REASON FOR PICK: 4* #342 ARKANSAS over ALABAMA
The markets are only seeing one side of the equation here, and it leaves a tremendous value opportunity – it is most rare that we ever find a team this good in this pointspread range at home. And also an underdog that brings the matchups to win the game outright, not just stay within the generous spread.
Yes, Alabama has looked dynamic so far, with Nick Saban arguably having more talent on hand now than the team that won the National Championship LY. But it is young and untested talent. There are only four SR starters, and just one on defense. That defense also has only one SR reserve, and 11 of the 22 on the two-seep are SO’s or FR, with nine of the 11 starters atop their position for the first time ever in an S.E.C. road game. Talented, yes. Ready for Ryan Mallett and Bobby Petrino’s playbook? No.
Mallett was just learning his way LY, yet threw for 3,627 yards and a 30-7 ratio of TD’s to INT’s against a difficult S.E.C. schedule. Now there are four returning starters in the OL, and the top five pass catchers are all back, which not only means the chemistry and confidence of having played together, but also the chance for Petrino to go deeper into one of the best offensive playbooks around, and one that can particularly challenge those young Alabama defenders. But it is not all about offense for the Razorbacks in this setting, and it is the other matchup that really pushes this one over the top.
Arkansas was a very young team when having to play at Alabama last September, and it showed in a 35-7 scoreboard demise. But take a closer look. The Razorbacks were never physically pushed around in that one, holding Mark Ingram to 51 yards on 17 rush attempts, and outside of a 52-yard burst for a TD by Trent Richardson, all other Crimson Tide running plays netted only 82 yards on 40 attempts. Then look at how Arkansas grew up following that defeat. The last three S.E.C. home games were routs over Auburn by 21, South Carolina by 17 and Mississippi State by 21. On the road they lost that 23-20 heart-breaker at Florida, and 33-30 in O.T. at L.S.U. in another bitter pill to swallow. The bottom line is that while still in a growing stage they showed that they could stand toe-to-toe with anyone in this league, not just with Mallett throwing deep to those talented receivers, but also in the trenches. And with the defense coming up with six sacks in lat week’s win at Georgia, there is plenty of confidence and moxie coming from that side of the ball. It would not be a shock at all if the outright upset occurred, and the generous spread being offered is a terrific cushion.
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REASON FOR PICK: 6* #326 N. C. STATE over BOSTON COLLEGE
We have a case of two programs clearly heading in opposite directions here, and doing it at a rate that the markets can not keep up with. That means time to fire away with what is not only the far superior team, but one that brings a major chip on their shoulder, after Tom O’Brien and the Wolfpack suffered a hideous 52-20 loss at Boston College LY, a true embarrassment for a coach that used to patrol the opposite sidelines on that very field. Not only are the directions polar opposites, but an honest case can be made that State goes near the top of the charts for most improved team in the nation, while the Eagles are on the way to a third straight year of a declining win total.
The markets are far too slow in downgrading Boston College, and here is a good way to showcase how far off the power rating is – the Eagles opened with four straight games at home, which can mask weaknesses, and also got a +2 advantage in their three lined home games. Yet despite that turnover advantage, they went 0-3 ATS, losing to the spread by a collective 34.5 points. That is awful. If you do a +2 over three games, and still fall nearly five full TD’s off of the pointspread, there is a disconnect between power rating and true ability. The Eagles are getting next to nothing out of the QB position, which is exacerbated by a rebuilt OL that is struggling to mesh, and as a result what should be their strength, the running of Montel Harris, is easily taken away by the opposition (he had 28 yards in 15 carries vs. what had been a soft Notre Dame rush defense on Saturday night). As such the entire offense bogs down, and in all three of those lined games their opponent recorded their best defensive game of the season. Now they take to the road for the first time, which magnifies all of the issues, and we do not see it as being any different than Frank Spaziani’s first season as head man at Chestnut Hill – the Eagles went 0-2 as A.C.C. road dogs, losing to the spread by 32.5 points in those games.
