dirty
EOG Master
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD></TD><TD>March 28, 2006
Eric Mack
Senior Fantasy Writer
Tell Eric your opinion</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!-- T9341986 --><!-- Sesame Modified: 03/28/2006 17:28:49 --><!-- sversion: 11 $Updated: emack$ -->FORT LAUDERDALE -- It was just last March when many in Fantasy Baseball looked at a young player like Jose Reyes and saw the "injury-prone" tag flashing next to his name on their cheat sheets. Well, 161 games, 696 at-bats and 60 steals later, someone had a literal steal on their hands in your Rotisserie league last year.
It's a case study in how to play the high-stakes game of Fantasy roulette: Where high-risk, high-reward guys on Draft Day can leave a team looking like a powerhouse by midseason, or fit for dismantling.
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=100 align=right><TBODY><TR><TD width=100>
</TD><TD width=15> </TD><TD width=15></TD></TR><TR><TD width=120><CENTER>Get your 2006 Owners Manual and Draft Guide! </CENTER></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>The intention here is not to predict the future health of every player in baseball, but we will say those who are quick to drop "injury-risk" and "brittle" tags on guys are gold mines. They will allow some of the best talent in the draft to fall to you because of some past or present health concerns.
Granted, it seems to happen to certain players more than most, namely Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, Josh Beckett and Ken Griffey Jr., but there is nothing in their genetic codes that suggests bad things will strike them down again.
Take Reyes, for instance. A 22-year-old phenom who ran -- pun intended -- into leg problems his first 1 1/2 years in the big leagues. First it was his hamstring, then his back when they retrained him how to run, the hamstring again, and finally, his ankle.
Often the biggest "injury-risk" players are some of the most talented in baseball, however their teams tend to play it cautiously with them. Such was the case with Reyes. How exactly, do you attempt to teach one of the fastest players in baseball how to run? Shouldn't that type of speedster be teaching the rest of baseball how to run?
Well, he went back to running his way, playing a full winter league schedule and then running out there virtually every day in spring training. He missed just one game during the 2005 season -- given a scheduled day off -- and played innings one-through-nine in just about every one of the other 161 games.
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=150 align=left><TBODY><TR><TD width=150>
</TD><TD width=15> </TD></TR><TR><TD width=150>If you dismiss a player with an injury history, you could miss out on a great breakout or sleeper like Jose Reyes '05. (AP) </TD><TD width=15> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>And still people see Reyes as an injury risk. Good for us. It will only make him more affordable on Draft Day to people who have good senses.
Reyes is still being asked the questions about his spindlely legs, to which he smiles and just enjoys the attention to past detail.
"I don't want to talk about that," Reyes joked, acting as if the criticism still got to him, before getting serious and admitting, "That's in the past. I don't worry anymore."
We shouldn't either. Here is a blow-by-blow account of the players in the injury risk category this spring and our subjective values on their risk and reward:
RH SP Pedro Martinez, 34, Mets
Toe, shoulder -- Expected to be ready for early April
Martinez was able to make his start over the weekend and will get one more look before possibly pitching Game 3 of the season for the Mets. It's pretty interesting news, because Pedro will be a mismatch in his outings for the first half of the season, working against middle to back-end starters for the most part.
The problem is, will he be able to make that start? We say, "Yes," with some hesitation.
Martinez's issue this year is a chronic toe that requires a special shoe so he won't feel pain on every pitch. It's what kept him out of the World Baseball Classic and held him out of a throwing program most of the winter. That is interesting, too, because if he can build up arm strength quickly and safely enough, it could prove to keep him cranking later into the season, where he has become a six-inning pitcher in past years.
If his toe is even a nagging pain, it could prove dangerous, though, because of its affect on his mechanics and the strain on his shoulder. We won't predict anything here, but we will say the rewards outweigh the risk at this point.
Risk: High
Reward: Higher
LF Barry Bonds, 41, Giants
Knee, elbow -- Out until at least early April
He's the biggest question mark entering the season, unless you just expect him to miss at least 25 percent of the season. Then, there's really a lot less to question about him.
The Giants are saying Bonds will play no more than 100-120 games, which means a couple of DL stints and/or a whole bunch of periodic days off -- particularly day games after night games. You can all but write those off in leagues that do daily lineup changes.
Bonds' latest injury on his aging body is an inflamed elbow, but he still should be ready for the season. Expect more problems as the season wears on. His knee, which required three surgeries and kept him out of all but 14 games last season, appears to be good enough to hold up for now.
If you don't mind the weekly anguish and tracking of his health, you're going to get a very productive outfielder far cheaper than where his production would ordinarily have him go in a draft. The problem is he's high maintenance, but that's a good thing for those of us who don't mind that caveat.
Risk: High
Reward: High
RH SP Mark Prior, 25, Cubs
Shoulder strain -- Out until at least mid-April
Prior entered spring as healthy as he has been since going into 2003's banner year (18-6, 2.43 ERA). He exits his third consecutive spring the same way: on the DL.
He's the proverbial "What if" player. As likely for a Cy Young as he is for season-ending surgery. Like Reyes, though, age is still on Prior's side to kick the injury stigma. His ailments tend to be less serious than all the coddling he gets. If they only coddled him when he's healthy, too. It might be his 2003 season and postseason that has led him to injury hell.
We will attempt to say here: Don't worry too much about his recent ailment, or last season's broken elbow. Those were freak things that happened unexpectedly and should be out of his system once he builds his arm strength back up. It might take him until May to be completely up to speed, but it will be well worth the wait.
Risk: Medium
Reward: High
RH SP Kerry Wood, 28, Cubs
Shoulder surgery, knee surgery -- Out until at least late April
Yes, pitching coach Larry Rothschild, manager Dusty Baker and GM Jim Hendry are alternately getting grilled for ruining two of baseball's best arms.
