Greg M. Cooper / USA TODAY Sports
The Blues will win because: It’s a Game 7, there won’t be any power plays, is this your first day here?
The Blues and Bruins have each played a Game 7 so far this postseason, both of which featured just two power plays – and one of those came on a too-many-men where the officials had no choice. And those weren’t exactly outliers. There were four power plays in the Canes/Caps Game 7 (including a mandatory puck-over-glass call), and six in the Sharks/Avs. The only Game 7 where power plays were a big factor was the Sharks and Knights, and we know how that turned out – with everyone screaming that the referees had ruined the game by calling more than they should.
You get the point. In the NHL, referees don’t like to “decide the game.” Put aside whether you like that approach or not, it’s the reality of today’s league. Everyone would be perfectly happy if the two teams went out there and
played a penalty-free Game 7, regardless of how many calls should be made. And given how both the physical battle and the special teams have looked so far, that’s a big advantage to the Blues.
The wild card here is the lobbying that’s come from both coaches. Craig Berube asked for fewer penalties, and he got it. Bruce Cassidy pushed back after Game 5. Maybe he gets his way, and the refs actually call the rulebook tonight, even if it means giving someone four or five power plays. But if you’ve been a fan of this league for a while, you know not to get your hopes up.
The Bruins will win because: They’re well-suited to win the kind of game this will probably be.
Here’s a strange stat about Game 7 of the Stanley Cup final. We’ve had
15 of them in NHL history, most recently in 2011 and dating all the way back to 1942. That covers a ton of eras, from the World War II days to the Original Six to the high-scoring ’70s and ’80s to the modern dead puck era.
Guess how many of those 15 games featured more than five goals.
One.
That’s weird, right? There was a game between the Wings and Rangers in 1950 that went to double overtime and ended with a 4-3 Detroit win. That’s it. Every other game has had five or fewer goals, and the last six have had four or fewer. There have been four shutouts, and nine more games where the losing team only scored once. We haven’t seen both teams score multiple goals in a Game 7 since
the Rangers and Canucks back in 1994.
In other words, history suggests we’re probably not going to see much in the way of offense tonight. And while both teams have shown they can win defensive battles, the Bruins have shown it more often. They found a way to win 21 games this year where they scored three goals or fewer, and 10 where they scored just once or twice. The Blues had 17 wins with three or fewer goals, and only four with one or two.
That’s obviously not to say that the Blues can’t win a tight, low-scoring game – we only have to look back at Game 7 against the Stars to see that. But the Bruins have been doing it all year long.
The Blues will win because: They’re healthier … maybe?
You never know in the playoffs. You look at a team’s injury report and see that it’s all clear. Then the season ends, and you find out the first-line winger had his leg amputated in Round 2 and was playing on a limb he made out of his toddler’s spare legos. Then we all shrug, briefly feel bad about calling him slow for the last four weeks, and move on to the offseason.
So no, the Blues aren’t healthy. But for lack of a better term, they seem to be playoff healthy. That injury list really is all clear. And they’ll get Ivan Barbashev back from suspension, so it’s all hands on deck for the biggest game of the year.
The Bruins are in relatively decent shape too. But they’ll probably be missing Matt Grzelcyk, and we know that Zdeno Chara is nowhere close to 100 percent. Mix in the questions about Brad Marchand and the rest of the first line, and the health column appears to be at least a slight edge to St. Louis.
The Bruins will win because: Come on, it’s the St. Louis Blues.
We’ve been over this. There may not be a team in the NHL that has
a more tortured history than the St. Louis Blues.
Have things been going well lately? Sure. This is what the hockey gods do to teams like this. You can’t just keep kicking someone when they’re down. At some point, you have to pick them up, dust them off, and tell them it’s finally going to be OK because this time it’s different. Then, when they let their guard down, you kick them again.
We’re supposed to believe that this same Blues team that’s spent the last 52 years finding new ways to get their pants pulled down in front of the hockey world is going to walk into Boston, a city that wins a major sports championship every 15 minutes, and win a do-or-die game for the Stanley Cup?
Come on. It’s the Blues. Something horrible is going to happen.
The Blues will win because: Screw the past, this is destiny.
What, did you want it to be easy? Did you really think you were going to get the perfect little Game 6 home win with a bow on top? You didn’t know all along that it would come down to one game, on the road, with this entire crazy season on the line?
Like we said up above: Come on, it’s the St. Louis Blues.
That doesn’t mean you’re destined to see it all end in tears. OK, it absolutely might mean that, sure. But it doesn’t have to. It could mean that you’ve spent over half a century building up to the one year where it all came together. And if that’s what’s happening, let’s give the hockey gods some credit – they’re piling it on pretty thick for you. Fired coach, dead last place, fourth-string goalie, total write-off … I mean, this is getting close to Hollywood stuff. And I don’t remember seeing many classic Hollywood movies that build up to the big payoff in Game 6.
So sure, it’s going seven. It was always going seven. And the Blues are going to walk into Boston and steal the Cup away from the Bruins, because that’s how this has to end. Probably in overtime. Maybe after an offside review, but let’s hope not. Just know that when that final bounce comes, it will finally go the Blues’ way.
Will it make sense? No. None of this season has. Hell, not much of the last half-century has. Maybe it was never supposed to. But tonight is the night it was all leading up to. And it ends with the St. Louis Blues finally, mercifully winning the Stanley Cup. I’ve never been more sure of anything in my life.
(Note to editors: Remember to delete that last section when the Bruins win.)