Plays range from 1 unit to 5 units!
1. Detroit -120 = 4 units
I actually considered making this play a 5 unit play, but I am not sure yet who will take the hill for Milwaukee. But my early stats show one of two pitchers, either a rookie in Villanueva or Rick Helling straight off of the 60 day DL. And I thought that Helling was dead, but he comes back to life once more!! Either starter makes my play on Detroit a winner in my opinion.
Miner is on the hill for Detroit. He has a good start going so far this year in that he is 2-1 with an ERA of 2.65. Detroit is currently on a 5 game winning streak and has won 9 out of their last 10 games. Just as important is the fact that Detroit has went 22-8 in their last 30 road games!! Here are a few trends without last nights game included:
<LI class=morehot>Tigers are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter. <LI class=morehot>Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague road games. <LI class=morehot>Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a right-handed starter. <LI class=morehot>Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. <LI class=morehot>Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. <LI class=morehot>Tigers are 3-0 in their last 3 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter. <LI class=morehot>Tigers are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. National League Central. <LI class=morehot>Tigers are 6-0 in their last 6 interleague games. <LI class=morehot>Tigers are 3-0 in their last 3 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record. <LI class=morehot>Tigers are 6-0 in their last 6 interleague games as a favorite. <LI class=morehot>Tigers are 5-0 in their last 5 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record. <LI class=morehot>Tigers are 5-0 in their last 5 interleague games as a favorite of -110 to -150. <LI class=morehot>Tigers are 15-2 in their last 17 games as a road favorite.
<LI class=more>Tigers are 18-5 in their last 23 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=more>Tigers are 16-5 in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a losing record. <LI class=more>Tigers are 22-8 in their last 30 road games. <LI class=more>Tigers are 19-7 in their last 26 during game 2 of a series. <LI class=more>Tigers are 37-14 in their last 51 games on Grass. <LI class=more>Tigers are 37-14 in their last 51 games following a win. <LI class=more>Tigers are 30-12 in their last 42 night games. <LI class=more>Tigers are 40-17 in their last 57 overall. <LI class=more>Tigers are 7-3 in their last 10 interleague night games. <LI class=more>Tigers are 37-17 in their last 54 vs. a team with a losing record. <LI class=more>Tigers are 35-17 in their last 52 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=more>Tigers are 35-17 in their last 52 games as a favorite.
2. Florida under 9 runs = 3 units
This one should be easy! I look for no more than 4 or 5 runs in this game!! Where to start!! Well, the DTRAIN is rolling again and will be on the hill for Florida. Now DTRAIN was rocked a bit in his last start, but still pitched well enough to get the win. But in his 5 previous starts before that one, he gave up 2 runs in each game except for one which he only gave up 1 run!!!
Now Danial Cabrera for baltimore has been on a similar run all season!! Cabrera gave up 3 runs in his last start, but his 2 previous starts before that he didnt give up a single run!! As as matter of fact, he has given up 2 or fewer runs in 7 out of 10 starts with three of those games no earned runs and 2 of those 1 run given up!
Here is some stats for the last 3 starts for these pitchers:
<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahl2b>Last 3</TD><TD class=datahl2b>W-L</TD><TD class=datahl2b>Tm W-L</TD><TD class=datahl2b>IP</TD><TD class=datahl2b>H</TD><TD class=datahl2b>WHIP</TD><TD class=datahl2b>ERA</TD><TD class=datahl2b>AF</TD><TD class=datahl2b>AA</TD><TD class=datahl2b>OU</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>Willis, D (L)
Cabrera, D (R) </TD><TD class=datacell>2-0
2-1</TD><TD class=datacell>3-0
2-1</TD><TD class=datacell>23.0
17.0</TD><TD class=datacell>22
13</TD><TD class=datacell>1.17
1.59</TD><TD class=datacell>2.74
1.59</TD><TD class=datacell>6.0
5.0</TD><TD class=datacell>2.7
3.7</TD><TD class=datacell>2-1
1-2</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
How about a few trends as well. I dont play by using trend data, but i know that alot of people like them.