Meanwhile the markets are slow to adjust the Wolfpack in the opposite direction, and in reading between the lines we can see what has been missed. First we deal with some final scores that did not reflect the true dominance on the field (they led Central Florida 28-7 in the 4th quarter of a 28-21 win, and Cincinnati 23-7 in the fourth quarter of a 31-19 final). And while B. C. has been setting up teams to have their best defensive game of the season, in each of the last three State games their opponent has had their worst defensive game, with the Wolfpack rolling up 30 points and 491 yards vs. Cincinnati, 45 and 527 vs. Georgia Tech and 30 and 507 vs. Virginia Tech. And while they did not have the highest yardage game vs. Central Florida, they scored more points in that win than the Golden Knights allowed in their other two lined games combined. Get the point? With Russell Wilson being joined by talented young RB’s Mustafa Greene and Dean Haynes (that duo has already combined for 573 yards and six TD’s) there is a terrific run/pass balance, and the depth in the receiving corps is outstanding – nine different State players have caught a TD pass already,none of them being leading receiver Owen Spencer, who has 20 catches for 356 yards. Meanwhile the return to full health for NFL-bound LB Nate Irving (29 tackles in the last two games) has led the defensive resurgence. That defense is 4th in the nation in sacks per game, and can overwhelm that struggling Eagle OL/QB combination when they have to play from behind over the course of the afternoon.
There is a whole different atmosphere in Raleigh right now, with 58,083 in attendance on Saturday, when the State offense turned a true rarity against a Frank Beamer defense, producing at least 200 yards in each half of that bitter defeat (they led 30-28 with 1:27 remaining). That loss helps to keep this line low, while serving as a springboard for a team that has not played their best game yet, and can break it wide open vs. this fragile opponent (from Spaziani after his team’s humbling loss to Notre Dame - ”It’s sort of like back to square one, isn’t it?”).
The markets are only seeing one side of the equation here, and it leaves a tremendous value opportunity – it is most rare that we ever find a team this good in this pointspread range at home. And also an underdog that brings the matchups to win the game outright, not just stay within the generous spread.
Yes, Alabama has looked dynamic so far, with Nick Saban arguably having more talent on hand now than the team that won the National Championship LY. But it is young and untested talent. There are only four SR starters, and just one on defense. That defense also has only one SR reserve, and 11 of the 22 on the two-seep are SO’s or FR, with nine of the 11 starters atop their position for the first time ever in an S.E.C. road game. Talented, yes. Ready for Ryan Mallett and Bobby Petrino’s playbook? No.
Mallett was just learning his way LY, yet threw for 3,627 yards and a 30-7 ratio of TD’s to INT’s against a difficult S.E.C. schedule. Now there are four returning starters in the OL, and the top five pass catchers are all back, which not only means the chemistry and confidence of having played together, but also the chance for Petrino to go deeper into one of the best offensive playbooks around, and one that can particularly challenge those young Alabama defenders. But it is not all about offense for the Razorbacks in this setting, and it is the other matchup that really pushes this one over the top.
Arkansas was a very young team when having to play at Alabama last September, and it showed in a 35-7 scoreboard demise. But take a closer look. The Razorbacks were never physically pushed around in that one, holding Mark Ingram to 51 yards on 17 rush attempts, and outside of a 52-yard burst for a TD by Trent Richardson, all other Crimson Tide running plays netted only 82 yards on 40 attempts. Then look at how Arkansas grew up following that defeat. The last three S.E.C. home games were routs over Auburn by 21, South Carolina by 17 and Mississippi State by 21. On the road they lost that 23-20 heart-breaker at Florida, and 33-30 in O.T. at L.S.U. in another bitter pill to swallow. The bottom line is that while still in a growing stage they showed that they could stand toe-to-toe with anyone in this league, not just with Mallett throwing deep to those talented receivers, but also in the trenches. And with the defense coming up with six sacks in lat week’s win at Georgia, there is plenty of confidence and moxie coming from that side of the ball. It would not be a shock at all if the outright upset occurred, and the generous spread being offered is a terrific cushion.
