2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs

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Patrick McIrish

OCCams raZOR
kane said:
IMO there are only two things that can prevent them from going back to the finals a fourth straight time.

First, age might catch up to Bob, he'll be 38 at the start of next season, as we all know father time is undefeated and at some point Bob will eventually slow down. That said, the guy keeps himself in great shape, and according to his teammates he's the hardest worker on the team. They just won the Cup without having home ice in any series, so the team knows the regular season isn't as important to them as it is to other teams, I'm sure the coaching staff will give Bob plenty of rest during the season getting ready for the postseason grind.

Second, the wear and tear of going to three straight finals might catch up to them physically and mentally. In reaching three straight finals they've basically played four seasons worth of games in just three years, that's a lot of hockey, and there's a chance they just hit a collective wall at some point in the playoffs. I remember when the Heat went to their fourth straight finals, LeBron made a comment that during the series against the Spurs, the team just hit a wall, playing so many games during that four year span they had nothing left physically and mentally, and the Spurs beat them rather easily. The Bills went to four straight SB's, and I remember an interview with Bills receiver Don Beebe, he said at halftime of their fourth SB against Dallas, he recalled looking at his teammates in the locker room, and he could tell by their body language they had nothing left in their tank, he said the emotional, physical, and mental toll hit them at halftime, they got blown out in the second half. I've always remembered the comments made by LeBron and Beebe about what a toll going to that many finals in a row takes on an athlete. So there's a chance that playing four seasons of games in three years catches up to them.

I'm not saying this because I'm a fan, but I truly think this Panthers team is special, they're as talented as any team in the league, deeper than most, extremely well coached, they have no weakness. In the last few days I've heard analysts debate whether this team is the best team they've seen in the past 20-30 years, they're that good. We'll see what happens in the offseason, but until someone beats them four times, to me they're still the team to beat
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As always good points but spoken like a true Panthers fan. Analysts always see dynasties, that's what fans want to hear about.

Analysts are now saying this young OKC team is one of the greatest ever, expect them to win several more.....

I'd guess a 4 or 5 seed is closer than a repeat champion.

Yes I agree with the 2 scenarios you listed above as potential problems but there are so many more reasons than that for a team not to 3-peat.

It's more about things needing to fall perfectly rather than a rare potential issue here or there leading to a downfall.

Bob is 38, March is about that old, Tkachuk and several others were pretty much barely hanging on injury wise.

And you got a lot of great athletes and smart minds with a lot of time and tape on how to beat you in the future.

BTW change a few names around and that is pretty much what us Tampa fans were saying a few years back when we won 2 in a row.

It's not only physical from playing all that extra ice time, it's also mental. Even regular season you are going to get everyone's best efforts.

Come playoffs it's even more magnified. Who is more motivated in your opinion, a team looking to bust through or a 2-time defending champ?

I say the former and I don't think it's even controllable........

I don't think an athlete can MAKE himself as hungry and desperate going for 3 in a row as a team looking to break through in the post-season.

Very very tough to go 3 times in a row, had this same conversation with RedTide about the Chiefs.

Anyway drop me a line if you want a gentleman's wager, give you 2 to 1 they don't win it all next year if you are interested.

We move on.
 
kane

kane

EOG master
Patrick McIrish said:
Analysts are now saying this young OKC team is one of the greatest ever, expect them to win several more.....
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Big difference between the Panthers and Thunder, the Thunder just won their first Chip, it's the first time they've been to the finals. The Panthers have reached the finals three straight years winning twice. And sure, when you have a team as young and as talented as OKC is it's only natural the analysts will say they expect them to win more, they also have a ton of picks and arguably the best GM in the league, of course nothing is guaranteed, but it's understandable why they think this isn't a one and done team.

