CAA Basketball Plays

WMtribe17

EOG Dedicated
#1
Figured I would start a thread with my CAA Bball Plays

January 4

Towson +20.5 vs. Drexel - I know Towson is winless, but they have improved greatly over the past few games and played a talented (imo) UVA team well, only losing by 7. They have a good big man in Nwankwo that should be able to grab some boards and somewhat counter the size of Drexel. Also, I do not think Drexel is good enough to be 20 point favorites in just about any game they play (They have only beaten 2 teams by 20+ points on the year, with one of them being the worst RPI-rated team in Binghamton). I would also lean towards the under 116, as both of these teams struggle to score.

Although I can't bet for or against my team, it is probably wise to play JMU -4.5 vs. W&M. W&M is downright terrible this year and I honestly don't see them winning another game. W&Ms only win against a d-1 team was a 1 point win against Liberty on 2 "fortunate" misses from the FT line by a Liberty player with 0 seconds left in the game. The only thing that scares me is that W&M has somehow found a way to either win or cover against JMU in the past, even though JMU has had the better team. Also, W&M has won 12 of their last 17 against JMU in the series. Still, I think W&M is lacking the talent to compete with just about any CAA team.
 

WMtribe17

EOG Dedicated
#2
Re: CAA Basketball Plays

I retract my statement about Towson looking good over the past few games. They may not score a single point in the 2nd half with how bad they look on offense...
 

WMtribe17

EOG Dedicated
#4
Re: CAA Basketball Plays

2-1 Much better day yesterday

January 8

VCU Drexel UNDER 120.5

Only 1 game in CAA play today, but it should be a good one in Drexel vs. VCU. Drexel has the D to keep them in any game in the CAA, and if they can hold VCU to a poor shooting night from 3 point range, they should be able to get the win. VCU struggled on offense their last game (Georgia St.) when they faced a team with a good defense, so I think VCU continues their struggles shooting the ball tonight. Also, I still think Drexel has not found an identity on offense and at times just look lost on offense.
 

WMtribe17

EOG Dedicated
#5
Re: CAA Basketball Plays

2-2 -0.2 Units
Unnecessary fouls and FTs in the last few seconds of the VCU Drexel game cost me the under...

January 11

NE ML vs. Hofstra (+145). IMO, the better team is the underdog in this one. Hofstra is pretty much a 2 person team in Moore & Lester, so if NE can contain 1 of them, they should win this game. NE has played a lot of true road games (10 out of 14 already) and have played well on the road in many of them, including a win over St. Johns where they thoroughly outplayed them (I know St. Johns is in a down year, but still a good win IMO).

NE Hofstra OVER 131
 

WMtribe17

EOG Dedicated
#7
Re: CAA Basketball Plays

Good analysis. I am guessing not too much of a home court advantage. Any chance 6-10 Crowder will return tonight for Pride?
I think Crowder left Hofstra a couple weeks ago for "personal reasons", which definitely hurt as they are lacking in size. But yeah, I doubt Hofstra has much of a crowd tonight for the game (not sure if they are still on break for classes or not) since they haven't played well this year.
 

WMtribe17

EOG Dedicated
#9
Re: CAA Basketball Plays

3-3 +0.15 units

Surprised how close the NE Hofstra game got to the over, considering that NE didn't score until 6 minutes into the first half.

January 12

Mason ML vs. Drexel (+160)
I think this is a bad matchup for Drexel. Mason has size to matchup with Drexel and better guard play that Drexel. Mason seems to have found their way on offense after the slow start to the season and are handling the ball much better. Mason has looked really well in CAA play so far, with wins @ODU and vs GA St. Drexel is always a tough matchup because of their stout defense, but I think Mason pulls it out.

Mason vs. Drexel UNDER 121

I have been having some tough breaks on the O/U of late, so hopefully I am due for a fortunate break. Both teams play good defense and have size to counter each others big men. Drexel has played good defense in the CAA so far, and just held a VCU team who likes to push the tempo and is probably one of the best offensive teams in the CAA to 58 points in their last game.
 
#10
Re: CAA Basketball Plays

Great call yesterday, Northeastern ML. Like your Mason pick. Cornelius seems to have given them a spark, kinda like adding a .330 hitter to the lineup at midseason!
 

