this cage fight...and blovation has set in among the contestants.

...the crowd has gone home, but the fight goes on...

 

[Scooter]

Re: Donaghy Tout Service

Now that is really hysterical....Homie gets on to criticize my spelling and desecrates the name of the Irish by mangling 'O'Reilly'......You good!

http://www.cuteness.com/popular/dogs/name/Scooter/3830

Keith Olbermann calls him that due to Bill O's frequent response of "Oh, really!!!".

 

[pbovi]

Re: Donaghy Tout Service

OK folks, we're in the 6th round of this cage fight...and blovation has set in among the contestants.

...the crowd has gone home, but the fight goes on...

I want to concentrate on my Golden State Dallas 2nd half but these guys relentlous

 

[LQQKer]

Re: Donaghy Tout Service

I want to concentrate on my Golden State Dallas 2nd half but these guys relentlous

No matter how good you or the evil ref are now, you ain't gonna convince 'em. But you gotta admit, there is a lot of hard-core published evidence that shows that Donaghy lied about what he was doing.

On the other hand, my Dad posted 60%+ winners on WNBA a few years ago over at RTP and he got all kinds of shit even though it was verified by Computer Bob. He stopped doing that, and he quit selling picks too.

My take is: a "traditional" handicapper cannot fathom anyone (especially a modeler, but even more so a liar caught red-handed) exceeding a 54-55% win rate. It seems that if they can't do it, they can't see that anybody else can, even when it is verified, because we'll have to argue over the verification process.

Carry on: round 7 coming up.

 

[PerpetualCzech]

Re: Donaghy Tout Service

On the other hand, my Dad posted 60%+ winners on WNBA a few years ago over at RTP and he got all kinds of shit even though it was verified by Computer Bob.

Link please.