Answers to JK's questions on baseball handicapping

[FairWarning]

Coors has pretty normal dimensions in foul ground for a modern stadium. Pretty much fan desires to be close to the action drives that, why it made no sense to have bullpens down the line like they used to.

No one has them anymore, the Cubs were the last.

 

[ejd_5277]

The KC OVER wind tunnel angle is in play today. Not 100% ideal on the wind direction, (would like to see it about 5-10 degrees to the right on the compass to be optimal) but still a very strong play.

 

[John Kelly]

The Rangers-Royals game starts in approximately 45 minutes.

Good luck, EJD.

 

[WildBill]

The KC OVER wind tunnel angle is in play today. Not 100% ideal on the wind direction, (would like to see it about 5-10 degrees to the right on the compass to be optimal) but still a very strong play.

Took awhile for KC to wake up but got a winner. Thanks for that, I really had no strong leans today but thought I'd bet on science.

 

[FairWarning]

Took awhile for KC to wake up but got a winner. Thanks for that, I really had no strong leans today but thought I'd bet on science.

I forgot to play it, played it over 11.5 about 20 min ago and it hits. The wind tunnel angle may be the best total angle now.

 

[ejd_5277]

I’m not watching the game, so I have no idea how many wind-aided fly balls there were, if any. I know a Texas outfielder lost a ball in the sun resulting in a gift triiple

regardless, nice to have a rocking chair winner for a change.

 

[John Kelly]

Final score: Royals 11 Rangers 4.

KC with a 7-spot in the sixth inning.

EJD off the schneid.

 

[John Kelly]

I will watch the pitchers. Are guys struggling to find the plate? Are they nibbling? Every now and then you find an instance where a pitcher is giving up crazy hard contact but getting really lucky. Maybe a ball is hit 430 feet but was foul by a couple feet. Screaming line drives caught. Is the ump squeezing them? This isn't an every day occurrence but anytime form is dressed up, it sets up a future opportunity.

I like to watch a hitter's reaction to a pitcher's stuff.

You can tell a lot about a hitter, and therefore a pitcher, by the way he takes a pitch.

 

[Heim]

According to the baseball sharps on VSIN, pro bettors never lay anything over -150.

Wanna bet?

 

[John Kelly]

According to the baseball sharps on VSIN, pro bettors never lay anything over -150.

Wanna bet?

Sounds like WINKY.

 

[WildBill]

According to the baseball sharps on VSIN, pro bettors never lay anything over -150.

Wanna bet?

Yeah hogwash indeed. When -300 bets get a ton of action do they really think that's square money. I'm sure squares love to run to the window and bet 100 to get 33 back.

 

[ComptrBob]

Sounds like WINKY.

I won 6 "Winky" contests ( a total of 180 selections) without playing a single + number (not baseball, of course).

 

[FairWarning]

According to the baseball sharps on VSIN, pro bettors never lay anything over -150.

Wanna bet?

They will lay -400 if they think it should be -425

 

[MrTop]

Yeah hogwash indeed. When -300 bets get a ton of action do they really think that's square money. I'm sure squares love to run to the window and bet 100 to get 33 back.

if you wrote tix... you would see there would be quite a bit of recreational players on the favorite game in and game out.. you cannot keep a rec player off a side or total that easy..

 

[John Kelly]

And the recreational parlays love to parlay ML favorites.

It's the most common wager at Westgate.

The wagers look like a winner until the games start.

 

[WildBill]

And the recreational parlays love to parlay ML favorites.

It's the most common wager at Westgate.

The wagers look like a winner until the games start.

I know they do, just like your comment about all teasers feel like winners until the game starts. Still my point was about money line dollars wagered usually still showing a hefty edge to the big favorites. I don't think they get that way $100 at a time. Imagine your a rank amateur betting on sports, how much you sweating betting a dime on a team when you could just instead bet $50 dog parlays instead? I'd guess most squares dabble in big ML favorites at some point but after the first game they lose or face a real squeeze like if they had bet Zags on ML tonight they won't go near those bets again. Pros look at it as a risk adjusted investment, nothing more. If one loses today at -300 they just need to fire at a few more and their money will return.

 

[John Kelly]

I know they do, just like your comment about all teasers feel like winners until the game starts. Still my point was about money line dollars wagered usually still showing a hefty edge to the big favorites. I don't think they get that way $100 at a time. Imagine your a rank amateur betting on sports, how much you sweating betting a dime on a team when you could just instead bet $50 dog parlays instead? I'd guess most squares dabble in big ML favorites at some point but after the first game they lose or face a real squeeze like if they had bet Zags on ML tonight they won't go near those bets again. Pros look at it as a risk adjusted investment, nothing more. If one loses today at -300 they just need to fire at a few more and their money will return.

Got it.

Understood.