Can you beat horses with a 10% rebate on win bets?
- Thread starter BigDaddy
- Start date
Re: Can you beat horses with a 10% rebate on win bets?
10% on win bets or 10% on exotic wagers?
10% on win bets or 10% on exotic wagers?
BigDaddy
EOG Master
Re: Can you beat horses with a 10% rebate on win bets?
win bets but lets add in exotics as well
win bets but lets add in exotics as well
Re: Can you beat horses with a 10% rebate on win bets?
Got it.
Just spotted Mr. Wonderful's contribution in your other thread, BigD.
Got it.
Just spotted Mr. Wonderful's contribution in your other thread, BigD.
Mr Wonderful
EOG Veteran
Re: Can you beat horses with a 10% rebate on win bets?
I get 3% on WPS and can hold my own, 10% on win bets is a gift.
I get 3% on WPS and can hold my own, 10% on win bets is a gift.
Mr Wonderful
EOG Veteran
Re: Can you beat horses with a 10% rebate on win bets?
Amwager has a promotion going on where you get 10% on win & hookups with 500.00 cap.
Amwager has a promotion going on where you get 10% on win & hookups with 500.00 cap.
Viejo Dinosaur
EOG Master
Re: Can you beat horses with a 10% rebate on win bets?
I remember the 11 per cent rebates at the Boardwalk Hotel for nags....and free food buffet everyday.....you would have loved it Big Daddy...
I remember the 11 per cent rebates at the Boardwalk Hotel for nags....and free food buffet everyday.....you would have loved it Big Daddy...
BigDaddy
EOG Master
Mr Wonderful
EOG Veteran
Re: Can you beat horses with a 10% rebate on win bets?
Cookie fast asleep in the front row with who knows how much money in his pockets.
Cookie fast asleep in the front row with who knows how much money in his pockets.
miggytoddbest
EOG Dedicated
Re: Can you beat horses with a 10% rebate on win bets?
If some people say they can i wont call them liars but the takeout makes it hard for me to make the math work. Unless you are the most disciplined player that ONLY finds and plays those occasional "promotional" takeout rates we play because of the thrill of hitting those occassional tickets that help forget the others.
Gotta just play for the thrill not to pay a bill
If some people say they can i wont call them liars but the takeout makes it hard for me to make the math work. Unless you are the most disciplined player that ONLY finds and plays those occasional "promotional" takeout rates we play because of the thrill of hitting those occassional tickets that help forget the others.
Gotta just play for the thrill not to pay a bill
Re: Can you beat horses with a 10% rebate on win bets?
I curse the takeout after every losing bet I make in the race book.
I curse the takeout after every losing bet I make in the race book.
fifty cint
EOG Dedicated
Re: Can you beat horses with a 10% rebate on win bets?
Who gives a 10% on WPS?
Who gives a 10% on WPS?
rainbow
EOG Master
Re: Can you beat horses with a 10% rebate on win bets?
They didn't mess with the West coast house Q's.
fifty cint
EOG Dedicated
Re: Can you beat horses with a 10% rebate on win bets?
I remember hearing about that.I think from Dink???
I remember hearing about that.I think from Dink???
rainbow
EOG Master
alldaycapper
EOG Veteran
Re: Can you beat horses with a 10% rebate on win bets?
I curse the jockeys more than the takeout. People at GVR don't even sit close to me anymore in fear I may go postal.
I curse the jockeys more than the takeout. People at GVR don't even sit close to me anymore in fear I may go postal.
BigDaddy
EOG Master
Re: Can you beat horses with a 10% rebate on win bets?
the question is can you beat them getting a 10% rebate on win bets only
yes i would love a 10% rebate on show bets
the question is can you beat them getting a 10% rebate on win bets only
yes i would love a 10% rebate on show bets
ThatNegroJ
Banned
Re: Can you beat horses with a 10% rebate on win bets?
What exactly is a "serious" track?
Aqueduct is a "serious" track, right? But yet... there are often quarter miles run in close to 26 seconds because no jockey wants to take a lead.
So in essence, are the NYRA tracks any better then Thistledown or Mahoning?
You bet on tracks that you have a read on.. a personal edge on.. one that you think you can beat.
It's like the same bs went people say to only bet on major conferences in NCAAB... Its such a bad argument.
What exactly is a "serious" track?
Aqueduct is a "serious" track, right? But yet... there are often quarter miles run in close to 26 seconds because no jockey wants to take a lead.
So in essence, are the NYRA tracks any better then Thistledown or Mahoning?
You bet on tracks that you have a read on.. a personal edge on.. one that you think you can beat.
It's like the same bs went people say to only bet on major conferences in NCAAB... Its such a bad argument.
rdalert447
EOG Dedicated
Re: Can you beat horses with a 10% rebate on win bets?
