2021 MLB thread

Are dogs usually profitable in the weeks after the all star break & in April?

On Saturday MLB dogs rolled to a 10-5 SU record for a hugely profitable day. Dogs have been + money in 11 of the last 17 days. Favs have been profitable in only 30 of the last 56 days with action.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
Are dogs usually profitable in the weeks after the all star break & in April?

On Saturday MLB dogs rolled to a 10-5 SU record for a hugely profitable day. Dogs have been + money in 11 of the last 17 days. Favs have been profitable in only 30 of the last 56 days with action.

April tends to be good for dogs, but I've felt dogs are better later in the season than right after AS break. The veteran teams around .500 who are likely to miss playoffs definitely vulnerable to the young, cellar dweller teams still trying hard.

I look at this Cubs roster. This team is beyond horrific. It isn't young prospects; its cast offs. Kyle Hendricks got his 13th win right before the start of August. Will he get to 15? Willson Contreras about the only legit MLB hitter on the roster. I know Wisdom has some power, but way too much swing and miss and he can be Ian Happ 2.0 after Happ started out well in 2017 with good power but way too many K's? The league adjusted to Happ and he hasn't adjusted (yes Mr. Top, you were right about Happ). His agent better be talking to teams in the KBO or Japan. Bote is a nice utility player. He shouldn't be one of the best players on the roster. Heyward just cannot hit. That contract ultimately was the start of undoing the 2016 team. Then I see guys like Romine and Duffy; no power, low average and too many K's for such weak contact. The first baseman is some castoff from Oakland with 35 career ABs. The linemaker already is pricing in their low talent levels in the moneylines and totals. How about betting opposing starters to go over on strikeouts? Any good effort vs the Cubs going forward should be downgraded. Opposing starters figure to pitch deeper into games and are likely to get more K opportunities.
 
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FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
The Giants are really interesting, they keep winning. I don’t think I’ve bet a Giants or Ray’s game this year.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
Funny how I railed on the Cubs offense being mostly cast offs, and a cast off hits 3 home runs.

Here's an oddity: on Saturday the White Sox had an unknown guy hit 3 HRs (first 3 of career) and lost the game. On Sunday, the Cubs got 3 HRs from castoff Ortega, and also lost.

BTW, I mentioned about taking the opposing starter OVER their strikeout prop. Fedde's prop was 4 1/2. By game time, it was juiced up to -140, so apparently a few others are taking the same approach. Feed easily went over the 4 1/2 strikeouts.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
Any value in these:

Rays to win division +125

Giants to win division +225

I'd say no but I don't make divisional bets. Get the better price and take them to win the pennant or the WS, if you like them. It's hard to ever bet against Tampa. They have a great bullpen and defense, great minor league system and I think that organization is in others' heads. As for the Giants, I never saw this coming with them being good. Maybe the Dodgers win the division anyways but with all the injuries, things haven't set up well for them. And Tatis keeps getting hurt for SD, and when Tampa was willing to unload Snell, it only figured he'd regress going elsewhere, and he has. Whoever thought collecting a bunch of Reds pitchers could be the key to success? But if these guys were pitching half their games in HR paradise, they figured to be better in a much better pitcher friendly environment.
 

MrTop

EOG Master
Any value in these:

Rays to win division +125

Giants to win division +225





yes.. tampa.. why ? the redsox are last in defense .. in the last 20 years no team has made the playoffs while last in defense.

i took tampa a few weeks ago

I also took NY yanks at less money. Bosox will fold


giants have quite a few tough playoff teams to play but only 3 against the dodgers.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
yes.. tampa.. why ? the redsox are last in defense .. in the last 20 years no team has made the playoffs while last in defense.

i took tampa a few weeks ago

I also took NY yanks at less money. Bosox will fold


giants have quite a few tough playoff teams to play but only 3 against the dodgers.
The only thing BoSox has to look forward to is Sale returning soon. You called their demise, good job.
 

MrTop

EOG Master
You called their demise

Hasn't Happened Yet.

