Chasing steam/bad number question

[newport2]

Re: Chasing steam/bad number question

So how do you handle it when you like the dog at +4 which is everywhere at the moment and the game opened +4.5

It's a much different scenerio when you are comparing YOUR opinion vs following Billy or any other group. You are in much better control of your wits and bankroll.

 

[Ray Luca]

Re: Chasing steam/bad number question

Long term loser vs -110.

Here is that guys order tonight. All -110

NC Wilm +6
Marsh +4
RI +15
St Bone +4
Ark +1
N. Iowa +10
Jack State +5
S Car +7

All same amount. Bold is where he got best of it

Lets see...

 

[Ray Luca]

Re: Chasing steam/bad number question

Here is that guys order tonight. All -110

NC Wilm +6 L
Marsh +4 L
RI +15 L
St Bone +4 L
Ark +1 L
N. Iowa +10 L
Jack State +5 W
S Car +7 L

All same amount. Bold is where he got best of it

Lets see...

Think I broke him day 1

 

[Viejo Dinosaur]

Re: Chasing steam/bad number question

best statement yet


unless your just a middler/scalper type-then if you know its moving u could care less whose order it is-ur not gambling anyway

The only gambling being done is hoping that one of your outs pay....I agree with your post for sure Mr Smith...

 

[Viejo Dinosaur]

Re: Chasing steam/bad number question

This.


By the way VD, is it true Fiest used to come into Castawas and plays every NFL game for 10k before they opened up? After he got done betting they hung numbers for the public to bet. Your story about Chuck Sharpe is what made me think of this, couple guys that worked there would talk about it.

Can't really confirm it but I will tell you what I do know....guys who opened up the Vegas books during that time period made some bank accounts fatter for some of the sportsbook bosses...it was great getting numbers that the public never saw....

 

[Tyrone]

Re: Chasing steam/bad number question

Can't really confirm it but I will tell you what I do know....guys who opened up the Vegas books during that time period made some bank accounts fatter for some of the sportsbook bosses...it was great getting numbers that the public never saw....

Feist has never been a big gambler. Just a marketing guy. He did win the Hilton contest and parlayed that into a sucessfull tout business. He made most of his money back in the days when ONLY ATT had 900 numbers. Of the first 50 they had he literally owned 45 of them. He had the sex lines with Penthouse and Playboy as well as the scorephone on ESPN. Remember back in the early 80's when the only way to get scores was to call a 900 number at 50 cents a pop. Everytime you called that number Jim was smiling.

 

[Inkwell77]

Re: Chasing steam/bad number question

Good thread. A couple of very good posts.

One of the best points in this thread is the point about having your own numbers (at least in college bball, may be different in nfl as the numbers are kinda irrelevant as many people like wantitall have pointed out, if dog covers they win the game outright 85% of the time or whatever....). That has been an amazing revelation through my eyes.

Last year, I would just pick sides because it was too many or whatever and would incorporate trends and other info I found relevant but with a number on every game the board becomes much more manageable and it starts to make a lot more sense. If Vegas says -9 and my numbers say -8.3 there does not seem to be much of an edge there.
I would encourage everybody relatively new to this, like myself, to find a way to make your own lines on every game and then start developing your handicapping style using your own lines!

 

[Ray Luca]

Re: Chasing steam/bad number question

Thanks for bumping this. I just bookmarked it since its one of my favorite w excellent points made. And I'm gonna call that guy later LOL

 

[rainbow]

Re: Chasing steam/bad number question

Feist has never been a big gambler. Just a marketing guy. He did win the Hilton contest and parlayed that into a sucessfull tout business. He made most of his money back in the days when ONLY ATT had 900 numbers. Of the first 50 they had he literally owned 45 of them. He had the sex lines with Penthouse and Playboy as well as the scorephone on ESPN. Remember back in the early 80's when the only way to get scores was to call a 900 number at 50 cents a pop. Everytime you called that number Jim was smiling.

212-976-1212 and 212-976-1313 I still remember those days.

 

[newport2]

Re: Chasing steam/bad number question

212-976-1212 and 212-976-1313 I still remember those days.

How about in the 70s, when the only way to get scores was by calling the JK Sports Journal(California).

 

[Ray Luca]

Re: Chasing steam/bad number question

212-976-1212 and 212-976-1313 I still remember those days.

Thats was the old sports phone number. Prior to that it was 212-999-1313

 

[rainbow]

Re: Chasing steam/bad number question

How about in the 70s, when the only way to get scores was by calling the JK Sports Journal(California).

