dirty
EOG Master
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD>Eric Mack
Senior Fantasy Writer
Tell Eric your opinion
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!-- T8141668 --><!-- Sesame Modified: 03/12/2005 11:21:11 --><!-- sversion: 24 $Updated: emack$ -->Jeepers creepers, where'd you get those sleepers?
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=150 align=left><TBODY><TR><TD width=150>
</TD><TD width=15> </TD></TR><TR><TD width=150>Injuries, a position battle and unrealized potential make Austin Kearns a terrific Draft Day sleeper. (Getty Images) </TD><TD width=15> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>You will want to hear that around, say, the All-Star break of this Fantasy Baseball season. Sure it's corny, but it sounds a lot better to the ear if you're hearing it and not the one saying it around your league's trading deadline.
In order to stockpile a team with big-time talent, you're going to need to find inefficiencies in the marketplace. That means, like a good stock-market investor, you will want to buy low and sell high at every possible turn.
Draft Day is the single most important time to do it. Every player is tagged going in with a certain amount of perceived value (a projected ranking or dollar value), but finding a player's real value is the trick.
The "sleeper" is the player whose real value far exceeds his perceived one, and there are five great places to find them: new starters, overlooked sophomores, age 27s, top prospects and the injury prone. We outline some of the undervalued players on Draft Day by these five categories.
New starters
<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="40%" align=right border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg0><TD class=bg0 align=middle colSpan=3>Top Sleepers </TD></TR><TR class=bg0><TD colSpan=3>New Starters </TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Rk </TD><TD>Player </TD><TD>Pos </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>1 </TD><TD>Chase Utley </TD><TD>2B </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>2 </TD><TD>Jason Lane </TD><TD>OF </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>3 </TD><TD>Brandon Inge </TD><TD>3B/C/OF </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>4 </TD><TD>Michael Cuddyer </TD><TD>3B/2B </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>5 </TD><TD>Dave Roberts </TD><TD>OF </TD></TR><TR class=bg0><TD colSpan=3>Sophomores </TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Rk </TD><TD>Player </TD><TD>Pos </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>1 </TD><TD>Joe Mauer </TD><TD>C </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>2 </TD><TD>Kaz Matsui </TD><TD>SS </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>3 </TD><TD>Alexis Rios </TD><TD>OF </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>4 </TD><TD>Adam LaRoche </TD><TD>1B </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>5 </TD><TD>Cliff Lee </TD><TD>SP </TD></TR><TR class=bg0><TD colSpan=3>Injury-prone </TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Rk </TD><TD>Player </TD><TD>Pos </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>1 </TD><TD>Austin Kearns </TD><TD>OF </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>2 </TD><TD>Trot Nixon </TD><TD>OF </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>3 </TD><TD>Laynce Nix </TD><TD>OF </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>4 </TD><TD>Jay Gibbons </TD><TD>OF </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>5 </TD><TD>Wade Miller </TD><TD>SP </TD></TR><TR class=bg0><TD colSpan=3>Age 27 </TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Rk </TD><TD>Player </TD><TD>Pos </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>1 </TD><TD>Vicente Padilla </TD><TD>SP </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>2 </TD><TD>Orlando Hudson </TD><TD>2B </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>3 </TD><TD>Cristian Guzman </TD><TD>SS </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>4 </TD><TD>Jason Frasor </TD><TD>RP </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>5 </TD><TD>Kip Wells </TD><TD>SP </TD></TR><TR class=bg0><TD colSpan=3>Prospects </TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Rk </TD><TD>Player </TD><TD>Pos </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>1 </TD><TD>Edwin Jackson </TD><TD>SP </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>2 </TD><TD>J.J. Hardy </TD><TD>SS </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>3 </TD><TD>Jason DuBois </TD><TD>OF </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>4 </TD><TD>Mark Teahen </TD><TD>3B </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>5 </TD><TD>Victor Diaz </TD><TD>OF </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
These can be found by studying our major-league depth charts going into spring -- and coming out of it.
Former Cardinal Tony Womack was a solid sleeper last season because he went into the camp without a job and came out of it as the starting second baseman and leadoff man of the best offense in the NL. As were the Pirates' Craig Wilson and Reds' Wily Mo Pena, who earned everyday jobs and wound up displaying big-time pop.