In the case of Wood, it's a chronic condition, but reports are he's throwing as well as he has since 2003, too (14-11, 3.20). If not for the knee setback this spring, we could have had the luxury of seeing Wood open the year in the Cubs' rotation. As it is, the Cubs are anticipating Wood building up arm strength and knee stability for most of April before returning to Chicago's rotation.
The shoulder surgery seems to have brought back his early pitch-count heat, but the question of whether he can sustain mid-90s stuff past 100 pitches remains. We won't know that until May at the earliest, but buy now while the buying is good.
Risk: High
Reward: High
RH CL Eric Gagne, 30, Dodgers
Elbow -- Ready for the season
Gagne is proving healthy this spring after another season-ending procedure on his right elbow last season. It was not the reconstructive variety this time around, so the timetable to return is six months, instead of a year or two.
While reports are he's not yet back up to his original velocity, he has pitched well and his movement and ability to change speeds are still top-notch. While the injury will scare some away, his former status as a rare Cy Young closer will make him tough to get at a good price on Draft Day.
Risk: High
Reward: High
RH SP Ben Sheets, 27, Brewers
Oblique, back -- Out until at least mid-April
The Brewers have already announced Sheets will open the season on the DL, but they are still expecting him to return in time for the first appearance of the No. 5 starter's spot in mid-April. It's becoming an annual thing with Sheets, who has been as dominant as he has been risk the past year-plus.
We say he returns a little too soon, has a minor setback, but finally rights himself and works over 200 innings in 2006. They will be far more dominant innings in the second half once he builds up strength.
Risk: High
Reward: High
LH CL Billy Wagner, 34, Mets
Finger, elbow -- Out until late March
It's usually a tender elbow -- a result of wicked 100-mph heat from an undersized lefty -- that is Wagner's downfall. Right now it's a meddlesome finger issue that had him shut down. It would hardly be news had Wagner not already been behind in his throwing program this spring and had serious elbow issues before.
For now, Wagner's issues are mundane, but you have to remember his history before you sign him off as a safe bet. Having even the slightest problem could throw his freak-like heat out of whack and cause something more serious.
Risk: Medium
Reward: High
RH SP A.J. Burnett, 28, Blue Jays
Elbow -- Out until at least mid-April
Burnett stirred up some scar tissue in his reconstructed elbow this spring and was shut down until recently, which will cause him to open the season on the DL and miss at least one start. He has had scares like this in the recent past and usually comes back throwing 98 mph after 100 pitches.
You should feel pretty safe with him as one of your starters this season, even if his injury past will having you holding your breath every time he rubs his elbow.
Risk: Medium
Reward: High
RH SP Curt Schilling, 39, Red Sox
Ankle, shoulder -- Expected to be ready for the season
At this point, Schilling's age is a more chronic condition than his ailments of years past. The veteran ace enters this season far ahead of his slowed-up pace post-World Series hangover and offseason ankle surgery.
Schilling should hardly be an injury risk and more of a age risk on Draft Day. Still, his arm and stuff can be high end.
Risk: Medium
Reward: High
RH CL Keith Foulke, 33, Red Sox
Knee -- Expected to be ready for the season
Foulke is more of a worry for the Red Sox than Schilling at this point. He got a late start this spring and need a serious of injections in his knee.
He has looked good in recent outings and the Red Sox are committed to giving him the chance to prove his health and dominance. They do have Jon Papelbon and Craig Hansen as reserve closer options, but they're more of insurance items for Foulke in Fantasy, where the changeup specialist can be a great injury-risk sleeper on Draft Day.
Risk: Medium
Reward: Medium
SS Carlos Guillen, 30, Tigers
Back, knee -- Out until early April
Guillen is expected to be ready for opening day, but his annual injury questions are getting old for Fantasy owners. After his breakthrough in 2004 (.318-20-97-97-12), Guillen blew out his knee and struggled all last season because he tried to rush back.
Now his issue is his back, but that's deemed less chronic. Either way, he's squarely in the perennial injury-risk category and will have to prove and hit his way out of that. He's getting old for an unproven shortstop commodity.
Risk: High
Reward: Medium
OF Magglio Ordonez, 32, Tigers
Knee -- Is ready for the season
The injury says "knee," but that's just the most serious of his various doctor's excuse the past few seasons. Ordonez is a shell of his former self physically and is now official entering the past his prime stage of his career. The Tigers made a huge mistake paying top dollar for this guy. Don't make the same mistake yourself.
Risk: High
Reward: Medium
1B Mike Sweeney, 32, Royals
Ankle -- Out until late March
It says "ankle" but it really could say "any," because Sweeney is one of those players who is chronically injured, if not injured chronically. Usually his biggest issue is his back, and it will be again, eventually.
Too bad, too, because he could really be a sleeper if he ever saw 500 at-bats again. At his age, you have to assume and expect the worst.
Risk: High
Reward: Medium
C Jason LaRue, 32, Reds
Knee surgery -- Out until at least late April
It shouldn't be a great surprise a 32-year-old catcher suddenly required knee surgery this spring. That's the age of breakdown for the position that squats 120-plus times a game.
LaRue will miss the start of the season, but he can still be a decent low-end source of power when he returns. The Reds have a good hitter's park and a productive lineup. This all assumes Javier Valentin, a younger and equally powerful reserve, doesn't run away with the full-time job in LaRue's absence.
Risk: Medium
Reward: Medium
DH Frank Thomas, 37, Athletics
Ankle, foot -- Expected to be ready for the season
Thomas has gotten a bum rap the past few seasons with his chronic ankle woes, but he did hit 30 homers in just over 300 at-bats during that time. That's about what you can expect in the way of power production in he's able to get that many at-bats.
Age is not on his side, so you will have to expect that's about all he will be good for this season. With what it will take to get him, count that as not bad return on your investment.
