Worthless baseball picks

S

Stephen

EOG Addicted
There's an interesting thread going on at Fezzik's forum about writing up picks.

Some have the opinion that it's a waste of time to write up a selection. Some, myself included, believe a pick is meaningless to bettors if there's no reasons and opinions why attached to it.

There are a few exceptions, pehaps Alan Boston and Shrink in college basketball, that I would follow someone's pick blindly without knowing the handicap behind it.

But in just about every case I'd want to know the thinking behind it.

Apparently Bucsfan has a strong reputation in baseball. But when I've checked out his picks, I've never seen a writeup. So, IMO, his picks are worthless.

This isn't meant to single out or rip on Bucsfan. Probably 99 percent of the people who take the time to post their picks don't include a writeup. I'm just using him as an example.

I think a handicapper who can write his reasons - and these are reasons that don't just explain why the betting line such as better pitcher, and home field - are very valuable and helpful to posting forums.

I'm not talking Hemingway here. Just a few sentences would be helpful like so-so has a career 2.25 ERA against this team, or so-so team is 8-24 against lefties the past 32, or the Giants will be resting Bonds, Alou and Vizquel in this game. Just something that explains why you believe you have an edge.

Just my two cents. Thanks for listening.
 
SHAWN GOTTI

SHAWN GOTTI

1
OK, I SEE YOUR POINT! LIKE YESTERDAY....BUCS BIG PLAY ON WHITE SOX, WHEN I CAPPED THE GAME....I LOVED THE BLUE JAYS! I REALLY WOULD HAVE LIKE TO KNOW WHY BUCS LIKED THE SOX SO MUCH.....BUT ALL I COULD REALLY FIND IN HIS THREAD WAS THAT HE ALWAYS BETS AGAINST DOWNS.
I WOULD NEVER FOLLOW ANY ONES PICKS........BUT I LOOK AT BUCS THREAD, ALONG WITH SHRINK, HOFFA, MOFOME...AND SEVERAL OTHERS TO SEE IF THERE MAY BE SOMETHING I OVERLOOKED IN MY OWN CAPPING. MAYBEE SOME GUYS DONT HAVE TIME TO DO WRITEUPS?
 
dmmd98

dmmd98

1
He liked the White Sox's so much since he figured Scott Downs was a gascan. However that was implied after the fact.
 
mofome

mofome

Banned
i do write ups when they are asked for. a few of us tried to get that going, but not many seem interested here. Ive enver seen an actual reason for any play made here, i dont believe.
 
SHAWN GOTTI

SHAWN GOTTI

1
mofome<SCRIPT type=text/javascript> vbmenu_register("postmenu_185933", true); </SCRIPT> ......IM JUST SAYING THAT YOU ARE ONE OF THE GUYS WHO I RESPECT AS A CAPPER. SOOOO, IF I REALLY LIKE A GAME AND I SEE THAT YOU LIKE IT TOO THEN GREAT! BUT IF I REALLY LIKE A GAME AND YOU ARE ON THE OPPOSITE SIDE....THEN IM SITTING HERE THINKING HMMMMMMMM WHYS MOFOME LIKE THE OTHER SIDE? DID I MISS SOMETHING...WHEN I CAPPED THE GAME?
 
S

Stephen

EOG Addicted
Unless someone has a long, well-earned reputation why would you bet their pick blindly if you don't know the reasons?

It's not just this forum. Practically all the forums are cluttered with people using aliases throwing out picks. Absolutely worthless IMO.

For those taking the time to write out the reasons for your pick, I thank you.

There's not a bigger waste of time than seeing someone give a pick of say White Sox -$1.65 without anything behind it.
 
J

Joe

2
Interesting thread...

However there is a big difference between a newbie posting Sox -165 without comment and an established poster on a hotstreak posting the same.

I think a well-written analysis is great. But they do take time and everyone who posts one does so for free. So, there is really not much incentive.

Many do not realize that.

Add in bashing and you wonder why anyone posts picks at all, let alone prepares a write-up.
 
mofome

mofome

Banned
SHAWN GOTTI said:
mofome<SCRIPT type=text/javascript> vbmenu_register("postmenu_185933", true); </SCRIPT> ......IM JUST SAYING THAT YOU ARE ONE OF THE GUYS WHO I RESPECT AS A CAPPER. SOOOO, IF I REALLY LIKE A GAME AND I SEE THAT YOU LIKE IT TOO THEN GREAT! BUT IF I REALLY LIKE A GAME AND YOU ARE ON THE OPPOSITE SIDE....THEN IM SITTING HERE THINKING HMMMMMMMM WHYS MOFOME LIKE THE OTHER SIDE? DID I MISS SOMETHING...WHEN I CAPPED THE GAME?
Click to expand...

yeah i know what u mean, just a lot of questions going around, some jokes on forums and other things. i answer every question i see, but writting up each play would take some time. I love to talk about the games and if anyone asks me why i like one i will lay it out there for them, but just typing it all and not knowing how many people care, it takes some time. U can trust that i have reasons behind each of my plays and i have even started a seperate section for just plays I am 100% giving out as im trying to get used to how u guys do things here and the large traffic here for baseball season that wasnt there on the site i used to call home. I pull for my freinds to win of course and i repsect a lot of the guys, but i have never even considered changing a play or its units based on what someone else may post, b/c i dont know if anyone here knows the game well. I mean im SURE some do, but people dont talk much baseball here. and, im just confident in doing this and couldnt imagine taking someone elses play or even thinking of giving myself the excuse that i lost b/c of someone else or anything silly. i do my thing and i hope this years goes like the last 3
 
S

Stephen

EOG Addicted
You would think ... at least hope ... that someone who writes out a pick with excellent reasons wouldn't get bashed if the pick loses.