1. Chase Utley, 2B, Philadelphia Phillies
It might be unfathomable anyone in your league would ignore such a talented power-providing second baseman, but Placido Polanco was the reason Utley was riding the pine last season, and he was re-signed this winter. Some owners might think Polanco will again cut into Utley's time, which could allow him to fall into your lap. If he does drop, grab him. You can expect 20-25 homers and 85 RBI as he plays every day and leaves Polanco to a role of picking splinters -- or trying to beat out banged-up third baseman David Bell.
2. Jason Lane, OF, Houston Astros
With Lance Berkman's serious knee injury and the free-agent departure of Carlos Beltran, the long-awaited arrival of Lane is finally here. The outfielder has an everyday job going into a season for the first time, and the Astros are expecting 25-30 homers with 100 RBI. Those might seem farfetched when you look at Lane's major-league production, but at 28, he's entering his prime years and once hit 38 homers with 124 RBI in his last full season as an everyday player (2001 in Double-A).
3. Brandon Inge, 3B, Detroit Tigers
Like Lane, Inge is a 28-year-old just now coming into an everyday job. While his production is mediocre for a Fantasy third baseman, Inge has catcher eligibility, which will make him an intriguing sleeper on Draft Day. He also has outfield versatility to add to his resume. A Fantasy catcher who plays around 150 games in the lineup is invaluable, and almost unheard of.
4. Michael Cuddyer, 3B, Minnesota Twins
Cuddyer, who will be 26 by opening day, figures to take over as the Twins' everyday third baseman. He will have to beat out Eric Munson and Terry Tiffee this spring, but that shouldn't be too difficult because the Twins traditionally have brought their youngsters along slowly, and he has already served his apprenticeship the past two years. Munson has been playing some first base this spring, so the battle might already have been won. Like Inge, Cuddyer has versatility to his resume, being able to play second or third in most Fantasy leagues (and first and outfield in some others). Like Lane, Cuddyer hit 30 homers his last full season of playing every day (2001 in Double-A).
5. David Roberts, CF, San Diego Padres
Roberts steps in to become the Padres' everyday leadoff man and center fielder in 2005. He is a little old for a sleeper (32), but his stolen-base potential is immense with a steady job. He has yet to play a 150-plus game season, so he could very well set a career high in steals (previous best was 45). Outside of steals and runs scored, though, he won't do anything for your Rotisserie team. His value is much lower in points-based Head-to-Head leagues.
Other new starter sleepers: Dan Haren, SP, Oakland Athletics; Raul Mondesi, RF, Atlanta Braves; Shawn Chacon, SP, Colorado Rockies; Glendon Rusch, SP, Chicago Cubs; Brady Clark, CF, Milwaukee Brewers; Endy Chavez, CF, Washington Nationals; Yadier Molina, C, St. Louis Cardinals.
Other sleepers who should have, but still need to earn, a starting job: Mike Adams, CL, Milwaukee Brewers; Pedro Feliz, 3B/1B/SS, San Francisco Giants; Humberto Cota, C, Pittsburgh Pirates; Todd Hollandsworth, LF, Chicago Cubs; Keith Ginter, 2B, Oakland Athletics; Carlos Hernandez, SP, Houston Astros; David Dellucci, DH, Texas Rangers; Felipe Lopez, SS, Cincinnati Reds; Russell Branyan, 3B, Milwaukee Brewers.
Overlooked sophomores
Rookies are nice sleepers because no one knows about them. But second-year guys are even better, particularly those who were rated top prospects, because the most people know or learned about them is they weren't very good last season. As much emphasis as some owners tend to place on rookies, you would be amazed how quickly those same people turn sour on players who didn't make their huge splash the first season.
Remember how many people ignored one Hank Blalock in 2003 after he hit just .211 in his rookie year? He wound up hitting .300 with 29 homers and 90 RBI as a sophomore. Not too shabby for a late third-base flier.
Or how about the ultimate example from 2004: Victor Martinez, who went from 2003 rookie bust to one of the best catchers in Fantasy Baseball. It is hard to project such drastic improvements from this crop below, but a Lyle Overbay-like second-year success story is almost certainly in this mix:
1. Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota Twins
Much like Utley, Mauer very well might not be a true sleeper since many will still rate him among the top options at his position. But if he does happen to fall to you, Mauer has the best chance of producing a Martinez-like breakthrough. Some might be scared off by his knee injury. But Mauer's bat has just too much juice to not at least get time as the DH this season.
