buffettgambler
EOG Veteran
Since I usually am unable to finish my football write ups until Saturday, I was wonder if it is better to put in my write ups individually when they are done, and then Saturday putting them in a compilation thread, or just post them all at once together on Saturday?
Saints @ Packers
Play: Packers +2
Comment:
Pros:
This is a huge game for the Packers as they were downright embarrassed in their home opener last week, as they were shut out for the first time since 1991. All of last year, the only talk about the Packers was how bad of an underachieving team they were, and how Farve?s skills have diminished. The same talk has haunted them during the off season as soon as Farve announced his return to the team. After last week, Packers critics have reached an all time high. Simply put, the Packers and Farve are in dire need to put forth a solid performance, or this train wreck will just get progressively worse. With that said, this is an ideal spot for the Packers to quiet their critics, as they are up against a team that they match up well against, the same team in which they thoroughly dominated last year, as they were able to route the Saints 52-3.
After being shut out last week, expect a more aggressive offensive approach against the Saints. A large part of Farve?s problems last year was due to his offensive lines inability to give him time, forcing him to throw a lot of arrant passes that he forced out of frustration. During the off season, the Packers developed a zone blocking scheme to help off set their lack of talent that they have at OL. This is the exact type of blocking scheme in which the Saints pass rush has suffered against, as their three man tackle rotation has the propensity to get turned in non-man blocking cover schemes. Although they held their own against the Browns in the first game, it was against one of the worst interior lines in football that utilize more of a man blocking scheme. This should allow more time for Farve to find seems in the Saints cover 2 defense that they have now installed. Expect a lot of time in the pocktet to allow Farve to be able to find his fair share of mismatches in the secondary, as the Saints have inexperienced safeties that were caught out of position on multiple occasions last week, but the Browns were just unable to capitalize on it. Farve worked all pre season on playing a more conservative passing game, and has shown a commitment to not force arrant passes when under pressure, rather, use more outlet passes. With Green now back in the backfield, this approach should be much more effective, as he has always been a threat in the passing game, while Farve has established a comfort level with him. The Packers passing game also struggled last year in large part to falling behind early and becoming one dimensional, allowing their offense to become a lot more predictable and vulnerable to the blitz. Not having a good running back only magnified this problem. Now that Green is back, they should now become a more balanced offense. Green really picked up the zone blocking scheme well last week, as he was able to establish an efficient running game against a stout Bears run defense. I am not putting too much stock into the Saints solid run defense last week, as it was against a completely different style of running game. They actually have a vulnerable front seven against the run game, while their linebacker trio might be the worst in football. They have not proven capable of fulfilling gap assignments, which does not bode well in stopping Green, as he has one of the best vision compared to any other back in football. The Packers will also more than likely get Henderson back on the field on Sunday, who has been the heart and sole of this offense for years. He should provide more running room for Green, and should also provide Farve with an outlet pass when under pressure.
Bottom Line: There are not many defenses in which the Packers offense matches up well against, but the Saints are one of them. The Saints lack the ability to put pressure on the quarterback, something in which has lead Farve into a lot of mistakes. They also lack experience safeties that can lure Farve into a false sense of security, while Farve should be able to take advantage of their propensity to get themselves out of position. The Saints also lack a solid run defense to force the Packers into a more one dimensional passing game, giving them a lot more leverage with their playbook, and also opening up the play action pass which has not been nearly as efficient the last season or so. The addition of Robinson should also give the Packers a much needed boost in the special teams department.
The Packers don?t have the best defense around, but there are some areas in which I like how they match up against the Saints offense. What the Packers do have on defense is a solid cornerback tandem with Woodson and Harris. Both have the ability to play aggressive and utilize a press coverage scheme. This is a huge asset you want going against a west coast offense that is highly dependent on timing routes and short passes that can easily be affected by such presses. Horn has lost a step or two with ages and injuries, and Woodson should be able to handle him most of the game in single coverage. Horn also lacks a number two threat to take away attention on his side of the field. Although Colston showed some promise during the first game of the season, he is not starter material, and should be overmatched by Harris. The ability of both corners to handle the single coverage is huge, as it should give the Packers more leverage in covering Bush in the passing game. Manuel really lacks covering skills and would be overmatched by Bush, while there isn?t a linebacker that could cover him one on one. Poppinga is the weak link in the Packers defense, and the Saints should expose this by attacking that side of the field with Bush. However, if he is double teamed, the Packers will be better able to limit his effectiveness. The Saints have two running backs that could be starters in this league and make a nice compliment to one another. However, with both fullbacks injured, one has to wonder how many holes they will get in the running game. Expect the Packers to try to stop the Saints running game with a lot of run blitzes. Manuel is a much better run defender than as a cover 2 safety, and should be put in the box during expected running plays. The Saints have a sub par offensive line, which should force the Saints running backs to make a lot happen on their own. The Packers have a solid linebacker combination of Barnett and Hawk, while the addition of Pickett should help shore up the Packers interior run defense.