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REASON FOR PICK: 6* #326 N. C. STATE over BOSTON COLLEGE
We have a case of two programs clearly heading in opposite directions here, and doing it at a rate that the markets can not keep up with. That means time to fire away with what is not only the far superior team, but one that brings a major chip on their shoulder, after Tom O’Brien and the Wolfpack suffered a hideous 52-20 loss at Boston College LY, a true embarrassment for a coach that used to patrol the opposite sidelines on that very field. Not only are the directions polar opposites, but an honest case can be made that State goes near the top of the charts for most improved team in the nation, while the Eagles are on the way to a third straight year of a declining win total.
The markets are far too slow in downgrading Boston College, and here is a good way to showcase how far off the power rating is – the Eagles opened with four straight games at home, which can mask weaknesses, and also got a +2 advantage in their three lined home games. Yet despite that turnover advantage, they went 0-3 ATS, losing to the spread by a collective 34.5 points. That is awful. If you do a +2 over three games, and still fall nearly five full TD’s off of the pointspread, there is a disconnect between power rating and true ability. The Eagles are getting next to nothing out of the QB position, which is exacerbated by a rebuilt OL that is struggling to mesh, and as a result what should be their strength, the running of Montel Harris, is easily taken away by the opposition (he had 28 yards in 15 carries vs. what had been a soft Notre Dame rush defense on Saturday night). As such the entire offense bogs down, and in all three of those lined games their opponent recorded their best defensive game of the season. Now they take to the road for the first time, which magnifies all of the issues, and we do not see it as being any different than Frank Spaziani’s first season as head man at Chestnut Hill – the Eagles went 0-2 as A.C.C. road dogs, losing to the spread by 32.5 points in those games.
Meanwhile the markets are slow to adjust the Wolfpack in the opposite direction, and in reading between the lines we can see what has been missed. First we deal with some final scores that did not reflect the true dominance on the field (they led Central Florida 28-7 in the 4th quarter of a 28-21 win, and Cincinnati 23-7 in the fourth quarter of a 31-19 final). And while B. C. has been setting up teams to have their best defensive game of the season, in each of the last three State games their opponent has had their worst defensive game, with the Wolfpack rolling up 30 points and 491 yards vs. Cincinnati, 45 and 527 vs. Georgia Tech and 30 and 507 vs. Virginia Tech. And while they did not have the highest yardage game vs. Central Florida, they scored more points in that win than the Golden Knights allowed in their other two lined games combined. Get the point? With Russell Wilson being joined by talented young RB’s Mustafa Greene and Dean Haynes (that duo has already combined for 573 yards and six TD’s) there is a terrific run/pass balance, and the depth in the receiving corps is outstanding – nine different State players have caught a TD pass already,none of them being leading receiver Owen Spencer, who has 20 catches for 356 yards. Meanwhile the return to full health for NFL-bound LB Nate Irving (29 tackles in the last two games) has led the defensive resurgence. That defense is 4th in the nation in sacks per game, and can overwhelm that struggling Eagle OL/QB combination when they have to play from behind over the course of the afternoon.
There is a whole different atmosphere in Raleigh right now, with 58,083 in attendance on Saturday, when the State offense turned a true rarity against a Frank Beamer defense, producing at least 200 yards in each half of that bitter defeat (they led 30-28 with 1:27 remaining). That loss helps to keep this line low, while serving as a springboard for a team that has not played their best game yet, and can break it wide open vs. this fragile opponent (from Spaziani after his team’s humbling loss to Notre Dame - ”It’s sort of like back to square one, isn’t it?”).