WMtribe17

EOG Dedicated
#11
Re: CAA Basketball Plays

Great call yesterday, Northeastern ML. Like your Mason pick. Cornelius seems to have given them a spark, kinda like adding a .330 hitter to the lineup at midseason!
Ya, them getting Cornelius back was big, but I don't think he has played that well since coming back, which is surprising because I thought he was their best shooter last year from the perimeter. Pearson has been causing havoc for defenses and Morrison is starting to establish himself on offense and the glass. Should be a good battle between Pearson and Givens (arguably the 2 best big men in the CAA) and between McCoy and Morrison.

Drexel better rebound better than they did against VCU though if they want to have any chance of winning vs Mason. There was no excuse for VCU getting 13 O-boards in their last game.
 

WMtribe17

EOG Dedicated
#12
Re: CAA Basketball Plays

4-4 +0.15 Units

Wasn't able to watch the Mason Drexel game, but it seems that Drexel was able to control the boards against Mason. Surprised to see that the guards of Drexel played so well vs Mason, even with Fouch having a quiet game. If Drexel can keep this kind of play up on the road (especially if their guards can keep playing well and take double teams off of Givens), I have to think that Drexel will be the team to beat in the CAA tourney.
 

WMtribe17

EOG Dedicated
#13
Re: CAA Basketball Plays

January 14
ODU -9 vs. Hofstra - ODU's size should cause havoc for Hofstra
Delaware +8.5 vs. VCU -
Shocked VCU is a 8.5 point favorite on the road to a underrated Delaware team who plays well at home. VCU played 2 days ago against JMU, so I expect them to come out a bit tired (especially because they like to press and run an uptempo type game) on short rest vs Delaware. Last time VCU played on 2 days rest, they were only able to score 53 points at home vs Ga St. and shot the ball from 3 pretty poorly (with the exception of Troy Daniels)
Delaware ML vs VCU (+340)
Mason -5 vs. JMU (2 units) -
Mason lost for me last time, but I will keep fading JMU and bet any team to cover against them.

In a side note, I congratulate Towson on losing to W&M at home by ~20, and have probably secured themselves another 0-16 season (0-17 after the CAA tourney) in the CAA and a winless season for the year
 

WMtribe17

EOG Dedicated
#17
Re: CAA Basketball Plays

January 14


Adding: Georgia St. -10 vs. Towson 2H - Ga St. has been good on defense (granted you dont need to be good) against Towson. Only reason Towson is in double digits is because they have shot well from the FT line.
 

WMtribe17

EOG Dedicated
#20
Re: CAA Basketball Plays

Good Lord, Mason should be ashamed they almost blew the cover... That game just shows me that it has not been a good day for me... Congrats to Mason though for completing the uncommon feat of attempting more FTs in a game than field goals

Nice stat line for the game: 89 combined FT attempts and 63 combined fouls
 

WMtribe17

EOG Dedicated
#21
Re: CAA Basketball Plays

5-8 -2.15 units

January 18

Drexel -4 vs. Hofstra - Drexel has been on fire of late, so I will play them against a struggling Hofstra team
UNCW -3 vs. JMU - Just keep fading JMU...
GA St. vs. NE UNDER 119 - NE has surprising played well on defense in the CAA, and Ga St. has one of the best D's in the CAA (them or Drexel). I see a slow tempo game with both teams struggling to score.

Lets hope today is better than last weekend
 

WMtribe17

EOG Dedicated
#22
Re: CAA Basketball Plays

I am happy with 2/3. Fortunate that Ga St. NE went under and lucky Drexel got a dunk to go up 6 with a few seconds left to go 2-1. UNCW with a very disappointing performance at home vs. JMU unfortunately.

7-9 -1.15 units
 

WMtribe17

EOG Dedicated
#23
Re: CAA Basketball Plays

January 21

ODU +7.5 vs. VCU (2 units) -
VCU just played an OT game 2 days ago vs W&M and play an ODU team that plays D well and defends the 3-pointer well. VCU shot poorly from 3-point range last time, so hopefully there legs will be tired and struggle with the 3 ball again today.