Bottom Line: The Packers aggressive corners and lack of experience with their safeties makes them prone to allowing a lot of big plays. However, the Saints lack the personnel to take advantage of this, as Horn is not a deep threat, nor does Bress have the arm to beat defenses with deep second and third level passes. The ability to double Bush should allow the Packers to limit his effectiveness in the passing game, while a sub par offensive line and no fullbacks on the field for the Saints on Sunday should make it hard for them to create running space for McCallister and Bush.
Cons:
It?s a risk betting on the Packers right now, as they have not given any one reason to do so for nearly a year now. Just when you thought that a brand new start will do them some good, they put in a performance that has actually made them look worse than last year. Farve continues to throw interceptions, while Jennings, Ferguson and Franks really have to step up their level of play if they want to take advantage of the Saints vulnerable secondary. Even with an effective running game, the Packers were unable to put points on the board. The over reliance on Driver in the passing game could prove costly, as the Saints have a solid corner that could limit his effectiveness with McKenzie. If the Saints attack the middle of the passing blocking scheme with an interior blitzes, the Packers might get themselves in trouble, as the zone blocking scheme might crumble with a lack of experience with the Packers interior line. This could lead Farve into the costly mistakes that he has grown accustomed too. The Packers defenses lacks tacking skills and are vulnerable in the open field. This is a concern, as Bress does a good job spreading the ball around, and has a couple of players that are deadly in open space. The Saints will counter the lack of having a fullback on Sunday by putting McCallister and Bush on the field at the same time. This might make them a better and harder offense to defend, and also making the Packers more vulnerable in allowing the big play. The Packers cover 2 defense doesn?t appear to suit them well, as their safties struggle in pass coverage, while both their corners were constantly beat at the line against the Bears receivers. This is not a good sign, as Horn is one of the hardest receivers to jam. It might be prudent to wait for the Packers to show some signs of life before putting money on them. A two point spread really doesn?t do much either, and a money line play should be considered if one likes the Packers.
Conclusion:
Call me crazy, but I am going to take my chances on the Packers this week. If they are going to win a game, this is the game in which they will do it, as the Saints lack the ability to take advantage of almost all the Packers weaknesses on both sides of the ball. Expect an angry and motivated Packers team to come out and give a potentially overconfident Saints team a run for their money. I would not be surprised in the least to see the Packers win this game.
Saints @ Packers
Play: Packers +2
Comment:
Pros:
This is a huge game for the Packers as they were downright embarrassed in their home opener last week, as they were shut out for the first time since 1991. All of last year, the only talk about the Packers was how bad of an underachieving team they were, and how Farve?s skills have diminished. The same talk has haunted them during the off season as soon as Farve announced his return to the team. After last week, Packers critics have reached an all time high. Simply put, the Packers and Farve are in dire need to put forth a solid performance, or this train wreck will just get progressively worse. With that said, this is an ideal spot for the Packers to quiet their critics, as they are up against a team that they match up well against, the same team in which they thoroughly dominated last year, as they were able to route the Saints 52-3.
After being shut out last week, expect a more aggressive offensive approach against the Saints. A large part of Farve?s problems last year was due to his offensive lines inability to give him time, forcing him to throw a lot of arrant passes that he forced out of frustration. During the off season, the Packers developed a zone blocking scheme to help off set their lack of talent that they have at OL. This is the exact type of blocking scheme in which the Saints pass rush has suffered against, as their three man tackle rotation has the propensity to get turned in non-man blocking cover schemes. Although they held their own against the Browns in the first game, it was against one of the worst interior lines in football that utilize more of a man blocking scheme. This should allow more time for Farve to find seems in the Saints cover 2 defense that they have now installed. Expect a lot of time in the pocktet to allow Farve to be able to find his fair share of mismatches in the secondary, as the Saints have inexperienced safeties that were caught out of position on multiple occasions last week, but the Browns were just unable to capitalize on it. Farve worked all pre season on playing a more conservative passing game, and has shown a commitment to not force arrant passes when under pressure, rather, use more outlet passes. With Green now back in the backfield, this approach should be much more effective, as he has always been a threat in the passing game, while Farve has established a comfort level with him. The Packers passing game also struggled last year in large part to falling behind early and becoming one dimensional, allowing their offense to become a lot more predictable and vulnerable to the blitz. Not having a good running back only magnified this problem. Now that Green is back, they should now become a more balanced offense. Green really picked up the zone blocking scheme well last week, as he was able to establish an efficient running game against a stout Bears run defense. I am not putting too much stock into the Saints solid run defense last week, as it was against a completely different style of running game. They actually have a vulnerable front seven against the run game, while their linebacker trio might be the worst in football. They have not proven capable of fulfilling gap assignments, which does not bode well in stopping Green, as he has one of the best vision compared to any other back in football. The Packers will also more than likely get Henderson back on the field on Sunday, who has been the heart and sole of this offense for years. He should provide more running room for Green, and should also provide Farve with an outlet pass when under pressure.
