dirty
EOG Master
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD>Daniel E. Dobish
Senior Fantasy Writer
Tell Daniel your opinion
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!-- T8156562 --><!-- Sesame Modified: 02/26/2005 04:08:43 --><!-- sversion: 4 $Updated: dand$ -->During the spring, we wipe the slate clean and get ready for the season where hope springs eternal for winning a Fantasy championship just as it does for the major league teams winning the World Series. Owners arrange their cheat sheets based on the expertise of their favorite publications and also on past experiences. A personal draft strategy reminds me of a Great White song from the 1980s -- Once Bitten, Twice Shy.
One also has to review a free agent's zip-code change and how his new ballpark affects his potential offensive numbers. The same holds true for stars of days past who might be in the twilight of their careers, going drafted on name recognition and numbers of previous years rather than what they still have left in the tank. We will review 12 potential busts, including some big name players who moved to new locations during the offseason.
The Baltimore Orioles made a big offseason move by adding Sammy Sosa to their lineup, as the players union has accepted changes to his contract which will bring the slugger back to the American League. Sosa is still a lethal power hitter, whether he swings his bat on the shores of Lake Michigan or Chesapeake Bay. However, his power numbers have tumbled gradually from a 64 home run effort in 2001 to a mere 35 last season. Fantasy owners are gambling that he will be able to turn around his decrease and cheat Father Time, but the fact remains the lovable Sosa has entered the final seasons of a wonderful career and he is no longer a No. 1 Fantasy outfielder in most formats.
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=150 align=left><TBODY><TR><TD width=150>
</TD><TD width=15> </TD></TR><TR><TD width=150>Jaret Wright capitalized on a breakout season in Atlanta with a big contract in New York. (Getty Images) </TD><TD width=15> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Another player who has seen his Fantasy stock tumble significantly due to injuries and offseason issues is Jason Giambi of the New York Yankees. The team has brought back veteran Tino Martinez, which might take a significant chunk of at-bats away from the once productive slugger. His power potential is now being heavily questioned and his average has dipped quite a bit since a career-high .342 in his final season in Oakland in 2001 that earned him the big payday. While he is still useful when filling out a Fantasy roster, he is no longer worth more than a middle-round pick in AL-only leagues.
The Seattle Mariners were certainly busy during the offseason, retooling their team for a possible American League West title and a championship run. For pitchers and slap hitters with a good eye at the plate such as Ichiro Suzuki, Safeco Field is a fantastic place to hang your hat. For power hitters, Safeco is a marginal home park at best. Adrian Beltre was one of the highly coveted players available during the winter months, parlaying a career-high 48 home runs into a big payoff. Remember, in the five seasons before 2004, he averaged a mere 18.4 home runs per season. His home run totals in pitcher-friendly Safeco should be in the 30 home run neighborhood, which is certainly not "bust-worthy," but will have Fantasy owners mumbling to themselves if they choose him over more favorable options like St. Louis' Scott Rolen or Texas' Hank Blalock.
Keeping it in the Pacific Northwest, Pokey Reese has been given yet another chance at a starting job. His addition in the Seattle infield next to Beltre will push promising youngster Jose Lopez to either the bench or Triple-A Tacoma to start the season. Does general manager Bill Bavasi understand Reese has failed to post an average over .225 in three of the past four seasons? Remembering yet another song from The Who, smart Fantasy owners Won't Get Fooled Again.
Instead of ponying up the money to retain Beltre's services, the Dodgers went out and filled a lot of other holes such as second base, right field and pitcher. They also threw a lot of cheese at Cesar Izturis, who posted a career-high .288 average and 25 stolen bases in 2004. While he had a fantastic breakout season, let other Fantasy owners overvalue him on Draft Day and grab an underrated player such as Pittsburgh's Jack Wilson, who can likely be scooped up in the later rounds. If Wilson played in Los Angeles and Izturis in Pittsburgh, it is likely their bank accounts would be switched as well.
When healthy, Detroit's Dmitri Young is an outstanding Fantasy option. The only problem is, Young has missed 20 or more games in three of the past four seasons. His propensity for injury makes him a risky pick. He is also limited to first base and designated hitter, making him attractive only in Rotisserie leagues with lax eligibility requirements. At a position where big-time hitters are a dime a dozen, Young looks best on another player's Fantasy roster than your own.
The Blue Jays threw a truckload of loonies at Corey Koskie to take over for Eric Hinske at the hot corner. Koskie's wonky back makes him a risky pick every year on Draft Day as he has averaged only 130 games over the past three seasons. Koskie has averaged 70 RBI over the past three seasons and should not be expected to all of a sudden explode playing in another dome in Toronto. Even in his best offensive season, he had 26 home runs and 103 RBI.
