Breeders' Cup 2019

John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Bigrunner

Bigrunner

EOG Master
Question for Chitown Joe or anyone. Is there any bias on SA 5f turf course? Closers or speed? Inside post or outside.
 
trytrytry

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
Bigrunner said:
Question for Chitown Joe or anyone. Is there any bias on SA 5f turf course? Closers or speed? Inside post or outside.
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not sure on Turf but main track the rail 1 hole has NOT been good. horses like COVFEFE and PARADISE WOODS on Saturday are two top super horses that got bad draws imo for Dirt.

short turf sprints BC races are almost never won by 12-14 posts I think its something like 2 in 60 or something.
 
BenoitPaire2

BenoitPaire2

EOG Veteran
Friday’s card is just so brutal. I really struggle with 2yo stakes races. Have to watch a ton of replays.

I thought Kumari would be an easy winner... but how do we know how good the ny horse is? And Cambria seems like the best value.

Thinking about singling Maxfield. But we’ll see
 
BenoitPaire2

BenoitPaire2

EOG Veteran
trytrytry said:
not sure on Turf but main track the rail 1 hole has NOT been good. horses like COVFEFE and PARADISE WOODS on Saturday are two top super horses that got bad draws imo for Dirt.

short turf sprints BC races are almost never won by 12-14 posts I think its something like 2 in 60 or something.
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Covfefe got the worst possible post position. Not only the rail, but two fast horses on her outside? I know she’s had some amazing performances so far, but she’s gonna have to go wayyy too fast early to clear the field, or will have to shuffle back and come form behind, which is out of her element. If she wins, she’s a super horse, but I like Dawn the Destroyse and Spiced Perfection. Come Dancing will likely also have to come from fatether back than she ever has... not sure what to do with her either.
 
trytrytry

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
railbird said:
Id like to bet 1 of the days gets canceled by bad air quality from fire at +1200
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fun fact. no horse Fri or Saztruday has Smoke in name

only one has" Smoke" in the breeding pedigree

Race 1 on Friday the Marathon (which used to be a Breeders cup race but now just a nice race on the card). so bet that one Railbird might get about 12-1 actually

ZESTFUL (L)
Ch.g.4 Ghostzapper-Sweet Relish
Ch.g.4 Ghostzapper-by Smoke Glacken

but your big play Race 8 Satruday in the Sprint
FIRENZE FIRE (L) 12-1 Morning line also
 
blueline

blueline

EOG Master
SA 5F firm Turf Nov 02 2018 - Oct 27 2019 Non-Maidens Only
31% wire to wire
69% sitting top 3 at first call
58% the 2 inside post positions
15% the 2 most outside post positions
 
S

sunnyisle

EOG Dedicated
BenoitPaire2 said:
Friday’s card is just so brutal. I really struggle with 2yo stakes races. Have to watch a ton of replays.

I thought Kumari would be an easy winner... but how do we know how good the ny horse is? And Cambria seems like the best value.

Thinking about singling Maxfield. But we’ll see
Click to expand...

i heard that the 2 yo bc races friday have a phenomenal win rate for local horses........
 
trytrytry

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
BenoitPaire2 said:
Friday’s card is just so brutal. I really struggle with 2yo stakes races. Have to watch a ton of replays.

I thought Kumari would be an easy winner... but how do we know how good the ny horse is? And Cambria seems like the best value.

Thinking about singling Maxfield. But we’ll see
Click to expand...

dont do that you will not have much action!
 
trytrytry

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
blueline said:
SA 5F firm Turf Nov 02 2018 - Oct 27 2019 Non-Maidens Only
31% wire to wire
69% sitting top 3 at first call
58% the 2 inside post positions
15% the 2 most outside post positions
Click to expand...

58% post 1 and 2? is that possible??? or is that post 1-4??
 
blueline

blueline

EOG Master
The small database I have with me has SA 5 F turf non-maiden
1-4for 15
2- 6 for 15

What i posted earlier is from a larger set of data
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
BenoitPaire2 said:
Friday’s card is just so brutal. I really struggle with 2yo stakes races. Have to watch a ton of replays.

I thought Kumari would be an easy winner... but how do we know how good the ny horse is? And Cambria seems like the best value.

Thinking about singling Maxfield. But we’ll see
Click to expand...

Two-year-olds are always tricky.

I sometimes get fooled by hype surrounding the next super horse.

Runaway victories look good on paper but I've learned young horses benefit from the education of a stretch duel.
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
blueline said:
Apparently SA is researching and considering going back to an artificial surface
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The PETA people will be out in force this weekend in Arcadia.

One carries a sign that reads, "HORSE RACING IS A DYING BUSINESS."

Clever but not nice.
 
BenoitPaire2

BenoitPaire2

EOG Veteran
Well, Santa Anita and the whole industry better hope that there are no breakdowns this weekend. It would be a disaster.
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
BenoitPaire2 said:
Well, Santa Anita and the whole industry better hope that there are no breakdowns this weekend. It would be a disaster.
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No doubt, BP2.

The industry dodged a bullet at the Kentucky Derby when Maximum Security and jock Luis Saez played bumper cars at the head of the stretch.
 
blueline

blueline

EOG Master
Chris Fallica " the bear" if allowed to only bet one sport the rest of his life would choose racing...who knew
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
I have a feeling John Sadler is going to have a big weekend. He's not as high profile as a Baffert or Brown or O'Neil but he is very good at SA and Dmr.
 
blueline

blueline

EOG Master
IWhat I referenced was the tail-end of his VSiN interview...didnt expect it.I will check out the podcast
 
trytrytry

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
blueline said:
here are the BX and BO on friday

Friday Nov 01 2019

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Post TRK Pn Horse MLO
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
13:20 SA-02 #11 Tiger S 8/1
13:55 SA-03 #10 Warm Su 15/1
14:32 SA-04 #6 Totally 20/1
14:32 SA-04 #8 Great U 8/1
14:32 SA-04 #10 Rookie 12/1
15:12 SA-05 #6 Alligat 12/1
15:52 SA-06 #8 Billy B 20/1
17:12 SA-08 #10 Fair Ma 12/1
18:03 SA-09 #4 Storm t 20/1
Click to expand...


Do you have the Saturday blinker change info handy?>
 
blueline

blueline

EOG Master
Saturday Nov 02 2019

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Post TRK Pn Horse MLO
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
12:42 SA-02 #3 Roadste 7/5
13:17 SA-03 #12 Real Ma 50/1
13:17 SA-03 #9 Kingly 5/1
17:20 SA-09 #9 Circus *3/1
19:44 SA-12 #4 War of 20/1
 
trytrytry

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
LOL they are hyping the 10% track takeout on the head to head. they "forget" the dime breakage taking an extra 40% - 50% of the profit on USA from what it should be
 
John Kelly

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Four Wheel Drive goes gate-to-wire to start today's Breeders' Cup action.

The 3/2 fave never looked like a loser.
 
blueline

blueline

EOG Master
I bet the rail...had hope turning for home.....did get some place money and some head to head posted in BB thread...lost to the faster horse
 
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