Re: NFL Week 4: Week Long Thread
Chargers @ Ravens
Play: Ravens +3
Comment:
Pros:
Note: I posted the Ravens as a play shortly after the opening line came out at +3 as I felt that the spread would go down from there.
Both teams are coming into this game yet to suffer a loss. The Chargers dominated their first two opponents, but they happened to be arguably the worst two teams in the league. The Ravens have won their first three games, and although the level of their competition can be construed as higher, they have yet to play a team that has achieved a win this year as well. It is safe to say that this will be both teams first real test. It is also safe to say that these two teams might be the hardest teams to run against, leading me to believe that the quarterback will have an influential bearing on the outcome of this game. That advantage clearly goes to the proven and more experienced McNair.
Although I feel that Rivers is a quarterback with a lot of upside potential and is already better than about half the starting quarterbacks in the league right now, he simply is just not ready to play this type of game on the road. In the first two games he has had the luxury of having Tomlinson and his defense bail him out, and allow him to play the supplemental quarterback role. However, going up against the number one ranked run defense in the league, his role should certainly change. The Chargers would love to establish a running game early in this game to take the pressure off of Rivers and quiet the crowd. Although they have the best running back in football, he has been known to get shutdown in certain types of games, and this has one of those types of games written all over it. Expect the Ravens to throw a lot of complex and shifting eight and nine man fronts to dare Rivers to beat him with his arm. The Ravens already have one of the hardest front sevens in football to run against, and when they decide to stack the box, they are nearly impossible to run against, even for a running back as talented as Tomlinson. With the 8 man box, the lineman?s job will be to hold up the Chargers blockers to free up space for their linebackers to shoot the gaps before the running play gets developed. This will prevent Tomlinson from consistently hitting the higher gear, and disrupt his running plays early. The Ravens line has done an excellent job in this role during the first three games, and the Ravens have consistently shut down the opponents running game without having to stack the box. Even if the Chargers running game is not effective, they will be reluctant to abandon it, as they just don?t have the confidence in Rivers yet. This should force them into more third and longs and make the Chargers have to run inefficient plays. On passing situations, the Ravens will utilize a lot of exotic blitzes to confuse Rivers and force him into potential turnover mistakes. The Chargers would like to use a lot of short passing plays to counter the dominant pass rush the Ravens poses, however, chipping away yards via the passing game is just not something that is easily done against the Ravens. Last year, Gates was a perfect antidote for Brees to counter the pass rush, as he was able to provide him as open target on three step drop back passes. Although one would assume that would be the case for Rivers as well, there just doesn?t seem yet to be chemistry between the two players, as he did not play a big role in either of the first two games, and has only managed six catches. He will also be matched up against the best safety in the league, which might be the only safety that can handle him in one on one coverage, while the Ravens can certainly limit Gates production with doubling him with underneath linebacker coverage. With the Chargers two biggest weapons more than likely contained, the Chargers will more than likely have to look elsewhere for offensive production. However, the Chargers don?t have a solid wide receiver group, and is a finesse group that is most vulnerable against aggressive corners that use a lot of press coverage schemes. Mcallister is one of the best and most physical corners in the league who should have no problem containing McCardell. McCardell is prone to getting slow starts off the line when jammed, something McCallister does well. Mcallister also has the speed to catch up with McCardell after the press coverage. He should have no problem employing single coverage against him the entire game. The same could be said for Rolle who matches up well with an undersized Parker. This will allow the Ravens safeties to concentrate more in the middle of the field and keep their attention on Tomlinson and Gates. The Ravens have more playmakers on defense compared to any other defense in the league. They are usually a nightmare for inexperienced quarterbacks, especially when playing at home. Don?t be surprised if they are able to force Rivers into some costly turnovers, and potentially wind up in the end zone as well.
