"Buyer Beware: Sports Betting Touts In Era Of Widespread Legalization
Exploring transparency and the ontology of a tout: Is touting on a spectrum?"
"Steve Fezzik is a numbers whiz. A former actuary and Chess Candidate Master, he’s the first person to ever win the Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest in back to back years (2008, 2009). Some have even called him “the best bettor in the world,” per his bio at PreGame.com."
"...At PreGame.com — where Fezzik and other touts market and sell their picks — you’ll see a headline titled “Fezzik’s Win Streaks” next to a menu of betting packages for sale from $169 to $875 (the latter discounted from $2,500).
I asked Fezzik how much someone needs to wager to have a chance at profiting after purchasing his packages. “My advice to all regarding daily plays is to only buy them if you are a big bettor,” Fezzik responded. “Paying $20 for a best bet and betting $100 on it is going to make it impossible to win long term.”
"...Below the main bar is a daily message now emphasizing Fezzik’s “6-1 Weekend.” You can also click on a tab to view Fezzik’s win/loss record. Not including money spent on betting packages, $100 bettors were down $136 for the most recently completed seasons (NFL, CFB, CBB, NBA) when I began researching for this story. At the present, the page indicates that Fezzik’s picks are up $2,075 over the last 30 days and that $100 bettors would be up $2,992. But again, that’s not taking into account money invested in Fezzik’s betting packages. The cheapest full-season package listed runs $875 after a 60% discount. While this is more effort at transparency than other touts give, there’s more to the story."
"“I do promote my win streaks, and for those questioning why I do so, the buyer has to make his decision based on all the info,” Fezzik said. “Many want to back handicappers on short term win streaks, following the hot hand. Like an investment fund on a short term run, we provide that info along with other info.”
"What isn’t so easy to find is a long-term record of Fezzik’s picks. You can find, at least, Fezzik’s records dating back to August 2015 on Pregame’s forums, as Pregame invited an impartial third party (“Comptrbob”) to
track Fezzik’s picks. At the end of 2015, he was +4.62 units. 2016 was a solid year with Fezzik’s picks up 36.9 units at the end of the year. In 2017, they were -25.78 units, in 2018 +45.9, and as Fezzik did point out in our email exchange, his picks were -33.5 units for 2019 as of July 8th.
"Whether Pregame and Fezzik ought to get credit for tracking his
year-to-date figures but relegating that information to forum posts, compared with banners for the “weekend streak,” well, that’s for you to decide. But to be fair, it is more than touts like Vegas Dave provide."
" “Note, some enjoy just being able to hit slightly over 50%,” Fezzik explained, “and that experience makes sports betting more enjoyable. They would rather pay a fee, hit 53%, and break even. Similar to the golfer that will get the best hybrid clubs to shoot 88 instead of 90.”
...With roughly 500 followers, Miller has an exponentially smaller congregation than Fezzik (@fezziksports), Dave, and Steam Capper, each of whom have over 50K followers on Twitter alone.
"...“Personally, I am tracked by Computer Bob, an outside independent monitor on all my plays,” he [Fezzik] added."
https://sportshandle.com/buyer-beware-sports-betting-touts/