I believe Paul more
I can do without the backhanded character assassinations Crick.Here again is the point you don't get- we can take the word of his daughter's mom about what kind of father he is, or we can take the word of his pick selling tout partner.
Paul, distance yourself for a second and think who the world is more likely to find believable.
See you at Del Mar.
Last comment.Well chosen number because 8-points is the difference in the edge between a 55% capper and a 59% capper betting into -110 price points.
Quit while you are ahead, Bozo.
I must have missed that oneInteresting (funny) exchange between Dink & Donaghy on your FB page Paul....who would have guessed they knew each other.
I can do without the backhanded character assassinations Crick.
Let me put it bluntly. I was privy to this as it was it was unfolding and have had multiple conversations with him then and do now. I make a determination based on my gut, which almost always points me in the right direction.
You don't know his wife, you don't know the publisher and you don't know his current state of mind while you are relying on a journalist that clearly had an agenda.
Not suggesting to be in agreement with everything he has done since his release, but I do know that you are commenting from a position of ignorance on several, make the most fronts. That's not where you want to be .
I am not his partner by the way. We do a podcast together and that's it.
85% of any message is delivered via non verbal communication. I do not take what anybody tells me at face value. Figure that out.Yes, you believe what Donaghy tells you.
I understand the parable of the scorpion and the frog.
Groovin, these forums are your life and just looking at this stuff makes me think of long homework assignments back in 8th grade. I don't have time for this
Sportsbook.ag is a sponsor as I repeatedly stated. This was about grading as it relates to VI. Their lines vary slightly from time to time. I challenge you to examine all picks and tell me if any inflated or deflated lines made a difference in my record. They did not.
[TD="colspan: 2"]CRIS line at release
[/TD]
Inflation
[TD="align: right"]10-Jun[/TD]
GST/CLE un207
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]206[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.2%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]23-May[/TD]
TOR +6
[TD="align: right"]-105[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-115[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.3%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]21-May[/TD]
TOR +6.5
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-105[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.1%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]17-May[/TD]
TOR +11
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-105[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6-May[/TD]
ATL +3
[TD="align: right"]-105[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-105[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.9%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]29-Apr[/TD]
TOR +2.5
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.1%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13-Apr[/TD]
MIN -9
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-9[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13-Apr[/TD]
LAL +6.5
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-105[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]21-Mar[/TD]
PHX +2.5
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-115[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8-Feb[/TD]
POR/MEM ov198
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]197.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.0%[/TD]
On March 23rd, I personally played Portland -5.5, in two spots, and had it graded at 6.
In about 20% of the cases I get a worse line than what I post and about 10% of the time I get better as many locals take a position and/or always shade high/favorite.
What it boils down to is that you will never ever be satisfied as you raise the bar to perfection and way above what is reasonable for the average bettor or anybody even moderately above. You micromanage everything.
A few years ago I made the statement that you would 'find a pimple on J Lo's ass' if she were buck naked in front of you. I stand by that.
I don't fault you for being an obsessive compulsive as that's how your wired.
You always have the great alternative, this time Sharp Sports Betting. A few years ago it was Scott Kellen. How did that work out?
[TD="colspan: 2"]CRIS line at release
[/TD]
Inflation
[TD="align: right"]7-Feb[/TD]
DEN/CAR un22
[TD="align: right"]-120[/TD]
un22
[TD="align: right"]-115[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-1.0%
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]24-Jan[/TD]
ARI/CAR ov47.5
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
ov48
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.4%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]17-Jan[/TD]
DEN -7
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-105[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-1.1%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]16-Jan[/TD]
KC/NE un44
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]44[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]15-Jan[/TD]
CAR -1.5
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-1.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-115[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.1%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]15-Jan[/TD]
ARI -7
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-115[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.1%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10-Jan[/TD]
GB/WAS ov45.5
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]45.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9-Jan[/TD]
GB +1
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-115[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.1%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9-Jan[/TD]
CIN +3
[TD="align: right"]-120[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-120[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.0%[/TD]
I don't look at their baseball grading. Don't care.