I agree, J. Jockeys throttling horses in NY is painful to watch. It's like an epidemic. I noticed the same thing on Gulf turf this winter where jocks would take back early speed types, giving away their only advantage. Closing in Gulf turf routes was very very difficult all winter, and if an amateur like me sees it, how don't the trainers and jockeys??
I agree, J. Jockeys throttling horses in NY is painful to watch. It's like an epidemic. I noticed the same thing on Gulf turf this winter where jocks would take back early speed types, giving away their only advantage. Closing in Gulf turf routes was very very difficult all winter, and if an amateur like me sees it, how don't the trainers and jockeys??
BigDaddy
EOG Master
Re: Can you beat horses with a 10% rebate on win bets?
Are you a winner betting sports?
How many lifetime winners betting sports do you think we have at EOG?
Are you a winner betting sports?
How many lifetime winners betting sports do you think we have at EOG?
BigDaddy
EOG Master
Re: Can you beat horses with a 10% rebate on win bets?
Only reason I asked is because I see this question asked ad nauseam on the forums, but rarely if ever see the question asked about other forms of sports wagering. I see the perpetual comment "horses can't be beat" by guys I have little doubt have no prayer beating sports.
Only reason I asked is because I see this question asked ad nauseam on the forums, but rarely if ever see the question asked about other forms of sports wagering. I see the perpetual comment "horses can't be beat" by guys I have little doubt have no prayer beating sports.
BigDaddy
EOG Master
Re: Can you beat horses with a 10% rebate on win bets?
There are only a small percentage who beat sports.
But horses is probably no one unless you include rebates. Some win with good rebates.
Aside from the approximately 15% takeout on WPS and 20% on exotics, there's the mystery of the ADWs. To win, you'd have to be able to make decent predictions on the price, which means predicting the hidden bets. This is my biggest issue with betting smaller tracks. The ADW money can comprise a high percentage of the final pools. I routinely see this in show pools, where there's 1k bet on a horse at post, and then 6k or more comes in from ADWs. I had one notable example recently where it threw everything out of whack (majority of show money from ADWs).
At least with bigger tracks you have a better idea of the price because a lot more is bet on track.
There are only a small percentage who beat sports.
But horses is probably no one unless you include rebates. Some win with good rebates.
Aside from the approximately 15% takeout on WPS and 20% on exotics, there's the mystery of the ADWs. To win, you'd have to be able to make decent predictions on the price, which means predicting the hidden bets. This is my biggest issue with betting smaller tracks. The ADW money can comprise a high percentage of the final pools. I routinely see this in show pools, where there's 1k bet on a horse at post, and then 6k or more comes in from ADWs. I had one notable example recently where it threw everything out of whack (majority of show money from ADWs).
At least with bigger tracks you have a better idea of the price because a lot more is bet on track.
The odds price that offers the best return on the dollar, according to DRF's Steve Klein, is 2/5.
You lose about 92 cents on the dollar with horses priced at odds of 2/5.
If memory serves, the biggest loser was a price range of 80/1 or greater.
Klein's 2005 book, which studied more than 200,000 races, is titled The Power of Early Speed.
You lose about 92 cents on the dollar with horses priced at odds of 2/5.
If memory serves, the biggest loser was a price range of 80/1 or greater.
Klein's 2005 book, which studied more than 200,000 races, is titled The Power of Early Speed.
blueline
EOG Master
5 thousand dollar win bet 10 percent rebate 2.40 payout
Wins Total Wagered Rebate Win Return Profit/Loss
10- $50,000 $5,000 $60,000 +$15,0000
9- $50,000 $5,000 $54,000 +$9,0000
8- $50,000 $5,000 $48,000 +$3,0000
7- $50,000 $5,000 $42,000 -$3,0000
6-$50,000 $5,000 $36,000 -$9,0000
5-$50,000 $5,000 $30,000 -$15,000
Wins Total Wagered Rebate Win Return Profit/Loss
10- $50,000 $5,000 $60,000 +$15,0000
9- $50,000 $5,000 $54,000 +$9,0000
8- $50,000 $5,000 $48,000 +$3,0000
7- $50,000 $5,000 $42,000 -$3,0000
6-$50,000 $5,000 $36,000 -$9,0000
5-$50,000 $5,000 $30,000 -$15,000
BenoitPaire2
EOG Veteran
I really believe the only way to win in horses is to play the big exotic wagers (pick 5.. and then jackpot wagers on mandatory day like pick 6s and super high 5s), and just play for the few big payoffs that will pay for the rest of the year. You have to have the ability to withstand many losing days, knowing that you will only have 30+ Days in a row without hitting anything substantial. And you have to have play with a rebate site that will give you 5%+ on pick 5s
The takeout, and sharp money, on the smaller exotics like exacta and trifecta, just make it unbeatable. Even when you are winning, it’s very rare that you are getting the true value you hope to. Pick 3s with 0.50 minimum lead to terrible value. And I can never justify betting a pick 4 if it’s the 2nd leg of pick 5: There’s almost no times where the payout on the first leg of the pick 5 will be more than the difference between the pick 4 and pick 5... what I mean: today at Belmont, in the late payouts: the pick 5 paid 12x what the pick 4 paid, despite the first leg of the pick 5 only being 7/2.