Risk: Medium
Reward: High
RH SP Zack Greinke, 22, Royals
Personal -- Out until at least late April
It has never been reported what led Greinke to need pyschological help, but we have to imagine it has to due with the fact the Royals made the rushed phenom compete for his job this spring in the Royals' rotation. As if pitching for the Royals the past year and a half wasn't mentally anguishing enough.
Greinke's return is still not determined, but you have to put it at least a month from the time he finally picks up a baseball again, perhaps more if he opens the season on the DL and eventually on a minor league rehab assignment. Greinke has a lot of demons to take care of before he's going to be right again and it has nothing to do with his physical health.
Risk: High
Reward: Medium
RH SP Rich Harden, 24, Athletics
Shoulder, oblique -- Expected to be ready for the season
One of the most dynamic arms in baseball has yet to prove capable of a 200-plus inning season, but if he does make it that deep with health, you could be getting a breakout Cy Young candidate capable of 18-plus victories and 200-plus strikeouts.
He hasn't had any problems this spring, so consider his injury history just that: history.
Risk: Low
Reward: High
RH SP Josh Beckett, 25, Red Sox
Shoulder -- Expected to be ready for season
Beckett's 2005 campaign ended early due to some shoulder weakness that can likely be attributed to the fact it was the first time he was able to go over 160 innings in a season. Apparently it was just a dead arm period for him, because his shoulder passed a physical once (pre-trade), twice (during trade) and three times (at the start of spring).
Beckett has looked better this spring after a slow start and should be able to post his first 200-plus inning, 200-plus strikeout campaign. That should make him a Cy Young candidate in Boston and one of the best starting pitchers in Fantasy.
Risk: Low
Reward: High
CF Rocco Baldelli, 24, Devil Rays
Elbow, knee, hamstring -- Might be out until mid-April
Baldelli missed all of last season with a torn up knee that required reconstructive surgery, then he was about to return and torn up his elbow and needed reconstructive surgery on that. This spring he finally was able to play the field again, but came down with a sore hammy.
You get the sense it might never end, but that kind of thinking caused many to miss out on Jose Reyes last season. Consider taking the injury risk flier on Baldelli for decent rewards, particularly in Rotisserie leagues.
Risk: Medium
Reward: Medium
CF Jeremy Reed, 25, Mariners
Wrist -- Out until at least May
Reed's head-first style caught up to him in spring training. This is actually a blessing in disguise for those who haven't already had him on their team at this point. He was a risky sophomore pick when healthy after his bust-worthy rookie season.
The injury makes it a slam dunk to ignore him for the most part on Draft Day.
Now, those of you still high on his potential can get him far below market value to stash away on DL for a month at least. There is still the possibility that wrist won't heal properly, too -- there are just so many tiny bones in an area where blood supply can be limited -- so make him nothing more than a flier at this point.
Risk: High
Reward: Medium
2B Rickie Weeks, 23, Brewers
Wrist, oblique -- Expect to be ready for the season
It was a nagging wrist that caused Weeks' big splash to get lower grades from the judges late last season. It was corrected this offseason and shouldn't be a problem, although Weeks did come down with a minor oblique issue in spring.
You have to start to wonder if he's going to be that type of player who always has something you have to think about, but as we said above, that will only make him more affordable to the rest of us less skittish about every bump and bruise.
Consider him an outstanding breakout candidate as a speed-and-power second baseman. He's an eventual 30-30 candidate, even if he only sees 20-20 in his near future in 2006.
Risk: Low
Reward: High
RH SP Wade Miller, 29, Cubs
Shoulder surgery -- Out until at least May
This is one the Cubs won't take the blame for. Miller's shoulder hasn't been right since 2003, so the Cubs figure they might try hitting the trifecta on bringing shoulders back. After all, they have gained a lot of experience in that regard.
Even if Miller is able to prove capable of getting big league hitters out, he will be nothing more than a back-end starter in Fantasy leagues. He just wasn't that dominant at his best.
Risk: High
Reward: Low
RH RP Dustin Hermanson, 33, White Sox
Back -- Out until at least early April
Age is most definitely not on Hermanson's side in his bout with back problems. There were rumblings he might even consider retirement. Even with health, the White Sox are going to try Bobby Jenks, who has been wild and terrible this spring, and then Neal Cotts in the closer's role. That leaves Hermanson fairly worthless in Fantasy leagues at this point.
Risk: High
Reward: Low
RH SP Paul Wilson, 33, Reds
Shoulder surgery -- Out until at least mid-April
Wilson missed most of last season with a torn labrum and had season-ending surgery. He has gotten off to a late start this spring, but the Reds seem like they're anticipating a return once he gets 30 innings under his belt.
The question will be where he fits into the Reds rotation and the answer is no better than the back end, which is where he belongs in NL-only leagues when he comes back officially.
Risk: Medium
Reward: Low
RH CL Mike MacDougal, 29, Royals
Arm surgery -- Out until at least May
MacDougal's sudden misfortune was Ambiorix Burgos' gain. Burgos, a hard-throwing youngster, will open the season as the Royals' closer and might not give it back if he soars.
MacDougal is not expected to have any long term effects from his arm problem, but you will have to wait and see on the closer's job before considering him viable in most Fantasy leagues. Even if he does close again some time in the first half, it's still for the Royals.
Risk: Medium
Reward: Low
SS Cesar Izturis, 26, Dodgers
Tommy John elbow surgery -- Out until at least June
Izturis is making strides in his recovery and could beat his return, but the Dodgers are not in a hurry for the drama that will ensue. Izturis is a player without a position -- even if he gets healthy and returns to being a Gold Glove caliber shortstop, he will have to sit behind free-agent signee Rafael Furcal and future Hall of Famer Jeff Kent, who wants no part of a move to first.
The Dodgers will not move an unwilling Kent to first to move an equally shaky Nomar Garciaparra to left. Not for a player of Izturis' limited potential.
Izturis' best bet is to get healthy and prove worthy as trade bait.
