My Monday blog

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
There are no road games on my October schedule.

I feel at home wherever I go.

From my birthplace of Chicago to my home in Las Vegas to my new happy place in San Jose, Costa Rica, I'm enjoying life as an explorer and free spirit.

Now if only I could gamble and win.

More scar tissue last night after Game 2 of the American League Championship Series.

I had a good chance to win money until Red Sox closer Craig Kimbrel allowed back-to-back doubles to George Springer and Jose Altuve with two outs in the ninth inning of Boston's 7-5 victory over Houston.

I did not get involved before first pitch (total was 8) but instead waited until Houston grabbed a 4-2 lead in the third inning to go UNDER 11.5 runs in live wagering.

The handicap was simple: Boston starter David Price would be pulled in favor of some live arms in Boston's bullpen and Houston starter Gerrit Cole appeared locked in.

I was one out away from a winning play when Houston's little second baseman hammered a double off the Green Monster to score Springer with the back-breaking run.

Under bettors carry a love-hate relationship with MLB closers and while Kimbrel is among the best of his generation, he's not infallible.

Two quick thoughts from the ninth inning of last night's game: Kimbrel's recent form is shaky and the world champion Astros rarely go down without a fight.

LIVE WAGERING...I've adopted one of Alan Denkenson's winning in-game strategies to "buy on bad news."

"Dink" once said, "The best way to grab value with in-game wagering is to bet AGAINST what just happened."

I was surprised to learn professional sports bettor Ron Boyles is not interested in live wagering, especially at William Hill where the house is dealing a 30-cent line (-115 either way).

"What's more," Boyles said, "You're competing against a model with sophisticated algorithms with thousands of critical trials at its disposal. No thanks."

Trusted EOG contributor ComptrBob counters Ron's argument.

"I'm heavily involved with in-game wagering. I monitor the numbers from CRIS and their offerings are vulnerable."

When asked about his attack on the live product, ComptrBob responded with a smile in his voice, "My algorithms are better than their algorithms."

I'll be dining with ComptrBob tonight in Reno.

And I promise to have pen and paper ready.

MONEY TALKS....Las Vegas-based handicapper Bobby Beghtel (aka Bobby the Owl) was chirping last week after he bet Texas Tech (+8) over TCU.

TTU posted a 17-14 victory over TCU in Fort Worth.

The previous week, Bobby liked Texas (+8) over Oklahoma in the annual Red River Showdown and he was rewarded with another three-point win by the underdog when Texas won, 48-45.

Bobby was feeling frisky when he spoke in the third person, "You don't need no points with Bobby the Owl's plays, you just need money."

And money rules in the gambling world.

Here are my three favorite quotes involving United States currency:

3) Money reveals who you really are.

2) Money isn't everything but a lack of it, is.

1) Life is a game or a gamble and money is how we keep score.
 
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railbird

EOG Master
was an over umpire last night, cole and price both got squeezed in 1st inning. game 1 ump had a generous strike zone
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
here is some math - Jesus + nothing = everything


I'll ask ComptrBob if he agrees with this formula.

Something tells me Birdie will be disappointed in Bob's answer.

I'll also ask Bob if he has tracked Birdie's documented selections through the years.
 

railbird

EOG Master
I'll ask ComptrBob if he agrees with this formula.

Something tells me Birdie will be disappointed in Bob's answer.

I'll also ask Bob if he has tracked Birdie's documented selections through the years.

Romans 14:11 says this. For the Scriptures say, "'As surely as I live,' says the LORD, every knee will bend to me, and every tongue will confess and give praise to God.'
 

DotPark

EOG Addicted
Always enjoy reading your Monday blogs.
Was sitting in sect 23 behind the plate last night. Tough to judge balls and strikes while at the game but didn't see any batters bitching last night.
On another note is "Gabe" on the EOG payroll now?
My instinct tells me he is or at the very least he has been encouraged to post frequently to increase forum traffic after the site was reconstructed. Guys insufferable John.
Am I wrong?
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Always enjoy reading your Monday blogs.
Was sitting in sect 23 behind the plate last night. Tough to judge balls and strikes while at the game but didn't see any batters bitching last night.
On another note is "Gabe" on the EOG payroll now?
My instinct tells me he is or at the very least he has been encouraged to post frequently to increase forum traffic after the site was reconstructed. Guys insufferable John.
Am I wrong?
Always enjoy reading your Monday blogs.
Was sitting in sect 23 behind the plate last night. Tough to judge balls and strikes while at the game but didn't see any batters bitching last night.
On another note is "Gabe" on the EOG payroll now?
My instinct tells me he is or at the very least he has been encouraged to post frequently to increase forum traffic after the site was reconstructed. Guys insufferable John.
Am I wrong?


Gabe is not on the payroll.

I enjoy Gabe's contributions because he likes both sports and horses.

Not sure about his agenda.

He disappointed me in the past because of some erratic behavior but I'm giving him a second chance.

I agree with his 90/10 stance but I will ask him to steer clear of personal attacks.

I met Gabe only once on the final day of the 75-year history of Hollywood Park and he seemed like a great guy.

The Internet seems to bring out the worst in people, at times.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Thanks for checking in, EJD.

I'll report to the board my findings after dinner with ComptrBob.

Love that guy.
 

Gabe

Horse racing expert
Travel while you can JK.....experiencing the world around you is priceless.....your Monday blogs are informative and interesting....

Absolutely. Memories are really all we'll have when it's said and done. Also you never know what the future has in store for you so travel while you can.
 

Heim

EOG Master
Frukin Dink.....Everytime I bet a under I can't forget his prophetic words, to wit, unders were created for bad beats.
 

