You're right JK.......it is a different question.
I am interested for purposes of "live" in-game betting in baseball. One or two lead changes in a game means "plus" money on both sides, and that's a sports bettor's dream.
It seems that teams that are down by one run in the middle innings are given a ridiculously high plus number by most outlets.
Why is that in an era where weak bullpens and one swing of the bat change scores and results very quickly?
That's a different question than "What percentage of games does the team that scores first win?"