Patrick McIrish said:
Bob is 38, March is about that old, Tkachuk and several others were pretty much barely hanging on injury wise.
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I mentioned Bob's age and father time could catch him, that's one of the reasons why I said they potentially wouldn't reach the finals again. And think about this, during the playoffs Tkachuk played with an adductor muscle that was torn off the bone, and they still won. Injuries are always a factor in the playoffs, but the best team fights through it.

Patrick McIrish said:
And you got a lot of great athletes and smart minds with a lot of time and tape on how to beat you in the future.
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Teams have had a lot of time and tape on how to beat them for the last three years, it hasn't happened yet.

Patrick McIrish said:
It's not only physical from playing all that extra ice time, it's also mental. Even regular season you are going to get everyone's best efforts.
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That's exactly what I said. The Panthers biggest challenge will be the mental/physical aspect of going to a fourth straight finals. They've played 4 seasons worth of games in the last 3 years, at some point that could take it's toll. I gave two examples of teams that hit a wall playing in their 4th consecutive finals, LeBron's Heat and Beebe's Bills, both players said how going through the grind of reaching four straight finals took it's toll and those teams were burnt out mentally and physically. As far as getting everyone's best efforts, of course other teams will get up to play the back to back champs, but the regular season isn't as important to them like it is to other teams, it doesn't matter to them if they're the one seed or the four seed, they just won the Cup without having home ice advantage in any series, let teams like Toronto, Carolina, and Tampa fight it out for the highest seeds, it's not as meaningful to the Panthers.

Patrick McIrish said:
Who is more motivated in your opinion, a team looking to bust through or a 2-time defending champ?
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I think once the playoffs start every team is extremely motivated, I don't think that will be a factor. If anything the case could be made Edmonton should have been more motivated than the Panthers, the Oliers were looking to win their first Cup, and out for revenge against a Panthers team that had already won it last year, and trying to win it not only for themselves, but for the entire nation of Canada who hasn't won a Cup in over 30 years.

Patrick McIrish said:
Very very tough to go 3 times in a row,
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Yes it is, and I'm not saying the Panthers will have an easy time getting back to the finals. The NHL playoffs is a grind, and the Cup is the hardest trophy in all of sports to win IMO, but if they're fully focused and can stay motivated, they can do it, when next year's odds come out I have to assume the Panthers will be right at or near the top of teams to win it all.

Patrick McIrish said:
Anyway drop me a line if you want a gentleman's wager, give you 2 to 1 they don't win it all next year if you are interested.
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I don't know what the odds on them to win the Cup will be, but I can assure you I can get much better than 2/1, if I had to take a guess I'll say they'll be +700, so I'll respectfully decline your offer.
 
kane

kane

EOG master
Let's take a look at the early 2026 Stanley Cup champion odds at DraftKings Sportsbook as of June 18.

2025-26 Stanley Cup winner

Florida Panthers: +600 (bet $10 to win $70 total)
Edmonton Oilers: +700 (bet $10 to win $80 total)
Carolina Hurricanes: +900 (bet $10 to win $100 total)
Dallas Stars: +950 (bet $10 to win $105 total)
Colorado Avalanche: +950 (bet $10 to win $105 total)
Vegas Golden Knights: +1200 (bet $10 to win $130 total)
Tampa Bay Lightning: +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total)
Toronto Maple Leafs: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
New Jersey Devils: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
Los Angeles Kings: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
 
kane

kane

EOG master
Let's see, I can bet the Panthers to win the Cup +600 with a book, or get them +200 with McIrish. Hmm, tough call, I'll have to do some hard thinking on it
 
kane

kane

EOG master
TBH, right now at the current odds I think the team I would take a shot with is Colorado +950 in the West, and in the East I kinda like Toronto at +2000, but need to see what moves they make this offseason. Looking back, they gave the Panthers the toughest series out of anyone, and if Marchand doesn't win game three in OT, decent chance the Leafs might have won the Cup
 