Dutch

EOG Enthusiast
Good stuff as always JK.

A few folks turned me off to this site but this blog is one thing that always brings me back.

"You're competing against a model with sophisticated algorithms with thousands of critical trials at its disposal. No thanks."

With all due respect to Mr. Boyles, this is an ignorant take. Actually, you're competing against an individual trader that quite possibly has limited knowledge of the actual match-up. The algorithm provides a suggestion that puts you in the ballpark... the trader decides on the number. The feared technology isn't there yet... it certainly will be but not yet. My guess is 2 more years for pro sports, 3 for major college, and 5 for 2nd-tier college games. It's a great time to be a punter and a tough time to book imo.

The biggest problem is the difficulty of getting an in-game bet down without being on a device. Currently, books are seeing the punter's advantage and cutting them off quickly. With some books you can buy in-game numbers over the counter (if you're quick) but then you're losing the necessary advantages of being in your office (DB Screen.. live stats, ect)

Just my two cents.

Hope you're well, and badly miss you on air
 

raininthrees

Point Spread Nomad
to dinks theory, in tonight 49ers game after the insane score cluster in the
first quarter. dealing in the second quarter 71 in which I grabbed under.

scoring was fast and furious, and you cannot rely on 2-4 play scoring drives and
inside thirty fumbles to continue thru out game, just doesn’t happen

opportunities in these markets always makes doing the work easier
 

railbird

EOG Master
to dinks theory, in tonight 49ers game after the insane score cluster in the
first quarter. dealing in the second quarter 71 in which I grabbed under.

scoring was fast and furious, and you cannot rely on 2-4 play scoring drives and
inside thirty fumbles to continue thru out game, just doesn’t happen

opportunities in these markets always makes doing the work easier

I see it all the time, low 1st qtrs. and game way over. fresh defense, and offense not warmed up.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Good stuff as always JK.

A few folks turned me off to this site but this blog is one thing that always brings me back.



With all due respect to Mr. Boyles, this is an ignorant take. Actually, you're competing against an individual trader that quite possibly has limited knowledge of the actual match-up. The algorithm provides a suggestion that puts you in the ballpark... the trader decides on the number. The feared technology isn't there yet... it certainly will be but not yet. My guess is 2 more years for pro sports, 3 for major college, and 5 for 2nd-tier college games. It's a great time to be a punter and a tough time to book imo.

The biggest problem is the difficulty of getting an in-game bet down without being on a device. Currently, books are seeing the punter's advantage and cutting them off quickly. With some books you can buy in-game numbers over the counter (if you're quick) but then you're losing the necessary advantages of being in your office (DB Screen.. live stats, ect)

Just my two cents.

Hope you're well, and badly miss you on air

Your two cents is valuable, Dutch.

Thanks for checking in
 

Pickman Jones

EOG Dedicated
good stuff JK.
that live bet on the total was a good one. I have different way of attacking the live betting for different sports. baseball I never bet totals before the start. its always something I look at live betting and always a under like the one you had.

I agree with what the good man Dink says about live betting. its good to go against what just happened. that is a good way to do it.

I use it a lot for getting numbers that you would never got until the situation in the game is right. like tonight in the NBA I like Boston but I made the number Boston -2.0 but the line has been -4.5 or -5 so I will wait and see if I can get them better than -2.0. pk or + points would be good. you have to wait and get what you plan to get. its like they say plan a trade and trade a plan.

I don't fish but its like people who fish waiting for the fish to take the bait. a way of putting more in my style is its like the Armagh sniper team sitting and waiting for a brit patrol to come threw, if they come threw take em out. if not than wait thell will be along sometime.
 

Viejo Dinosaur

EOG Master
I never have made a live in game wager with a Bookmaker.....us oldtimers called them halftimes....hahahaha

Seriously....you really have to pay attention and be quick on the draw...I don’t have the patience....would get pretty annoyed if I put in a wager and got rejected over and over....at least you have 15 minutes to wager halftimes....lol
 

Gabe

Horse racing expert
I had a pal go on a 30k run with live betting baseball and it was all unders in either 6th/7th or 8th inning. He gave a lot of it back but he swears by it and grinds out a profit.

Dink and all are right, bet against what just happened, I learned this the hard way. LIVE BETTING can be so volatile. Sounds like Pickman Jones has the mindset to be successful at it. He has a plan and sticks to it which is a lot more easier said than done.
 

Gabe

Horse racing expert
Not sure if it will work again this season . But I mentioned this the last two seasons.

Autobet Warriors ML when down by more than 11 points. 11 pt deficit to them is nothing .
 

raininthrees

Point Spread Nomad
also love making strategic live wagers early with the ability to free roll by the 6th or 7th inning
or the 3rd/4th quarter in games. it is not for weak stomachs but it can be an art form with
years of experience in the genre, as flexibility can be a powerful weapon...
 

mrbowling300

EOG Dedicated
JK, this weekend, I will be in South Florida. Saturday night is Detroit Red Wings at Florida Panthers, then Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins. Then the rest of the week is hanging out in Hollywood/Ft. Lauderdale/South Beach.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
JK, this weekend, I will be in South Florida. Saturday night is Detroit Red Wings at Florida Panthers, then Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins. Then the rest of the week is hanging out in Hollywood/Ft. Lauderdale/South Beach.

Life is good for MRBOWLING300.

I can match his itinerary but cannot come close to his bowling skills.

He's the author of at least 11 perfect games.

He once gave me 50 pins and still beat me.

Aargh.
 

mrbowling300

EOG Dedicated
JK, if you are in LV week of May 9th, I believe, next year, I'm bowling in the national tournament at South Point, maybe we will have another rematch! Stay well my friend!!!
 
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