2. Kaz Matsui, SS, New York Mets
The Japanese "A-Rod" was "A-Dud" and will certainly have his share of owners turning their noses up at him, especially since he didn't score 100 runs, steal 20 bases or hit even 10 homers as promised. That talent is still there, though, and the Mets will be much improved with Jose Reyes expected to be healthy and in the leadoff job. Matsui will hit in front of free-agent signee Carlos Beltran in the No. 2 spot. Matsui profiles better as a two hitter, particularly when you consider he hit .311 there as opposed to .234 leadoff in 2004.
3. Alexis Rios, RF, Toronto Blue Jays
It will be very easy to dismiss Rios to the late rounds of a Fantasy draft this spring, especially with just one homer and a .338 on-base percentage. It is very likely he wouldn't be drafted in many mixed leagues; the Blue Jays just aren't a high-profile team with an intriguing enough supporting cast. But this was perhaps the best prospect in baseball going into last season. He has plenty of growing to do on his 6-foot-5, 185-pound frame, so those Dave Winfield comparisons shouldn't be completely forgotten.
4. Adam LaRoche, 1B, Atlanta Braves
Many knocked LaRoche in his rookie year for a perceived lack of power for a first baseman, but LaRoche has that sweet swing and long frame that projects to hit with increasing power as he matures. Even last season, LaRoche's .488 slugging percentage ranked up there with the Phil Nevins and Brad Wilkersons of the world. Right now most of LaRoche's power comes in the way of doubles, but that will change once he learns the pitching and becomes more aggressive with his swing. It could happen this year, and your Fantasy team could be the beneficiary.
5. Cliff Lee, SP, Cleveland Indians
Technically, Lee, 26, is a third-year pitcher, but 2005 will be his second full season as a locked-in member of the rotation. He won 14 games in 2004, but owners will be turned off on Draft Day by his 5.43 overall ERA, particularly his awful second half in which he went 5-7, 7.91 after the All-Star break. Owners will downgrade him after this breakdown, but you can expect numbers much closer to his first half success: 9-1, 3.77.
Other potentially overlooked sophomores: David DeJesus, CF, Kansas City Royals; Aaron Miles, 2B, Colorado Rockies; Jorge Cantu, 2B, Tampa Bay Devil Rays; Bobby Madritsch, SP, Seattle Mariners; Luis Terrero, CF, Arizona Diamondbacks; Chad Tracy, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks; Grady Sizemore, OF, Cleveland Indians; Justin Duchscherer, P, Oakland Athletics; Ruben Gotay, 2B, Kansas City Royals; Yhency Brazoban, RP, Los Angeles Dodgers; Chin Hui-Tsao, P, Colorado Rockies.
Injury risks
Nothing crushes a player's value more than a fragility stigma. Look at Jose Reyes or the injury-prone poster boy, Ken Griffey Jr. Our Draft Preview has a feature that focuses solely on the top players coming off injuries, but here are a few players who are low enough on the radar to qualify as sleepers; call them the 'What ifs?':
1. Austin Kearns, RF, Cincinnati Reds
Prospect buffs know this already, but most Fantasy Baseball laymen don't: Kearns was touted to be a bigger prospect than Adam Dunn, who practically knocked Earth off its axis with 46 homers, 102 RBI and 105 runs last season. And those scouting reports came after Dunn made a 19-homer splash in the second half of 2001. That's the amazing part, but also the sad, because Kearns still has yet to show any of his big-time offensive potential. Added to his injury woes is the emergence of Wily Mo Pena, who hit 26 homers in his own breakout last season. They were slated to compete for the Reds' everyday right-fielder's job this spring, so Kearns will be an extreme bargain on Draft Day. But that talent is still there, and the huge breakthrough still to come (unlike Pena).
2. Trot Nixon, RF, Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox slugger had the makings of a top-flight Fantasy outfielder before a back injury almost completely wiped out his season in 2004. He is expected to return to full health, which could mean career highs of a .300-plus average, 30 homers and 100 RBI in his future. He is a great talent, playing in a great hitter's park with a great supporting cast. And that is a great deal of upside for a player who was stolen as the fourth pick of the 17th round in our December experts league draft.