<LI class=morehot>Under is 3-0-0 in Marlins last 3 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=morehot>Under is 5-0-0 in Marlins last 5 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-0-0 in Marlins last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record. <LI class=morehot>Under is 5-0-0 in Marlins last 5 interleague road games. <LI class=morehot>Under is 3-0-0 in Marlins last 3 Tuesday games. <LI class=morehot>Under is 3-0-0 in Marlins last 3 during game 1 of a series. <LI class=morehot>Under is 5-0-0 in Marlins last 5 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record. <LI class=morehot>Under is 7-1-0 in Marlins last 8 vs. American League East. <LI class=morehot>Under is 7-1-0 in Marlins last 8 interleague games. <LI class=morehot>Under is 13-3-0 in Marlins last 16 games following an off day. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1-0 in Marlins last 5 interleague games as an underdog. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1-0 in Marlins last 5 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1-0 in Marlins last 5 interleague night games.<LI class=morehot>Under is 5-0-0 in Willis' last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. <LI class=morehot>Under is 6-1-0 in Willis' last 7 starts as a road underdog.
<LI class=morehot>Under is 3-0-0 in Orioles last 3 interleague games as a favorite of -110 to -150. <LI class=morehot>Under is 3-0-1 in Orioles last 4 night games. <LI class=morehot>Under is 3-0-0 in Orioles last 3 games as a home favorite. <LI class=morehot>Under is 5-0-0 in Orioles last 5 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record. <LI class=morehot>Under is 3-0-0 in Orioles last 3 interleague home games vs. a left-handed starter. <LI class=morehot>Under is 3-0-0 in Orioles last 3 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=morehot>Under is 7-0-0 in Orioles last 7 interleague games as a favorite. <LI class=morehot>Under is 5-0-0 in Orioles last 5 interleague home games. <LI class=morehot>Under is 7-1-0 in Orioles last 8 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.Under is 4-1-0 in Cabrera's last 5 Tuesday starts.
After reviewing all of the data, I see a 2-1 final score DEFINITELY possible. I look for the Marlins to win it, but not betting on that one. I may add that play later though.
3. Astros under 9 runs = 4 units
Brad Radke is on the hill for Minnesota and he has been rolling lately!! In his last 4 starts, he gave up 1 earned run in 2 games and 2 earned runs in the other 2! His last start was against Boston where he only gave up 1 earned run and picked up the win!!
Oswalt has been a similar run all season! In his last 9 starts, he has given up 3 runs or less on 8 occassions.
<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahl2b>Last 3 starts</TD><TD class=datahl2b>W-L</TD><TD class=datahl2b>Tm W-L</TD><TD class=datahl2b>IP</TD><TD class=datahl2b>H</TD><TD class=datahl2b>WHIP</TD><TD class=datahl2b>ERA</TD><TD class=datahl2b>AF</TD><TD class=datahl2b>AA</TD><TD class=datahl2b>OU</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>Radke, B (R)
Oswalt, R (R) </TD><TD class=datacell>1-1
1-0</TD><TD class=datacell>2-1
1-2</TD><TD class=datacell>18.2
19.0</TD><TD class=datacell>20
17</TD><TD class=datacell>1.45
1.00</TD><TD class=datacell>1.93
1.89</TD><TD class=datacell>5.3
2.3</TD><TD class=datacell>2.7
4.0</TD><TD class=datacell>1-2
1-2</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Minnesota as a team has only given up no more than 3 runs in their last 7 games. That includes unearned runs as well!! That should tell you that the bullpen is getting the job done as well!!
How about a few useless trends just to appease the appetite!!