Risk: Low
Reward: Low
2B Kaz Matsui, 30, Mets
Knee -- Out until at least mid-April
Matsui was already on shaky ground this spring, so his knee injury didn't do much to help his non-existent Fantasy status. At least he has a scapegoat now.
Matsui won't be anything near what his contract pays him to be, but he can be a low-risk flier late in NL-only leagues. If he ever stays on the field, his 2004 numbers are attainable.
Risk: Low
Reward: Medium
RH SP Carl Pavano, 30, Yankees
Shoulder -- Out until at least late April
The Yankees played it cautious with Pavano this spring, shutting him down quickly when his back flared up. It was his shoulder that led to his awful 2005 and caused the worry going into this season, though.
He will need to build up his arm strength in a normal spring training timetable, which is about a month and 30 innings. The Yankees are fine with that and hope Pavano can revert to something close to his Marlins form.
You have to love the offensive production he will get if he can string some quality starts together before the All-Star break. Because of the vast failures of Yankees' pitchers of late, Pavano is going really cheaply on Draft Day, making the cost/risk as low as it as ever been -- even if the injury questions are still high.
Risk: Low
Reward: High
RH SP Chien-Ming Wang, 26, Yankees
Shoulder, knee -- Out until late March
Wang is unfairly characterized as an injury risk, if he even is in your league. A year ago was his first full season of trying to push his innings against top competition, so a little dead arm could have been expected. The Yankees were trying to get too much out of him too soon.
This spring he all but has a rotation spot locked up and should be ready for the fourth game of the season. Remember how good he was at his best last year and the fact that the Yankees' lineup is much better now with the renaissance of Jason Giambi and the addition of Johnny Damon.
Risk: Low
Reward: Medium
RH RP Jaret Wright, 30, Yankees
Shoulder, back -- Hoping to be ready for the season
Even if Wright was able to prove healthy this spring, his awful 2005 has him downgraded right out of most mixed-league drafts. Like Pavano, Wright has developed a back problem to go with his shoulder woes.
He looks like he will open the season in the Yankees' bullpen with nothing but spot starts, barring more injury or a surprising recovery of his high-90s heat. That's not back yet, and Wright won't be completely either in Fantasy.
Risk: Low
Reward: Medium
OF Larry Bigbie, 28, Cardinals
Foot -- Out until at least late April
Bigbie has been that talented player ready to prove worthy of an everyday job. His broken foot is his latest reason to think otherwise. Consider him nothing more than an NL-only outfielder this season and don't worry if you miss out on him. It's not like he has proven productive when healthy.
Risk: Low
Reward: Medium
3B David Bell, 33, Phillies
Back -- Out until at least early April
Bell didn't need to add injury to the insulting production he has provided on the hot corner for the Phillies, but he has. Just in case you were looking for him to rebound, he saved you from that by missing most of spring and possibly opening the season on the DL with a stiff back. Alex S. Gonzalez and Abraham Nunez can do all Bell can do, probably more.
Risk: High
Reward: Low
RH RP Octavio Dotel, 32, Yankees
Elbow -- Out until at least June
The Yankees made an underrated move, getting Dotel under contract coming off reconstructive elbow surgery. Dotel is hoping to return to the Yankees by the All-Star break and should be able to get big outs in the second half. The problem with him won't be his health as much as his limited role. Mariano Rivera hasn't allowed many spare save opportunities for middle relievers in recent years.
Risk: Low
Reward: Low
LH SP Randy Wolf, 29, Phillies
Tommy John elbow surgery -- Out until at least mid-July
Wolf is hoping to be able to pitch in the second half. He was once a solid lefty and would get ample run support if he returned to the Phillies' rotation. It's likely he returns in long relief at first -- especially if the Phillies are in contention and have developed another option to make starts in his stead.
Stash him away only if you have ample DL spots, but expect to have to cut him if he does return slowly in relief.
Risk: Low
Reward: Medium
RH SP Kip Wells, 28, Pirates
Shoulder -- Out until at least mid-July
Wells had the same issue that ruined Aaron Cook's development with the Rockies -- a strange circulatory problem in his arm/shoulder that was causing blood clots and required surgery. They were able to correct the problem via surgery and have moved his return date up until midseason.
Consider him an NL-only flier if he winds up in the Pirates rotation in the second half. Stash him away now only if you have ample room on your DL.
Risk: Low
Reward: Medium
1B Jeff Bagwell, 37, Astros
Shoulder -- Might be out for the season
Bagwell gave it a try this spring, but was unable to get comfortable with his chronic shoulder problem. His age makes it likely he's all but done. Consider him out for the year.
Lance Berkman will play first, along with Mike Lamb, while Preston Wilson, Willy Taveras and Jason Lane will be the Astros' outfield. Chris Burke will be in the mix to get at-bats, spelling those outfielders and Craig Biggio at second and now Adam Everett at short.
Risk: High
Reward: None
Also, the Nationals have already lost Brian Lawrence (shoulder), Luis Ayala (elbow) and T.J. Tucker (elbow) for the season. Ryan Drese (shoulder) is hoping for a first half return, but will need to build up arm strength and then prove worthy of a rotation spot before you consider him in anything but the deepest of NL-only leagues.
You can e-mail your potential free agent questions to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Injury risks in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal responses or answers to all questions.
</TD><TD> </TD><TD width=160>Fantasy Columns
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Eric Mack
Senior Fantasy Writer
Tell Eric your opinion</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!-- T9341986 --><!-- Sesame Modified: 03/28/2006 17:28:49 --><!-- sversion: 11 $Updated: emack$ -->FORT LAUDERDALE -- It was just last March when many in Fantasy Baseball looked at a young player like Jose Reyes and saw the "injury-prone" tag flashing next to his name on their cheat sheets. Well, 161 games, 696 at-bats and 60 steals later, someone had a literal steal on their hands in your Rotisserie league last year.