3. Laynce Nix, CF, Texas Rangers
The Rangers' slated center fielder has some promise that will be shrouded by his awful numbers from last season (.248-14-46-58-1). A 6-foot, 190-pound lefty, he has been projected to have 20-20 pop and speed. His first full season in the bigs was hampered by injury, as he hit just .218 in the second half. You should expect more of his first-half success this season (.291-9-23-28-1 in his first 49 games before the injury), but be wary of Gary Matthews Jr. possibly cutting into his playing time.
4. Jay Gibbons, RF, Baltimore Orioles
Gibbons was the rare story of a 27-year-old who actually declined in his expected breakout year, going from .277-23-100-80-0 to .246-10-47-36-1. He couldn't stay healthy or productive for any stretch last season. He did hit .299 with 11 RBI and nine runs scored the final month of the season, though, which could carry over into 2005.
5. Wade Miller, SP, Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox might have pulled off the steal of the offseason when they acquired Miller on the cheap. The former 16-game winner has an issue to resolve with his shoulder, but once that's cleared up, he will become known as the best back-end starter in all of baseball. In Boston, Miller will be slated as the fourth or fifth starter until he shows how healthy and talented he is. He is out the first month of the season, but he can still win 15 games in five months in Boston. Try to get him on the cheap on Draft Day, because productive pitchers on contending teams are very hard to come by during the season.
Other potential sleepers who are in the injury-prone category: Ken Griffey, OF, Cincinnati Reds; Mike Sweeney, 1B, Kansas City Royals; Mark Ellis, 2B, Oakland Athletics; Paul Byrd, SP, Anaheim Angels; Luis Matos, OF, Baltimore Orioles; Runelvys Hernandez, SP, Kansas City Royals; Brian Jordan, OF, Atlanta Braves.
Age 27s
Whether or not you have heard this before, you'll want to hear it again, so the message comes across clearly: Age 27 is Fantasy Baseball's glory year. It is traditionally a hitter's breakthrough season, not to mention the reason players get the big money in a well-timed free-agent year.
Beltran is the top 27-year-old for 2005, but here are a few who will be undervalued and passed over on Draft Day:
1. Vicente Padilla, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
There is less data that supports age 27 as a pitcher's breakout year, but there has long been something to like about Padilla, who is likely now slotted as the Phillies ace. He has some injury questions to resolve, but once he does return, you will want to snatch him up. After back-to-back 14-win seasons in 2002-03, Padilla slumped to a 7-7 mark with a 4.53 ERA last season. If he is able to go 200 innings again, he could win 15 games with a low-3.00 ERA and around 150 strikeouts. That's excellent production for a starting pitcher who will be overlooked by many on Draft Day. He went in Round 20 in our December experts league draft.
2. Orlando Hudson, 2B, Toronto Blue Jays
Quick, who would you rather have: Hudson or Bret Boone? Only a fool wouldn't take Boone in Fantasy leagues. But someone buying into the age-27 phenomenon would pass on the Mariners second baseman early and wait for Hudson in Round 22, which is where he was drafted in our December experts draft. Hudson's vitals (AVG, OBP, SLUG, OPS) were better in every category than Boone's. It has yet to translate into real run production, but his age-27 season could be the year.
3. Cristian Guzman, SS, Washington Nationals
Guzman was Fantasy trash in Minnesota, so naturally he will be the same or worse in Washington, right? Not so. Remember Carlos Guillen? He is last year's shining example of a disappointing shortstop who was allowed to flee to another team right before his prime. Guillen's 2003 numbers (.276 average, seven homers, 52 RBI, 63 runs and four stolen bases) are eerily similar to Guzman's in 2004 (.274-8-46-84-10). Now, imagine if Guzman (6-feet, 188 pounds) can do what Guillen (6-1, 180) did with his new team (.318-20-97-97-12). You cannot expect the same sudden breakout, but you should anticipate improvement.
4. Angel Berroa, SS, Kansas City Royals
The 2003 AL rookie of the year had your typical sophomore setback last season in Kansas City. Heck, he was even demoted to the minors for a stretch so the Royals could go with all-field, no-hit Andres Blanco last season. Berroa might not be as promising as his rookie season, but he is not as awful as he showed last year. Pick him up as a last-round flier in leagues in anticipate for some serious maturation as he hits his prime age.