<LI class=morehot>Under is 5-0-0 in Twins last 5 night games. <LI class=morehot>Under is 7-0-0 in Twins last 7 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. <LI class=morehot>Under is 3-0-0 in Twins last 3 games as an underdog. <LI class=morehot>Under is 3-0-0 in Twins last 3 Tuesday games. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-0-0 in Twins last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-0-0 in Twins last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter. <LI class=morehot>Under is 3-0-0 in Twins last 3 games following an off day. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-0-0 in Twins last 4 games as an underdog of +151 to +200. <LI class=morehot>Under is 6-0-0 in Twins last 6 games as a road underdog of +151 to +200. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-0-0 in Twins last 4 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-0-0 in Twins last 4 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=morehot>Under is 7-1-1 in Twins last 9 games as a road underdog. <LI class=morehot>Under is 7-1-1 in Twins last 9 road games vs. a right-handed starter. <LI class=morehot>Under is 6-1-0 in Twins last 7 during game 1 of a series. <LI class=morehot>Under is 6-1-0 in Twins last 7 overall. <LI class=morehot>Under is 5-1-0 in Twins last 6 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=morehot>Under is 5-1-0 in Twins last 6 games following a win. <LI class=morehot>Under is 5-1-0 in Twins last 6 interleague games as an underdog. <LI class=morehot>Under is 5-1-1 in Twins last 7 interleague games as an underdog of +151 to +200. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1-0 in Twins last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1-2 in Twins last 7 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1-0 in Twins last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=more>Under is 10-3-1 in Twins last 14 road games. <LI class=more>Under is 10-3-1 in Twins last 14 on Grass. <LI class=more>Under is 5-2-0 in Twins last 7 vs. National League Central. <LI class=more>Under is 5-2-0 in Twins last 7 interleague road games. <LI class=more>Under is 5-2-0 in Twins last 7 interleague games. .
<LI class=morehot>Under is 4-0-0 in Radke's last 4 road starts. <LI class=morehot>Under is 3-0-0 in Radke's last 3 starts as a road underdog of +151 to +200. <LI class=morehot>Under is 3-0-0 in Radke's last 3 starts as an underdog. <LI class=morehot>Under is 3-0-0 in Radke's last 3 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. <LI class=morehot>Under is 12-2-2 in Radke's last 16 starts vs. National League Central. <LI class=morehot>Under is 17-4-3 in Radke's last 24 interleague starts. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1-0 in Radke's last 5 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=more>Under is 49-19-3 in Radke's last 71 starts as a road underdog. <LI class=more> <LI class=more>Under is 51-23-4 in Radke's last 78 road starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=more>Under is 68-33-5 in Radke's last 106 starts on Grass.<LI class=morehot>Under is 5-0-0 in Astros last 5 interleague night games. <LI class=morehot>Under is 3-0-0 in Astros last 3 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=morehot>Under is 6-1-0 in Astros last 7 interleague home games. <LI class=morehot>Under is 6-1-0 in Astros last 7 interleague games. <LI class=morehot>Under is 5-1-0 in Astros last 6 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter. <LI class=morehot>Under is 5-1-0 in Astros last 6 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1-0 in Astros last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter. <LI class=morehot>Under is 8-2-1 in Astros last 11 interleague games as a favorite. <LI class=more>Under is 8-3-0 in Astros last 11 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=more>Under is 5-2-0 in Astros last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter. <LI class=more>Under is 5-2-1 in Astros last 8 games following an off day. <LI class=more>Under is 7-3-0 in Astros last 10 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=more>Under is 7-3-0 in Astros last 10 home games. <LI class=more>Over is 9-4-0 in Astros last 13 games as a favorite of -151 to -200. <LI class=morehot>Under is 3-0-1 in Oswalt's last 4 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=morehot>Under is 3-0-0 in Oswalt's last 3 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1-0 in Oswalt's last 5 starts overall. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1-1 in Oswalt's last 6 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1-0 in Oswalt's last 5 starts on Grass. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1-0 in Oswalt's last 5 starts as a favorite. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1-1 in Oswalt's last 6 interleague starts.
4. LA Dodgers -180 with Penny conditional
I know, I know, chalk city!! But how can one not just LOVE Brad Penny in this spot!! Maybe you wont bet on the Dodgers, but in NO WAY could someone actually explain to me why Seattle is the pick here!! The stats just are not there to take Seattle!! Normally, I would take the runline in this spot, but I am a little worried about the DOdgers offense lately. In their last 6 games, 5 out those they scored 3 runs or less!
I sure wish that my beloved Astros could trade for Penny. Take a look at his stats this year compared to Joel Pineiro!