I cannot imagine anyone winning long term on win bets cause of the takeout and late, sharp money. Or maybe it’s just cause I am a huge loser on win bets.
Thank god for my bankroll that I usually manage big pick 5 hits at New York, and I do get nice rebates on these wagers
The takeout, and sharp money, on the smaller exotics like exacta and trifecta, just make it unbeatable. Even when you are winning, it’s very rare that you are getting the true value you hope to. Pick 3s with 0.50 minimum lead to terrible value. And I can never justify betting a pick 4 if it’s the 2nd leg of pick 5: There’s almost no times where the payout on the first leg of the pick 5 will be more than the difference between the pick 4 and pick 5... what I mean: today at Belmont, in the late payouts: the pick 5 paid 12x what the pick 4 paid, despite the first leg of the pick 5 only being 7/2.
I cannot imagine anyone winning long term on win bets cause of the takeout and late, sharp money. Or maybe it’s just cause I am a huge loser on win bets.
Thank god for my bankroll that I usually manage big pick 5 hits at New York, and I do get nice rebates on these wagers
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I tracked all my bets for 3 years and win bets were profitable (over 10% ROI) while the big multirace wagers were money losing ventures. This wasn't always the case, as back in the 90s, pic 3s were my favorite bet. One really needs a syndicate type bankroll to play pic sixes. As for the profitable win bets, there wasn't a single overwhelming favorite. And it wasn't a few monster longshots. I don't believe any were over 20/1. Physicality handicapping is where I believe the edge is now, and we have no idea how horses will look on the track for a race 30 minutes or an hour from now.
BenoitPaire can argue this all he wants, and maybe that works for him, but I know what works for me. I think there's a number of reasons for this. You don't (or one SHOULDN'T) bet on underlays/overbet horses when betting to win. But in betting the big multirace plays, one often has to include some underlaid horses. Lastly, I find the multirace wagers feed into "junkiesim"; a term a friend of mine in Chicago uses. That's when you rationalize betting when you really don't have much of an opinion. I never venture into the win pool without a strong opinion. Lastly, the psychological fallout from the near misses can be devastating. Losing a nose photo on an 8/1 win bet isn't good, but you can probably forget about within a day or so. Getting nosed out of a $6400 pic 4 at Keeneland stings for a while. I had great opinions on all 4 races and 3 worked out right and variance (rough trips) got in the way of the 4th race in the sequence. Then you look back and realize how often you had 3 out of 4, or 4 out of 5, it's not a coincidence. There's always a number of races that are chaotic and the best horses, or second best horse, doesn't win.
I also prefer exactas or tris over multirace wagers, even with a higher takeout. Why? Because some races you really "get". In any 3 race sequence, there's a reasonable chance you nail one race correctly. And there's a good chance, one race you are clueless on. I know I'm going to swing and miss badly on some races.
BenoitPaire can argue this all he wants, and maybe that works for him, but I know what works for me. I think there's a number of reasons for this. You don't (or one SHOULDN'T) bet on underlays/overbet horses when betting to win. But in betting the big multirace plays, one often has to include some underlaid horses. Lastly, I find the multirace wagers feed into "junkiesim"; a term a friend of mine in Chicago uses. That's when you rationalize betting when you really don't have much of an opinion. I never venture into the win pool without a strong opinion. Lastly, the psychological fallout from the near misses can be devastating. Losing a nose photo on an 8/1 win bet isn't good, but you can probably forget about within a day or so. Getting nosed out of a $6400 pic 4 at Keeneland stings for a while. I had great opinions on all 4 races and 3 worked out right and variance (rough trips) got in the way of the 4th race in the sequence. Then you look back and realize how often you had 3 out of 4, or 4 out of 5, it's not a coincidence. There's always a number of races that are chaotic and the best horses, or second best horse, doesn't win.
I also prefer exactas or tris over multirace wagers, even with a higher takeout. Why? Because some races you really "get". In any 3 race sequence, there's a reasonable chance you nail one race correctly. And there's a good chance, one race you are clueless on. I know I'm going to swing and miss badly on some races.
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When I think of junkieism, do you guys find yourselves betting games where you had no opinion? I have no problem passing those. But at the track, its easier to get lulled into action bets. "What the hell, I'll just play the pic 3 to kill some time as I don't like much for the next hour". Before simulcasting, it was harder to pass races up. Now, betting from home, if I don't like upcoming races, I'll just turn off TVG.