Hitters are not the only players susceptible to falling short of high expectations. Pitchers also have a lot of pressure to perform, especially those lured by big dollars to a place such as New York. Pedro Martinez was a huge addition for the Mets after helping the Red Sox secure their first World Series trophy since 1918. Questions surround his shoulder, although he posted a solid 16-9 record with 227 strikeouts. He did tie a career-high by allowing 26 home runs and he also posted a career-worst 3.90 ERA. In addition to his ailing shoulder, it is unclear how Martinez will adjust back to the National League. He has not pitched on the senior circuit since 1997 when he was a member of the Expos. While he is still a nice addition to a Fantasy staff, he is no longer the cornerstone. Do not expect his numbers to tail off significantly from what they were in Boston, but look for his win totals to drop slightly to 12-15.
The Yankees dipped into the free-agent pool and snared a couple of recent surprise pitchers to round out their starting rotation. Carl Pavano posted an outstanding 18-8 performance in 2004 after an equally stellar World Series in 2003 against his new employer. Previous to his breakout season of 2004, he was being given a second coat by the bust brush when he stumbled to a 39-50 record in his first six seasons with Montreal and Florida. The Yankees love to throw cash at players and signing Pavano is the equivalent of going all-in on pocket deuces in Texas Hold 'em. While it is a decent hand, you can certainly do much, much better. More often than not with a marginal hand, you are going to get beat. Look for Pavano to suffer in the pressure cooker called the Bronx.
The Yankees also landed Jaret Wright for their staff. Wright blossomed under the tutelage of pitching coach Leo Mazzone in Atlanta and should be equally pleased working with Mel Stottlemyre. However, Wright is a huge question mark returning to the American League where he was drummed to the tune of a 15-19 record with a 6.58 from 1999-2002. The bar is set at an all-time high for Wright, who will wilt under the immense pressure of pitching in Gotham. The City is not blue-collar Cleveland, sunny San Diego or even Hotlanta. Everything he does, any ball he throws or any early slump will be jumped on immediately. This is a train wreck waiting to happen and Fantasy owners are wise to let it occur on someone else's team.
The "Big Three" in Oakland is suddenly the "Big One." Barry Zito has pitched in tandem with Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder, leading the Athletics to the postseason over the past few years. The club decided to go another way and Zito will likely be headed out the door by the All-Star break or during the offseason as well. It is uncertain if he will be able to shoulder the load as a No. 1 starter, but with a lot of distractions around, it might be a good idea to shy away from the fragile Zito until he lands on his feet in a better situation.
Philadelphia got half a season from closer Billy Wagner in 2004 before his season was shortened by groin and shoulder injuries. Wagner has plenty left in the tank, but he has a lot of question marks surrounding his left rotator cuff. He has top-notch closer ability, but is not on the same level as several others of equal value. Why take the chance on Wagner when you can nab an injury-free pitcher such as Atlanta's Dan Kolb or Boston's Keith Foulke?
Senior Fantasy Writer
Tell Daniel your opinion
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!-- T8156562 --><!-- Sesame Modified: 02/26/2005 04:08:43 --><!-- sversion: 4 $Updated: dand$ -->During the spring, we wipe the slate clean and get ready for the season where hope springs eternal for winning a Fantasy championship just as it does for the major league teams winning the World Series. Owners arrange their cheat sheets based on the expertise of their favorite publications and also on past experiences. A personal draft strategy reminds me of a Great White song from the 1980s -- Once Bitten, Twice Shy.
One also has to review a free agent's zip-code change and how his new ballpark affects his potential offensive numbers. The same holds true for stars of days past who might be in the twilight of their careers, going drafted on name recognition and numbers of previous years rather than what they still have left in the tank. We will review 12 potential busts, including some big name players who moved to new locations during the offseason.
The Baltimore Orioles made a big offseason move by adding Sammy Sosa to their lineup, as the players union has accepted changes to his contract which will bring the slugger back to the American League. Sosa is still a lethal power hitter, whether he swings his bat on the shores of Lake Michigan or Chesapeake Bay. However, his power numbers have tumbled gradually from a 64 home run effort in 2001 to a mere 35 last season. Fantasy owners are gambling that he will be able to turn around his decrease and cheat Father Time, but the fact remains the lovable Sosa has entered the final seasons of a wonderful career and he is no longer a No. 1 Fantasy outfielder in most formats.
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=150 align=left><TBODY><TR><TD width=150>
</TD><TD width=15> </TD></TR><TR><TD width=150>Jaret Wright capitalized on a breakout season in Atlanta with a big contract in New York. (Getty Images) </TD><TD width=15> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Another player who has seen his Fantasy stock tumble significantly due to injuries and offseason issues is Jason Giambi of the New York Yankees. The team has brought back veteran Tino Martinez, which might take a significant chunk of at-bats away from the once productive slugger. His power potential is now being heavily questioned and his average has dipped quite a bit since a career-high .342 in his final season in Oakland in 2001 that earned him the big payday. While he is still useful when filling out a Fantasy roster, he is no longer worth more than a middle-round pick in AL-only leagues. The Seattle Mariners were certainly busy during the offseason, retooling their team for a possible American League West title and a championship run. For pitchers and slap hitters with a good eye at the plate such as Ichiro Suzuki, Safeco Field is a fantastic place to hang your hat. For power hitters, Safeco is a marginal home park at best. Adrian Beltre was one of the highly coveted players available during the winter months, parlaying a career-high 48 home runs into a big payoff. Remember, in the five seasons before 2004, he averaged a mere 18.4 home runs per season. His home run totals in pitcher-friendly Safeco should be in the 30 home run neighborhood, which is certainly not "bust-worthy," but will have Fantasy owners mumbling to themselves if they choose him over more favorable options like St. Louis' Scott Rolen or Texas' Hank Blalock.
