Buffalo MAC At-Large

Heim

EOG Master
#1
Should they stumble in MAC tourney, I would think they get a bid.

The spreads are huge.

Even the great Ohio or Kent teams in the past were never this dominant.
 
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#4
Buffalo is in for sure. In back of my mind, I always wonder about shady business in these situations. MAC commissioner would surely LOVE two teams in NCAAs.

The other SMALL conference teams that rate as likely/possible At-Large teams from historically one-bid leagues:
* Wofford
* Lipscomb
* MurraySt. Murray's rating may be a tad low, but they'd love to showcase this rising star Morant.
 
#5
I think history shows that it's extremely tough to secure that At-Large bid from one-bid leagues. In other words, you show that you're a no-brainer or you get left out when they consider the bubble teams.
 

Sleepy

EOG Master
#6
St. Mary's went 27-5 last year and didn't get in. Same shit is going to happen to Buffalo with this NET crap if they don't win the conference tournament.

Mid Major's stand zero chance to get an at large bid these days.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#7
Buffalo is in for sure. In back of my mind, I always wonder about shady business in these situations. MAC commissioner would surely LOVE two teams in NCAAs.

The other SMALL conference teams that rate as likely/possible At-Large teams from historically one-bid leagues:
* Wofford
* Lipscomb
* MurraySt. Murray's rating may be a tad low, but they'd love to showcase this rising star Morant.

I was thinking the exact same thing earlier today.

Always looking for a game where one team is not interested in winning.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#8
St. Mary's went 27-5 last year and didn't get in. Same shit is going to happen to Buffalo with this NET crap if they don't win the conference tournament.

Mid Major's stand zero chance to get an at large bid these days.

Five teams with 8-10 conference records made the tournament last season.
 

brians

EOG Dedicated
#10
Ahh yes ASU. Lost in the first 4 to Syracuse. I had to look it up.

So I guess Cuse gets credited with 2 wins ... which makes the combined record 3-5 SU for teams with a losing conference record in last season's tournament.
 
#11
St. Mary's went 27-5 last year and didn't get in. Same shit is going to happen to Buffalo with this NET crap if they don't win the conference tournament.

Mid Major's stand zero chance to get an at large bid these days.
There Will be More mid Majors this year than maybe ever before, because the high major bubble teams are soooo bad.

Nebraska is 5-11 in the big 10 and they were considered on the bubble until today. It’s gross.

Southern conference has a chance at 2 bids... mac has a chance at 2 bids... Mountain west might get 2 or 3 (if Nevada and Utah state don’t win the conf champ), American is going to get 4-5,... hell, if liberty wins the championship, the Atlantic sun might get 2

Chance for some different teams than normal this year. Wofford and Libscomb getting at large would have seemed to be unthinkable going into the year.

The Southern could conceivably get 3: wofford is pretty Much a lock... furman COULD get an at large if they win out and lose in the championship.. and uncg or Etsu are capable of winning the tournament.

Toledo has an outside chance of an at large also in the MAC.

Would be fun to see multiple bids from smaller conferences
 
#13
I can't see the Southern Conference getting 2 at large teams in the tournament.
Uh.. why ?

If wofford loses in the tourney, they are still going to be in. There NET is 26, they have 8 road wins and they are 6-4 vs quad 1 and 2 teams... no bad losses at all. They are a lock.

They are currently projected as a 9 seed on bracket matrix.

If they lose the tourney, they will still be in. So there’s a good chance there is 2 teams.

Furman has a NET of 44...Out of there 5 losses, 4 are in quad 1– one bad loss (Samford).. the big villanova road win helps, and they are on fire right now. It’s a longshot, but if they beat wofford on sturday for a 2nd quad 1 win, and then lose to Etsu or uncg in the tourney, they could be selected as an at large

The one thing both have to do is avoid bad losses to end the season: wofford has @chattanooga and @samford to end the year.. And furman has the same schedule.

I’m still pissed about furmans one bad loss. They played Samford at home.. I needed the ML to finish a big parlay. They were down all game... went on a huge run and took a 10 pt lead with 3:45 left, and then Samford finished the game on a 14-2 run, including a 3 with 5 secs left to win by 2. In the last 20 seconds, furman missed 2 FTs and a big turnover when they were up 1 with 12 secs left when they couldn’t get the ball in. It was such an anomaly compared to the rest of the year.
 
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FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
#14
Uh.. why ?

If wofford loses in the tourney, they are still going to be in. There NET is 26, they have 8 road wins and they are 6-4 vs quad 1 and 2 teams... no bad losses at all. They are a lock.