<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahl2b width="29%">Overall</TD><TD class=datahl2b>W-L</TD><TD class=datahl2b>Tm W-L</TD><TD class=datahl2b>IP</TD><TD class=datahl2b> H</TD><TD class=datahl2b> WHIP</TD><TD class=datahl2b> ERA</TD><TD class=datahl2b> AF</TD><TD class=datahl2b>AA</TD><TD class=datahl2b>OU</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>Pineiro, J (R)
Penny, B (R) </TD><TD class=datacell>5-7
7-1</TD><TD class=datacell>5-9
9-5</TD><TD class=datacell>83.0
83.0</TD><TD class=datacell> 99
72</TD><TD class=datacell> 1.57
1.16</TD><TD class=datacell> 5.42
2.49</TD><TD class=datacell> 4.9
4.9</TD><TD class=datacell>6.1
2.9</TD><TD class=datacell>8-5
6-7</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2b>Last 3 starts</TD><TD class=datahl2b>W-L</TD><TD class=datahl2b>Tm W-L</TD><TD class=datahl2b>IP</TD><TD class=datahl2b> H</TD><TD class=datahl2b> WHIP</TD><TD class=datahl2b> ERA</TD><TD class=datahl2b> AF</TD><TD class=datahl2b>AA</TD><TD class=datahl2b>OU</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>Pineiro, J (R)
Penny, B (R) </TD><TD class=datacell>1-2
2-0</TD><TD class=datacell>1-2
2-1</TD><TD class=datacell>16.1
20.1</TD><TD class=datacell> 22
11</TD><TD class=datacell> 1.96
0.89</TD><TD class=datacell> 6.61
1.33</TD><TD class=datacell> 5.7
4.7</TD><TD class=datacell>5.0
2.3</TD><TD class=datacell>2-0
1-1</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
5. San Francisco under 8 = 2 units
This pick goes against almost EVERYONE else! All of the squares will be on the over here, so I will take the under. Here is why!
<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahl2b width="29%">Overall</TD><TD class=datahl2b>W-L</TD><TD class=datahl2b>Tm W-L</TD><TD class=datahl2b>IP</TD><TD class=datahl2b>H</TD><TD class=datahl2b> WHIP</TD><TD class=datahl2b> ERA</TD><TD class=datahl2b>AF</TD><TD class=datahl2b>AA</TD><TD class=datahl2b>OU</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>Lackey, J (R)
Morris, M (R) </TD><TD class=datacell>4-4
4-7</TD><TD class=datacell>7-7
5-9</TD><TD class=datacell>91.0
88.0</TD><TD class=datacell>72
89</TD><TD class=datacell> 1.15
1.33</TD><TD class=datacell> 3.46
4.81</TD><TD class=datacell>5.4
4.5</TD><TD class=datacell>5.1
4.9</TD><TD class=datacell>9-5
6-7</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2b>Last 3</TD><TD class=datahl2b>W-L</TD><TD class=datahl2b>Tm W-L</TD><TD class=datahl2b>IP </TD><TD class=datahl2b> H</TD><TD class=datahl2b> WHIP</TD><TD class=datahl2b> ERA</TD><TD class=datahl2b>AF</TD><TD class=datahl2b>AA</TD><TD class=datahl2b>OU</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>Lackey, J (R)
Morris, M (R) </TD><TD class=datacell>1-1
1-1</TD><TD class=datacell>2-1
2-1</TD><TD class=datacell>18.2
23.0</TD><TD class=datacell> 15
22</TD><TD class=datacell> 1.23
1.13 </TD><TD class=datacell> 3.86
3.13</TD><TD class=datacell>7.7
5.7</TD><TD class=datacell>5.3
3.7</TD><TD class=datacell>2-1
1-2</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Stats above are not exactly reflective of an under. But in 2 of Lackey's last 3 starts, he gave up NO earned runs!! In Lackey's last 10 starts, he only gave up more than 4 runs on one occassion with 3 games of no earned runs and 1 earned run in another.
In Morris's last 6 starts, he has given up 3 runs or less in all games. This game is also being played in a National League park, so the pitcher must bat!
Also, in the Angels last 9 games, they have scored 3 runs or less in 6 of those games and in the other three they only scored 4 runs. In San Francisco's last 3 games, they have scored a total of 2,1 and 1 runs! Yes that is right, ONLY 4 RUNS IN 3 COMPLETE GAMES!!!
All in all, this play is risky, but I will go against the public here and take a shot!!
