American Idol 2009- Season 8 Thread and Discussion

Re: American Idol 2009- Season 8 Thread and Discussion

FK,
Not exactly sure what you mean by "missed votes". I may have written that somewhere in that lengthy post but I'm sure not going to read it. I give you credit if you did. If you can clarify this, maybe I can better respond.

As to your point of it being fixed. I can only say I have been betting the show for 6 years and have never seen any evidence of it being fixed. There is that outcry all the time, especially when there is a "shocking elimination, but if you study the statistical data usually you can see it coming and oftentimes well beforehand. Fixed is highly unlikely unless myself and sites that track this more closer are simply lucky every single week for years running. Now as to whether the show is manipulated or steered to influence voting, that is another matter. Of course you could say the same for elections as well. Hell, I manipulated the voting in my junior class so I could win class president over the hot cheerleading captain/homecoming queen. If I can do it, then certainly a production team can do it on a larger scale. Certainly the American people aren't the brightest when it comes to decision-making and if you tell them what to do a certain percentage of them will do it.
 

Flamingo kid

Everybody's hands go UP!
Re: American Idol 2009- Season 8 Thread and Discussion

FK,
Not exactly sure what you mean by "missed votes". I may have written that somewhere in that lengthy post but I'm sure not going to read it. I give you credit if you did. If you can clarify this, maybe I can better respond.

As to your point of it being fixed. I can only say I have been betting the show for 6 years and have never seen any evidence of it being fixed. There is that outcry all the time, especially when there is a "shocking elimination, but if you study the statistical data usually you can see it coming and oftentimes well beforehand. Fixed is highly unlikely unless myself and sites that track this more closer are simply lucky every single week for years running. Now as to whether the show is manipulated or steered to influence voting, that is another matter. Of course you could say the same for elections as well. Hell, I manipulated the voting in my junior class so I could win class president over the hot cheerleading captain/homecoming queen. If I can do it, then certainly a production team can do it on a larger scale. Certainly the American people aren't the brightest when it comes to decision-making and if you tell them what to do a certain percentage of them will do it.
It was bad word usage by me, when i said missed votes, i just meant the votes that are going to go to other people that would have went to eliminated contestants.

I get what you are saying, i do think they ought to show exactly how many votes each person got, makes it more legit. Why that info is 'hidden' is something i don't get.
 
Re: American Idol 2009- Season 8 Thread and Discussion

To continue FK,
as for the vote-splitting and importance of demographics I often compare it to a political primary. Essentially when their candidate withdraws, they will by and large move to another candidate.

Without getting into any political argument, let's break it down like this.

White female candidate A: 38%
Black male candidate B: 32%
Black male candidate C: 25%
White female candidate D: 5%

Now right now we have candidate A as the top choice at the moment but not the favorite to win. A could only be the favorite if it has over 50% of the vote. They are the "favorite betting choice" but not "favored to win".

Now candidate D drops out and let's assume that 80% of her supporters will switch allegiances to A and 20% to B. (Not a large stretch of the imagination. So of that 5% overall, 4% go to A and 1% go to B.

Now we have:

Candidate A 42%
Candidate B 33%
Candidate C 25%

A is still the favorite, but still not favored to win.

Now it's further along and candidate C drops out. We'll say 80% of his voters go with B and 20% go to A.

Notice what happens:

Candidate B 53%
Candidate A 47%.

B is now your winner even though it never led until all the candidates were eliminated. If you use your imagination you can draw this out to a timeline on American Idol and even though the votes go to other candidates they do tend to stick to similar styles. The key is figuring out who the votes are going to go to.

Hope that helped.:thumbsup
 
Re: American Idol 2009- Season 8 Thread and Discussion

I can only assume they keep it hidden so that the public does not know the disparity between contestants and will vote regardless. You do see the phenomenon of top contestants dropping down in vote percentages when their fans or voters feel they are safe and do not vote as religiously.

Given various statistical data we can pretty much interpolate the exact vote counts with a margin of error anyway. They usually say how many votes were cast and in last years final told the margin of votes as well.

I'm sure they have their reasons, but judging by the other decisions they make regarding the production of this show it is probably ill-conceived as well.
 