It's a case study in how to play the high-stakes game of Fantasy roulette: Where high-risk, high-reward guys on Draft Day can leave a team looking like a powerhouse by midseason, or fit for dismantling.
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=100 align=right><TBODY><TR><TD width=100>
</TD><TD width=15> </TD><TD width=15></TD></TR><TR><TD width=120><CENTER>Get your 2006 Owners Manual and Draft Guide! </CENTER></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>The intention here is not to predict the future health of every player in baseball, but we will say those who are quick to drop "injury-risk" and "brittle" tags on guys are gold mines. They will allow some of the best talent in the draft to fall to you because of some past or present health concerns. Granted, it seems to happen to certain players more than most, namely Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, Josh Beckett and Ken Griffey Jr., but there is nothing in their genetic codes that suggests bad things will strike them down again.
Take Reyes, for instance. A 22-year-old phenom who ran -- pun intended -- into leg problems his first 1 1/2 years in the big leagues. First it was his hamstring, then his back when they retrained him how to run, the hamstring again, and finally, his ankle.
Often the biggest "injury-risk" players are some of the most talented in baseball, however their teams tend to play it cautiously with them. Such was the case with Reyes. How exactly, do you attempt to teach one of the fastest players in baseball how to run? Shouldn't that type of speedster be teaching the rest of baseball how to run?
Well, he went back to running his way, playing a full winter league schedule and then running out there virtually every day in spring training. He missed just one game during the 2005 season -- given a scheduled day off -- and played innings one-through-nine in just about every one of the other 161 games.
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=150 align=left><TBODY><TR><TD width=150>
</TD><TD width=15> </TD></TR><TR><TD width=150>If you dismiss a player with an injury history, you could miss out on a great breakout or sleeper like Jose Reyes '05. (AP) </TD><TD width=15> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>And still people see Reyes as an injury risk. Good for us. It will only make him more affordable on Draft Day to people who have good senses. Reyes is still being asked the questions about his spindlely legs, to which he smiles and just enjoys the attention to past detail.
"I don't want to talk about that," Reyes joked, acting as if the criticism still got to him, before getting serious and admitting, "That's in the past. I don't worry anymore."
We shouldn't either. Here is a blow-by-blow account of the players in the injury risk category this spring and our subjective values on their risk and reward:
RH SP Pedro Martinez, 34, Mets
Toe, shoulder -- Expected to be ready for early April
Martinez was able to make his start over the weekend and will get one more look before possibly pitching Game 3 of the season for the Mets. It's pretty interesting news, because Pedro will be a mismatch in his outings for the first half of the season, working against middle to back-end starters for the most part.
The problem is, will he be able to make that start? We say, "Yes," with some hesitation.
Martinez's issue this year is a chronic toe that requires a special shoe so he won't feel pain on every pitch. It's what kept him out of the World Baseball Classic and held him out of a throwing program most of the winter. That is interesting, too, because if he can build up arm strength quickly and safely enough, it could prove to keep him cranking later into the season, where he has become a six-inning pitcher in past years.
If his toe is even a nagging pain, it could prove dangerous, though, because of its affect on his mechanics and the strain on his shoulder. We won't predict anything here, but we will say the rewards outweigh the risk at this point.
Risk: High
Reward: Higher
LF Barry Bonds, 41, Giants
Knee, elbow -- Out until at least early April
He's the biggest question mark entering the season, unless you just expect him to miss at least 25 percent of the season. Then, there's really a lot less to question about him.
The Giants are saying Bonds will play no more than 100-120 games, which means a couple of DL stints and/or a whole bunch of periodic days off -- particularly day games after night games. You can all but write those off in leagues that do daily lineup changes.
Bonds' latest injury on his aging body is an inflamed elbow, but he still should be ready for the season. Expect more problems as the season wears on. His knee, which required three surgeries and kept him out of all but 14 games last season, appears to be good enough to hold up for now.
If you don't mind the weekly anguish and tracking of his health, you're going to get a very productive outfielder far cheaper than where his production would ordinarily have him go in a draft. The problem is he's high maintenance, but that's a good thing for those of us who don't mind that caveat.
Risk: High
Reward: High
RH SP Mark Prior, 25, Cubs
Shoulder strain -- Out until at least mid-April
Prior entered spring as healthy as he has been since going into 2003's banner year (18-6, 2.43 ERA). He exits his third consecutive spring the same way: on the DL.
He's the proverbial "What if" player. As likely for a Cy Young as he is for season-ending surgery. Like Reyes, though, age is still on Prior's side to kick the injury stigma. His ailments tend to be less serious than all the coddling he gets. If they only coddled him when he's healthy, too. It might be his 2003 season and postseason that has led him to injury hell.
We will attempt to say here: Don't worry too much about his recent ailment, or last season's broken elbow. Those were freak things that happened unexpectedly and should be out of his system once he builds his arm strength back up. It might take him until May to be completely up to speed, but it will be well worth the wait.
Risk: Medium
Reward: High
RH SP Kerry Wood, 28, Cubs
Shoulder surgery, knee surgery -- Out until at least late April
Yes, pitching coach Larry Rothschild, manager Dusty Baker and GM Jim Hendry are alternately getting grilled for ruining two of baseball's best arms.
In the case of Wood, it's a chronic condition, but reports are he's throwing as well as he has since 2003, too (14-11, 3.20). If not for the knee setback this spring, we could have had the luxury of seeing Wood open the year in the Cubs' rotation. As it is, the Cubs are anticipating Wood building up arm strength and knee stability for most of April before returning to Chicago's rotation.
The shoulder surgery seems to have brought back his early pitch-count heat, but the question of whether he can sustain mid-90s stuff past 100 pitches remains. We won't know that until May at the earliest, but buy now while the buying is good.