1. Detroit -120 = 4 units
I actually considered making this play a 5 unit play, but I am not sure yet who will take the hill for Milwaukee. But my early stats show one of two pitchers, either a rookie in Villanueva or Rick Helling straight off of the 60 day DL. And I thought that Helling was dead, but he comes back to life once more!! Either starter makes my play on Detroit a winner in my opinion.
Miner is on the hill for Detroit. He has a good start going so far this year in that he is 2-1 with an ERA of 2.65. Detroit is currently on a 5 game winning streak and has won 9 out of their last 10 games. Just as important is the fact that Detroit has went 22-8 in their last 30 road games!! Here are a few trends without last nights game included:
<LI class=morehot>Tigers are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter. <LI class=morehot>Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague road games. <LI class=morehot>Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a right-handed starter. <LI class=morehot>Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. <LI class=morehot>Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. <LI class=morehot>Tigers are 3-0 in their last 3 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter. <LI class=morehot>Tigers are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. National League Central. <LI class=morehot>Tigers are 6-0 in their last 6 interleague games. <LI class=morehot>Tigers are 3-0 in their last 3 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record. <LI class=morehot>Tigers are 6-0 in their last 6 interleague games as a favorite. <LI class=morehot>Tigers are 5-0 in their last 5 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record. <LI class=morehot>Tigers are 5-0 in their last 5 interleague games as a favorite of -110 to -150. <LI class=morehot>Tigers are 15-2 in their last 17 games as a road favorite.
<LI class=more>Tigers are 18-5 in their last 23 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=more>Tigers are 16-5 in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a losing record. <LI class=more>Tigers are 22-8 in their last 30 road games. <LI class=more>Tigers are 19-7 in their last 26 during game 2 of a series. <LI class=more>Tigers are 37-14 in their last 51 games on Grass. <LI class=more>Tigers are 37-14 in their last 51 games following a win. <LI class=more>Tigers are 30-12 in their last 42 night games. <LI class=more>Tigers are 40-17 in their last 57 overall. <LI class=more>Tigers are 7-3 in their last 10 interleague night games. <LI class=more>Tigers are 37-17 in their last 54 vs. a team with a losing record. <LI class=more>Tigers are 35-17 in their last 52 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=more>Tigers are 35-17 in their last 52 games as a favorite.
2. Florida under 9 runs = 3 units
This one should be easy! I look for no more than 4 or 5 runs in this game!! Where to start!! Well, the DTRAIN is rolling again and will be on the hill for Florida. Now DTRAIN was rocked a bit in his last start, but still pitched well enough to get the win. But in his 5 previous starts before that one, he gave up 2 runs in each game except for one which he only gave up 1 run!!!
Now Danial Cabrera for baltimore has been on a similar run all season!! Cabrera gave up 3 runs in his last start, but his 2 previous starts before that he didnt give up a single run!! As as matter of fact, he has given up 2 or fewer runs in 7 out of 10 starts with three of those games no earned runs and 2 of those 1 run given up!
Here is some stats for the last 3 starts for these pitchers:
<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahl2b>Last 3</TD><TD class=datahl2b>W-L</TD><TD class=datahl2b>Tm W-L</TD><TD class=datahl2b>IP</TD><TD class=datahl2b>H</TD><TD class=datahl2b>WHIP</TD><TD class=datahl2b>ERA</TD><TD class=datahl2b>AF</TD><TD class=datahl2b>AA</TD><TD class=datahl2b>OU</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>Willis, D (L)
Cabrera, D (R) </TD><TD class=datacell>2-0
2-1</TD><TD class=datacell>3-0
2-1</TD><TD class=datacell>23.0
17.0</TD><TD class=datacell>22
13</TD><TD class=datacell>1.17
1.59</TD><TD class=datacell>2.74
1.59</TD><TD class=datacell>6.0
5.0</TD><TD class=datacell>2.7
3.7</TD><TD class=datacell>2-1
1-2</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
How about a few trends as well. I dont play by using trend data, but i know that alot of people like them.
