Alonso vs. Vettel 2012 championship

LCD

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Re: Alonso vs. Vettel 2012 championship

He and Button both seemed to get a pretty good handle on the track early yesterday. After that I think both McLarens ran with higher fuel loads in P2 so their times got a lot worse. At +300 he's got a pretty good price but that said Vettel looked really good. The other complication is qualifying second is probably going to be better than winning pole (see above).

Safety cars odds have dropped slightly which seems bizarre watching all the slipping and sliding yesterday and the fact that many of the track workers will have never worked a Formula One race before and will be completely unused to these cars at these speeds and clearing shit up while a race is still under green. Still think it's a good bet that something will happen at the first corner at the beginning of the race or any place else on a track that is like "glass".

Now just need R, R and S to have a shitty qualifying session so their odds for fastest lap skyrocket. One time.
 
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Re: Alonso vs. Vettel 2012 championship

I backed Webber to win at +1800 on betfair and put up an offer to sell the otehr side at +600. Hoping he will come in that far if he qualifies front row. But I'll sell it at anything under +1800 after quali.

Also took Maldonado to quali top 3 @ +900 for small.
 
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Re: Alonso vs. Vettel 2012 championship

LCD said:
The other complication is qualifying second is probably going to be better than winning pole (see above).
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Button might have been having a lend of us?

Red Bull reckon the even numbered starting spots are going to be so slick they would expect to lose 2 positions from that side at the start.
 
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Re: Alonso vs. Vettel 2012 championship

Thought he was going to do it wtahcing the live timing. Lewis was ahead going into the last sector and Vettels 3rd sector had been 2/10ths off his best on the pole lap.
 
LCD

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Re: Alonso vs. Vettel 2012 championship

I don't think Button was talking out of his ass because it's Button. Alonso yes! Being on the inside of the first blind uphill corner of a slippery track does not strike me as a terrible thing. I like that it goes Hamilton, Kimi and then Alonso on the inside. Fuck Red Bull.
 
LCD

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Re: Alonso vs. Vettel 2012 championship

I like Hamilton at +350. Vettel is going to be pressured to not take chances. If Hamilton can somehow manage to get ahead of him at the first corner McLaren has the pace. I also like Alonso at +1600. He's the best driver in the world in a car that is particularly bad in qualifying (as we talked about above). He needs to win. He starts well and it's a weird first corner. Think that's a great price.
 
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Re: Alonso vs. Vettel 2012 championship

Yeah agree with what you say about Vettel not taking too many risks. And that Hamilton will be tough to beat if he does win corner 1.

But it almost totally relies upon Vettel losing the lead at the first corner. As it sounds like there isn't going to be much passing or a multiple pitstops to strategize around.

Vettel -200 v Ham +410 on betfair. German is too short for me anyway. Not having much luck selling my +1800 Webber bet as yet.
 
allin1

allin1

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Re: Alonso vs. Vettel 2012 championship

red bull not a loved team it seems. I never liked them either. such a shame to see them win again everything. alonso can win the championship only if something goes wrong for vettel (car failure, mistakes, crashes)
 
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Re: Alonso vs. Vettel 2012 championship

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There will probably only be passing if there are mistakes or on that long straight.

Like MW at that number. Thoughts on fastest lap before I light my money on fire.
 
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Re: Alonso vs. Vettel 2012 championship

LCD said:
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There will probably only be passing if there are mistakes or on that long straight.

Like MW at that number. Thoughts on fastest lap before I light my money on fire.
Click to expand...

Hard to go against the top 3 with a 1 stop strategy expected across the field I guess?

None of them seem to be wearing tires fast enough to make anything but outright speed the factor to me.

Wish I had something more useful to say.
 
LCD

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Re: Alonso vs. Vettel 2012 championship

It's a short pit straight so who knows. I also think that Vettel with probably the fastest car is going to be forced to manage his tires to win the WC. I couldn't even make a bet on the safety car.

