EOG's Best Bet thread for Monday, September 23

KevinStott11

EOG Veteran
Monday, September 23, 2019—489 Bears-Redskins Under 42 -117 (Pinnacle)

8:15 pm EDT/5:15 pm PDT (ESPN, WatchESPN)—Summer is officially over and now it is Fall. The Betting Board will get tougher moving forward, with NCAAF Conference play beginning and the NBA, NCAAB and NHL all on the Autumn gambling horizon, and lines and fellow gamblers getting sharper. The NCAAF Week 4 and NFL Week 3 boards looks equally weak, but with Soccer and some old tricks, I am sure we can squeeze 7 Best Bets out of the Don Best rotation and the Computer, and get down on all 7 of them now and avoid the jabberwocky and the Keef Moon keyboard pounding.

Looking at the upcoming betting week on a Sunday night is a good practice to get into, with opening NCAAF and NFL coming out from the line originators and no matter how modern the world gets, I’ll always miss listening to The Stardust Line on Sunday nights. It helped a betting mind framework the coming week, albeit usually with just the fresh-as-donuts NCAAF and NFL lines. Anyway, all sportsbooks Offshore are showing a 41 for this Bears at Redskins game, save for Pinnacle who still has a 42 with now -117 juice on the Under. The 42 looks like the best of it, and 41—the number I have—seems decent with both the Bears and Redskins scared of the Regular Season and both fearing a Loss here in Week 3 on Monday Night Football.

Washington (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS) is 0-7 L7 Mondays according to Marc Lawrence Playbook and the Skins are 7-21 ATS L28 games on Monday, so this ain’t their fun day, their, “I don’t have to run day.” It's just another Manic Monday for HC Jay Gruden (41-42 ATS) and his team. Chicago (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) is 5-1 ATS L6 Mondays. In the series, Washington is a profitable 10-2 SU/ATS the L12 and the Redskins have covered 5 straight vs the Monsters of the Midway. Who knew?

But Khalil Mack and Chicago seem like the better team heading in here at FedEx Field (Grass) in Landover, MD, with Chicago playing in a tougher division with the Lions (2-0-1) suddenly looking good and Green Bay (3-0) and Minnesota (2-1) also off to nice starts. To keep pace with their NFC North brethren, Da Bears need Da Win and Da Defense may have to score with QB Mitch Trubisky looking questionable and 19 Points in the “PF” column.

So? So for Chicago to win, they have to play great Defense, and it seems they know that already. Washington’s first two games were Overs, so which team controls the Pace will likely dictate the Total, and it’s hard to see Chicago getting into, or wanting to get into a score-fest at Washington. The Skins have L8 of 9 SU by an average of over 11 ppg and the Pass Defense has been suspect.

The bottom line is that the Bears have played 7 straight Unders in games with 21, 41, 23, 34, 31, 19 and 30 points scored—none of those higher than 42. So Chicago should control the Pace because of fear of Trubisky, but this is the lowest (Red) level of Picks with a bad start or quarter, a pick-6 or Special Teams TD ruining everything with 41 and 42 still relatively low. The Under is 6-0 the L6 Chicago games on Grass and 6-0 the L6 vs the NFC. The Under is 4-1 the L5 September games for Chicago and 5-1 the L5 Bears Monday games.


Bears 23 Redskins 13

 
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winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
Pinny

263 Pats -7 -104

Bills are 3-0. With a Life-and-death win over NYG and Cincy. I need to see them step up and not get squashed before I can believe in them. We know the Pats will come focused and looking to "send a message" to the Bills. I am doing this now because I am certain this line goes higher and with higher juice. Get the best line NOW
 
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