Bottom Line: There are not many defenses in which the Packers offense matches up well against, but the Saints are one of them. The Saints lack the ability to put pressure on the quarterback, something in which has lead Farve into a lot of mistakes. They also lack experience safeties that can lure Farve into a false sense of security, while Farve should be able to take advantage of their propensity to get themselves out of position. The Saints also lack a solid run defense to force the Packers into a more one dimensional passing game, giving them a lot more leverage with their playbook, and also opening up the play action pass which has not been nearly as efficient the last season or so. The addition of Robinson should also give the Packers a much needed boost in the special teams department.
The Packers don?t have the best defense around, but there are some areas in which I like how they match up against the Saints offense. What the Packers do have on defense is a solid cornerback tandem with Woodson and Harris. Both have the ability to play aggressive and utilize a press coverage scheme. This is a huge asset you want going against a west coast offense that is highly dependent on timing routes and short passes that can easily be affected by such presses. Horn has lost a step or two with ages and injuries, and Woodson should be able to handle him most of the game in single coverage. Horn also lacks a number two threat to take away attention on his side of the field. Although Colston showed some promise during the first game of the season, he is not starter material, and should be overmatched by Harris. The ability of both corners to handle the single coverage is huge, as it should give the Packers more leverage in covering Bush in the passing game. Manuel really lacks covering skills and would be overmatched by Bush, while there isn?t a linebacker that could cover him one on one. Poppinga is the weak link in the Packers defense, and the Saints should expose this by attacking that side of the field with Bush. However, if he is double teamed, the Packers will be better able to limit his effectiveness. The Saints have two running backs that could be starters in this league and make a nice compliment to one another. However, with both fullbacks injured, one has to wonder how many holes they will get in the running game. Expect the Packers to try to stop the Saints running game with a lot of run blitzes. Manuel is a much better run defender than as a cover 2 safety, and should be put in the box during expected running plays. The Saints have a sub par offensive line, which should force the Saints running backs to make a lot happen on their own. The Packers have a solid linebacker combination of Barnett and Hawk, while the addition of Pickett should help shore up the Packers interior run defense.
Bottom Line: The Packers aggressive corners and lack of experience with their safeties makes them prone to allowing a lot of big plays. However, the Saints lack the personnel to take advantage of this, as Horn is not a deep threat, nor does Bress have the arm to beat defenses with deep second and third level passes. The ability to double Bush should allow the Packers to limit his effectiveness in the passing game, while a sub par offensive line and no fullbacks on the field for the Saints on Sunday should make it hard for them to create running space for McCallister and Bush.
Cons:
It?s a risk betting on the Packers right now, as they have not given any one reason to do so for nearly a year now. Just when you thought that a brand new start will do them some good, they put in a performance that has actually made them look worse than last year. Farve continues to throw interceptions, while Jennings, Ferguson and Franks really have to step up their level of play if they want to take advantage of the Saints vulnerable secondary. Even with an effective running game, the Packers were unable to put points on the board. The over reliance on Driver in the passing game could prove costly, as the Saints have a solid corner that could limit his effectiveness with McKenzie. If the Saints attack the middle of the passing blocking scheme with an interior blitzes, the Packers might get themselves in trouble, as the zone blocking scheme might crumble with a lack of experience with the Packers interior line. This could lead Farve into the costly mistakes that he has grown accustomed too. The Packers defenses lacks tacking skills and are vulnerable in the open field. This is a concern, as Bress does a good job spreading the ball around, and has a couple of players that are deadly in open space. The Saints will counter the lack of having a fullback on Sunday by putting McCallister and Bush on the field at the same time. This might make them a better and harder offense to defend, and also making the Packers more vulnerable in allowing the big play. The Packers cover 2 defense doesn?t appear to suit them well, as their safties struggle in pass coverage, while both their corners were constantly beat at the line against the Bears receivers. This is not a good sign, as Horn is one of the hardest receivers to jam. It might be prudent to wait for the Packers to show some signs of life before putting money on them. A two point spread really doesn?t do much either, and a money line play should be considered if one likes the Packers.
Conclusion:
Call me crazy, but I am going to take my chances on the Packers this week. If they are going to win a game, this is the game in which they will do it, as the Saints lack the ability to take advantage of almost all the Packers weaknesses on both sides of the ball. Expect an angry and motivated Packers team to come out and give a potentially overconfident Saints team a run for their money. I would not be surprised in the least to see the Packers win this game.