They are currently projected as a 9 seed on bracket matrix.

If they lose the tourney, they will still be in. So there’s a good chance there is 2 teams.

Furman has a NET of 44...Out of there 5 losses, 4 are in quad 1– one bad loss (Samford).. the big villanova road win helps, and they are on fire right now. It’s a longshot, but if they beat wofford on sturday for a 2nd quad 1 win, and then lose to Etsu or uncg in the tourney, they could be selected as an at large

The one thing both have to do is avoid bad losses to end the season: wofford has @chattanooga and @samford to end the year.. And furman has the same schedule.

I’m still pissed about furmans one bad loss. They played Samford at home.. I needed the ML to finish a big parlay. They were down all game... went on a huge run and took a 10 pt lead with 3:45 left, and then Samford finished the game on a 14-2 run, including a 3 with 5 secs left to win by 2. In the last 20 seconds, furman missed 2 FTs and a big turnover when they were up 1 with 12 secs left when they couldn’t get the ball in. It was such an anomaly compared to the rest of the year.
Because there are teams like this every year and rarely get a sniff at-large. They just don’t play the schedule a 17-12 big conference plays in the selection committee’s mind. I don’t agree with it, but they have been consistent. St Mary’s had a few very good teams that couldn’t beat Gongaga and didn’t get selected.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
#15
Teams like Buffalo and Wofford would make great fades in their conference tourney. All of the pressure is on them. Possibly reffing can go against them as conferences would love to get that 2nd team ($$$).
 
#16
I can't see the Southern Conference getting 2 at large teams in the tournament.
I think you're looking at it wrong. If their Power rating is hi enuf, they'll get in. Nothing committee can do about it.

Buffalo in. Wofford very likely in, especially they sweep Conf Reg Season.

Lipscomb is a little more dubious. If the runout is specifically Lipscomb winning out, then losing to Liberty in Conf Finals...Lipscomb would be worthy of a long look.
 
#17
Teams like Buffalo and Wofford would make great fades in their conference tourney. All of the pressure is on them. Possibly reffing can go against them as conferences would love to get that 2nd team ($$$).
There’s no pressure on Buffalo.. they are a lock. There’s no way they don’t make it unless they lose 3 more games.

20+ teams would have to pass them. NET of 24, And 7-2 vs quad 1 and 2 teams is better than any bubble team.
 
#18
Because there are teams like this every year and rarely get a sniff at-large. They just don’t play the schedule a 17-12 big conference plays in the selection committee’s mind. I don’t agree with it, but they have been consistent. St Mary’s had a few very good teams that couldn’t beat Gongaga and didn’t get selected.
This season the bubble is historically weak.

The NET is the most important figure right now for the ncaas.

Wofford is 26th... ahead of Cincy, Iowa, Kansas state.

By all accounts, they are a 9 seed... they are about 15 teams above the cut line right now.

They aren’t missing the tourney, whether they lose in the southern tourney or not... barring a huge collapse in the last 3 games (losing 2 of 3)
 

TobyTyler

EOG Dedicated
#19
Indiana had a great opportunity last night, let it slip away. they are still alive though. they were smarter this year, along with some other big ten schools who scheduled some good ooc games.
Indiana played Marquette (W), Duke (L), Louisville (W), Butler (W)
 
#20
Indiana had a great opportunity last night, let it slip away. they are still alive though. they were smarter this year, along with some other big ten schools who scheduled some good ooc games.
Indiana played Marquette (W), Duke (L), Louisville (W), Butler (W)
What? They’ve lost 11 out of 12. They have no chance at all. They have a NET of 55.. they have a 13-13 record, and 5-13 vs quad 1 and 2. They are done... they might not even make the NIT at this point. Oh ya.. 2-8 road record.
 

TobyTyler

EOG Dedicated
#21
Indiana has four Q1 wins, last night would have been five. Unlikely now have plenty of work to do, though alive with michigan st, wisc, and iowa left to play.
 

Heim

EOG Master
#22
Let's hope Buffalo doesn't emulate Middle Tennessee State's 2018 end schedule losing their last reg season
game at home and exiting in first tournament match resulting in a snub. State's RPI registered the lowest
ever for a committee snub. I'm sure it facilitated Kermit Davis saying fuck it with mid-majors bolting to a Power 5 conference.

Moral of the story....BUF has to make it to MAC Final imo.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#23
I like when the Selection Committee makes a small conference powerhouse team pay for losing its conference tournament by crushing the team with a reduced seed number and a difficult first-round assignment.