Re: American Idol 2009- Season 8 Thread and Discussion

The obvious head to head face off is Matt and Scott. Both are primarily piano crooners with many similarities. As Matt gains popularity and the novelty of a blind contestant wears off, Scott is doomed. First time the judges want to bury him and send him home they will. Likely his loss will be Matt's voting gain.


Scott has a lock on the blind vote as long as no one hides thier frikken cell phones!

:pop:
 
Re: American Idol 2009- Season 8 Thread and Discussion

Kady-Hater makes some good points.

I think a lot of people when the one they like gets eliminated, just stop voting though.
 
Re: American Idol 2009- Season 8 Thread and Discussion

Adam is not transforming into a star. He is a polished performer in theater. Thus, he is better on stage than these amateurs right now. When these amateurs start feeling more comfortable and perform better on stage, voters will notice. The judges will give them kudos. So far Adam has shown one style, a flaming gay performer. He better change it up or he will start to fade.
 
Re: American Idol 2009- Season 8 Thread and Discussion

hines - big difference between the voting public on gay marriage versus voting for a superb singer/entertainer who happens to be gay. as someone mentioned, homosexuality is accepted in the entertainment world. Only if the person is out of control flaming will their homosexuality hurt them.
 
Re: American Idol 2009- Season 8 Thread and Discussion

hines - big difference between the voting public on gay marriage versus voting for a superb singer/entertainer who happens to be gay. as someone mentioned, homosexuality is accepted in the entertainment world. Only if the person is out of control flaming will their homosexuality hurt them.
ID, how much of the southern and midwestern vote will openly homosexual contestants on this show get? Not much. Alienating yourself from 40% of the voting bloc is massive.
 
Re: American Idol 2009- Season 8 Thread and Discussion

homosexuality is accepted within the entertainment industry. It is not accepted among the voting public. This is not a tricky concept, lets move forward. :+waving-5
 
Re: American Idol 2009- Season 8 Thread and Discussion

As GD mentioned earlier, one of the keys to winning is picking up voters from the contestants that had been eliminated....like with STV voting. Now, I would think that Lambert's voters are pretty much set and that he will pick up very few votes each week as other contestants are eliminated. As more people get eliminated, I imagine Lambert's vote will shrink and shrink and that he won't even end making the final two.

If this was a plurality contest, Lambert might win with his bloc. But seeing as how it's a majority contest that ultimately comes down to just two people, and how I don't think Lambert is going to pick up voters from eliminated contests, his bloc is pretty much stagnant.
 
Re: American Idol 2009- Season 8 Thread and Discussion

um, start?

did you see what he did last week?
I believe it was the country music crowd that tuned in and voted in large numbers that put Adam toward the bottom in votes. Adam should bounce back this week. If not, then he really is finished.
 
Re: American Idol 2009- Season 8 Thread and Discussion

Several good points by some of the more intelligent posters here. Not that hard a concept to grasp and examples given in the prior page.

The voting totals actually increase as the contest goes on. They will open up multiple lines for individual contestants thereby decreasing the number of votes not counted, i.e. busy signals.

Whether the number of voters increases or decreases is irrelevant as it is the number of VOTES not VOTERS that count here. Those supporting individual contestants will vote more fervently as the contest gets closer to the final.
 
Re: American Idol 2009- Season 8 Thread and Discussion

Hines makes a great point about the difference between a plurality contest and a one on one majority contest which this ultimately concludes as. Pretty sure those familiar with that concept will be able to grasp the difference.

A classic example of deteriorating voting percentages as the number of contestants decreases would be last year with David Archuleta. He could have had 40% or more of the vote in the early stages but never gained traction with the supporters of eliminated contestants. Those with a modicum of statistical knowledge could see clearly the intersection of his curve and that of Cook's by simply interpolating data from busy signals.
 
Re: American Idol 2009- Season 8 Thread and Discussion

Excellent post HinesWard86 about Adam Lambert having a hard time picking up votes from eliminated contestants.
 
Re: American Idol 2009- Season 8 Thread and Discussion

I think if you look at Timberfake wannabees performance from last week where they were comparing him to Michael Buble and dickhead chalk dead-wife guy's performance which was horrible smug amateur hour crap, the difference is night and day.

If they figure out they can pimp someone else as a star, do not be surprised if the rug gets ripped out from under dead wife guy and they start being very honest about his singing "ability".
 