I also remember calling to get their lines to book with.

 

[rainbow]

Re: Chasing steam/bad number question

Thats was the old sports phone number. Prior to that it was 212-999-1313

Yep, and also they had a number that was 212-976-2525

 

[boatboatboat]

Re: Chasing steam/bad number question

[TABLE]

[TH="class: Ctitle, colspan: 7"] Results for Monday, January 7, 2013 thru Sunday, January 13, 2013: 87-63-3 [/TH]

[TH="class: Chead1, colspan: 7"] NBA - Saturday, January 12, 2013 [/TH]

[TH="class: Chead2"] Time of Play [/TH]
[TH="class: Chead2"] Game-time [/TH]
[TH="class: Chead2"] # [/TH]
[TH="class: Chead2"] Play on [/TH]
[TH="class: Chead2"] vs [/TH]
[TH="class: Chead2, align: right"] Line [/TH]
[TH="class: Chead2"] Grade [/TH]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 04:42:38pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 07:35pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 510 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Philadelphia

[/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Houston

[/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] +1-116 [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 02:57:14pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 07:05pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 505 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata, colspan: 2"]

Atlanta

/

Washington

Under [/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] 190 [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 11:45:25am [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 07:35pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 509 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata, colspan: 2"]

Houston

/

Philadelphia

Over [/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] 202 [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 11:24:07am [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 03:35pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 501 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata, colspan: 2"]

Orlando

/

LA Clippers

Over [/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] 198 [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 10:13:50am [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 10:05pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 515 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata, colspan: 2"]

Miami

/

Sacramento

Under [/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] 203 [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 10:12:47am [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 07:05pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 503 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata, colspan: 2"]

Charlotte

/

Indiana

Over [/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] 185? [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 10:09:58am [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 08:05pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 511 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata, colspan: 2"]

Phoenix

/

Chicago

Under [/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] 189 [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TH="class: Chead1, colspan: 7"] College Basketball - Saturday, January 12, 2013 [/TH]

[TH="class: Chead2"] Time of Play [/TH]
[TH="class: Chead2"] Game-time [/TH]
[TH="class: Chead2"] # [/TH]
[TH="class: Chead2"] Play on [/TH]
[TH="class: Chead2"] vs [/TH]
[TH="class: Chead2, align: right"] Line [/TH]
[TH="class: Chead2"] Grade [/TH]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 07:39:45pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 08:00pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 715 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata, colspan: 2"]

Tennessee Tech

/

SIU Edwardsville

Over [/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] 133 [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 07:24:43pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 08:00pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 643 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata, colspan: 2"]

Colorado State

/

San Diego State

Over [/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] 132 [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 07:11:56pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 08:00pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 647 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata, colspan: 2"]

Missouri

/

Mississippi

Over [/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] 154 [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 06:29:36pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 07:00pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 707 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata, colspan: 2"]

Georgia Southern

/

Wofford

Over [/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] 108? [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 05:08:10pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 10:30pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 726 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Portland State

[/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Northern Arizona

[/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] -6? [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 05:02:13pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 10:00pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 675 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

New Mexico State

[/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Idaho

[/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] +2?-105 [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 05:00:58pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 10:00pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 673 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Air Force

[/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

UNLV

[/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] +14 [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 04:59:21pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 09:00pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 665 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Marshall

[/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

UTEP

[/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] +7? [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 04:52:57pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 07:00pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 642 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Duquesne

[/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

St. Joseph's

[/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] +7? [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 02:55:48pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 05:00pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 697 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

IPFW

[/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

South Dakota State

[/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] +12-105 [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 02:44:27pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 06:30pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 628 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Tulsa

[/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Rice

[/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] -11 [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 02:26:48pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 04:00pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 591 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata, colspan: 2"]

Drexel

/

James Madison

Under [/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] 129? [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 02:23:40pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 06:00pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 620 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Bowling Green

[/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Eastern Michigan

[/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] -7 [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 02:16:27pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 04:00pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 597 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata, colspan: 2"]

Texas A&M

/

Kentucky

Over [/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] 126 [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 02:11:49pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 04:00pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 601 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata, colspan: 2"]

George Washington

/

Xavier

Over [/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] 120 [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 02:00:21pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 02:00pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 544 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Iowa State

[/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Texas

[/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] -7 [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 01:52:16pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 02:15pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 565 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata, colspan: 2"]

Illinois

/

Wisconsin

Over [/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] 126? [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 01:27:43pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 03:00pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 576 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Texas State

