Big East Round1 - Stats

roach23

roach23

Banned
Capn...how much value in the total makes it a play? Like when there is a difference between how much between your stats and the actual total?
 
BADLIEUTENANT

BADLIEUTENANT

EOG Enthusiast
CapnHandi

Appreciate all the info & your efforts .

You mentioned you have a database that show lots of useful info based on the coaches & it was quite useful .Did you read any of the articles on ESPN.com that were written by Pete Tiernan concerning March Madness ?The article he wrote on Feb 15th was concerning the college coaches & how they do in the NCAA Tournamnent .He had some interesting stats concerning coaches & how well they did in relationship to where they were seeded ,not just how many wins & losses they had during March Madness .

Since the article didn't talk about gambling & games against the spread ,I was curious if you had any thoughts or stats on the article related to the games ATS &/or how the coaches in the upcoming tournament have done in March Madness ATS .

Thanks again & GL on your picks .
 
C

CapnHandi

EOG Addicted
BadL - I did read that article and it's a great read on coaching success. (You can find it here http://insider.espn.go.com/ncb/ncaatourney06/insider/news/story?id=2329124 )

For the regular season I focus on a team's recent performance only (last 3-7 games). However, for the Big Dance I do factor in a team's previous performance ATS. Coaching is so much more a factor when if you lose one game, you're done. Every year we see coaching screw-ups in the final minutes of a big game, e. g., no timeouts left, guys on the floor who can't shoot fouls, a team that tightens up or panics - in a close game, as the majority are in March Madness, I'll take the coach who manages the game well and keeps his team relaxed.
 
kelp0027

kelp0027

EOG Dedicated
cap:

have you ever ; along with your above capping; also gone back and evaluated how the teams have done relative to expert preseason evaluations; looked at reason(s) for differences in success or failures (i.e. injuries; pooor attitudes; etc.); then also looked at performance in last 3-6 games of reg season ; and post-season league tournies....

..you might be surprised at the increase in predictive value; when you also include a team's expectation of season record against actual record; then a team gets it together at end of season; makes "big dance" and gets a second chance to strut their stuff....

jmho

gl

p.s. nice posts ty gl

:+thumbs-2
 
C

CapnHandi

EOG Addicted
kelp - I break my handicapping up into 2 parts, quantitative and qualitative.

The stats I generate do most of the quantitative part and I use those stats to come up with a short list of possible plays which I analyze further. This further analysis includes a lot of the things you mentioned. In every sport it seems there is a team that gets hot at the right time and rides it to a championship - this year look at the White Sox and Steelers.

Who will get hot this year in March Madness? To me it seems like a much more wide open field than past years with 8 or 10 teams who could win it all. Anticipating the hot teams could be very profitable in the early rounds also.
 
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