UNCW vs. W&M UNDER 135 - W&M likes to play a slow tempo game and I especially expect them to keep it slow having come off the OT loss on Thursday and having the same schedule as VCU (5 games in 10 days), while the rest of the CAA teams have 5 games in 11 days. I expect slower tempos for the next 2-3 games for CAA teams because of the number of games that will be played in 10 days, which should result in more unders.
 

WMtribe17

EOG Dedicated
#24
Re: CAA Basketball Plays

It's amazing how a team can be so good on the boards and defensively, yet be so terrible on offense and at handling the ball. ODU can't even convert open dunks and layups on offense...
 

WMtribe17

EOG Dedicated
#26
Re: CAA Basketball Plays

2-0 Monday, 10-10 overall, +0.65 units

January 25

Drexel Ga St. UNDER 115 (2 units) - Battle of what I believe are the 2 best defenses in the CAA. Points should be hard to come by.

ODU -4 vs. UNCW

Mason -4 vs. Hofstra
 
#27
Re: CAA Basketball Plays

2-0 Monday, 10-10 overall, +0.65 units

January 25

Drexel Ga St. UNDER 115 (2 units) - Battle of what I believe are the 2 best defenses in the CAA. Points should be hard to come by.

ODU -4 vs. UNCW

Mason -4 vs. Hofstra
3 wins by a point each. Nice job on the sweep!!
 

WMtribe17

EOG Dedicated
#28
Re: CAA Basketball Plays

3 wins by a point each. Nice job on the sweep!!
Thanks! :houra

Yeah, I didn't deserve the Mason cover. Then again, the Drexel Ga St. score should not have been that high (like 25 points in the last 7 minutes with neither team even caring about playing D). But hey, a win is a win and I will take it happily :cheers
 

WMtribe17

EOG Dedicated
#31
Re: CAA Basketball Plays

February 1

Drexel -4 vs. NE - Drexel has been on a roll in the past month and it seems that their guards play better each passing game. Keep playing Drexel while they are on fire.

​Drexel NE OVER 117.5
 

WMtribe17

EOG Dedicated
#34
Re: CAA Basketball Plays

17-13, +5.35 units

February 4

Delaware +4.5 vs. JMU [-105] (2 units) -
JMU is a very inconsistent team who tends to play worse against weaker teams. They have struggled at home in conference play and are playing a Delaware team who just earned a victory against Mason.
Delaware ML vs JMU [+175]
GA St. vs Hofstra UNDER 125.5 -
Hofstra has been keeping games low (under 120 or close to it) the past couple of weeks and are playing a GA St. team who plays a good defense and are prone to long scoring droughts during games.
ODU vs Mason OVER 124.5 - Mason's defense has played poorly in many of the games I have watched them play and ODU (although I am hesitant to say) has looked good on offense the past couple of games.
Drexel -16.5 vs Towson - As long as Drexel continues to cover for me, I will continue to bet them. Last time these teams met, Towson was only able to score a pathetic 27 points against Drexel. Towson played there one "good" game of the year when they beat UNCW.
 

WMtribe17

EOG Dedicated
#36
Re: CAA Basketball Plays

February 8

Drexel -6.5 vs JMU (2 units) - JMU has been awful the entire year

Drexel JMU OVER 128 (2 units) -
Besides the WM game, JMU has been terrible defensively and have struggled to keep teams below 80 points (inlcuding an ODU team who was lucky to get 50 against Mason...)

NE +9 vs. Ga. St.
- Ga. St hasn't been the same team as earlier in the year and NE usually plays in close games. NE also beat Ga. St. at home a few weeks earlier.
 

WMtribe17

EOG Dedicated
#38
Re: CAA Basketball Plays

23-17, +9.6 units

February 14

Delaware +4 vs. Hofstra (2 units)

Delaware ML vs. Hofstra (+160)

VCU Mason OVER 132.5

 

WMtribe17

EOG Dedicated
#40
Re: CAA Basketball Plays

February 17

VCU -5.5 vs. Northern Iowa (2 units) - I see VCU controlling the tempo in this game, resulting in turnovers by Northern Iowa and transition points for VCU. Northern Iowa hasn't played well on the road and VCU is a tough place to play. VCU also needs this victory if they want to keep any chances of an at-large berth alive.
 
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