Thanks. Appreciate the kind words.i think I missed that one too....unless it was the one where he wanted to friend me and i tried to politely pass... I do not know him but I certainly know some that do.....I like Paul...the funny thing about Paul is he admits he makes very little money as a tout and I have seen him bet at the track and he is a pretty large player...i also trust him with money and I don't say that about many
I think he touts to impress people...just my opinion but it's the only thing that makes sense...Also I thinks, despite what he says, he loves these threads....he could easily avoid them and he will never change anyone's mind.... different kind of guy but I do like him...for the record I do not follow him
Groovin, you will always paper someone into submission. I literally can't get past the first line or 2. Send me the crib notes. Just tell me how many games I 'stole' via Sportsbook.ag and how my record would have changed.You and I have roughly the same number of posts per the time we've been registered here. I'd be surprised if I've written more than 50 words a day to forums this year; most of my forum time is spent updating the list of celeb obituaries in an RTP thread. Meanwhile this thread is about a fraud tout who spends every night sweating his tiny baseball bets on Twitter and complaining about all his supposed bad beats, as if he's never won a game in extra innings or gotten lucky. You'd rather I spend my time selling -EV picks and spending all night sweating them? If you "don't have time for this," don't repeatedly defend the indefensible parts of the VI grading system.
This thread is about Dave Cokin's record, not yours. You responded to a thread about Dave to defend their grading system.
But on the topic of your picks, sportsbook.ag is a very square book and the lines vary a lot more than "slightly." A book can deal heavily shaded lines if they attract square clientele and can just stiff winners at will. Looking at your last 10 picks graded vs sb.ag lines, and using the SBR half point calculator to compare them to Bookmaker (I don't think too many people would dispute that Bookmaker has the highest limits of any US facing book), we get:
[TABLE="width: 448"]
[TD="colspan: 2"]CRIS line at release[/TD]
Inflation
[TD="align: right"]10-Jun[/TD]
GST/CLE un207
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]206[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.2%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]23-May[/TD]
TOR +6
[TD="align: right"]-105[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-115[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.3%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]21-May[/TD]
TOR +6.5
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-105[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.1%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]17-May[/TD]
TOR +11
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-105[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6-May[/TD]
ATL +3
[TD="align: right"]-105[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-105[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.9%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]29-Apr[/TD]
TOR +2.5
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.1%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13-Apr[/TD]
MIN -9
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-9[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13-Apr[/TD]
LAL +6.5
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-105[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]21-Mar[/TD]
PHX +2.5
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-115[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8-Feb[/TD]
POR/MEM ov198
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]197.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.0%[/TD]
[/TABLE]
That's an average inflation of 2.5%. That may seem like "slightly" to a layman, but 2% is a huge difference relative to sports betting edges. Your VI record normalized for -110 is only 1.17% above breakeven, and Dave's is lower.
VI's line feed has something like 35 independent line sources. At the time you released Portland, BetOnline was the only book on their odds feed with -5.5, most books had -6, and Golden Nugget, Cantor, Peppermill, Stations, Westgate, William Hill in Vegas all had -6.5, and Bovada and Pinny had -6.5 offshore, so -6 was clearly the consensus line. More -5.5s popped up later. If you got -5.5 at the time of release in two places, congrats, you have great outs, but they were not market representative.
This is an incredible defense. You advertise yourself as a professional bettor yet can't even get your own lines 20% of the time. That's an indictment of the VI grading system more than anything I could say.
You can't even get your own line 20% of the time with a professional's dedication to line shopping, and that's prior to any customers causing steam or anything, but I'm the one making invalid arguments. Fantastic.
It is incredibly simple to determine a market consensus line. Most touts don't do it because they don't win.
Kellen's grading is fine as well. I first found out about him via an SSB employee, actually. Kellen's no longer touting but he gives his picks for free. He had a bunch of props he gave out for the Super Bowl where a line history is hard to find and he specified they were unofficial, but here are his official playoff picks:
[TABLE="width: 448"]
[TD="colspan: 2"]CRIS line at release[/TD]
Inflation
[TD="align: right"]7-Feb[/TD]
DEN/CAR un22
[TD="align: right"]-120[/TD]
un22
[TD="align: right"]-115[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-1.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]24-Jan[/TD]
ARI/CAR ov47.5
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
ov48
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.4%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]17-Jan[/TD]
DEN -7
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-105[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-1.1%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]16-Jan[/TD]
KC/NE un44
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]44[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]15-Jan[/TD]
CAR -1.5
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-1.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-115[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.1%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]15-Jan[/TD]
ARI -7
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-115[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.1%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10-Jan[/TD]
GB/WAS ov45.5
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]45.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9-Jan[/TD]
GB +1
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-115[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.1%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9-Jan[/TD]
CIN +3
[TD="align: right"]-120[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-120[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.0%[/TD]
[/TABLE]
So an average inflation of only 0.3% compared to CRIS. As I'm sure I said, when I was a customer, when a game fell close to the number he polled his subscribers asking what line they got, and IMO was overly conservative a few times.
You are commenting in a thread about a guy who is primarily a baseball tout about VI's grading policy when you don't know or care about the policy. Makes perfect sense.
