Few prospects I am higher on than Caio. But this price seems wide vs Muradov and the market agreed dropping the early price of +230 down to +170ish. Caio's grappling seems very very high level and generally speaking he can outathlete most of his opponents even without his technical ability on the mat. This matchup is not one where I think he has the athletic upside and I feel definitely not the advantage on the feet. Muradov is a hellacious striker, uber athletic, good takedown defense and generally keeps his strikes very tight. He has shown to have some cardio issues so banking rounds 1 and 2 are critical. But as long as his cardio holds up, I expect his takedown defense to hold as well. Caio is a karate style fighter and I think dancing with his hands down on the perimeter is going to give Muradov some opportunities to go home early. Deeper the fight goes, the more it favors Caio. Need Muradov to have success early.