Risk: High
Reward: High
RH CL Eric Gagne, 30, Dodgers
Elbow -- Ready for the season
Gagne is proving healthy this spring after another season-ending procedure on his right elbow last season. It was not the reconstructive variety this time around, so the timetable to return is six months, instead of a year or two.
While reports are he's not yet back up to his original velocity, he has pitched well and his movement and ability to change speeds are still top-notch. While the injury will scare some away, his former status as a rare Cy Young closer will make him tough to get at a good price on Draft Day.
Risk: High
Reward: High
RH SP Ben Sheets, 27, Brewers
Oblique, back -- Out until at least mid-April
The Brewers have already announced Sheets will open the season on the DL, but they are still expecting him to return in time for the first appearance of the No. 5 starter's spot in mid-April. It's becoming an annual thing with Sheets, who has been as dominant as he has been risk the past year-plus.
We say he returns a little too soon, has a minor setback, but finally rights himself and works over 200 innings in 2006. They will be far more dominant innings in the second half once he builds up strength.
Risk: High
Reward: High
LH CL Billy Wagner, 34, Mets
Finger, elbow -- Out until late March
It's usually a tender elbow -- a result of wicked 100-mph heat from an undersized lefty -- that is Wagner's downfall. Right now it's a meddlesome finger issue that had him shut down. It would hardly be news had Wagner not already been behind in his throwing program this spring and had serious elbow issues before.
For now, Wagner's issues are mundane, but you have to remember his history before you sign him off as a safe bet. Having even the slightest problem could throw his freak-like heat out of whack and cause something more serious.
Risk: Medium
Reward: High
RH SP A.J. Burnett, 28, Blue Jays
Elbow -- Out until at least mid-April
Burnett stirred up some scar tissue in his reconstructed elbow this spring and was shut down until recently, which will cause him to open the season on the DL and miss at least one start. He has had scares like this in the recent past and usually comes back throwing 98 mph after 100 pitches.
You should feel pretty safe with him as one of your starters this season, even if his injury past will having you holding your breath every time he rubs his elbow.
Risk: Medium
Reward: High
RH SP Curt Schilling, 39, Red Sox
Ankle, shoulder -- Expected to be ready for the season
At this point, Schilling's age is a more chronic condition than his ailments of years past. The veteran ace enters this season far ahead of his slowed-up pace post-World Series hangover and offseason ankle surgery.
Schilling should hardly be an injury risk and more of a age risk on Draft Day. Still, his arm and stuff can be high end.
Risk: Medium
Reward: High
RH CL Keith Foulke, 33, Red Sox
Knee -- Expected to be ready for the season
Foulke is more of a worry for the Red Sox than Schilling at this point. He got a late start this spring and need a serious of injections in his knee.
He has looked good in recent outings and the Red Sox are committed to giving him the chance to prove his health and dominance. They do have Jon Papelbon and Craig Hansen as reserve closer options, but they're more of insurance items for Foulke in Fantasy, where the changeup specialist can be a great injury-risk sleeper on Draft Day.
Risk: Medium
Reward: Medium
SS Carlos Guillen, 30, Tigers
Back, knee -- Out until early April
Guillen is expected to be ready for opening day, but his annual injury questions are getting old for Fantasy owners. After his breakthrough in 2004 (.318-20-97-97-12), Guillen blew out his knee and struggled all last season because he tried to rush back.
Now his issue is his back, but that's deemed less chronic. Either way, he's squarely in the perennial injury-risk category and will have to prove and hit his way out of that. He's getting old for an unproven shortstop commodity.
Risk: High
Reward: Medium
OF Magglio Ordonez, 32, Tigers
Knee -- Is ready for the season
The injury says "knee," but that's just the most serious of his various doctor's excuse the past few seasons. Ordonez is a shell of his former self physically and is now official entering the past his prime stage of his career. The Tigers made a huge mistake paying top dollar for this guy. Don't make the same mistake yourself.
Risk: High
Reward: Medium
1B Mike Sweeney, 32, Royals
Ankle -- Out until late March
It says "ankle" but it really could say "any," because Sweeney is one of those players who is chronically injured, if not injured chronically. Usually his biggest issue is his back, and it will be again, eventually.
Too bad, too, because he could really be a sleeper if he ever saw 500 at-bats again. At his age, you have to assume and expect the worst.
Risk: High
Reward: Medium
C Jason LaRue, 32, Reds
Knee surgery -- Out until at least late April
It shouldn't be a great surprise a 32-year-old catcher suddenly required knee surgery this spring. That's the age of breakdown for the position that squats 120-plus times a game.
LaRue will miss the start of the season, but he can still be a decent low-end source of power when he returns. The Reds have a good hitter's park and a productive lineup. This all assumes Javier Valentin, a younger and equally powerful reserve, doesn't run away with the full-time job in LaRue's absence.
Risk: Medium
Reward: Medium
DH Frank Thomas, 37, Athletics
Ankle, foot -- Expected to be ready for the season
Thomas has gotten a bum rap the past few seasons with his chronic ankle woes, but he did hit 30 homers in just over 300 at-bats during that time. That's about what you can expect in the way of power production in he's able to get that many at-bats.
Age is not on his side, so you will have to expect that's about all he will be good for this season. With what it will take to get him, count that as not bad return on your investment.
Risk: Medium
Reward: High
RH SP Zack Greinke, 22, Royals
Personal -- Out until at least late April
It has never been reported what led Greinke to need pyschological help, but we have to imagine it has to due with the fact the Royals made the rushed phenom compete for his job this spring in the Royals' rotation. As if pitching for the Royals the past year and a half wasn't mentally anguishing enough.
Greinke's return is still not determined, but you have to put it at least a month from the time he finally picks up a baseball again, perhaps more if he opens the season on the DL and eventually on a minor league rehab assignment. Greinke has a lot of demons to take care of before he's going to be right again and it has nothing to do with his physical health.