Re: American Idol 2009- Season 8 Thread and Discussion




yes, you talentless dead-wife pimping jerk, if I see you soon I will be happy to wipe that smug piece of crap smile off your useless face.

No I guess I am not betting on this person. :+peeing-2
 
Re: American Idol 2009- Season 8 Thread and Discussion

I just tried to get thru his Jesus take the wheel Carrie Underwood song again, its much worse than I said before and I had nothing but scorn.

I could not get halfway through without shutting it off. Now it comes down to whether the judgetards get honest on this prick, or not
 
Re: American Idol 2009- Season 8 Thread and Discussion

Here is my latest update of odds. Please note that these are my personal odds and will differ in some cases significantly from the books:

Danny Gokey +200
Adam Lambert +250
Lil Rounds +600
Matt Giraud +650
Kris Allen +1000
Allison Iraheta +1200
Anoop Desai +1500
Megan Joy Corkrey +1500
Micahel Sarver +7500
Scott McIntyre +7500
 
Re: American Idol 2009- Season 8 Thread and Discussion

Guys Simon and the guys were on Leno last night and when Leno asked them who they thought would win Simon said, "Its for sure gonna be a guy, either Danny or Adam, and Lil representing the last female"

Take that for what its worth, but if there are still lines on male/female pound it.

Also from that i get that they would only use a save on Danny/Adam/Lil and maybe Matt, no one else they deem worthy enough to actually win
 
Re: American Idol 2009- Season 8 Thread and Discussion

I have played Corkrey to win 40-1
Timberfake to win 9-1
Corkrey top chick 20-1
Kris Allen to win 35-1

Anoop-Dawg vs Kinda Blind Guy -135

I am hoping Lil Rounds bombs this week. How that could happen, we have a hard time seeing. But if it does, it will nearly kill her chances. Like a wise man once said in the movie "The Departed", people are always rising and falling in America. Go get em Idol dogs.
 
Re: American Idol 2009- Season 8 Thread and Discussion

it is sad Doberman cannot leave David Cook alone.

*David Cook is upset with his ?Stalker Fans? and he wants them all to know to stop harassing him. He wants them stop calling his hotel rooms, attaching garb on his bus ext.
 
Re: American Idol 2009- Season 8 Thread and Discussion

Sounds like my horse is charging hard from the outside. :+whipping heh heh heh



*A source told us that Matt Giraud sang for Smokey Robinson in Detroit last week. Smokey was so impressed that he told Matt, "Don't change a thing, there's nothing I can tell you, you?ve already made it your own." The source also told us to look for Matt to hit a grand slam tomorrow night!
 

themadman

EOG Senior Member
Re: American Idol 2009- Season 8 Thread and Discussion

any see any value in Scott(+120) to last longer than Anoop?
i think thats a bet...i should make
no pun intended!
 
Re: American Idol 2009- Season 8 Thread and Discussion

Here's what I was referring to earlier.

Every year the voting and subsequent eliminations produce a few surprises as the competition narrows. By and large this is the product of a glut in certain voting demographics. With the elimination of Alexis, we are now left with an even more lopsided demographic in the competition.

Let's look first at the ones who are NOT included in this discussion:

Anoop- obviously he has the Indian, possibly even Asian and other minority male votes locked up. He has some strange appeal to other groups as well despite being pretty average at everything. If he can perform reasonably well, he should last a while.

Allison- one would think she has locked up the Hispanic demographic. Problem is Hispanics have never historically done well on the show and may in fact be a very weak voting bloc. She's pseudo-rocker, pseudo-teen, and won't get many male admirers as long as Megan is left. She has yet to pick up significant voting traction and may see trouble down the road.

Lil- obviously she should have the African-American demographic locked up. Were she a little more attractive could be significantly dangerous voting wise. Doesn't appeal much to the younger segment nor any other serious bloc of voters. She should be able to get enough votes to land in the top five but will have problems afterwards.

Megan- lone good-looking girl left, that gives her points. Appeals to "worster" crowd as well. Quirkiness and different vocal style appeal to those sick of the mainstream. Has yet to have a defining performance and could be dangerous if she does. If she doesn't she will go the way of Carly.