[/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Texas Arlington

[/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] +4? [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 01:26:09pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 08:00pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 718 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

South Dakota

[/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

UMKC

[/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] -7-105 [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 01:14:08pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 03:00pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 578 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

New Mexico

[/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Fresno State

[/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] -14? [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 01:01:27pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 02:00pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 548 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Dayton

[/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Butler

[/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] +1? [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 01:00:39pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 08:00pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 715 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Tennessee Tech

[/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

SIU Edwardsville

[/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] +1-114 [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 12:47:18pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 04:30pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 696 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Furman

[/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Davidson

[/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] +17? [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 12:47:04pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 04:30pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 693 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Elon

[/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Appalachian State

[/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] -1? [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 12:36:10pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 05:00pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 701 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Tennessee Martin

[/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Belmont

[/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] +26?-111 [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 12:26:27pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 07:00pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 632 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Texas-San Antonio

[/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Louisiana Tech

[/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] +9 [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 12:19:08pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 08:00pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 667 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata, colspan: 2"]

Arizona

/

Oregon State

Under [/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] 146 [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 12:17:29pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 02:00pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 549 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

George Mason

[/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

NC Wilmington

[/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] -6-105 [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 12:16:45pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 08:00pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 649 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Cincinnati

[/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Rutgers

[/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] -4? [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 12:14:59pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 04:00pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 600 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Texas Tech

[/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Kansas

[/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] +18 [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 12:10:05pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 02:00pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 543 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata, colspan: 2"]

Texas

/

Iowa State

Over [/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] 133 [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 12:04:24pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 08:00pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 654 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

So Illinois

[/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Indiana State

[/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] +2? [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 11:42:51am [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 04:00pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 593 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

VA Commonwealth

[/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

St. Bonaventure

[/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] -7-107 [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] P [/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 11:32:08am [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 06:00pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 621 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

USC

[/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Utah U

[/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] +4 [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 11:26:49am [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 02:00pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 557 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

UCLA

[/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Colorado

[/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] +4 [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 11:20:42am [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 04:00pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 582 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Dartmouth

[/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Harvard

[/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] +11? [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 11:18:14am [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 08:00pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 713 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

SE Missouri St

[/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Tennessee State

[/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] +6? [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 11:14:55am [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 04:00pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 598 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Kentucky

[/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Texas A&M

[/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] -14 [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 11:11:38am [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 10:00pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 677 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

San Diego

[/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Pepperdine

[/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] +1 [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 11:08:41am [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 10:00pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 671 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Portland

[/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Loyola Marymount

[/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] +7?-105 [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 11:05:44am [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 03:00pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 690 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

North Dakota

[/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Montana State

[/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] -3 [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 11:03:53am [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 12:00pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 530 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Clemson

[/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Virginia

[/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] pk-113 [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 11:03:00am [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 02:00pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 547 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata, colspan: 2"]

Butler

/

Dayton

Over [/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] 134 [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 11:02:40am [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 10:00pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 682 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

UC Davis

[/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Cal Santa Barbara

[/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] -3? [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 10:59:49am [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 02:00pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 556 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

La Salle

[/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Richmond

[/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] -8 [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 10:48:45am [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 06:00pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 613 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

TCU

[/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Baylor

[/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] +18 [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 10:46:53am [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 04:00pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 587 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

South Florida

[/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Louisville

[/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] +19-105 [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 10:44:12am [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 12:00pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 522 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Indiana

[/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Minnesota

[/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] -7-105 [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 10:43:58am [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 09:00pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 721 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Sacramento State

[/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Eastern Washington

[/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] +4? [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 10:41:02am [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 03:00pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 574 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

SMU

[/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Tulane

[/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] -1 [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 10:38:03am [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 01:45pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 540 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

West Virginia

[/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Kansas State

[/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] +1? [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 10:35:33am [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 06:30pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 703 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Montana

[/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Northern Colorado

[/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] -6 [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 10:29:59am [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 12:00pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 531 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata, colspan: 2"]

Duke

/

NC State

Under [/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] 148 [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 10:23:52am [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 11:00am [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 517 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata, colspan: 2"]

Georgetown

/

St. John's

Under [/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] 119? [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 09:50:47am [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 06:00pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 616 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Nevada

[/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Wyoming

[/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] pk [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 09:47:55am [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 11:00am [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 518 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

St. John's

[/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Georgetown

[/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] +1-106 [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 09:16:34am [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 12:00pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 528 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Towson State

[/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Northeastern

[/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] +1 [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 02:27:54am [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"] 01/12/13 04:30pm [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"] 670 [/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

Santa Clara

[/TD]
[TD="class: Ldata"]

BYU

[/TD]
[TD="class: Rdata"] pk [/TD]
[TD="class: Cdata"]

[/TD]

[/TABLE]

 

[boatboatboat]

Re: Chasing steam/bad number question

very small sample of "steam" plays this last week and the results.