Gee - Breaking News: Some touts inflate their records! Bears shit in the woods. HRC is a lying scum, should be in prison! Timeshare sales guy's (formerly me) stretch the truth a bit, or a lot. Next? Groovin, take my friends pbovi's advice: calm the fuck down, Dude!
Thanks. Appreciate the kind words.
I do not love these threads. Exasperating and distracting but I am at times easily sucked in. As the masses pile on, I feel compelled to fend off the attacks along with the ignorant, thoughtless and oft times baseless comments. Tout stuff.
Last comment.
Either you're just in total denial or you're just plain stupid, or some combination thereof. Neither is good. People skills are lacking, for sure
Groovin, you will always paper someone into submission. I literally can't get past the first line or 2. Send me the crib notes. Just tell me how many games I 'stole' via Sportsbook.ag and how my record would have changed.
Thanks. Appreciate the kind words.
I do not love these threads. Exasperating and distracting but I am at times easily sucked in. As the masses pile on, I feel compelled to fend off the attacks along with the ignorant, thoughtless and oft times baseless comments. Tout stuff.
The money I make as a tout is all relative. All depends on who you ask. That said, having people win is the most important thing. I had my own site for 2 years and offered a full refund of $ if I did not hit greater than 52%.
I just took another peak at this. You are saying VI has 35 line feeds?You and I have roughly the same number of posts per the time we've been registered here. I'd be surprised if I've written more than 50 words a day to forums this year; most of my forum time is spent updating the list of celeb obituaries in an RTP thread. Meanwhile this thread is about a fraud tout who spends every night sweating his tiny baseball bets on Twitter and complaining about all his supposed bad beats, as if he's never won a game in extra innings or gotten lucky. You'd rather I spend my time selling -EV picks and spending all night sweating them? If you "don't have time for this," don't repeatedly defend the indefensible parts of the VI grading system.
This thread is about Dave Cokin's record, not yours. You responded to a thread about Dave to defend their grading system.
But on the topic of your picks, sportsbook.ag is a very square book and the lines vary a lot more than "slightly." A book can deal heavily shaded lines if they attract square clientele and can just stiff winners at will. Looking at your last 10 picks graded vs sb.ag lines, and using the SBR half point calculator to compare them to Bookmaker (I don't think too many people would dispute that Bookmaker has the highest limits of any US facing book), we get:
[TABLE="width: 448"]
[TD="colspan: 2"]CRIS line at release[/TD]
Inflation
[TD="align: right"]10-Jun[/TD]
GST/CLE un207
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]206[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.2%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]23-May[/TD]
TOR +6
[TD="align: right"]-105[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-115[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.3%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]21-May[/TD]
TOR +6.5
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-105[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.1%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]17-May[/TD]
TOR +11
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-105[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6-May[/TD]
ATL +3
[TD="align: right"]-105[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-105[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.9%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]29-Apr[/TD]
TOR +2.5
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]5.1%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13-Apr[/TD]
MIN -9
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-9[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]13-Apr[/TD]
LAL +6.5
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-105[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]21-Mar[/TD]
PHX +2.5
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-115[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]8-Feb[/TD]
POR/MEM ov198
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]197.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.0%[/TD]
[/TABLE]
That's an average inflation of 2.5%. That may seem like "slightly" to a layman, but 2% is a huge difference relative to sports betting edges. Your VI record normalized for -110 is only 1.17% above breakeven, and Dave's is lower.
VI's line feed has something like 35 independent line sources. At the time you released Portland, BetOnline was the only book on their odds feed with -5.5, most books had -6, and Golden Nugget, Cantor, Peppermill, Stations, Westgate, William Hill in Vegas all had -6.5, and Bovada and Pinny had -6.5 offshore, so -6 was clearly the consensus line. More -5.5s popped up later. If you got -5.5 at the time of release in two places, congrats, you have great outs, but they were not market representative.
This is an incredible defense. You advertise yourself as a professional bettor yet can't even get your own lines 20% of the time. That's an indictment of the VI grading system more than anything I could say.
You can't even get your own line 20% of the time with a professional's dedication to line shopping, and that's prior to any customers causing steam or anything, but I'm the one making invalid arguments. Fantastic.
It is incredibly simple to determine a market consensus line. Most touts don't do it because they don't win.
