2021 Baseball Picks, Fades, Info, Group Discussion

WildBill

WildBill

2
Baseball already doing it's best to piss me off. Bet Story to get an RBI both games. He goes 4-9 batting third, team scores 14 runs and he somehow gets 0 RBIs.
 
M

MrTop

EOG Master
Most Defensive Runs Saved
By Position (2018-2020)​

Position-Name-Team-DRS

1B-Matt Olson -Athletics + 23

2B-Kolten Wong-Brewers +35

SS-Nick Ahmed-Diamondbacks+48

3B-Matt Chapman-Athletics +53

LF -Adam Duvall-Marlins +20

CF-Lorenzo Cain-Brewers +40

RF-Mookie Betts-Dodgers +47

C-Roberto Pérez-Indians +40

P-Zack Greinke-Astros+14
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
FairWarning said:
Haven’t been the same since 2016.
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They were still good in 2017, getting to the NLCS but downhill from 2018 onward. Bryant has either had injuries, or has just regressed. They need to be able to score without the HR. Bur that pitching staff isn't very good. Curious to see how Arrieta looks; he was dealing with some injuries during his time at Philly. Can he come close to regaining the form of 2014-2017?
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
I'm taking a new approach to player props. While I love to bet unders in games, I had been betting too many overs when I bet player props. No more. I'm focusing much more on who I think will be ineffective. Here's a few today:

Swanson vs Wheeler 1 for 17, 6 Ks 1 walk
McMahon vs Buehler 2 for 20 1 HR, 10 strikeouts 0 walks
Justin Upton vs Lynn 1 for 13 1 HR 7 K 3 walks
Semien vs Kluber 2 for 18 1 HR 5 Ks 0 walks
Segura vs Morton 10 for 46 2 HR 0 walks
 
TobyTyler

TobyTyler

EOG Dedicated
I'm on couple player unders also, Jed Lowrie under 0.5 and Gregory Polanco under 1.5 (though that one was real juicy - 145)
 
FairWarning

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
Valuist said:
They were still good in 2017, getting to the NLCS but downhill from 2018 onward. Bryant has either had injuries, or has just regressed. They need to be able to score without the HR. Bur that pitching staff isn't very good. Curious to see how Arrieta looks; he was dealing with some injuries during his time at Philly. Can he come close to regaining the form of 2014-2017?
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He's pitched well enough today considering the lineup and wind. I don't see many times I can take him this year though, unless its a 5-inning play.
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
White Sox' bullpen was supposed to be a strength, but 3 games in they've already blown leads in 2 of them.
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
The ump behind the plate tonight is awful. Edwin Moscoco? 28 years old. Never heard of him. He’s really squeezing Cease tonight. Granted, Cease doesn’t have good command but when every pitch on the corner is a ball, it’s tough to have a good outing.
 
C

cheapseats

EOG Master
Why are the 1st inning run #'s so different. Dodgers and A's -245 individually yet collectively-127. Don't get the logic.
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
Who is this guy Yermin Mercedes? He's now 12 for 19 in the major leagues. Started the season out 8 for his first 8. 5'11" 245 and looks at least that. Looks like he should be in a beer league, with the strong accent on beer. But he apparently can hit.
 
WildBill

WildBill

2
Relatively cold day with the wind blowing in here in Denver. Might be a little rain too so damp conditions tonight at Coors. Definitely focus on the under.
 
P

pro analyser

EOG Dedicated
WildBill said:
Relatively cold day with the wind blowing in here in Denver. Might be a little rain too so damp conditions tonight at Coors. Definitely focus on the under.
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Im leaning in that direction myself, for totals I usually wait closer to game time for more info. While I agree wind blowing in and cold favor the under, rain favors the over. I had to learn the hard way with more errors commited by a wet ball or infield. Ball dies in the outfield letting runners take a extra base more easily combined wih the grip. Wind will sometimes change direction as well.
 
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WildBill

WildBill

2
pro analyser said:
Im leaning in that direction myself, for totals I usually wait closer to game time for more info. While I agree wind blowing in and cold favor the under, rain favors the over. I had to learn the hard way with more errors commited by a wet ball or infield. Ball dies in the outfield letting runners take a extra base more easily combined wih the grip. Wind will sometimes change direction as well.
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True points, but its usually so dry here I think when there are damp conditions its makes the air and the ball a bit heavier. The cold is probably going to be the biggest challenge, looks like low 40s, damp and a bit windy so wind chills down near freezing. Really bad conditions for baseball.
 
WildBill

WildBill

2
Scherzer -115 first 5 against Smyly. What am I missing here in what appears to be a total pitching mismatch? Weird part is this is MGM's line, other books have Scherzer -135 to -145. Not sure if this is just MGM's algorithm not adjusting for starters or what's going on here.
 
P

pro analyser

EOG Dedicated
WildBill said:
Scherzer -115 first 5 against Smyly. What am I missing here in what appears to be a total pitching mismatch? Weird part is this is MGM's line, other books have Scherzer -135 to -145. Not sure if this is just MGM's algorithm not adjusting for starters or what's going on here.
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have mgm app line 145
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
WildBill said:
Scherzer -115 first 5 against Smyly. What am I missing here in what appears to be a total pitching mismatch? Weird part is this is MGM's line, other books have Scherzer -135 to -145. Not sure if this is just MGM's algorithm not adjusting for starters or what's going on here.
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It seems low but has to be due to Nats' inactivity. They haven't even played an exhibition game in a week. Hitting is about timing. Their hitters won't be sharp.
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
Washington is really short handed. Look at that lineup: Hernan Perez, Stevenson (?) and Lucroy, who was just picked off scrap heap. Look who's out:

Corbin, Lester, catchers Gomes and Avila, Josh Bell, Schwarber, infielders Mercer and Josh Harrison and closer Brad Hand.

Bravos are a live dog, IMO.
 
C

ComptrBob

EOG Master
For all you guys with lots of time on your hands, I've been posting to a thread in the baseball betting subforum about a four game "chase" (Martingale) system for 12 years now.

Drama galore. So it turns out today Atlanta (0-3) needs a win to avoid a "double-up" 14.9 unit loss. Some may find it instructive, pathetic and/or hilarious, but read it at your own risk. Its "THE 80-0 BASEBALL SYSTEM".

Baseball Betting | EOG Forums
 
I

IWishIWasAPro

EOG Master
Probably the game here. Bot 7th 5-4 Atlanta, Bases loaded 2 outs, Nate Jones in for Atlanta. Turner at bat.

Nevermind, its Josh Tomlin for Atlanta.
 
WildBill

WildBill

2
Valuist said:
Washington is really short handed. Look at that lineup: Hernan Perez, Stevenson (?) and Lucroy, who was just picked off scrap heap. Look who's out:

Corbin, Lester, catchers Gomes and Avila, Josh Bell, Schwarber, infielders Mercer and Josh Harrison and closer Brad Hand.

Bravos are a live dog, IMO.
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I'll gladly take the tie on this one after being down 3-0 in the second.
 
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