Giga Chikadze -215 (74" Reach) vs Calvin Kattar (72" reach)
Current line: Chikadze -240
Bet against Kattar in this very same opening January card a year ago vs Holloway. Hoping for a similar result. Calvin Kattar is far from a jack of all trades but his strengths are very very good. Boxing, power, durability, cardio, takedown defense. Takedown defense isn't much to consider in this strikers battle, Kattar will be the only one to shoot. Kattars wrestling is better than most think but hard to imagine him trying to utilize a grappling heavy approach after not shooting for a takedown since his first fight in the UFC fight (5 years and 7 fights ago). In my writeup with Max, I highlighted his inability to defend strikes. Prior to the Holloway fight he absorbed 5.66 vs landing 5.01 (-.65). Those stats have ballooned to 8.16 v 5.07 (-3.09) after taking the ass kicking of a lifetime. Kattar's beating was literally unprecedented as Holloway landed nearly 200 more strikes than anyone in UFC history. Kattar was out on his feet 3x and it amazes me to this day that he 1) didnt fall, 2) corner didn't throw the towel, 3) Herb Dean didn't end the fight. One has to question if his granite chin is still there after a fight like that. In regards to defense his biggest area of concern is a total inability to defend calf kicks and have a hard time believing that will have changed. His leg was ravaged vs Moicano in 2018 causing him to lose the fight and every fighter since has taken aim at it with high success. Not to mention when Kattar is not ready to counter he typically shells high leaving the body exposed. I expect the body and calf to be readily available the best kicker he has ever faced in his career (Chikadze).
In his UFC career, Kattar has loss to Moicano, Zabit, and Holloway. All being the only fighters with diverse array of distance strikes and good distance management. The difference in this fight is Giga has serious fight ending ability while the others do not (6 KD's in last 5 fights). While his explosivity does wane a little as the fight progresses, the power stays. 3/6 KD's occurred in the 3rd round.
I think the power is a wash in this bout. However, Giga by far the more decorated striker and should have a heavy advantage in regards to distance striking, distance control, and striking defense. Kattar's biggest advantage is cardio in this fight. We know Kattar will still be attacking with bad intentions for all 25 minutes. Conversely, we have seen Giga gas before vs Emmers in early 2020. The caveat is he took the fight on 7 days notice. In all other decisions since then his cardio has looked fine. Many make the point that he was slowing vs Barboza in the 2nd before getting the finish in the 3rd. I shared this notion until I rewatched the fight. It's clear Giga actually got caught with a solid right hook to the body @ 2:26 and was just hurt. Hell of a poker face because he had me fooled in real time. You'll continue to see him wince when touched there and overly protect the body for the remainder of the round. Between rounds he doesn't sit on the stool, does not breathe heavy, and finishes the 3rd in a very long fight ending sequence. Is his cardio as good as Kattars? Most likely not but I think it's much better than people give him credit for and good enough to get well out in front if not finish the fight through 3 (we have not seen Giga in rounds 4 or 5 yet). So what happens if it gets to rounds 4 and 5. One would have to think if it gets that deep Kattar should be in the drivers seat. But I really question how effective Kattar will be if Giga dismantles his leg/body like I expect. Max could have but decided to batter his brain for 5 rounds en route to to landing 274 sig head strikes. All the while landing 117 to the body and 54 to the leg to boot. I think the safest play is fight does not go to decision and will be wagering that once odds become available. Wish I had mixed in KO/ITD props rather than laying 3u at -215. Kattar has the power to catch and finish Giga with potential for finish in championship rounds if Giga does gas late. Also covers the off chance Kattar has unbelievable grappling he has just never used before. But the most likely scenario to me is Kattar succumbing to strikes sometime in the 2nd round. Giga will sap his movement and power via leg kicks from distance and open up power shots to the liver and head. With his body giving up on him if his brain does not want to turn off like last time (also question his elite durability after the Holloway fight). Giga via 2nd round TKO.
