cassiusclay's 2011-2012 NCAA football thread
- Thread starter cassiusclay
- Start date
my yearly reminder:
I keep a notebook from year to year and reference it quite a bit, consolidate it over time. The number 1 most important factor in sports gambling, in my opinion, is learning from your mistakes and maturing as a sports gambler. You "mature" in a couple of different ways, the most important is to not make the same mistakes you made in prior years.
Tip #1: college football starts out of conference for the first part of the season which throws most gamblers for a loop. all your handicapping, stats, etc. becomes less valuable. You almost have to have a "bowl game" mentality when starting off the season and then switch to your normal handicapping style. i can't tell you how many times i have heard posters/gamblers brag about a game in the beginning of the season as a "lopsided match-up" only to have the underdog win outright or the 30 point favorite cover easily.
Tip #2: keep your wager unit size consistent through the season. The past two years i have turned a nice profit in college football by keeping my wagers the same size through the season. i am not a big believer in 2 star, 3 star etc. plays. Increasing wager sizes as your bank roll increases makes sense to me and keeps a losing streak at a minimum. Also, at no point try and double or triple up on a game to recoup losses, it's a long season with plenty of opportunities to win.
Tip #3: money management is the key, 10-15% of your bankroll is all i will wager in any given week, win or lose. if you are looking to make it the entire season this is key. Each week starts off a new "bankroll" whether up or down consistency will help you make it through the season. If your bankroll increases so will your wagers and vice versa.
Ever wonder why most locals have Monday as the last day of the week? If you are having a bad week just let the week end and start the following back at square one. Why over extend yourself with only one game (mnf) to choose from when the following week there are so many good spots to put yourself in.
Tip #4: keep record of all sports individually. Over time you might notice you are better at ncaaf than nfl or mlb, why not make money where your skills lay? Adjust your bankroll accordingly to each sport.
Tip #5: get the best number you can and buy 1/2's off of prime #'s. most will disagree with this but i have won my fair share of games by buying the half point and watching a game end on 3 or 7. imo it's much more important in nfl but still has paid dividends in college.
GL tonight Hulk..i think i may join that play here shortly, althought at 4 @ SIA. Can US play at SIA? i noticed a number of shops offering Michigan St at -33.5 to -34, and of course inflated SIA offering -35.5, so a hedge with a key number in there....
anyway gl...
[TABLE="class: ticket1"]
<TBODY>
[TD="class: tck1"]Selection 1:[/TD]
[TD="class: tck2"]NCAA, Football[/TD]
[TD="class: tck2"]Akron 3-September-2011 9:00 AM PST[/TD]
[TD="class: tck2"]Handicap +31.5 for Game -103[/TD]
[TD="class: tck4"][/TD]
[TD="colspan: 3"] [/TD]
[TD="class: tck1"]Selection 2:[/TD]
[TD="class: tck2"]NCAA, Football[/TD]
[TD="class: tck2"]UCLA 3-September-2011 12:30 PM PST[/TD]
[TD="class: tck2"]Handicap +3 for Game -114[/TD]
[TD="class: tck4"][/TD]
[TD="colspan: 3"] [/TD]
[TD="class: tck1"]Selection 3:[/TD]
[TD="class: tck2"]NCAA, Football[/TD]
[TD="class: tck2"]Western Michigan 3-September-2011 12:30 PM PST[/TD]
[TD="class: tck2"]Handicap +13.5 for Game -103[/TD]
[TD="class: tck4"][/TD]
[TD="colspan: 3"] [/TD]
[TD="class: tck1"]Selection 4:[/TD]
[TD="class: tck2"]NCAA, Football[/TD]
[TD="class: tck2"]Ball State 3-September-2011 4:00 PM PST[/TD]
[TD="class: tck2"]Handicap +5.5 for Game -108[/TD]
[TD="class: tck4"][/TD]
[TD="colspan: 3"] [/TD]
[TD="class: tck1"]Selection 5:[/TD]
[TD="class: tck2"]NCAA, Football[/TD]
[TD="class: tck2"]New Mexico State 3-September-2011 5:00 PM PST[/TD]
[TD="class: tck2"]Handicap +6.5 for Game -105[/TD]
[TD="class: tck4"][/TD]
[TD="colspan: 3"] [/TD]
[TD="class: tck1"]Selection 6:[/TD]
[TD="class: tck2"]NCAA, Football[/TD]
[TD="class: tck2"]LSU 3-September-2011 5:00 PM PST[/TD]
[TD="class: tck2"]Handicap +3.5 for Game -110[/TD]
[TD="class: tck4"][/TD]
[TD="colspan: 3"] [/TD]
[TD="class: tck1"]Selection 7:[/TD]
[TD="class: tck2"]NCAA, Football[/TD]
[TD="class: tck2"]Louisiana Tech 3-September-2011 7:00 PM PST[/TD]
[TD="class: tck2"]Handicap +12 for Game -105[/TD]
[TD="class: tck4"][/TD]
[TD="colspan: 3"] [/TD]
[TD="class: tck1"]Selection 8:[/TD]
[TD="class: tck2"]NCAA, Football[/TD]
[TD="class: tck2"]Arkansas State 3-September-2011 12:30 PM PST[/TD]
[TD="class: tck2"]Handicap +19.5 for Game -105[/TD]
[TD="class: tck4"][/TD]
[TD="colspan: 3"] [/TD]
[TD="class: tck1"]Selection 9:[/TD]
[TD="class: tck2"]NCAA, Football[/TD]
[TD="class: tck2"]Troy 3-September-2011 12:30 PM PST[/TD]
[TD="class: tck2"]Handicap +14.5 for Game -105[/TD]
[TD="class: tck4"][/TD]
</TBODY>[/TABLE]
CC, If you do well today, I will as well; I will leave it at that. Thanks so much for posting your plays, I am grateful.
BOL in the contest. It's funny, you and T-3 are two that I respect very much and you get paired in the first round. Tuck should have known better.