Kellen's grading is fine as well. I first found out about him via an SSB employee, actually. Kellen's no longer touting but he gives his picks for free. He had a bunch of props he gave out for the Super Bowl where a line history is hard to find and he specified they were unofficial, but here are his official playoff picks:
[TABLE="width: 448"]
[TD="colspan: 2"]CRIS line at release[/TD]
Inflation
[TD="align: right"]7-Feb[/TD]
DEN/CAR un22
[TD="align: right"]-120[/TD]
un22
[TD="align: right"]-115[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-1.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]24-Jan[/TD]
ARI/CAR ov47.5
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
ov48
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.4%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]17-Jan[/TD]
DEN -7
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-105[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-1.1%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]16-Jan[/TD]
KC/NE un44
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]44[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]15-Jan[/TD]
CAR -1.5
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-1.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-115[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.1%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]15-Jan[/TD]
ARI -7
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-7[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-115[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.1%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10-Jan[/TD]
GB/WAS ov45.5
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]45.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9-Jan[/TD]
GB +1
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-115[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.1%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]9-Jan[/TD]
CIN +3
[TD="align: right"]-120[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-120[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.0%[/TD]
[/TABLE]
So an average inflation of only 0.3% compared to CRIS. As I'm sure I said, when I was a customer, when a game fell close to the number he polled his subscribers asking what line they got, and IMO was overly conservative a few times.
You are commenting in a thread about a guy who is primarily a baseball tout about VI's grading policy when you don't know or care about the policy. Makes perfect sense.
I just took another peak at this. You are saying VI has 35 line feeds?
You are delirious. Not even close. How much would you like to wager?
So now, as a defense to my assertion that I got screwed on that Portland game, you have resorted to quoting Bovada, a book whose credibility you have undermined repeatedly. Now that's funny.
Groovin, you have just proven yourself to be completely full of shit. You have undermined your own credibility. Even VI dropped Bovada, at my suggestion by the way, and here you are, Groovinmahoovin, quoting Bovada.
Got to love that one.
There was no inflation on those games btw. The results were not affected. I did not personally opt to lay the additional juice, the software assigned it. Record inflation kicks in if the results were affected by way of the slight discrepancy in line, or do you feel that someone would buy down/up to achieve whatever line the saw the play put out at?
You were all over Kellen, and he then shit the bed. Admit it. Now you're resorting to small sample sizes to fend off criticism
Groovin, you will always paper someone into submission. I literally can't get past the first line or 2. Send me the crib notes. Just tell me how many games I 'stole' via Sportsbook.ag and how my record would have changed.
The vast majority of my posts were horses, most often the track, the horse and the race number.
[TD="align: right"]8-Feb[/TD]
POR/MEM ov198
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]197.5[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-110[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.0%[/TD]
Since you sniff the assholes of every tout, you should know I don't cap baseball. :lightbulb:At least no payout problems like the one one your site pimps shouldnt you be at home capping games for tomorrows sheep paula ,,,:lightbulb:
I just took another peak at this. You are saying VI has 35 line feeds?
You are delirious. Not even close. How much would you like to wager?
So now, as a defense to my assertion that I got screwed on that Portland game, you have resorted to quoting Bovada, a book whose credibility you have undermined repeatedly. Now that's funny.
Groovin, you have just proven yourself to be completely full of shit. You have undermined your own credibility. Even VI dropped Bovada, at my suggestion by the way, and here you are, Groovinmahoovin, quoting Bovada.
There was no inflation on those games btw. The results were not affected. I did not personally opt to lay the additional juice, the software assigned it. Record inflation kicks in if the results were affected by way of the slight discrepancy in line, or do you feel that someone would buy down/up to achieve whatever line the saw the play put out at?
You were all over Kellen, and he then shit the bed. Admit it.
Now you're resorting to small sample sizes to fend off criticism
Busy today. I interpreted your 35 line feed comment to suggest that cappers are graded based on the best of those lines which is not the case. Half or more of those are not included. Todays' assignment is below. No tout trolling. Book report due by tomorrow at 3They have 15 Vegas books and 21 offshores listed on their feed. A few of the offshores are sister books (5Dimes and Sportbet, CarbonSports and sportsbook.ag) and maybe a couple others.
http://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/offshore/line-movement/thunder-@-warriors.cfm/date/5-18-16
http://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/las-vegas/line-movement/thunder-@-warriors.cfm/date/5-18-16
Also, to save you the nitpick, I am well aware that Atlantis and Peppermill are in Reno, but VI lists them with "Vegas."
I "have resorted" to quoting every single book VI has on their feed. Yes the Bovada square line is absurd to put on a line feed considering it's essentially a one way line, but take that up with VI. If I arbitrarily ignored Bovada, I would be accused of bias. I don't consider BetOnline market reflective either, but I quoted every book they used.