So I bet 1.25 units (ty GSP) cause I'm an idiot:

.25 KR +1200
.25 NR +2500
.25 SP +2500
.25 BS +3000
.25 NH +4000

I decided to not bet on the race results because the WC can fuck everything up though I like LH.
 
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Re: Alonso vs. Vettel 2012 championship

I don't know what to do honestly.

Have more tied up in Webber than I want, although fairly confident if he gets a good start I can get rid of some of it.

And I don't have a good feel for anything. I 'think' it will finish with a Vettel/Webber/Hamilton podium if they make it through the first corner.

I like Hulkenburg for a top 6 at +300, but he starts from the slippery side and had Grosjean and Maldonado right behind him.

Maybe I should just hang onto the Webber bet and hope.


How about Ferrari rigging the grid order for Alonso? Shameless. :p
 
LCD

LCD

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Re: Alonso vs. Vettel 2012 championship

And your MW bet is great. Imagine Vettel has to finish to win the WC and then Red Bull will be generous to MW to help him win it. With the crazy first corner who knows what's going to happen.
 
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Re: Alonso vs. Vettel 2012 championship

You think I should keep it really?

I've got an offer up on betfair to get rid of most of it at +900... hoping it will spike down near there fast if he is 2nd on first lap.

Would leave me with 2u if Webber wins, 5u if Alonso wins and 1u if anyone else wins.

Or hold onto Webber and go for near 30u...

Am leaning the safer way, but I can change my mind.

I need to lock in a lay offer before the start as Australians are not allowed to bet live-in-play online. Have to phone it in so may not be able to catch the spike down if it comes first lap that way.
 
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Re: Alonso vs. Vettel 2012 championship

LCD said:
Oh shit, that's different. I don't know.
Click to expand...

Yeah think I had better take the safe option I was trying to setup from the start if I can.

If he doesn't start well for a change it will be moot anyway. Then just hope for another Vettel mechanical issue :)

Good luck all
 
LCD

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2
Re: Alonso vs. Vettel 2012 championship

What a crazy good start by SV. Alonso in 4th but the race might be over.
 
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Re: Alonso vs. Vettel 2012 championship

He only spiked down to +1300... not quite enough for me

so go go Mark and Fred now :)
 
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Re: Alonso vs. Vettel 2012 championship

Lots of first lap passing all around the track!

Hope thats what we see more of!
 
LCD

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Re: Alonso vs. Vettel 2012 championship

The passing is crazy. These are the best first two laps I can remember.

Hulk looking good.
 
LCD

LCD

2
Re: Alonso vs. Vettel 2012 championship

Holy shit. The wide runoffs and slippery track are making them maniacs.
 
LCD

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Re: Alonso vs. Vettel 2012 championship

SV not getting away.

LH more than 1/2 sec faster in every sector.
 
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Re: Alonso vs. Vettel 2012 championship

Quite a race so far. Ferrrari and McLaren better race pace than Red Bull!

Hulk starting to look shakey to hold 6th with Massa on appraoch :\
 
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Re: Alonso vs. Vettel 2012 championship

Webber out.

Oh well, at least that gives my Hulk top 6 a much better chance to cash now.
 
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Re: Alonso vs. Vettel 2012 championship

I think Button is going to get fastest lap going onto the option tires late.
 
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Re: Alonso vs. Vettel 2012 championship

LCD said:
But you sold Webber right.
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Nope. he only went low enough to buy out briefly, and not low enough for my pre-race guess. by time I tried to call in a new bet it was back up near +1800

Hulk bet will save me if Grosjean will nick off and stop going so fast.
 
LCD

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Re: Alonso vs. Vettel 2012 championship

Button was on options at the start. Alonso is now freaking out because of Button's pace when he switched to hards right?
 
LCD

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Re: Alonso vs. Vettel 2012 championship

He was on the hards and now is switching to the mediums.

So people switching to the hards are going to be faster?
 
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