Baseball bettors..please explain the Phillies/Nats line??

TomBrady#1

EOG Dedicated
#1
I am missing something so please help me.


Wash has a better record by a handful.
Wash away record is better than Philies home record
Phillies have lost 4 in a row and Wash has won 3 in a row.
The starting pitchers are comparable today. IF you want to give a little edge to Hamels then fine. But it is close for the year and last few.

Phil is favored by better than 150? You guys agree? I do not see it??

Thanks you.
 
#2
Re: Baseball bettors..please explain the Phillies/Nats line??

Wash better team right now but not sure how you can say Hamels/Edwin are comparable?

Edwin is probably the Nats' worst starter, Hamels is one of the five best in baseball right now.


Line seems right to me. If it were Gio on the mound for Wash you'd have an argument on the pitchers being close, but don't see Edwin/Hamels close at all. Probably two or three tiers of pitchers between them.
 

TomBrady#1

EOG Dedicated
#3
Re: Baseball bettors..please explain the Phillies/Nats line??

Your not looking at the numbers. Did you give any support to you saying they are comparable? Baseball is about numbers. Any supprt from smart baseball people is about NUMBERS. W/L is not close but the numbers are. Plus you say Wash is better which accounts for a lot yet Phili is that much favored?You call him Edwin? His numbers are rock solid are you kidding me?

ERA's and Whip are close. [TABLE]
<tbody>

0.97
1.03

3.31
2.48


</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
#4
Re: Baseball bettors..please explain the Phillies/Nats line??

Harper's steal of home last time around was the single most exciting play I've seen this season. Hamels won't be plunking the rookie tonight. Phillies with total of just three runs first two games of series. I agree with you, TomBrady#1, Nats a live dog.
 

TomBrady#1

EOG Dedicated
#5
Re: Baseball bettors..please explain the Phillies/Nats line??

Harper's steal of home last time around was the single most exciting play I've seen this season. Hamels won't be plunking the rookie tonight. Phillies with total of just three runs first two games of series. I agree with you, TomBrady#1, Nats a live dog.
Thanks Jack. I find it interesting and would love to hear from some baseball people today on this line. Any retaliation Jack late in this one?
 
#6
Re: Baseball bettors..please explain the Phillies/Nats line??

Hamels will prolly shit on my nats tonight . He did it to us in DC this year also :shoot:
 

TomBrady#1

EOG Dedicated
#7
Re: Baseball bettors..please explain the Phillies/Nats line??

Hamels will prolly shit on my nats tonight . He did it to us in DC this year also :shoot:
Yeah well he just beat my Red Sox last start so we will be together if that happens. LOL.
 
#8
Re: Baseball bettors..please explain the Phillies/Nats line??

Thanks Jack. I find it interesting and would love to hear from some baseball people today on this line. Any retaliation Jack late in this one?
None. If revenge is a dish best served cold then you can be sure the rook had ice water in his veins when he crossed home plate ahead of the first baseman's throw. TAKE THAT COLE HAMELS! But it's over and done with now. Still, I'd love to see Harper get a few hits off Hamels tonight!

:pop:
 
#9
Re: Baseball bettors..please explain the Phillies/Nats line??

You could also look at OPS in BvP (even with a small sample size). And if you compare their FRA there is obviously a gap. Hamels is a better pitcher. Whether the line should be what it is is another matter. Nationals are getting bet down. I wouldn't touch the Phillies, Lee still hasn't won a game with an ERA of 2.66 and a WHIP of 0.86.
 
J

joeybagadonuts

Guest
#10
Re: Baseball bettors..please explain the Phillies/Nats line??

Agree this line seems a little odd.

No way should Philly be favored this big again today. I thought there was more value fading Halladay yesterday, but Washington is absolutely a live dog playing the way they are right now.

Oh, and Hamels is a MUCH better pitcher than edwin, fwiw.
 
#12
Re: Baseball bettors..please explain the Phillies/Nats line??

yeah he's sick. It's tough to sweep in bases too. So another thing the phils have on their side.
If the Phils do win it'll probably be a 3-2 or 2-1 final. I can see Nats +1.5 runs as a solid hedge on Nats outright.
 
#13
Re: Baseball bettors..please explain the Phillies/Nats line??

Hamels being top 5 in baseball is a funny statement from a funny man. So Jake Peavy is number 2 or 3:LMAO

Hamels is top 15 or so by end of year like every year.


Think it should be somewhere near -115,-120 so Wash would be the play here.

Only thing to worry about is if Zimmerman cant suit up a ton of lefty bats in Washingtons lineup and they are near the bottom vs lefties
 
#14
Re: Baseball bettors..please explain the Phillies/Nats line??

The line is already adjusted, if it was opening day the Phils would be atleast -175, that would be the cheapest... Washington might win 3-1 but it has nothing to do with the line being too high...
 
#15
Re: Baseball bettors..please explain the Phillies/Nats line??

The line is already adjusted, if it was opening day the Phils would be atleast -175, that would be the cheapest... Washington might win 3-1 but it has nothing to do with the line being too high...
Yeah because Phili had the best record in basesball last year. Not close this year (different team) that is the point. I understand that long term Phili shoudl be much better but this line is too high and needs a little more of an adjustement based on the numbers. In my view anyway. Thanks for the response and feedback.
 
#16
Re: Baseball bettors..please explain the Phillies/Nats line??

While the Phillies were certainly overvalued in season wins and earlier in the season, and still possibly to some extent now, Washington is certainly not a .605 caliber team. Morse and Werth are probably their 2nd and 3rd best hitters and both are on the DL, plus there's a pretty sizable gap between Jackson and Hamels.