Risk: High
Reward: Medium
RH SP Rich Harden, 24, Athletics
Shoulder, oblique -- Expected to be ready for the season
One of the most dynamic arms in baseball has yet to prove capable of a 200-plus inning season, but if he does make it that deep with health, you could be getting a breakout Cy Young candidate capable of 18-plus victories and 200-plus strikeouts.
He hasn't had any problems this spring, so consider his injury history just that: history.
Risk: Low
Reward: High
RH SP Josh Beckett, 25, Red Sox
Shoulder -- Expected to be ready for season
Beckett's 2005 campaign ended early due to some shoulder weakness that can likely be attributed to the fact it was the first time he was able to go over 160 innings in a season. Apparently it was just a dead arm period for him, because his shoulder passed a physical once (pre-trade), twice (during trade) and three times (at the start of spring).
Beckett has looked better this spring after a slow start and should be able to post his first 200-plus inning, 200-plus strikeout campaign. That should make him a Cy Young candidate in Boston and one of the best starting pitchers in Fantasy.
Risk: Low
Reward: High
CF Rocco Baldelli, 24, Devil Rays
Elbow, knee, hamstring -- Might be out until mid-April
Baldelli missed all of last season with a torn up knee that required reconstructive surgery, then he was about to return and torn up his elbow and needed reconstructive surgery on that. This spring he finally was able to play the field again, but came down with a sore hammy.
You get the sense it might never end, but that kind of thinking caused many to miss out on Jose Reyes last season. Consider taking the injury risk flier on Baldelli for decent rewards, particularly in Rotisserie leagues.
Risk: Medium
Reward: Medium
CF Jeremy Reed, 25, Mariners
Wrist -- Out until at least May
Reed's head-first style caught up to him in spring training. This is actually a blessing in disguise for those who haven't already had him on their team at this point. He was a risky sophomore pick when healthy after his bust-worthy rookie season.
The injury makes it a slam dunk to ignore him for the most part on Draft Day.
Now, those of you still high on his potential can get him far below market value to stash away on DL for a month at least. There is still the possibility that wrist won't heal properly, too -- there are just so many tiny bones in an area where blood supply can be limited -- so make him nothing more than a flier at this point.
Risk: High
Reward: Medium
2B Rickie Weeks, 23, Brewers
Wrist, oblique -- Expect to be ready for the season
It was a nagging wrist that caused Weeks' big splash to get lower grades from the judges late last season. It was corrected this offseason and shouldn't be a problem, although Weeks did come down with a minor oblique issue in spring.
You have to start to wonder if he's going to be that type of player who always has something you have to think about, but as we said above, that will only make him more affordable to the rest of us less skittish about every bump and bruise.
Consider him an outstanding breakout candidate as a speed-and-power second baseman. He's an eventual 30-30 candidate, even if he only sees 20-20 in his near future in 2006.
Risk: Low
Reward: High
RH SP Wade Miller, 29, Cubs
Shoulder surgery -- Out until at least May
This is one the Cubs won't take the blame for. Miller's shoulder hasn't been right since 2003, so the Cubs figure they might try hitting the trifecta on bringing shoulders back. After all, they have gained a lot of experience in that regard.
Even if Miller is able to prove capable of getting big league hitters out, he will be nothing more than a back-end starter in Fantasy leagues. He just wasn't that dominant at his best.
Risk: High
Reward: Low
RH RP Dustin Hermanson, 33, White Sox
Back -- Out until at least early April
Age is most definitely not on Hermanson's side in his bout with back problems. There were rumblings he might even consider retirement. Even with health, the White Sox are going to try Bobby Jenks, who has been wild and terrible this spring, and then Neal Cotts in the closer's role. That leaves Hermanson fairly worthless in Fantasy leagues at this point.
Risk: High
Reward: Low
RH SP Paul Wilson, 33, Reds
Shoulder surgery -- Out until at least mid-April
Wilson missed most of last season with a torn labrum and had season-ending surgery. He has gotten off to a late start this spring, but the Reds seem like they're anticipating a return once he gets 30 innings under his belt.
The question will be where he fits into the Reds rotation and the answer is no better than the back end, which is where he belongs in NL-only leagues when he comes back officially.
Risk: Medium
Reward: Low
RH CL Mike MacDougal, 29, Royals
Arm surgery -- Out until at least May
MacDougal's sudden misfortune was Ambiorix Burgos' gain. Burgos, a hard-throwing youngster, will open the season as the Royals' closer and might not give it back if he soars.
MacDougal is not expected to have any long term effects from his arm problem, but you will have to wait and see on the closer's job before considering him viable in most Fantasy leagues. Even if he does close again some time in the first half, it's still for the Royals.
Risk: Medium
Reward: Low
SS Cesar Izturis, 26, Dodgers
Tommy John elbow surgery -- Out until at least June
Izturis is making strides in his recovery and could beat his return, but the Dodgers are not in a hurry for the drama that will ensue. Izturis is a player without a position -- even if he gets healthy and returns to being a Gold Glove caliber shortstop, he will have to sit behind free-agent signee Rafael Furcal and future Hall of Famer Jeff Kent, who wants no part of a move to first.
The Dodgers will not move an unwilling Kent to first to move an equally shaky Nomar Garciaparra to left. Not for a player of Izturis' limited potential.
Izturis' best bet is to get healthy and prove worthy as trade bait.
Risk: Low
Reward: Low
2B Kaz Matsui, 30, Mets
Knee -- Out until at least mid-April
Matsui was already on shaky ground this spring, so his knee injury didn't do much to help his non-existent Fantasy status. At least he has a scapegoat now.
Matsui won't be anything near what his contract pays him to be, but he can be a low-risk flier late in NL-only leagues. If he ever stays on the field, his 2004 numbers are attainable.
Risk: Low
Reward: Medium
RH SP Carl Pavano, 30, Yankees
Shoulder -- Out until at least late April
The Yankees played it cautious with Pavano this spring, shutting him down quickly when his back flared up. It was his shoulder that led to his awful 2005 and caused the worry going into this season, though.