There is no denying the talent level of the Chargers defense as well, but they do have some holes in their defense that can be attacked, while the Ravens have more offensive weapons, a better balanced offense, and a more experienced quarterback that is less prone to making mistakes in a game in which mistakes should be magnified. The Chargers are one of the hardest teams to run against, and are especially difficult because of their 3-4 alignment and their athletic linebackers that make it hard to run off tackle, making it troubling for speedier backs to operate against. However, the Ravens use a grind it out running game that isn?t designed to pick up the big yardage, rather utilized to wear down the opposing defense and allow for a balanced offensive attack. Expect them to use Lewis to run straight at the defense, forcing their undersized linebacker to have to make head point tackles. This power running tactic should allow the Ravens to be able to grind out tough yards, and allow McNair to operate in more manageable third down situations. With the inexperience at safety, the inconsistent play of their cornerbacks, and the multiple offensive weapons the Ravens have in their passing game, it will also allow Lewis to be able to run against seven man fronts, where he is much more dangerous. Unlike the Chargers, the Ravens have some compelling match ups in their passing game that they could take advantage of. The Chargers might have to play with two backup safeties that lack experience. This is not something you want against the Ravens passing game and against McNair, as he heavily relies on inner hash passing plays that are highly dependent on the quality of play of the opposition?s safeties. He also has a top three receiving tight end that can certainly take advantage of the inexperience the Chargers have at safety, and provide McNair with a solid outlet option to counter the Chargers top tier pass rush. Mason has really developed chemistry with McNair already. Although he will more than likely have the Chargers best corner, Jammer, on him throughout the game, this is appears to be a good match up for him. Jammer is still a raw cornerback that could have match up problems with the better route runners in the league like Mason. The cornerback depth is lacking on the Chargers as well, which should provide McNair receiving options across the field. McNair is most comfortable with short drop passing schemes that should be able to offset the pass rush of the Chargers. Their pass rush in the first two games helped hide the suspect secondary which the Chargers pose. The majority of the pass rush has been heavily dependent on Marriman, who is one of the biggest defensive forces in football. Although Ogden has lost a step in his game, he is still one of the best tackles in the league, and should help contain Marriman. Expect a better balanced attack from the Ravens offense. It is also an offense that is less prone to making mistakes. They are built for physical games such as this, and just got finished playing a defense that uses a 3-4 alignment, so they should be better prepared to know what to expect from the Chargers.
Home field advantage in this game is also magnified. The Ravens are quickly becoming one of the hardest teams to beat at home, and even in last years down and out season, was a difficult challenge for most teams in their own backyard. The crowd should also be a problem for Rivers.
Cons:
Coming off bye weeks, teams have the hardest time adjusting to the speed of the game. The physicality part of the game is often helped by an extra week of rest. This makes teams like the Falcons and Colts dangerous teams to play coming off bye weeks, and teams like the Ravens and ideal team to play. In a game which should be decided in the trenches and establishing a ground game, the Chargers have a big offensive line and best running back in the league to fall back on. Even if the Ravens are the hardest team in the league to run against, you can never underestimate the potential of Tomlinson. The Ravens have a very complex defense that is designed to confuse quarterbacks. Having two weeks to prepare for this defense is a nice embedded asset for a quarterback. Lewis is a little banged up, and running room should be hard to find for him. Lewis has always had problems running against stacked boxes, as it allowed penetration before hitting a second gear. Although the Chargers are more than likely going to rely on their front seven to stop Lewis, it is a top tier front seven that is built to prevent running backs from getting their running play developed. McNair looked out of sync last week, and his accuracy was a bit off. Heap is banged up, and his effectiveness is a question mark. The Ravens key to success is to pressure Rivers. Suggs is a premier pass rusher who has a big advantage of the rookie left tackle on the Chargers. However, he too is fighting an injury, and might not be able to play in Sunday?s game.
Conclusion:
This game has the makings of a playoff type game. Both teams are as physical as they come and have the makings of a close game. Home field advantage, big plays on defense, and experience at quarterback should prove to big advantages favoring the Chargers. Simply put, wrong team favored. In my opinion, the Ravens should win this game outright.
ffice:smarttags" /><st1:stockticker>MGM</st1:stockticker>, you might be right. I might be underestimating the Bears potential, but have always found teams that win convincingly against bad teams and have soft schedules to be more of a value fade, as they are often overrated. The Bears have yet to convince me they can win against the better teams. I think Sunday Night might change the way I look at this team if they could put forth a solid outing, but I still hold my doubts against them.
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