Keeping it in the Pacific Northwest, Pokey Reese has been given yet another chance at a starting job. His addition in the Seattle infield next to Beltre will push promising youngster Jose Lopez to either the bench or Triple-A Tacoma to start the season. Does general manager Bill Bavasi understand Reese has failed to post an average over .225 in three of the past four seasons? Remembering yet another song from The Who, smart Fantasy owners Won't Get Fooled Again.
Instead of ponying up the money to retain Beltre's services, the Dodgers went out and filled a lot of other holes such as second base, right field and pitcher. They also threw a lot of cheese at Cesar Izturis, who posted a career-high .288 average and 25 stolen bases in 2004. While he had a fantastic breakout season, let other Fantasy owners overvalue him on Draft Day and grab an underrated player such as Pittsburgh's Jack Wilson, who can likely be scooped up in the later rounds. If Wilson played in Los Angeles and Izturis in Pittsburgh, it is likely their bank accounts would be switched as well.
When healthy, Detroit's Dmitri Young is an outstanding Fantasy option. The only problem is, Young has missed 20 or more games in three of the past four seasons. His propensity for injury makes him a risky pick. He is also limited to first base and designated hitter, making him attractive only in Rotisserie leagues with lax eligibility requirements. At a position where big-time hitters are a dime a dozen, Young looks best on another player's Fantasy roster than your own.
The Blue Jays threw a truckload of loonies at Corey Koskie to take over for Eric Hinske at the hot corner. Koskie's wonky back makes him a risky pick every year on Draft Day as he has averaged only 130 games over the past three seasons. Koskie has averaged 70 RBI over the past three seasons and should not be expected to all of a sudden explode playing in another dome in Toronto. Even in his best offensive season, he had 26 home runs and 103 RBI.
Hitters are not the only players susceptible to falling short of high expectations. Pitchers also have a lot of pressure to perform, especially those lured by big dollars to a place such as New York. Pedro Martinez was a huge addition for the Mets after helping the Red Sox secure their first World Series trophy since 1918. Questions surround his shoulder, although he posted a solid 16-9 record with 227 strikeouts. He did tie a career-high by allowing 26 home runs and he also posted a career-worst 3.90 ERA. In addition to his ailing shoulder, it is unclear how Martinez will adjust back to the National League. He has not pitched on the senior circuit since 1997 when he was a member of the Expos. While he is still a nice addition to a Fantasy staff, he is no longer the cornerstone. Do not expect his numbers to tail off significantly from what they were in Boston, but look for his win totals to drop slightly to 12-15.
The Yankees dipped into the free-agent pool and snared a couple of recent surprise pitchers to round out their starting rotation. Carl Pavano posted an outstanding 18-8 performance in 2004 after an equally stellar World Series in 2003 against his new employer. Previous to his breakout season of 2004, he was being given a second coat by the bust brush when he stumbled to a 39-50 record in his first six seasons with Montreal and Florida. The Yankees love to throw cash at players and signing Pavano is the equivalent of going all-in on pocket deuces in Texas Hold 'em. While it is a decent hand, you can certainly do much, much better. More often than not with a marginal hand, you are going to get beat. Look for Pavano to suffer in the pressure cooker called the Bronx.
The Yankees also landed Jaret Wright for their staff. Wright blossomed under the tutelage of pitching coach Leo Mazzone in Atlanta and should be equally pleased working with Mel Stottlemyre. However, Wright is a huge question mark returning to the American League where he was drummed to the tune of a 15-19 record with a 6.58 from 1999-2002. The bar is set at an all-time high for Wright, who will wilt under the immense pressure of pitching in Gotham. The City is not blue-collar Cleveland, sunny San Diego or even Hotlanta. Everything he does, any ball he throws or any early slump will be jumped on immediately. This is a train wreck waiting to happen and Fantasy owners are wise to let it occur on someone else's team.
The "Big Three" in Oakland is suddenly the "Big One." Barry Zito has pitched in tandem with Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder, leading the Athletics to the postseason over the past few years. The club decided to go another way and Zito will likely be headed out the door by the All-Star break or during the offseason as well. It is uncertain if he will be able to shoulder the load as a No. 1 starter, but with a lot of distractions around, it might be a good idea to shy away from the fragile Zito until he lands on his feet in a better situation.
Philadelphia got half a season from closer Billy Wagner in 2004 before his season was shortened by groin and shoulder injuries. Wagner has plenty left in the tank, but he has a lot of question marks surrounding his left rotator cuff. He has top-notch closer ability, but is not on the same level as several others of equal value. Why take the chance on Wagner when you can nab an injury-free pitcher such as Atlanta's Dan Kolb or Boston's Keith Foulke?