 

[wantitall4moi]

Re: Chasing steam/bad number question

Not exactly. Here is where it gets tricky....

If you aren't originating your own numbers there is no way to tell what fair value is. For example...

BW's Fair Value number on a game is 3.5 and the line is 4.5. At +4.5 -110 he has a profitable play by roughly 1.8%. (+4.2% for the full +4 less the 2.38% vig) The follower comes in behind him at +4 -110. That person has a wager with a negative expectation as the 2.1% he gets for the push on the +4 won't outrun the 2.38% in vigorish.

But, if FV is 3.5 and the line opens 5 then chasing down the +4.5 isn't a bad thing. It's still a profitable bet, just not as good as the +5 bet. The only way to know FV though is to create your own number. You cant chase steam and take the worst of it bet after bet as you will be playing the same side at 1-3% the worst of it.

Edges are SOOOO small in today's market that giving away those %'s will turn winners into losers. We are not in the 80's or 90's anymore where a winning percentage of 55-56% was actually obtainable over a large sample size. The best of the best may hit 53-54% over a 10k sample in today's markets.

This is simply playing the number not the sides.

Thats why you guys dont get it.

That line is almost immaterial to who wins and loses both SU and ATS.

Suppose the game yesterday opened -9 and closed -7.5. What would the 'theoretical' loss of 'advantage' be if you took Balt at +7.5 instead of +9? Then tell me how it mattered?

There is a winner and a loser in 99% of the games played. With moves and shopping there arent very many pushes these days. But a push isnt a negative, but people like to make it out like it is.

People got away from picking actual teams so long ago I think they forgot how to do it.

Now it is all about who bet what, how much money is where, whose money is on what team, and why the line isnt reflecting any of it.

Like I said, if guys took the schedule pre season, marked every single game with a star on the team they liked to win, and simply bet those teams no matter what (assuming no major injuries) they would be much better off.

The problems with so much of this thinking is that it presumes the moves are 'correct'. meaning the times the line moves in that direction that team will win more often than not. Not the case. But I know people dont believe it even though I have shown it a dozen ways to Sunday.

There is only an advantage or a disadvantage in a game where you have the 'right' side to begin with. Sometimes there are no 'right' sides or circumstances arrive in the game that makes it that way. But that is the price of 'gambling'. The only gamble to me is if a side I like makes enough mistakes to make the line matter. I dont pick a team at +6 and hope they only lose by 5, I suspect they will win SU and if they dont then the points are just insurance, especially in a close game where they lose by a late FG or have a 4 point lead and give up a goofy TD.

Even with this past season where dogs were out of control the first third of the season SU winners covered 223 of 259 games. Thats 86%, and that is way above the average expectation which is somewhere around 81% for SU winners covering the spread. But that is the point, this years dogs were winning SU not 'covering'. So Books were posting a lot of 'bad' favorites. So had a guy just picked those teams (without knowing the points) he would have had a windfall year.

So all this 'originator' crap and chasing bullshit is meaningless. Pick a frigging team and bet it at the best number you can find. It doesnt get any simpler than that.

 

[Patrick McIrish]

Re: Chasing steam/bad number question

Edit - never mind. Almost forgot one of my 2013 resolutions.

 

[Bucky]

Re: Chasing steam/bad number question

The premise of the thread appears to be using line movement to make a bet selection. The bettor is depending on the skill level of the unknown originators. How can anybody but BW really know what his plan is?

What % of BW line movements at openers translate into false moves and manipulations? How many times in this scenario would the line open + 8 1/2 and the player gets a +8 - line moves as low as 7 1/2 and then at post time it gets pounded back and closes at 9??? A fair amount of the late moves do not have any value either because they are simply covering middle leads that manipulated line movement.

Unless, you can make your own point spread line and are good at it - followers will get slaughtered early and late.

Forget the point spread and get good at money lines. If you can beat baseball moneylines - you can beat basketball moneylines.

 

[rainbow]

Re: Chasing steam/bad number question

This is simply playing the number not the sides.

Thats why you guys dont get it.

That line is almost immaterial to who wins and loses both SU and ATS.

Suppose the game yesterday opened -9 and closed -7.5. What would the 'theoretical' loss of 'advantage' be if you took Balt at +7.5 instead of +9? Then tell me how it mattered?