Only 1 Game Out in A.L./East.



very early like you said. Baseball prospectus and the sports books have tampa as the favorite right now. Boston at least has the worst defense in MLB .. don't look now here come the yankees.
 
Got a flurry of emails today, all these teams telling me about their 2022 schedules. Seriously we have almost two months to go in this season and they want me to set up my calendar for next year? Such a contradiction to the NFL schedule release where they get to do a whole show about it and everyone goes off trying to figure out who won and lost in the scheduling.
 

MrTop

EOG Master

Penn National Acquiring TheScore In A Major North American Betting Move​

Combination of two companies with sportsbooks in U.S. and Canada presents a new force
 

cheapseats

EOG Master
Giants with 4 in the 9th and 1 in the 10th to win. Max is not going to save the Dodgers. Just one of those years for a team.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
White Sox-Cubs rivalry resumes today. This is a series that always mattered more to the Sox I felt. The Sox bats have gone cold after the break though. Today is a very good pitching matchup with Lynn vs Hendricks. This could be the series that gets them focused as the schedule gets much harder for the Sox. For today though, I like the F5 under. Abreu props are something to look at also, he is heating up, and also hit 6 HR’s vs the Cubs last year.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
The bottom half of the Cub lineup was playing in Iowa last month.

Don't want to bet against Kyle Hendricks today and I don't care to back Carlos Rodon on Saturday.

But I look for Dylan Cease to dominate the Cubs and Zach Davies Sunday night in a nationally-televised game on ABC.
 
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Valuist

EOG Master
Giants with 4 in the 9th and 1 in the 10th to win. Max is not going to save the Dodgers. Just one of those years for a team.

It really feels that way regarding the LAD. Things just have not fallen into place for them. Let's hope that continues.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
The bottom half of the Cub lineup was playing in Iowa last month.

Don't want to bet against Kyle Hendricks today and I don't care to back Carlos Rodon on Saturday.

But I look for Dylan Cease to dominate the Cubs and Zach Davies Sunday night in a nationally-televised game on ABC.
This cub lineup is really struggling to score. It won’t be pretty if both ex cub relievers come in and dominate today.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
What does anyone know about Ranger Suarez? I see 43 innings only 21 hits allowed. I know the metrics say some regression likely coming, but I'm curious if this guy pitches with any deception. Many times the deception guys outperform the peripheral metrics.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
Nope. Very little deception from Suarez. I can see where he might give a LH dominant team like SF some issues, but to righties, I don't see any deception in his motion:

 

Valuist

EOG Master
Two weeks ago, when Seattle traded their best reliever Graveman for an unproven quantity in Toro, it looked really questionable, trading Graveman to in division rival Houston, and the day after a huge comeback win vs the Astros. The players hated it....for the first few days. Now, Toro is batting over .400 since he joined Seattle and now the starting 3B. Sometimes there is a method to the madness.
 

MrTop

EOG Master
Two weeks ago, when Seattle traded their best reliever Graveman for an unproven quantity in Toro, it looked really questionable, trading Graveman to in division rival Houston, and the day after a huge comeback win vs the Astros. The players hated it....for the first few days. Now, Toro is batting over .400 since he joined Seattle and now the starting 3B. Sometimes there is a method to the madness.



yes i agree. Seattle is deep in relief so it was a good move in getting an everyday player that can hit. Seattle offense needed an upgrade & moving more to a balanced attack.
 

MrTop

EOG Master
red sox last in defense are folding , yanks and toronto in the race. Yanks still missing a lot of players.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
Going to play around with the Plesac strikeout prop of over 4 1/2. It's not really about him. I looked up Detroit's lineup for today and in the last week, they have 160 plate appearances and 49 strikeouts; that's about 30% of all plate appearances ending in a strikeout. I know his last start was poor, but don't give up a big hit to Schoop and could be ok. Cleveland's lineup also looks weak. It's basically Ramirez and Reyes and a weak supporting cast. I was able to get under 9 1/2 at Heritage. I suspect the total will have to come down.
 
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