kane

kane

EOG master
BTW, I wouldn't take the +600 with Florida right now and I'll explain why. Two years ago they won the Cup, and this past season they coasted through portions of the season, they were less worried about seeding than they were about being rested and healthy, and they finished 5th in the East. Now after another Cup run, I assume their attitude towards the regular season will be the same, I don't think they go balls out during the season to get as high a seed as possible. I think they'll be more concerned with being rested and healthy heading into the playoffs and not worry about what seeding they get. What I might do is wait until the first couple months of the season have been played, if they're sitting in the 4th or 5th spot their odds might be +1000, that's when I would look to play a future on them. If I end up making a future on them I would try to buy low and get them at a much better price than what's currently being offered
 
C

ComptrBob

EOG Master
kane said:
BTW, I wouldn't take the +600 with Florida right now and I'll explain why. Two years ago they won the Cup, and this past season they coasted through portions of the season, they were less worried about seeding than they were about being rested and healthy, and they finished 5th in the East. Now after another Cup run, I assume their attitude towards the regular season will be the same, I don't think they go balls out during the season to get as high a seed as possible. I think they'll be more concerned with being rested and healthy heading into the playoffs and not worry about what seeding they get. What I might do is wait until the first couple months of the season have been played, if they're sitting in the 4th or 5th spot their odds might be +1000, that's when I would look to play a future on them. If I end up making a future on them I would try to buy low and get them at a much better price than what's currently being offered
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Just for another example, Circa (probably a more competitive book) has:

2026 Stanley Cup Panthers @ +750 and the Hurricanes, Avalanche, Oilers & Golden Knights all at +800 with Stars @ +1200, Lightning @ +1400, and Kings @ +1500.

Offering the Panthers at +200 is just plain insulting, +800 would be competitive.
 
P

Patrick McIrish

OCCams raZOR
Here's a hypothetical Kane - you're in a bar with a 2-headed coin.

One guy says I will give you 10-1 your next flip is tails! (Think his name was Winky or something)

Two other guys say I'll give you 8-1 it's tails!

And some fat Irish guy says I'll give you 2-1 the next flip is tails!

Which of those wagers do you accept?
 
P

Patrick McIrish

OCCams raZOR
I don't want to answer for anyone but I deduce CB punches me in the face and walks out the bar.......

Yes I presented him a juicy wager rich in +EV but it wasn't as good as the other offers.

Not being wise, I'm genuinely curious Kane which if any do you accept.
 
WVU

WVU

EOG Master
The Panther staff broke up the ice and put it in buckets and melted it and that’s what they were filling water blasters up with and shooting it at the crowd. It doesn’t get any cooler than that. They showed unbelievable appreciation to the crowd.
 
kane

kane

EOG master
choslamshe said:
I don't know the rules enough to understand how players on LTIR exactly allow the cap to open up and allow these players (often rental) to get added. I do think Mark Stone was another case in Vegas' recent cup but again don't know if his absence on IR allowed them to bring in anyone for their run.
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This is something I came across, apparently the new rules won't allow teams to find loopholes with the salary cap, you were right about Vegas doing it with Stone


Playoff cap

Currently, teams with players on long-term injured reserve can exceed the salary cap by roughly the amount of the players’ salaries until the playoffs begin.

Several times over the past decade, Stanley Cup contenders have used LTIR to activate players at the start of or early in the playoffs after they missed some or all of the regular season.

Florida did so with Matthew Tkachuk before winning the second of back-to-back titles, Vegas has done it with Mark Stone on multiple occasions, Tampa Bay with Nikita Kucherov and Chicago with Patrick Kane.

The rule has been criticized as an unfair loophole, a way to stockpile talent and then add even more for the postseason. After he and Carolina were eliminated by the Lightning in 2021, Dougie Hamilton quipped that the Hurricanes “lost to a team that’s $18 million over the cap.” Tampa Bay went back to back, and players wore T-shirts with that saying on it during their Cup celebration.

That will no longer be possible, though it's not exactly clear how it will work.
 
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