Now to the demographic that is more cluttered than Clay Aiken's inbox at a Gay Pride text message rally, the white male. While they do have differences and there are some sub-genres within this demographic, essentially some sects of teen girls and older women will vote furiously for a white male. Usually one they deem attainable and cute a la Cook/Archuleta/Blake Lews. We still have 6 white males left with 10 people in the competition. Obviously that number will have to be pared sooner rather than later.

You have Michael, the sorta country singer, neighborly big dude that basically has no shot. He will be gone within the next three weeks, if not this week. Then there is Kris, who sets the teenyboppers hearts aflutter, but has yet to really stand out nor is getting the attention of others in this demographics. He needs the field to be pared and then score a knockout while others fall to the wayside.

The obvious head to head face off is Matt and Scott. Both are primarily piano crooners with many similarities. As Matt gains popularity and the novelty of a blind contestant wears off, Scott is doomed. First time the judges want to bury him and send him home they will. Likely his loss will be Matt's voting gain.

Then you have Danny and Adam. So far they have been the attainable contestants the female voters swoon over. Unfortunately for both, they also have serious baggage. Danny has been able to reign in his smugness and attitude so far to hold on to his voting bloc, but a snap of Simon's fingers and a smug comment could send him crashing. Adam is bursting at the seams with gayness week by week and even though he is the most polished contestant, he will have to overcome some serious history to fend off the inevitable influx of negativity.

In summary, the key to this year's contest is which singer will pick up the votes of eliminated others as they leave the competition. This is always the case, but with so many contenders sharing the same demographic we will see a glaring shift in voting patterns as the competition continues. Some contestants may have already peaked in popularity while others are just beginning to gain steam. It is up to you as a gambler to figure out which trends will ultimately lead to the payout window.
Been away from this thread (busy week) but outstanding commentary GD.

The analogy I draw here is like the presidential campaign where there are >2 candidates and when one drops out, another can take that bloc of voters (or most of it) and build a lead that way.
 
Re: American Idol 2009- Season 8 Thread and Discussion

*David Cook is upset with his “Stalker Fans” and he wants them all to know to stop harassing him. He wants them stop calling his hotel rooms, attaching garb on his bus ext.[/quote]

Doberman is probably not around tonight because he is writing letters to David Cook again that he will Fed-Ex out in the morning.

Its not a good situation. I have tried to tell Doberman that obviously David Cook is not interested, but Doberman won't let it go.

Doberman keeps saying things like "I think I've found my soul mate and I can't give up on my dream of us together"

And " I just want to move to Hawaii with David Cook and be happy".

I just hope this ends well somehow. :med3d-tahiti:
 
Re: American Idol 2009- Season 8 Thread and Discussion

I have played Corkrey to win 40-1
Timberfake to win 9-1
Corkrey top chick 20-1
Kris Allen to win 35-1

Anoop-Dawg vs Kinda Blind Guy -135

I am hoping Lil Rounds bombs this week. How that could happen, we have a hard time seeing. But if it does, it will nearly kill her chances. Like a wise man once said in the movie "The Departed", people are always rising and falling in America. Go get em Idol dogs.
I like Matt to rise in this competition. Good luck
 
Re: American Idol 2009- Season 8 Thread and Discussion

Couple of things for tonight:

- This could be a breakout week we see a new contender emerge. Sort of like Jason Castro around this time last year.

- Rumors continue to swirl about an Adam Lambert gay porn tape. This would be the ultimate death knell if true.

- Sarver had flu all week.

- Some interesting backgrounds to say the least about the producer and casting director of show. I'll try and find a few articles.

- The media continues to harp on the cruelty of the "judge's save" yet pretends that the drama and decision making is actually real and not predetermined. Watching the judges "huddle" during the penultimate performance is the worst acting this side of the San Fernando Valley.
 
Re: American Idol 2009- Season 8 Thread and Discussion

So the judges can only use the "save" one time all season??


If that is the case, then you HAVE TO KNOW that they are saving it for Danny or Adam. What I hated last night was when SIMON lied and said that they plan on using it on someone possibly. THEY WERE NEVER GOING TO USE THE SAVE!

Fireworks could have come out of Alexis's ass and they still would not have saved her.



Who else thought that Simon was just trying to create drama?
 
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