Looking at a few preseason projections: ZIPS, Hamels 3.30, Jackson 3.79. Marcel, Hamels 3.26, Jackson 3.95. Bill James, Hamels 3.22, Jackson 4.41. PECOTA, Hamels 2.96, Jackson 4.11. I have a set of non-public projections that have the gap around 1.1 run, so roughly similar to PECOTA. And nothing's really happened this year to change that, as most of the advanced metrics still have Hamels significantly better this year.
 
#19
Re: Baseball bettors..please explain the Phillies/Nats line??

You do realize that these baseball games are played everyday.

There is no absolute genius to accurately predict what is going to happen THIS day.

But I'll have a couple of 20 scars picks tomorrow.
 
#20
Re: Baseball bettors..please explain the Phillies/Nats line??

You do realize that these baseball games are played everyday.

There is no absolute genius to accurately predict what is going to happen THIS day.

But I'll have a couple of 20 scars picks tomorrow.
You would be SURPRISED how many that do is CONSISTENLY... PS: I'm not talking about predicting the exact score...LOL...
 
#21
Re: Baseball bettors..please explain the Phillies/Nats line??

Make up your mind Jack...
This is a baseball stategy I like in the National League when good pitching is expected. Splitting the wager up between dog ML and dog RL makes it a break even scenario if the dog loses by one run. Not surprised that suggesting a baseball strategy to minimize losses is treated with derision. You knuckleheads would probably be critical of girl scouts offering free cookie samples!

:lock:
 
#22
Re: Baseball bettors..please explain the Phillies/Nats line??

Hamels throwing a NO NO thru 5. Maybe the linemaker knew this. LOL. 2-0 Phillies.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#23
Re: Baseball bettors..please explain the Phillies/Nats line??

Phils won, 4-1.

Hamels moved to 7-1 on the season with an ERA of 1.89 since April 15.

Harper went 1-for-3 with a walk.
 

royalfan

EOG Dedicated
#25
Re: Baseball bettors..please explain the Phillies/Nats line??

Hamels a good deal better than Jackson is the simple explanation for the line. Looking at results with a small sample size a losing proposition over time. Need to predict what is likely to happen going forward and use the past to create value. No way you should ever think Edwin is as good as Cole. He isn't and not close. That being said, line was about right imo.
 
#27
Re: Baseball bettors..please explain the Phillies/Nats line??

Hamels a good deal better than Jackson is the simple explanation for the line. Looking at results with a small sample size a losing proposition over time. Need to predict what is likely to happen going forward and use the past to create value. No way you should ever think Edwin is as good as Cole. He isn't and not close. That being said, line was about right imo.
Phili has cost a lot of people money this year. Pitching is one part of the equation but they have not been that good to say the least with that record. The record does not lie. That small sample size is the entire season thus far, LOL. And they lost 4 straight coming into tonight. I think the reasons that I gave above are pretty compelling even if you don't. I was looking forward to hearing from some baseball people Like and I thank them those that provide baseball info. Thanks for the feedback.
 

royalfan

EOG Dedicated
#28
Re: Baseball bettors..please explain the Phillies/Nats line??

Put me in the camp of not thinking the Wasgington offense is vey good. Neither is Philly offense vut tough to envision many scenarios of Washington scoring much in my view. They seem like they match up with righties better to me. I wouldn't have played Philly either as they struggle to score but they will typically win the ballgame withg that large pitching edge.
 
#29
Re: Baseball bettors..please explain the Phillies/Nats line??

Hamels W/L record of 7-1 now is very good obviously and that was a factor for sure even if the numbers did not appear to be significantly better. THe Phillies win when he pitches. Interesting stuff to me. Thanks.
 

royalfan

EOG Dedicated
#30
Re: Baseball bettors..please explain the Phillies/Nats line??

That is a good point. He has got a lot of run support. His record may have inflated line by penny or two. Washington just doesn't match up well. Got dominated by him last time as well. Your play was not a horrible one. Just trying to help answer your question in the OP. Would have before the game if around, and would be same answer. Not like I was on Philly.
 
#31
Re: Baseball bettors..please explain the Phillies/Nats line??

think my thought process was right on with u royal.

they just suck vs lefties so cant go either way on that one. good sharing baseball thoughts
 
#32
Re: Baseball bettors..please explain the Phillies/Nats line??

This is a baseball stategy I like in the National League when good pitching is expected. Splitting the wager up between dog ML and dog RL makes it a break even scenario if the dog loses by one run. Not surprised that suggesting a baseball strategy to minimize losses is treated with derision. You knuckleheads would probably be critical of girl scouts offering free cookie samples!

:lock:
Jack...I will let you play that with me everyday and twice on Sunday....

I would enjoy the peppermint cookies given by the girl scouts...quite delicious:cheers
 
#34
Re: Baseball bettors..please explain the Phillies/Nats line??

Why I bet Philly:

1) Hamels

2) Wash #3 & 4 spot hitters out

3) Home faves in my odds range were trending (and indeed did win 6 games to 1).
 

royalfan

EOG Dedicated
#35
Re: Baseball bettors..please explain the Phillies/Nats line??

not correct. zimmerman a cornerstone in the middle of the order. He played.
 
#37
Re: Baseball bettors..please explain the Phillies/Nats line??

as much as Tom and i usually but heads on this one no point to try and rip the guy fellas

he didnt come in here like winkyclown and say it was a great play with all caps and bold letters and say even though Washington is a dog they should be a favorite:shoot:


Tom wanted some discussion and he got it.
 
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