5. Kip Wells, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates
After posting his first winning season and a career-low 3.28 ERA in 2003, Wells took a step back last season (5-7, 4.55). It will leave him affordable on Draft Day, but you shouldn't forget his high-end potential. Wells is the No. 2 starter behind 2004 breakout Oliver Perez, so he no longer will have to carry the torch as the staff ace or face the opposition's best pitcher. Expect that to help his win totals as gets his ERA back into the low-3.00s and his strikeouts above the 150 mark for the first time.
For more on the age-27 phenomenon, click on our "Draft Preview: Age 27 is prime time" feature. We also rank all the 27- and 28-year-olds, overall and by position.
Rookies, prospects
Rookies are the easiest way to find sleepers, because all of them are. No one truly knows what a first-year player will do. Our Draft Preview has a feature focusing solely on them, but here are a few that will fly even under the rookie radar on Draft Day. These are deepest of sleepers, Rip Van Winkle-style:
1. Edwin Jackson, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
The top prospect was drawing rave reviews last winter, causing him to get drafted in many leagues last season. Not only did he not win a big-league job in the spring, but he struggled in Triple-A as well. In fact, he would have been garbage even in a Triple-A Fantasy league -- if those even exist. (If you're in one, seek help.) But, seriously, you likely remember how much the scouts thought of his arm. Los Angeles is sour on Kaz Ishii's poor command, which makes him a candidate for a trade or a demotion to the bullpen. If Jackson somehow beats out Ishii and Wilson Alvarez as the Dodgers' fifth starter this spring, he could be an intriguing pick again.
2. J.J. Hardy, SS, Milwaukee Brewers
Here is another 2004 top rookie prospect gone wrong. Hardy remains a rookie after missing most of last season with a separated shoulder. The injury occurred on a swing, akin to that of Richie Sexson, so there are still some doubts he will be healthy enough to win the Brewers' everyday shortstop job this spring. Hardy has double-digit pop and speed potential and is currently the odds-on favorite to beat out Billy Hall, which could bring him back to the Fantasy Baseball radar. Rest assured, Hardy will start on opening day, because Hall is shagging flies in the outfield this spring in a preparation to serve as a utility man.
3. Jason DuBois, LF, Chicago Cubs
Like Hollandsworth, DuBois will get a chance to compete for the Cubs' starting left-fielder job -- along with Jerry Hairston Jr. DuBois could also be the right-handed portion of a true platoon with Hollandsworth. Now, the right-hander gets less opportunities in that scenario, so DuBois is as deep a sleeper as you will find. He could be as talented as any, though, too. Soon to be 26, he hit an eye-popping 31 homers with 99 RBI last season at Triple-A Iowa. Now, those are PCL numbers, but the run-production potential shouldn't be ignored.
4. Mark Teahen, 3B, Kansas City Royals
More famous for his role in Moneyball than his actual minor-league production, Teahen was the key piece of the Carlos Beltran trade last July. That elevated level of commitment to him by the Royals organization might mean he is in line to unseat journeyman Chris Truby as the starting third baseman this spring. It is too early to tell if that will happen -- especially since Truby was off to a late start due to injury -- but Teahen did help himself with a .385 average and 25 RBI in the Arizona Fall League. He won the Dernell Stenson Sportsmanship Award for his professional demeanor, meaning he is at least mentally prepared for a big-league arrival.
5. Victor Diaz, OF, New York Mets
Diaz clearly doesn't have a job this spring in the Mets' crowded outfield, but he will do his time coming off the bench. It leaves his value very limited, but he does have talent to hit the baseball. The two-time minor-league batting champion finally broke through in the power category last season, hitting a combined 27 homers with 102 RBI and 89 runs scored between Triple-A Norfolk and the Mets. If Mike Cameron is out part of April as was expected, Diaz will be the starting right fielder on opening day. If he continues to hit like he has, it will be tough for Willie Randolph to keep his name out of the lineup.
For more on the top rookies to target on Draft Day, click on our "Draft Preview: Top 100 rookies" feature.