There is a winner and a loser in 99% of the games played. With moves and shopping there arent very many pushes these days. But a push isnt a negative, but people like to make it out like it is.

People got away from picking actual teams so long ago I think they forgot how to do it.

Now it is all about who bet what, how much money is where, whose money is on what team, and why the line isnt reflecting any of it.

Like I said, if guys took the schedule pre season, marked every single game with a star on the team they liked to win, and simply bet those teams no matter what (assuming no major injuries) they would be much better off.

The problems with so much of this thinking is that it presumes the moves are 'correct'. meaning the times the line moves in that direction that team will win more often than not. Not the case. But I know people dont believe it even though I have shown it a dozen ways to Sunday.

There is only an advantage or a disadvantage in a game where you have the 'right' side to begin with. Sometimes there are no 'right' sides or circumstances arrive in the game that makes it that way. But that is the price of 'gambling'. The only gamble to me is if a side I like makes enough mistakes to make the line matter. I dont pick a team at +6 and hope they only lose by 5, I suspect they will win SU and if they dont then the points are just insurance, especially in a close game where they lose by a late FG or have a 4 point lead and give up a goofy TD.

Even with this past season where dogs were out of control the first third of the season SU winners covered 223 of 259 games. Thats 86%, and that is way above the average expectation which is somewhere around 81% for SU winners covering the spread. But that is the point, this years dogs were winning SU not 'covering'. So Books were posting a lot of 'bad' favorites. So had a guy just picked those teams (without knowing the points) he would have had a windfall year.

So all this 'originator' crap and chasing bullshit is meaningless. Pick a frigging team and bet it at the best number you can find. It doesnt get any simpler than that.

Lets get this straight with you right now. You saying if a college hoop game opens -4.5 and they steam it up to -6 and the best available number you can find is at -6 and your chances are equal to the guy that layed the -4.5? You will go DEAD BROKE end of story.

 

[wantitall4moi]

Re: Chasing steam/bad number question

Lets get this straight with you right now. You saying if a college hoop game opens -4.5 and they steam it up to -6 and the best available number you can find is at -6 and your chances are equal to the guy that layed the -4.5? You will go DEAD BROKE end of story.

you just proved the point, you assume the -6 side was the 'right' side. Who is to say taking +6 isnt better than even taking the original -4.5? Obviously laying -6 when -4.5 was available is going to have a negative aspect to it. But it doesnt mean laying -4.5 was the 'right' choice to begin with. What if a REALLY smart guy liked the +4.5 side all along, and let the wannabe be 'smart' guys move it for him? Then what?

Thats why so called 'originators' are another fairy tale because there is nothing anywhere that I see that say they are winning or moving games with enough of a positive result to go beyond simple randomness.

 

[rainbow]

Re: Chasing steam/bad number question

you just proved the point, you assume the -6 side was the 'right' side. Who is to say taking +6 isnt better than even taking the original -4.5? Obviously laying -6 when -4.5 was available is going to have a negative aspect to it. But it doesnt mean laying -4.5 was the 'right' choice to begin with. What if a REALLY smart guy liked the +4.5 side all along, and let the wannabe be 'smart' guys move it for him? Then what?
I just proved the point if you lay -4.5 and the line closes -6 longterm its impossible to lose, and if you follow and lay -6 you will be in the poor house, the rest is history.

 

[wantitall4moi]

Re: Chasing steam/bad number question

you just proved the point, you assume the -6 side was the 'right' side. Who is to say taking +6 isnt better than even taking the original -4.5? Obviously laying -6 when -4.5 was available is going to have a negative aspect to it. But it doesnt mean laying -4.5 was the 'right' choice to begin with. What if a REALLY smart guy liked the +4.5 side all along, and let the wannabe be 'smart' guys move it for him? Then what?
I just proved the point if you lay -4.5 and the line closes -6 longterm its impossible to lose, and if you follow and lay -6 you will be in the poor house, the rest is history.

youre wrong. Just because a game goes from 4.5 to 6 doesnt mean it wins. So how can you not lose long term?

I can see how many times a line that moved any number of points, won or lost either at the starter, the closer, or whatever the highest was.

There is ZERO correlation between moves and win probability. Meaning a game that moved on vig only same spread had as much chance of winning as a game that moved 2 points, and just as many big moves had the 'wrong' side win/cover as the side that took all the money. At least in regards to anything beyond random chance.

It would have to be more than 53% of the time to be even a consideration in my mind, and it isnt even close to that.