They still have Bovada on their line feed. They may no longer use those Bovada lines in grading picks, but I have no idea which books they do or do not currently use, as that info is no accessible to we the unwashed members of the lowly public. I quoted every single book on the feed. 8 had -6.5, 1 had -5.5, all the others had -6, so -6 was clearly the widely available line. You arguing you got screwed because 1 book out of 36 on their odds feed, a very low limit recreational book, happened to have -5.5 is a real stretch.
To save you some nitpicking time, I have also said the SBR half point calculator has some values with which I disagree, however to avoid being accused of bias from using my own numbers, I had to use something publicly available and for these purposes it's close enough.
Again, the topic here is Dave Cokin, whose best results on VI are MLB, where a change in odds affects every single release, not your results oriented "it only matters if the point spread affects that particular game." If I look at 20 picks of an NBA sides record, and every single one is a half point better than the market, it's pretty safe to say the inflation is around 1.5-2%, as that's roughly the value of an NBA sides point divided by 2. It doesn't matter if none of the 20 picks happen to land on that number, the overall inflation will be 1.5-2% in the long run. If there's a small sample fluke and 3 of the 20 picks happen to land on that half point, it would be similarly inaccurate to say the overall record will be inflated by 15%.
This makes absolutely zero sense. How did he "shit the bed???" His grading is fine, I've never once said otherwise, nor has anyone offered proof otherwise that I've seen. If you're referring to the poor season he had selling picks a few years ago, 1) his plays were always graded vs fair lines 2) his abilities as a tout have nothing to do with fair grading 3) our previous convo about him was in the middle of that poor season when he'd already started 8-23, and since then, he's ahead a bit, as is his overall record, but that isn't germane to the discussion about grading. It doesn't matter if he's a coin flipper or the best in the world when the convo is the picks grading.
Most touts would hide that poor season, but on his page, it's right there, and the picks are graded vs real lines, unlike VI's closed casino lines, sportsbook.ag etc.
This does not even make sense. You're the one claiming the sportsbook.ag lines are fine because supposedly none of them mattered in your record over a small sample.
What is your line 2016 texas st vs 2015 texas st ? They were bad last yr
How about the fact that they also lost their best position and associate head coach 6 days ago when John Wiley stepped down due to personal/family problems? Do you buy that bullshit? Use your imagination to what probably happened with this guy and why he resigned. They did hire a solid OC from James Madison but their DC a hire from Gardner - Webb a low level school wasn't on anyone's radar that I heard of to move up. Could be a tough year, especially at the start for Texas State.
I really have no fight in the matter. I don't post much anymore but this thread is really out of control in a fascinating way.
Groovin may I ask how you became to loathe touts? Did you buy plays and got burned? I am sorry if you've explained why they bother so much so.
I think it's a lot of energy but I certainly don't think it's a bad use of time if you enjoy arguing, debating and are making headway in cleaning up the industry
The "media" coverage on the sports betting scene here in Las Vegas is an embarrassment.
Buy an ad in Gaming Today and you not only get ad space but also several puff pieces proclaiming your business is the best in town.
The editorial and advertising departments at Gaming Today are one in the same.
Too many publicists in this city and not enough hard-hitting journalists.
Paging Jeff Haney...
No offense Winky but this is far from informative. You have no idea what his record is or anything else other than Dave tips well. I doubt a lot of waitresses post here.
Reads like a suck-up to someone in town with a "name" that maybe you dine with occasionally.
BTW the only reason I mention this is because my first exposure to you (1999/2000ish) was you were known as the guy that exposed touts.
Not all your methods were intricate levels of deception but your report back to the forums was informative, detailed, and probably saved a lot of greenhorns back in the day.
Now? Not so much.
Just surprised you went from someone trying to save idiots from paying for picks to giving them reach-arounds on the forums.
Carry on.
Funny. I'd imagine the ratio that told Bovi or anyone else for that matter was 10-1 they said the same thing about you. Maybe more.I was at a Vegas sportsbook in a high-end casino back in 2005.
The manager had asked me what I was doing that night and I said I was taking Paul Bovi out to dinner.
The sportsbook manager told me to avoid him(Bovi) at all costs.
Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato
How much are you charging this year, Lee Sterling?How about the fact that they also lost their best position and associate head coach 6 days ago when John Wiley stepped down due to personal/family problems? Do you buy that bullshit? Use your imagination to what probably happened with this guy and why he resigned. They did hire a solid OC from James Madison but their DC a hire from Gardner - Webb a low level school wasn't on anyone's radar that I heard of to move up. Could be a tough year, especially at the start for Texas State.