CBB: Is it better to cap the market rather than the game?

#2
Re: CBB: Is it better to cap the market rather than the game?

the game

when you cap the market you are allowing other gamblers thoughts to direct yours.
 
#3
Re: CBB: Is it better to cap the market rather than the game?

find where the market is inefficient and exploit those by capping both the game AND market itself

problem is that I think in the last few years it has become very difficult to get a real handle on the market itself
 
#4
Re: CBB: Is it better to cap the market rather than the game?

capping the market, you have no idea what is going into the market, yes, you have some general conceptual ideas of whats taking place, nevertheless, a gauge. i do firmly think the smartest money arrives late, last 1/2 hr., but that's because i never bet with less than that ( i am not that smart). I always have a side or total I like, then it's a matter of deciding what, if anything to do with it.
 
#5
Re: CBB: Is it better to cap the market rather than the game?

capping the market, you have no idea what is going into the market, yes, you have some general conceptual ideas of whats taking place, nevertheless, a gauge. i do firmly think the smartest money arrives late, last 1/2 hr., but that's because i never bet with less than that ( i am not that smart). I always have a side or total I like, then it's a matter of deciding what, if anything to do with it.
yes.... most people think that they can just gauge the "square" mindset

ie.

"its the cowboys they are a 'public' team....."
 
#6
Re: CBB: Is it better to cap the market rather than the game?

Both... can be 'good'

Sammy will bet Euro hockey, soccer & basketball without one clue about the teams and players... if there is a significant market move
 
#7
Re: CBB: Is it better to cap the market rather than the game?

You have to do both, otherwise you'll be suckered into every head fake of a line move.
 

Right Move

EOG Dedicated
#8
Re: CBB: Is it better to cap the market rather than the game?

Do one or the other, but mix the two and you have a mess. Takes a ton of experience to read the market perfectly, but some moves are so strong they probably are +ev even after some movement
 
#9
Re: CBB: Is it better to cap the market rather than the game?

Do one or the other, but mix the two and you have a mess. Takes a ton of experience to read the market perfectly, but some moves are so strong they probably are +ev even after some movement
If you cap your play and know what number you're looking for and then you also have a feel for which way the line is going to move, how do you have a mess? If anything, sometimes you know to wait because the line is going the opposite way of your play and you want to get a better number. You're capping both.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#10
Re: CBB: Is it better to cap the market rather than the game?

Merely 'capping the market and not studying the games is like going to the racetrack without a Racing Form and trying to pick winners from the toteboard.

Good luck with that exercise.
 

Right Move

EOG Dedicated
#11
Re: CBB: Is it better to cap the market rather than the game?

If you cap your play and know what number you're looking for and then you also have a feel for which way the line is going to move, how do you have a mess? If anything, sometimes you know to wait because the line is going the opposite way of your play and you want to get a better number. You're capping both.
Good luck with that. Only time I would suggest such a strategy is if the way you cap usually ends you on the opposite side of the steam. And most would question the method if that was the case. If you are capping on your numbers the only reason to wait is to see if any additional plays hits your number. Rarely would I think a player would be smart waiting to play because he is pretty sure the number will get better. Just isn't logical.
 
#15
Re: CBB: Is it better to cap the market rather than the game?

I have taken sides I hate, because I know line would move and I take other side twice as much.
 
#17
Re: CBB: Is it better to cap the market rather than the game?

Good luck with that. Only time I would suggest such a strategy is if the way you cap usually ends you on the opposite side of the steam. And most would question the method if that was the case. If you are capping on your numbers the only reason to wait is to see if any additional plays hits your number. Rarely would I think a player would be smart waiting to play because he is pretty sure the number will get better. Just isn't logical.
I don't agree. I believe you can wait and get a better number. There's a NBA total tomorrow for instance that I believe the market will be "wrong" about.
 
#18
Re: CBB: Is it better to cap the market rather than the game?

New to EOG, but not to the love of MLB, NFL, CFB, CBB, NBA wagering. As well as the crooked(depends where you own horses, I did in Michigan) horse wagering.