No team should benefit financially by losing on purpose.

One thing I've noticed in recent years: Coaches from power conferences heap praise on the teams and coaches in their conference who are on the tournament bubble.

Makes sense.
 
#24
Let's hope Buffalo doesn't emulate Middle Tennessee State's 2018 end schedule losing their last reg season
game at home and exiting in first tournament match resulting in a snub. State's RPI registered the lowest
ever for a committee snub. I'm sure it facilitated Kermit Davis saying fuck it with mid-majors bolting to a Power 5 conference.

Moral of the story....BUF has to make it to MAC Final imo.
Seriously?

There is No way buffalo doesn’t get in. The resume is way better than mtsu unless they lose 3 more games. They are a 7 seed right now, if not better. MTSU was never projected that high. They also have the recognition of being ranked all year. #21 on NET and #23 on KenPom.

On Brennnans bubble watch, Buffalo, lipscomb and wofford are all under “should be in”. As in, it would take a HUGE collapse from them to not be in
 

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
#25
If Buffalo keeps their top 25 ranking all the way to the MAC final, it will be difficult to leave them out of the field of 68, despite seeing it misfortune teams in the past facing similar situations. Lipscomb and Wofford likely have more on the line and would need to win their conference tourneys as mid-majors. All this NET nonsense,, former RPI and even Joe Lunardi don't know their asses from their elbows. Only as recently as the last 2 seasons has Lunardi pegged team's fates more accurately, and even that's because the bubbles have been extremely so soft, they'd have to literally be on all fours and cross fingers for 3 or 4 teams to be in though they'd fall short of their overall body work. FWIW, I am all for seeing 2 teams from the true mid-majors make it, because no losses are seemingly bad if they qualified all season to be a sleeper or dark horse.
 
#27
Yep... that loss is killer, and kills their at-large hopes.

So bad..just needed to beat a couple bums to get in. Now they are going to have to beat A very tough team, liberty, for the 2nd time this year in the conf tourney
 
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#28
Yeah, Benoit. The way I view it, committee will use any reason to push Lipscomb off the bubble. Loss to bad FlaGulfCoast team is plenty reason.

For guys who bet the games (like us), keep an eye on Lipscomb + Liberty. These are very good teams in the minor conferences. Even if they don't make the NCAAs, they will be threats to go deep in the small tournaments.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#29
IMO, Buffalo is a lock. What the committee will do is under seed them or give them a rough matchup to ensure what happened last year, won't happen this year.
 
#31
IMO, Buffalo is a lock. What the committee will do is under seed them or give them a rough matchup to ensure what happened last year, won't happen this year.
I hate the conspiracies that they are out to get the mid majors

Loyola Chicago got plenty of pub and word of mouth cause of the great underdog story... so did vcu, George mason, Davidson and butler when they made there runs.

Nevada and buffalo have potential to go deep... Utah state, and wofford both have the same potential and both could be at larges.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
#34
What really hurts the mid majors is the elimination of the bracket-buster weekend. These teams haven’t played a meaningful game in seven weeks (by big dance standards). The more conference games they play, the schedule gets weaker. Let’s say an IU gets hot, they are beating teams that mid majors don’t face.
 
#35
Indiana is not getting hot lol. Why is everyone so enamored with them and Nebraska this year? Indiana has lost 11 out of 12...Nebraska has won 4 out of 14 in 2019.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
#36
Indiana is not getting hot lol. Why is everyone so enamored with them and Nebraska this year? Indiana has lost 11 out of 12...Nebraska has won 4 out of 14 in 2019.
Just any middling power conference team then. It happens every year. Power conference teams play themselves out of the tourney, while mid majors have to play themselves into the tourney.
 
#37
What really hurts the mid majors is the elimination of the bracket-buster weekend. These teams haven’t played a meaningful game in seven weeks (by big dance standards). The more conference games they play, the schedule gets weaker. Let’s say an IU gets hot, they are beating teams that mid majors don’t face.
Did NCAA get rid of Bracket Buster weekend? That was a great concept. Several bubble teams could use one more win vs top50 opponent.
 

TobyTyler

EOG Dedicated
#40
What? They’ve lost 11 out of 12. They have no chance at all. They have a NET of 55.. they have a 13-13 record, and 5-13 vs quad 1 and 2. They are done... they might not even make the NIT at this point. Oh ya.. 2-8 road record.
Two games away from locking their spot up, will be favored in both
 
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