Re: 30 Horses in 30 days
Hey 2W2P2S,
I appreciate the comments as you are one of the sharpest posters imo. Bet structure is everything. I've seen great cappers constantly lose and I've seen guys who don't understand the game win due to great bets and money management. The first bet I made is to Win. I preach 8-1 but in reality its 12-1 or above for me. I keyed the 2 back n forth with 3,4,6 in ex for 6 bets.
And I bet a 2-6 EBX a bit more. Just not following as the 8 won and had no 8's and my guy finished 3rd...?
You're capping led you to the opinion:
1) I have a longshot horse that is going to out run his odds #2
2) I have a solid favorite that's going to hit the board #6
A full key of:
2,6 w/ 2,6 w/ all
2,6 w/ all w/ 2,6
all w/ 2,6 w/ 2,6
Cost $42 for every $1 in that race- returned $136
Now, if any shot hits in the all space, the ticket is going to blow up, to me that's worth covering the 3,5,8 who were between 4/1-5/1 fighting for 2nd favortism. So now you also have:
2,6 w/ 2,6 w/ 3,5,8
2,6 w/ 3,5,8 w/ 2,6
3,5,8 w/ 2,6 w/ 2,6
That cost $18 for every $1 and it returned another $136.......if any other horse but those 3 come in those legs with your 2,6 key, great chance it's going to pay more than the $200 and some quite a bit more so I'll use them unless I really have a dislike for one of those horses.
Now in any situation, if the #2 finishes ahead of the #6, you're going to get paid great, especially cause you have WP. So just to inexpensively cover a bit more, I'll have my keys with a single 6 over the single 2. Ex. 6 w/ 2 w/ all, 6 w/ all w/ 2, all w/ 6 w/ 2
That's the way I look to wager in a situation like you handicapped. A tough favorite with a live longshot. Again, it's making money when you're right. If you're perfect, well then obviously you cash big with 2,6 exa's and 2 WP bets along with everything else.
One more thing, someone bet $15 WPS on the #2 based on your capping, and others talked about how to play what with the #6 also.
$15 WPS ($45) on the #2 returns @ $48
Much better with what you capped:
$15 WP #2
$1 tri 6 w/ all w/ 2
$1 tri All w/ 6 w/ 2
Using the #2 in the show spot here and investing $1 less ($44) returns $136.
Just some stuff to think about.