The best most reliable /profitable handicapping method is if you can put your mind into the mind of the book. When a public team on the opening line, of which there are a half a dozen in all sports is pick em, or less than what you would expect by your own methods, you just sit and wait til game day. If that line has not moved than the book got what they wanted, the square action on the public team and the smart action on the other side. I hammer that other side. Now if the opening line for that public team was pick and it has gone to that public team-3, book screwed up as both squares and sharps are on the same side so that public team not only has a huge perceived value but value on who they feel will more than likely cover by their own methods.

Being new I am having trouble finding out if there are contests to join as I am always looking for long term contest. You beat me over a large sample size than I may think you know what you are doing.

Look forward to talking with you guys and getting in some action together.

Miggy
 
#19
Re: CBB: Is it better to cap the market rather than the game?

I don't agree. I believe you can wait and get a better number. There's a NBA total tomorrow for instance that I believe the market will be "wrong" about.
that's really difficult...knowing that a line will move and lose...i've seen it in ncaa hoops but both anticipatingn a move that is going to lose is a high art form for sure
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#23
Re: CBB: Is it better to cap the market rather than the game?

New to EOG, but not to the love of MLB, NFL, CFB, CBB, NBA wagering. As well as the crooked(depends where you own horses, I did in Michigan) horse wagering.

The best most reliable /profitable handicapping method is if you can put your mind into the mind of the book. When a public team on the opening line, of which there are a half a dozen in all sports is pick em, or less than what you would expect by your own methods, you just sit and wait til game day. If that line has not moved than the book got what they wanted, the square action on the public team and the smart action on the other side. I hammer that other side. Now if the opening line for that public team was pick and it has gone to that public team-3, book screwed up as both squares and sharps are on the same side so that public team not only has a huge perceived value but value on who they feel will more than likely cover by their own methods.

Being new I am having trouble finding out if there are contests to join as I am always looking for long term contest. You beat me over a large sample size than I may think you know what you are doing.

Look forward to talking with you guys and getting in some action together.

Miggy
Welcome to EOG, Miggy.

Pull up a chair.

We need all the smart guys we can recruit.
 
#24
Re: CBB: Is it better to cap the market rather than the game?

When I start worrying about market, and give others people opiions repect, and I have, that is when I go from a 55 to a 47% capper. Trust your work, if you trust you are good.
 
#25
Re: CBB: Is it better to cap the market rather than the game?

BTW, 90% of my spelling errors is from a sticky keyboard. I beat most here in spelling bee.
 

macau

EOG Addicted
#27
Re: CBB: Is it better to cap the market rather than the game?

follow/chart the market for def -make sure you are on the same side as the moves....dont go against the warm money......
 
#28
Re: CBB: Is it better to cap the market rather than the game?

that's really difficult...knowing that a line will move and lose...i've seen it in ncaa hoops but both anticipatingn a move that is going to lose is a high art form for sure
Doesn't happen real often but you will see tonight the markets overreaction to Ty Lawson being out. I have that DEN/IND game at 202 with a healthy Lawson and 208 without him. They actually play faster without Lawson. By waiting I got down at 196.5 (an absolute steal).
 
#29
Re: CBB: Is it better to cap the market rather than the game?

that's really difficult...knowing that a line will move and lose...i've seen it in ncaa hoops but both anticipatingn a move that is going to lose is a high art form for sure
I know this isn't entirely on point, but didn't you once state you like to see market confirmation before making a bet?

If so, aren't you capping the market and the game?
 
#30
Re: CBB: Is it better to cap the market rather than the game?

The "screen" has busted more semi-sharps trying to figure out line movement than it has ever helped! Paralysis by analysis. Knowing who, why, an most importantly when are the key pieces to the puzzle. It's a tough game over time even for the elite.
 

Chickadee

EOG Senior Member
#31
Re: CBB: Is it better to cap the market rather than the game?

There's a reason books ban you for chasing steam. That being said all steam is not made equal which is really a roundabout way of saying all markets are not made equal. A line move through from -6.5 to -7.5 in NFL means much more than a 1 pt move on an NBA total for instance. I know it's sharps blasphemy to think you can beat WA lines by simply capping games but I personally have softened my stance on this over the years in the NBA at least.
 
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