2020 NFL

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#1
Let's try to get some threads NOT about Covid-19 or politics. There's still a chance we can have an NFL season.

Healthiest teams in 2019 (based on starter games lost)
1. Minnesota
2. Chicago
3. LA Rams
4. Buffalo
5. Pitt- although the Roethlisberger injury made them completely impotent offensively.

Most injured teams in 2019- based on starter games lost
1. Seattle
2- tie- NY Jets and Jacksonville
4. Washington
5- tie- Detroit and Green Bay
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#3
Fifty-seven quarterbacks started games in the 2019 NFL season.

Will Grier started two games for Carolina late last season.

The Panthers lost both games by 32 points.

Luke Falk started two games for the Jets early last season.

He nearly performed as poorly as Grier.

Grier and Falk combined to go 0-4 straight-up and 1-3 against the spread.
 
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Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#5
I thought Linley from Cincinnati was the worst QB since Peterman. He actually started 3 games when Dalton could've started.

Baltimore will still be good but everyone else in that division should be improved this year. Pittsburgh held together pretty good despite horrible QB play and Big Ben should be back. Even if he's only at 75% of his peak, that's still a lot better than Duck and Rudolph. Their defense was very good last year. Cleveland was overhyped last year off numerous acquisitions, but maybe needed a year to get those players to gel. I also think Mayfield was out of shape. And everyone is curious to see how Burrow does in his rookie season. Hard to imagine Cincinnati not being better after they completly gave away 3 games by starting Linley.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#7
Pitt really needs a TE and a RB. Claypool was a great pick for them, was hoping the Bears would take him over Kmet.
TE? They signed Ebron, who had 13 touchdowns last season and made the Pro Bowl. Vance McDonald is a capable backup. I'm sure Conner will be much better when defenses don't put 8 in the box because Roethlisberger is 100x better than the two fools they had last year.

The Bears have something like 9 tight ends on their roster. Why go out and sign Jimmy Graham when you target a TE in the first round? Not that I expect Graham to work out. He wasn't very good last year with a HoF quarterback throwing to him. Before that he had Russell Wilson and Drew Brees. He gets a real reality check with Mitch throwing to him. But that's how the Bears do things. With little rhyme or reason.
 

kane

EOG master
#8
I'm very high on the Steelers, as long as Ben can stay healthy I think they're a dangerous team, I've got them at 27/1 to win it all
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
#10
TE? They signed Ebron, who had 13 touchdowns last season and made the Pro Bowl. Vance McDonald is a capable backup. I'm sure Conner will be much better when defenses don't put 8 in the box because Roethlisberger is 100x better than the two fools they had last year.

The Bears have something like 9 tight ends on their roster. Why go out and sign Jimmy Graham when you target a TE in the first round? Not that I expect Graham to work out. He wasn't very good last year with a HoF quarterback throwing to him. Before that he had Russell Wilson and Drew Brees. He gets a real reality check with Mitch throwing to him. But that's how the Bears do things. With little rhyme or reason.
Enron was a bust last year. He’s been so hot and cold his entire career. Maybe the Steelers can get something out of him.

I like Kmet a lot, I just think the Bears need a legitimate WR to go along with Robinson.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#15
Ed Oliver was a bad actor and great player at the University of Houston.

In football, many of the best players have a rough edge.
 
#16
should throw big ben out of league for getting that haircut. Unless he bought a rechargeable electric razor like I did off of amazon. ;)
 
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Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#18
Here's a topic for discussion: if there's a season and fans are NOT allowed in the stadiums, how much do you feel home field will be worth to the line? Last year, road teams actually won more games straight up than home teams. That clearly was an outlier, but home advantage does seem to be lessening. I'd go with 1 1/2 points for HFA with no crowd.
 
