So Pete, just wanting to look at the numbers logically here. We are at about 1,000 deaths per day. When do you think it hits 3k? Why if NYC seems to be stabilizing? I just don't see it myself. To me the 200k deaths in the US looks like at earliest an end of the year number, yet everyone including Trump is telling people its going to happen without giving a timeline. When would you predict we'll see 200k deaths in the US?
Feels very strategic to me, scare people into taking the lockdown and social distancing seriously. If Trump said you know we'll have 200k dead by the end of next year people would just brush it off. To say 200k dead and act like it could happen by next week then people are scared shitless and might stay at home for the last 4 weeks of the month.
I have no idea how long the number of cases will rise.
But I think we can project numbers two weeks ahead
Since death's are a lagging indicator --- it takes while for "new cases" to reach the final stage.
Say there is a week of lag time.
On (last) Tuesday there were 24,742 new cases and 4576 critical ones and 748 deaths
Yesterday there 34,196 new cases, 8202 critical cases with like 1300 deaths.
For like the last week, new cases increased 10% compounding rate per day.
So my unofficial guess is 2K, by next Friday and 3K the one after that-- rate of increase is slowing down a bit
How it goes after that, I dont know