He will need to build up his arm strength in a normal spring training timetable, which is about a month and 30 innings. The Yankees are fine with that and hope Pavano can revert to something close to his Marlins form.
You have to love the offensive production he will get if he can string some quality starts together before the All-Star break. Because of the vast failures of Yankees' pitchers of late, Pavano is going really cheaply on Draft Day, making the cost/risk as low as it as ever been -- even if the injury questions are still high.
Risk: Low
Reward: High
RH SP Chien-Ming Wang, 26, Yankees
Shoulder, knee -- Out until late March
Wang is unfairly characterized as an injury risk, if he even is in your league. A year ago was his first full season of trying to push his innings against top competition, so a little dead arm could have been expected. The Yankees were trying to get too much out of him too soon.
This spring he all but has a rotation spot locked up and should be ready for the fourth game of the season. Remember how good he was at his best last year and the fact that the Yankees' lineup is much better now with the renaissance of Jason Giambi and the addition of Johnny Damon.
Risk: Low
Reward: Medium
RH RP Jaret Wright, 30, Yankees
Shoulder, back -- Hoping to be ready for the season
Even if Wright was able to prove healthy this spring, his awful 2005 has him downgraded right out of most mixed-league drafts. Like Pavano, Wright has developed a back problem to go with his shoulder woes.
He looks like he will open the season in the Yankees' bullpen with nothing but spot starts, barring more injury or a surprising recovery of his high-90s heat. That's not back yet, and Wright won't be completely either in Fantasy.
Risk: Low
Reward: Medium
OF Larry Bigbie, 28, Cardinals
Foot -- Out until at least late April
Bigbie has been that talented player ready to prove worthy of an everyday job. His broken foot is his latest reason to think otherwise. Consider him nothing more than an NL-only outfielder this season and don't worry if you miss out on him. It's not like he has proven productive when healthy.
Risk: Low
Reward: Medium
3B David Bell, 33, Phillies
Back -- Out until at least early April
Bell didn't need to add injury to the insulting production he has provided on the hot corner for the Phillies, but he has. Just in case you were looking for him to rebound, he saved you from that by missing most of spring and possibly opening the season on the DL with a stiff back. Alex S. Gonzalez and Abraham Nunez can do all Bell can do, probably more.
Risk: High
Reward: Low
RH RP Octavio Dotel, 32, Yankees
Elbow -- Out until at least June
The Yankees made an underrated move, getting Dotel under contract coming off reconstructive elbow surgery. Dotel is hoping to return to the Yankees by the All-Star break and should be able to get big outs in the second half. The problem with him won't be his health as much as his limited role. Mariano Rivera hasn't allowed many spare save opportunities for middle relievers in recent years.
Risk: Low
Reward: Low
LH SP Randy Wolf, 29, Phillies
Tommy John elbow surgery -- Out until at least mid-July
Wolf is hoping to be able to pitch in the second half. He was once a solid lefty and would get ample run support if he returned to the Phillies' rotation. It's likely he returns in long relief at first -- especially if the Phillies are in contention and have developed another option to make starts in his stead.
Stash him away only if you have ample DL spots, but expect to have to cut him if he does return slowly in relief.
Risk: Low
Reward: Medium
RH SP Kip Wells, 28, Pirates
Shoulder -- Out until at least mid-July
Wells had the same issue that ruined Aaron Cook's development with the Rockies -- a strange circulatory problem in his arm/shoulder that was causing blood clots and required surgery. They were able to correct the problem via surgery and have moved his return date up until midseason.
Consider him an NL-only flier if he winds up in the Pirates rotation in the second half. Stash him away now only if you have ample room on your DL.
Risk: Low
Reward: Medium
1B Jeff Bagwell, 37, Astros
Shoulder -- Might be out for the season
Bagwell gave it a try this spring, but was unable to get comfortable with his chronic shoulder problem. His age makes it likely he's all but done. Consider him out for the year.
Lance Berkman will play first, along with Mike Lamb, while Preston Wilson, Willy Taveras and Jason Lane will be the Astros' outfield. Chris Burke will be in the mix to get at-bats, spelling those outfielders and Craig Biggio at second and now Adam Everett at short.
Risk: High
Reward: None
Also, the Nationals have already lost Brian Lawrence (shoulder), Luis Ayala (elbow) and T.J. Tucker (elbow) for the season. Ryan Drese (shoulder) is hoping for a first half return, but will need to build up arm strength and then prove worthy of a rotation spot before you consider him in anything but the deepest of NL-only leagues.
You can e-mail your potential free agent questions to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Injury risks in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal responses or answers to all questions.
</TD><TD> </TD><TD width=160>Fantasy Columns
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=hrcolor0 height=1><SPACER type="block" height="1"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=cnewstxt2><A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/9343538">2006 Tout Wars Recap
? Buying low on injury risks can work out
<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/9333888">Fantasy Faceoff: Sorry about Soriano?
<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/9326020">Fantasy Power Players: Mid-spring edition
<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/9325924">Ballpark effects: Home Sweet Home
<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/9319310">Book Review: Fantasyland
<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/9312568">Fantasy Faceoff: Mixed, AL or NL?
<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/9292452">Draft Preview: NL-only Head-to-Head
<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/9292356">Draft Preview: AL-only Head-to-Head
<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/9310566">Less is Mora? No deal can mean a great deal
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League News
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<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/1142454280">GO GO KOREA
<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/1141848772">Shadow of a crook
<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/1141319452">THE WINTER MEETINGS
<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/1141254539">BEEN THERE DONE THAT
<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/1141249638">Barry Comes out
<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/1141248243">THE WINTER MEETINGS
<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/1141233241">Barry Comes out
<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/1140668148">BOOM IS REALLY HAPPY
<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/1140572473">CONGRATS TO THE WIZZ
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