<LI class=morehot>Under is 3-0-0 in Marlins last 3 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=morehot>Under is 5-0-0 in Marlins last 5 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-0-0 in Marlins last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record. <LI class=morehot>Under is 5-0-0 in Marlins last 5 interleague road games. <LI class=morehot>Under is 3-0-0 in Marlins last 3 Tuesday games. <LI class=morehot>Under is 3-0-0 in Marlins last 3 during game 1 of a series. <LI class=morehot>Under is 5-0-0 in Marlins last 5 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record. <LI class=morehot>Under is 7-1-0 in Marlins last 8 vs. American League East. <LI class=morehot>Under is 7-1-0 in Marlins last 8 interleague games. <LI class=morehot>Under is 13-3-0 in Marlins last 16 games following an off day. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1-0 in Marlins last 5 interleague games as an underdog. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1-0 in Marlins last 5 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1-0 in Marlins last 5 interleague night games.<LI class=morehot>Under is 5-0-0 in Willis' last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. <LI class=morehot>Under is 6-1-0 in Willis' last 7 starts as a road underdog.
<LI class=morehot>Under is 3-0-0 in Orioles last 3 interleague games as a favorite of -110 to -150. <LI class=morehot>Under is 3-0-1 in Orioles last 4 night games. <LI class=morehot>Under is 3-0-0 in Orioles last 3 games as a home favorite. <LI class=morehot>Under is 5-0-0 in Orioles last 5 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record. <LI class=morehot>Under is 3-0-0 in Orioles last 3 interleague home games vs. a left-handed starter. <LI class=morehot>Under is 3-0-0 in Orioles last 3 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=morehot>Under is 7-0-0 in Orioles last 7 interleague games as a favorite. <LI class=morehot>Under is 5-0-0 in Orioles last 5 interleague home games. <LI class=morehot>Under is 7-1-0 in Orioles last 8 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.Under is 4-1-0 in Cabrera's last 5 Tuesday starts.
After reviewing all of the data, I see a 2-1 final score DEFINITELY possible. I look for the Marlins to win it, but not betting on that one. I may add that play later though.
3. Astros under 9 runs = 4 units
Brad Radke is on the hill for Minnesota and he has been rolling lately!! In his last 4 starts, he gave up 1 earned run in 2 games and 2 earned runs in the other 2! His last start was against Boston where he only gave up 1 earned run and picked up the win!!
Oswalt has been a similar run all season! In his last 9 starts, he has given up 3 runs or less on 8 occassions.
<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahl2b>Last 3 starts</TD><TD class=datahl2b>W-L</TD><TD class=datahl2b>Tm W-L</TD><TD class=datahl2b>IP</TD><TD class=datahl2b>H</TD><TD class=datahl2b>WHIP</TD><TD class=datahl2b>ERA</TD><TD class=datahl2b>AF</TD><TD class=datahl2b>AA</TD><TD class=datahl2b>OU</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>Radke, B (R)
Oswalt, R (R) </TD><TD class=datacell>1-1
1-0</TD><TD class=datacell>2-1
1-2</TD><TD class=datacell>18.2
19.0</TD><TD class=datacell>20
17</TD><TD class=datacell>1.45
1.00</TD><TD class=datacell>1.93
1.89</TD><TD class=datacell>5.3
2.3</TD><TD class=datacell>2.7
4.0</TD><TD class=datacell>1-2
1-2</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Minnesota as a team has only given up no more than 3 runs in their last 7 games. That includes unearned runs as well!! That should tell you that the bullpen is getting the job done as well!!
How about a few useless trends just to appease the appetite!!