People appreciate someone taking the time to make their case. I know I do.

Maybe the various picks forums could be separated to those with writeups and those just listing the pick.
 
dirty

dirty

EOG Master
Stephen...I agree with the writeups....But I have given it up after almost 8 years on the Forums....


I understand it helps alot of peeps....But when you do a Major writeup and it changes some peeps plays and they start bashing you and calling you everything But the son of GOD then you will not understand


I used to write up everyone of my picks until The year 1999-2000.....Me , Boone, and THE BIG DOG.....the best Baskets Handicapper i ever Met.....had consensus plays....We went on something like a 20-4 tear and had a Documented Record at the site of some crazy shit like 45-17....And We took Kentucky -6 against Georgia Tech at the GA dome IN Atlanta....GT was in a down year and had lost 4 Straight....Kentucky was ranked #1 in one poll #2 in the other....and Tech wins by 15.......

after that game we got so Flamed and it went on for over a week...it got to the point the THE BIG DOG posted at Every Edge for a while then just quit... posting because of it....I left the site I was at for a couple months then went back...but I swore after that I would never do it again and I Rarely do it...AS I don't want to change anyone's mind on a Pick...Sorry....


I have never forgotten it and anyone who has ever Been Thru it never will...:+waving-5
 
roach23

roach23

Banned
I agree with what's being said to a point.

But a lot of the time when capping a game i'm looking at different articles or stats from many different places. I'll put that together and make a decision on a play.

To have to type up all these factors when posting a play is a pain in the ass if you ask me.
 
Sound of Silence

Sound of Silence

2
It depends on what you are looking for.

If you are looking for an analysis on why Game X is a good game to wager on and possibly something to help you in your own future handicapping, you'll want the picks to have a writeup.

If you just want to win the money (assuming the capper is a winner), you'll be ok with picks sans writeup.

Fact of the matter is, there's a lot of people that want to better themselves as a handicapper, but there are a whole lot more people that are just as happy following some guy they will know make them money in the long run.

Judging by the increased activity we've had over here since Bucsfan's arrival, I'd say there are a lot more people just looking for the winners than some of you think :)
 
THE SHRINK

THE SHRINK

1
Excellent topic Stephen...

Personally, I don't need reasons when I know certain syndictates and Wise Guys are on a particular game like BW, the Koshers, FEZZIK, etc...

It's all about NUMBERS & VALUE for these people, so I suspect that if I get the SAME NUMBER as they do, then I have the BEST of it %-wise...

However, unless I KNOW the source of the bet VERY WELL, I definitely would need to HEAR someone's reasoning before followng them blindly...

P.S.

Bucsfan has a PROVEN track record over the past 3 years, so I would add him to this elite group for Baseball, but then again, I might be biassed...

THE SHRINK
 
Shortbus

Shortbus

1
I think many don't waste their time with writeups because not THAT many people are reading the threads.

As the site grows (and IT WILL), that will change IMO.
 
S

Stephen

EOG Addicted
I disagree Kelp. You can learn a lot from losing a wager.

I think if sharp handicappers on EOG take the time to write a few reasons why they like a game, the site would grow even more.
 
S

Stephen

EOG Addicted
I could contribute, but would be too busy on a daily basis. I'm more a follower in baseball but people I respect tell me Freddy Garcia's velocity is down so I'm on the underdog Blue Jays today.
 
mofome

mofome

Banned
Stephen said:
I could contribute, but would be too busy on a daily basis. I'm more a follower in baseball but people I respect tell me Freddy Garcia's velocity is down so I'm on the underdog Blue Jays today.
Click to expand...


hey big boi

wrote up a game for and it played out, word for word, how i said it would. go and show me how very very excited u are. afterall, i did it for u kiddie poo
 
mofome

mofome

Banned
well, if it helped someone it didnt but if it didnt help anyone then it did

needless to say, we will never know

lol
 
S

Stephen

EOG Addicted
Since I started this thread, I thought it only fair to contribute a pick and a writeup with it, whenever I have a real strong opinion on a game. This doesn't occur too often, but I do have an NBA one for Monday.

It's in the NBA forum titled "Monday Pick with Writeup" if anybody is interested. It took me about 15 minutes to write it up. I hope my rationale is good enough where I don't get ripped if the pick loses.

We've had some interesting viewpoints on this topic, and I thank all those who have responded.

Best of luck!
 
mofome

mofome

Banned
shrink must not have liked my write up

&(#@%!&@^$%@^$#

:(

and mine came in as a winnah. I will not, ever, relinquish my desire to impress the shrink with my write ups. back to square one

:+excited-
 
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