#19
Here's a topic for discussion: if there's a season and fans are NOT allowed in the stadiums, how much do you feel home field will be worth to the line? Last year, road teams actually won more games straight up than home teams. That clearly was an outlier, but home advantage does seem to be lessening. I'd go with 1 1/2 points for HFA with no crowd.
It's hard to say what HFA is worth without fans, it really just comes down to travel and weather. If it's 90 with high humidity in Miami, that doesn't change, whether there are fans in the stadium or not
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#21
It's hard to say what HFA is worth without fans, it really just comes down to travel and weather. If it's 90 with high humidity in Miami, that doesn't change, whether there are fans in the stadium or not
But there's a huge difference between 90 and humid in September, when most other teams are not far removed from high heat/humidity, and December, where it would be a shock to the system for most northern teams.

Having said that, I'd rather go from cold into heat than the other way around. If teams like Miami, Tampa or Arizona have to go into sub freezing weather in December, that's extremely difficult. It took Tampa over 25 years to get a win in sub 32 degree weather. And they had plenty of chances as they used to play in the old NFC Central (now North). It took their Super Bowl winning team to get over that hump.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#22
Here's a topic for discussion: if there's a season and fans are NOT allowed in the stadiums, how much do you feel home field will be worth to the line? Last year, road teams actually won more games straight up than home teams. That clearly was an outlier, but home advantage does seem to be lessening. I'd go with 1 1/2 points for HFA with no crowd.
Just listening to today's GWAE podcast and this very question was brought up (not by me) on their podcast taking listener question. But both admitted they weren't really qualified to answer it.
 
#26
Things can change for sure, but good chance we'll be down to single digit, if that, new daily infections in most states by September. I could see them doing some seat blocking that minimizes the crowd to 50%, but maybe not even that. Some fans would clearly be concerned and stay away, but the stuff we saw over the weekend shows there are plenty of people who are more than willing to go out in a crowd. Probably best for the goodwill of the NFL is to just tell season ticket holders if you want to take the year off, you can pass on your seats but you keep your priority for next year. And then go sell those tickets to fans who otherwise couldn't get access to them in most markets and give some away to first responders/doctors/etc.

I think the data in this is probably the most useful. It tries to estimate how many actual cases, including those not detected by testing, are out there. Even in this higher cases scenario its pretty clear where the path is going thanks to the measures taken to slow the spread.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
 
#27
Things can change for sure, but good chance we'll be down to single digit, if that, new daily infections in most states by September. I could see them doing some seat blocking that minimizes the crowd to 50%, but maybe not even that. Some fans would clearly be concerned and stay away, but the stuff we saw over the weekend shows there are plenty of people who are more than willing to go out in a crowd. Probably best for the goodwill of the NFL is to just tell season ticket holders if you want to take the year off, you can pass on your seats but you keep your priority for next year. And then go sell those tickets to fans who otherwise couldn't get access to them in most markets and give some away to first responders/doctors/etc.

I think the data in this is probably the most useful. It tries to estimate how many actual cases, including those not detected by testing, are out there. Even in this higher cases scenario its pretty clear where the path is going thanks to the measures taken to slow the spread.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
That may be the best model that's out there for Covid19. We are at about 68k new infections a day in the US now, but would fall to 10k a day around July 1, and around 1800 a day by August 1.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
#29
Things can change for sure, but good chance we'll be down to single digit, if that, new daily infections in most states by September. I could see them doing some seat blocking that minimizes the crowd to 50%, but maybe not even that. Some fans would clearly be concerned and stay away, but the stuff we saw over the weekend shows there are plenty of people who are more than willing to go out in a crowd. Probably best for the goodwill of the NFL is to just tell season ticket holders if you want to take the year off, you can pass on your seats but you keep your priority for next year. And then go sell those tickets to fans who otherwise couldn't get access to them in most markets and give some away to first responders/doctors/etc.

I think the data in this is probably the most useful. It tries to estimate how many actual cases, including those not detected by testing, are out there. Even in this higher cases scenario its pretty clear where the path is going thanks to the measures taken to slow the spread.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
How would you like to be a LA seat license owner right now?
 
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