Clip Joint's NFLX (18-13 +14.2 units) - WARNING

WEEK #3 WARNING

I started a tracking thread and thought I would begin a new one as we get ready to head into Week #3. Week #3 has been the worst week for this system the last 2 years. ML dogs went 3-13 in Week #3 last year and 5-10 the year before. Each of those were the worst weeks for the entire pre season each of the last 2 years.

I play every moneyline dog in the preseason blindly without handicapping the games. This system has always built me a nice bankroll heading into the regular season.

You can get a better line and my actual units are slightly higher than this as I am just using the closing Don Best CRIS line for the tracking in these threads.

We have 2 more moneyline dogs this week before heading into the dreaded 3rd week, so let's cash:

ST. LOUIS +180
DALLAS +140
(Both lines are the current lines as of this post. I will wait until closer to game time to try and get a better line on both games. I always use the closing line at CRIS on Don Best for the tracking record)


All plays are for 1 unit
Last night: 7-3 +9.55 units
YTD: 18-13 +14.2 units

Cleveland +275 (Won) +2.75 units
Green Bay +250 (Lost) -1 unit
Jacksonville +140 (Won) +1.4 units
Miami +150 (Lost) -1 unit
Houston +160 (Won) +1.6 units
NY Giants +145 (Won) +1.45 units
Philadelphia +140 (Won) +1.4 units
Chicago +230 (Won) +2.3 units
Arizona +170 (Won) +1.7 units
San Francisco +275 (Lost) -1 unit
 
CLIPPER!!!!

Congrats to you with your net profits thus far in NFLX...

Although the sample size isn't large enough to make a hasty conclusion, your results thus far are PHENOMINAL...

I wished I had bet your plays yesterday...

Keep up the good work and it is GREATLY appreciated...bounce

I will try and pay you back with my ODU games baby!!!

THE SHRINK
 
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Thanks man...I will be eagerly awaiting your ODU plays this season as they have become legendary. We might have to work something out where I can get them by email before they hit these forums and you move the lines! cocktail


As for this system in the NFL pre season...I have actually been playing it for a quite a few years. 3 years ago I started playing EVERY game and not even capping the games at all.

Last year was the worst season mainly because of the 3-13 Week #3 but bounced back in the final week (as each pre season has done) with some big value on the moneyline dogs.

I think Week #3 will always be a bad week for this system for a couple reasons:

#1- The starters play more minutes and this is the most important game for teams. This is the one week everyone really plays to win before they turn it down a bit for the final week to prepare for the regular season.

#2- The dogs have won/covered for the first couple weeks of the pre season normally and the linesmakers make that adjustment for Week #3. The value is taken away from the dogs and shifts to the favorites. Couple that with the fact that the starters will be playing more in Week #3 and the favorites get a pretty big advantage.

Last year was the worst season since I have been playing this system so I was hopeful that this season would bounce back...and it has nicely.

Look for some great value in the final week of the pre season on this system as their should be several 6 point or higher favorites meaning some juicy dog moneylines. I don't expect another 7-3 week anytime soon (if ever...that is the most profitable week I can remember)...but a 7-9 or 8-8 final week would show some pretty nice profits.

cheers
 
CLIPPER knows his shit!!! cheers

Keep up the GOOD work and YES, I may even email you before I post my ODU selections...

I will also release them in our newsletter during Hoops, so if you haven't signed up, I suggest you go to the Home Page and do so...

The FIRST one will be coming out shortly...

THE SHRINK
 
Clip - Nice week so far, thank's for warning us all about Week 3, very logical explanation why the favorites are more prone to cover.

Shrink - Nice site you have, look forward to your opinions on any sports-related question or games.

General - Good to see you around again Devil Dog.



cocktail
 
nice work, clip joint. let's get em in bases today!!! will you be posting any plays you like sir?

Best Wishes...IDnono
 
Kelson Haldane said:
Nice pick last night, there was no way Dallas was going to lose and go 0-3

I wish I could take credit for playing it for handicapping reasons...but I would of had Dallas regardless as long as they were a dog. If Seattle was the dog, I would have been on them. LOL

As for the "due theory", never play a team just because you don't think they will go 0-3. Just my opinion...
 
IDENTITY said:
nice work, clip joint. let's get em in bases today!!! will you be posting any plays you like sir?

Best Wishes...IDnono

Thanks ID. Actually, I don't really post baseball plays much. I did it for about a week or so at TheRX but quit with a small profit as that can really be a grind posting and tracking your plays each day. My hat goes off to all posters that can do it.

Good luck with your plays. I hope you continue to track your football record win or lose. I think you will get a lot more respect by documenting your plays. That is a big step in the right direction.

cheers
 
clip joint - i have tracked my plays at times, and have posted a winning record. but as you say, it is very time consuming to track, and the only real reason to do it would be if i were going tout, which many posters end up doing. anyhoo, thanks for the well wishes. will be posting some baseball plays in a few.....

Best Wishes...IDnono
 
Ok ID... i call that bullshit.

Don't want to start a bash in Clips thread so i wont. But don't tell me it's time consuming to add up you wins/losses and money won lost. It's when you start losing it becomes "too time consuming"
 
That would be a VERY bad decision in my opinion. Bashers will be all over you if you quit tracking once your units diminish ID. There is a lot more respect for people that post their plays and records (regardless of wins/losses) than for posters that will follow you around and bash if you do start losing.
 

Jarbo

EOG Member
I think you would also be money ahead this year if you took all of the Overs as well. Not as much but up.
 
Jarbo said:
I think you would also be money ahead this year if you took all of the Overs as well. Not as much but up.

I haven't checked that out but I will take a look. Normally it is the opposite. UNDER's normally do well in the pre season.

The key to the moneyline dog system is the fact that you are never eating that -110. If you just played all dogs ATS, you would be up less than 5 units. You can't really gain that advantage with the over/unders by getting a "+" line on every game.

Good luck with that though if you are playing those OVERS.

cheers
 

Ppeter

EOG Enthusiast
Man, thats a cool system.

How does it work in week #4?

And have you ever considered modifying it to play on the favs in week #3?
 
Ppeter said:
Man, thats a cool system.

How does it work in week #4?

And have you ever considered modifying it to play on the favs in week #3?

I don't like to play moneyline favorites in the pre season but if I ever were to, it would only be in Week #3. There is just no reason to ever eat chalk in a game that is as unpredictable as pre season football. In my opinion, almost every game should open as a pick. I'll take + money on ANY team in the NFL in these situations.

Now week #3 is a little different as I have mentioned because this is basically a regular season game for 3 quarters. The starters basically are using this as a dress rehearsal for the regular season before basically getting next week off.

I am going to stick to the ML dogs again this year in week 3 just because I am up over $15k this season and I would kick myself for not pressing the winnings.

The average line this week is -175 taking the best line available on favorites. This means you would have to hit over 63% of the games just to break even. The pre season is still too unpredictable in my opinion to bank on hitting 63% straight up. I would much rather take my chances betting the average line of +160 where I can go 6-10 and lose less than half a unit. It could be more or less depending on which teams win/lose...but you could actually turn a nice profit going 6-10.
 
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