<LI class=morehot>Under is 5-0-0 in Twins last 5 night games. <LI class=morehot>Under is 7-0-0 in Twins last 7 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. <LI class=morehot>Under is 3-0-0 in Twins last 3 games as an underdog. <LI class=morehot>Under is 3-0-0 in Twins last 3 Tuesday games. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-0-0 in Twins last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-0-0 in Twins last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter. <LI class=morehot>Under is 3-0-0 in Twins last 3 games following an off day. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-0-0 in Twins last 4 games as an underdog of +151 to +200. <LI class=morehot>Under is 6-0-0 in Twins last 6 games as a road underdog of +151 to +200. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-0-0 in Twins last 4 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-0-0 in Twins last 4 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=morehot>Under is 7-1-1 in Twins last 9 games as a road underdog. <LI class=morehot>Under is 7-1-1 in Twins last 9 road games vs. a right-handed starter. <LI class=morehot>Under is 6-1-0 in Twins last 7 during game 1 of a series. <LI class=morehot>Under is 6-1-0 in Twins last 7 overall. <LI class=morehot>Under is 5-1-0 in Twins last 6 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=morehot>Under is 5-1-0 in Twins last 6 games following a win. <LI class=morehot>Under is 5-1-0 in Twins last 6 interleague games as an underdog. <LI class=morehot>Under is 5-1-1 in Twins last 7 interleague games as an underdog of +151 to +200. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1-0 in Twins last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1-2 in Twins last 7 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1-0 in Twins last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=more>Under is 10-3-1 in Twins last 14 road games. <LI class=more>Under is 10-3-1 in Twins last 14 on Grass. <LI class=more>Under is 5-2-0 in Twins last 7 vs. National League Central. <LI class=more>Under is 5-2-0 in Twins last 7 interleague road games. <LI class=more>Under is 5-2-0 in Twins last 7 interleague games. .
<LI class=morehot>Under is 4-0-0 in Radke's last 4 road starts. <LI class=morehot>Under is 3-0-0 in Radke's last 3 starts as a road underdog of +151 to +200. <LI class=morehot>Under is 3-0-0 in Radke's last 3 starts as an underdog. <LI class=morehot>Under is 3-0-0 in Radke's last 3 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. <LI class=morehot>Under is 12-2-2 in Radke's last 16 starts vs. National League Central. <LI class=morehot>Under is 17-4-3 in Radke's last 24 interleague starts. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1-0 in Radke's last 5 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=more>Under is 49-19-3 in Radke's last 71 starts as a road underdog. <LI class=more> <LI class=more>Under is 51-23-4 in Radke's last 78 road starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=more>Under is 68-33-5 in Radke's last 106 starts on Grass.<LI class=morehot>Under is 5-0-0 in Astros last 5 interleague night games. <LI class=morehot>Under is 3-0-0 in Astros last 3 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. <LI class=morehot>Under is 6-1-0 in Astros last 7 interleague home games. <LI class=morehot>Under is 6-1-0 in Astros last 7 interleague games. <LI class=morehot>Under is 5-1-0 in Astros last 6 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter. <LI class=morehot>Under is 5-1-0 in Astros last 6 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1-0 in Astros last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter. <LI class=morehot>Under is 8-2-1 in Astros last 11 interleague games as a favorite. <LI class=more>Under is 8-3-0 in Astros last 11 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=more>Under is 5-2-0 in Astros last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter. <LI class=more>Under is 5-2-1 in Astros last 8 games following an off day. <LI class=more>Under is 7-3-0 in Astros last 10 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=more>Under is 7-3-0 in Astros last 10 home games. <LI class=more>Over is 9-4-0 in Astros last 13 games as a favorite of -151 to -200. <LI class=morehot>Under is 3-0-1 in Oswalt's last 4 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=morehot>Under is 3-0-0 in Oswalt's last 3 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1-0 in Oswalt's last 5 starts overall. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1-1 in Oswalt's last 6 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1-0 in Oswalt's last 5 starts on Grass. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1-0 in Oswalt's last 5 starts as a favorite. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1-1 in Oswalt's last 6 interleague starts.
4. LA Dodgers -180 with Penny conditional
I know, I know, chalk city!! But how can one not just LOVE Brad Penny in this spot!! Maybe you wont bet on the Dodgers, but in NO WAY could someone actually explain to me why Seattle is the pick here!! The stats just are not there to take Seattle!! Normally, I would take the runline in this spot, but I am a little worried about the DOdgers offense lately. In their last 6 games, 5 out those they scored 3 runs or less!
I sure wish that my beloved Astros could trade for Penny. Take a look at his stats this year compared to Joel Pineiro!
