I am either going to look real good or real stupid with these but Ive had plenty of both sides in the past so here it goes again.
543 - UMBC +6 vs Binghamton (-120)
I was a little bored last night with the small number of lines available and decided to give myself a challenge and test myself with a conference I know little or nothing about. So bear in mind that I am treading on thin ice with this play.
UMBC returns a large portion of the team that went 13-3 and made it to the Tournament last year. They have basically underachieved and struggled to meet thier preseason expectations of this year, but they have have experience, especially successful post season experience as a team, and over the last two upset tournament wins that intangible is bearing fruit. Binghamton is on a great run with a make shift lineup of Jucos and transfers that all probably could have made it with bigger programs but for whatever reasons (grades, disciplinary etc....), they have been assembled by the second year coach in a bit of a quick fix gamble that has paid off big this year.
I look at this as a chance at redemption game for UMBC and they are getting really good guard and all around team play over the first two games of the conference. The 28 assist to 11 to ratio compared to Binghamtons 13 assists to 27 turnovers really stands out in my opinion. Although I make this game Binghamton -4 1/2 if I just take the last two tournament games I make UMBC the four point favorite. Just going by Sagarin ratings to make up the comparison lines in the last two games I have UMBC covering the numbers against better teams by a combined 13 points ATS while Binghamton has failed to cover my numbers by a combined 3 points ATS. These are just Sagarin point spreads and not actual odds so dont get riled if they dont jive with what the books have posted. I sometimes use them for strength of schedule or non board teams for a starting point.
These teams have split the season winning each game on thier home courts with Binghamton recently blowing out UMBC by 20. I think a little revenge might be in order today with a rejuvinated team looking to right thier season with another upset to make it back to the Big Dance.
516 - LSU -3 vs Miss St.
I cant make a great technical or ATS streak argument for this game so I wont even try. Miss St. is certainly on a very nice run and turning some heads lately. I have made the mistake of underestimating this LSU team earlier this year and just have a gut feeling I will do well by reversing my policy on them in the post season. I dont put a huge amount of stock in the fatigue factor but feel it can only work in my favor today. I also think this is a golden opportunity for LSU to secure a big reqruiting advantage and a possible coach of the year prop for Trent Johnson so I see no reason for LSU to hold back at any time the rest of this season.
I am currently 18-9, up 11 units for the week so I am probably due to be a good fade. Looks like the money and Micelli are against me on my first play so depending on your public theories ..... I do know that being on the other side of Micelli is not a very good percentage play right now so take it for what its worth. I am definitly out on a limb with both these games.
Good luck everyone, hopefully I can come in with one or two stronger opinions later on.
543 - UMBC +6 vs Binghamton (-120)
I was a little bored last night with the small number of lines available and decided to give myself a challenge and test myself with a conference I know little or nothing about. So bear in mind that I am treading on thin ice with this play.
UMBC returns a large portion of the team that went 13-3 and made it to the Tournament last year. They have basically underachieved and struggled to meet thier preseason expectations of this year, but they have have experience, especially successful post season experience as a team, and over the last two upset tournament wins that intangible is bearing fruit. Binghamton is on a great run with a make shift lineup of Jucos and transfers that all probably could have made it with bigger programs but for whatever reasons (grades, disciplinary etc....), they have been assembled by the second year coach in a bit of a quick fix gamble that has paid off big this year.
I look at this as a chance at redemption game for UMBC and they are getting really good guard and all around team play over the first two games of the conference. The 28 assist to 11 to ratio compared to Binghamtons 13 assists to 27 turnovers really stands out in my opinion. Although I make this game Binghamton -4 1/2 if I just take the last two tournament games I make UMBC the four point favorite. Just going by Sagarin ratings to make up the comparison lines in the last two games I have UMBC covering the numbers against better teams by a combined 13 points ATS while Binghamton has failed to cover my numbers by a combined 3 points ATS. These are just Sagarin point spreads and not actual odds so dont get riled if they dont jive with what the books have posted. I sometimes use them for strength of schedule or non board teams for a starting point.
These teams have split the season winning each game on thier home courts with Binghamton recently blowing out UMBC by 20. I think a little revenge might be in order today with a rejuvinated team looking to right thier season with another upset to make it back to the Big Dance.
516 - LSU -3 vs Miss St.
I cant make a great technical or ATS streak argument for this game so I wont even try. Miss St. is certainly on a very nice run and turning some heads lately. I have made the mistake of underestimating this LSU team earlier this year and just have a gut feeling I will do well by reversing my policy on them in the post season. I dont put a huge amount of stock in the fatigue factor but feel it can only work in my favor today. I also think this is a golden opportunity for LSU to secure a big reqruiting advantage and a possible coach of the year prop for Trent Johnson so I see no reason for LSU to hold back at any time the rest of this season.
I am currently 18-9, up 11 units for the week so I am probably due to be a good fade. Looks like the money and Micelli are against me on my first play so depending on your public theories ..... I do know that being on the other side of Micelli is not a very good percentage play right now so take it for what its worth. I am definitly out on a limb with both these games.
Good luck everyone, hopefully I can come in with one or two stronger opinions later on.