<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahl2b width="29%">Overall</TD><TD class=datahl2b>W-L</TD><TD class=datahl2b>Tm W-L</TD><TD class=datahl2b>IP</TD><TD class=datahl2b> H</TD><TD class=datahl2b> WHIP</TD><TD class=datahl2b> ERA</TD><TD class=datahl2b> AF</TD><TD class=datahl2b>AA</TD><TD class=datahl2b>OU</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>Pineiro, J (R)
Penny, B (R) </TD><TD class=datacell>5-7
7-1</TD><TD class=datacell>5-9
9-5</TD><TD class=datacell>83.0
83.0</TD><TD class=datacell> 99
72</TD><TD class=datacell> 1.57
1.16</TD><TD class=datacell> 5.42
2.49</TD><TD class=datacell> 4.9
4.9</TD><TD class=datacell>6.1
2.9</TD><TD class=datacell>8-5
6-7</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2b>Last 3 starts</TD><TD class=datahl2b>W-L</TD><TD class=datahl2b>Tm W-L</TD><TD class=datahl2b>IP</TD><TD class=datahl2b> H</TD><TD class=datahl2b> WHIP</TD><TD class=datahl2b> ERA</TD><TD class=datahl2b> AF</TD><TD class=datahl2b>AA</TD><TD class=datahl2b>OU</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>Pineiro, J (R)
Penny, B (R) </TD><TD class=datacell>1-2
2-0</TD><TD class=datacell>1-2
2-1</TD><TD class=datacell>16.1
20.1</TD><TD class=datacell> 22
11</TD><TD class=datacell> 1.96
0.89</TD><TD class=datacell> 6.61
1.33</TD><TD class=datacell> 5.7
4.7</TD><TD class=datacell>5.0
2.3</TD><TD class=datacell>2-0
1-1</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
5. San Francisco under 8 = 2 units
This pick goes against almost EVERYONE else! All of the squares will be on the over here, so I will take the under. Here is why!
<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahl2b width="29%">Overall</TD><TD class=datahl2b>W-L</TD><TD class=datahl2b>Tm W-L</TD><TD class=datahl2b>IP</TD><TD class=datahl2b>H</TD><TD class=datahl2b> WHIP</TD><TD class=datahl2b> ERA</TD><TD class=datahl2b>AF</TD><TD class=datahl2b>AA</TD><TD class=datahl2b>OU</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>Lackey, J (R)
Morris, M (R) </TD><TD class=datacell>4-4
4-7</TD><TD class=datacell>7-7
5-9</TD><TD class=datacell>91.0
88.0</TD><TD class=datacell>72
89</TD><TD class=datacell> 1.15
1.33</TD><TD class=datacell> 3.46
4.81</TD><TD class=datacell>5.4
4.5</TD><TD class=datacell>5.1
4.9</TD><TD class=datacell>9-5
6-7</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2b>Last 3</TD><TD class=datahl2b>W-L</TD><TD class=datahl2b>Tm W-L</TD><TD class=datahl2b>IP </TD><TD class=datahl2b> H</TD><TD class=datahl2b> WHIP</TD><TD class=datahl2b> ERA</TD><TD class=datahl2b>AF</TD><TD class=datahl2b>AA</TD><TD class=datahl2b>OU</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>Lackey, J (R)
Morris, M (R) </TD><TD class=datacell>1-1
1-1</TD><TD class=datacell>2-1
2-1</TD><TD class=datacell>18.2
23.0</TD><TD class=datacell> 15
22</TD><TD class=datacell> 1.23
1.13 </TD><TD class=datacell> 3.86
3.13</TD><TD class=datacell>7.7
5.7</TD><TD class=datacell>5.3
3.7</TD><TD class=datacell>2-1
1-2</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Stats above are not exactly reflective of an under. But in 2 of Lackey's last 3 starts, he gave up NO earned runs!! In Lackey's last 10 starts, he only gave up more than 4 runs on one occassion with 3 games of no earned runs and 1 earned run in another.
In Morris's last 6 starts, he has given up 3 runs or less in all games. This game is also being played in a National League park, so the pitcher must bat!
Also, in the Angels last 9 games, they have scored 3 runs or less in 6 of those games and in the other three they only scored 4 runs. In San Francisco's last 3 games, they have scored a total of 2,1 and 1 runs! Yes that is right, ONLY 4 RUNS IN 3 COMPLETE GAMES!!!
All in all, this play is risky, but I will go against the public here and take a shot!!