</TD><TD> </TD><TD width=160>Draft Prep
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=hrcolor0 height=1><SPACER type="block" height="1"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=cnewstxt2>Fantasy Advice
<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/draft-prep/8120786">Top 300 Rankings
<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/draft-prep/8150412">Player vs. player
<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/draft-prep/8156736">Rookies
<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/draft-prep/8136337">Breakouts
? Sleepers
<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/draft-prep/8156562">Busts
<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/draft-prep/8228885">AL-only mock draft
<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/draft-prep/8228141">NL-only mock draft
<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/draft-prep/8132848">Draft strategies
<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/draft-prep/8144609">Auction Strategies
<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/draft-prep/8117836">Anatomy of a winning season
<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/draft-prep/8099213">Experts Draft
<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/draft-prep/8121274">Ranking the 28-year-olds
<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/draft-prep/8121562">Age 27 is prime time
<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/draft-prep/8130271">Ranking the 27-year-olds
</TD><TD width=10></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Senior Fantasy Writer
Tell Eric your opinion
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!-- T8141668 --><!-- Sesame Modified: 03/12/2005 11:21:11 --><!-- sversion: 24 $Updated: emack$ -->Jeepers creepers, where'd you get those sleepers?
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=150 align=left><TBODY><TR><TD width=150>
</TD><TD width=15> </TD></TR><TR><TD width=150>Injuries, a position battle and unrealized potential make Austin Kearns a terrific Draft Day sleeper. (Getty Images) </TD><TD width=15> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>You will want to hear that around, say, the All-Star break of this Fantasy Baseball season. Sure it's corny, but it sounds a lot better to the ear if you're hearing it and not the one saying it around your league's trading deadline. In order to stockpile a team with big-time talent, you're going to need to find inefficiencies in the marketplace. That means, like a good stock-market investor, you will want to buy low and sell high at every possible turn.
Draft Day is the single most important time to do it. Every player is tagged going in with a certain amount of perceived value (a projected ranking or dollar value), but finding a player's real value is the trick.
The "sleeper" is the player whose real value far exceeds his perceived one, and there are five great places to find them: new starters, overlooked sophomores, age 27s, top prospects and the injury prone. We outline some of the undervalued players on Draft Day by these five categories.
New starters
<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="40%" align=right border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg0><TD class=bg0 align=middle colSpan=3>Top Sleepers </TD></TR><TR class=bg0><TD colSpan=3>New Starters </TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Rk </TD><TD>Player </TD><TD>Pos </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>1 </TD><TD>Chase Utley </TD><TD>2B </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>2 </TD><TD>Jason Lane </TD><TD>OF </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>3 </TD><TD>Brandon Inge </TD><TD>3B/C/OF </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>4 </TD><TD>Michael Cuddyer </TD><TD>3B/2B </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>5 </TD><TD>Dave Roberts </TD><TD>OF </TD></TR><TR class=bg0><TD colSpan=3>Sophomores </TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Rk </TD><TD>Player </TD><TD>Pos </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>1 </TD><TD>Joe Mauer </TD><TD>C </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>2 </TD><TD>Kaz Matsui </TD><TD>SS </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>3 </TD><TD>Alexis Rios </TD><TD>OF </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>4 </TD><TD>Adam LaRoche </TD><TD>1B </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>5 </TD><TD>Cliff Lee </TD><TD>SP </TD></TR><TR class=bg0><TD colSpan=3>Injury-prone </TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Rk </TD><TD>Player </TD><TD>Pos </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>1 </TD><TD>Austin Kearns </TD><TD>OF </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>2 </TD><TD>Trot Nixon </TD><TD>OF </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>3 </TD><TD>Laynce Nix </TD><TD>OF </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>4 </TD><TD>Jay Gibbons </TD><TD>OF </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>5 </TD><TD>Wade Miller </TD><TD>SP </TD></TR><TR class=bg0><TD colSpan=3>Age 27 </TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Rk </TD><TD>Player </TD><TD>Pos </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>1 </TD><TD>Vicente Padilla </TD><TD>SP </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>2 </TD><TD>Orlando Hudson </TD><TD>2B </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>3 </TD><TD>Cristian Guzman </TD><TD>SS </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>4 </TD><TD>Jason Frasor </TD><TD>RP </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>5 </TD><TD>Kip Wells </TD><TD>SP </TD></TR><TR class=bg0><TD colSpan=3>Prospects </TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Rk </TD><TD>Player </TD><TD>Pos </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>1 </TD><TD>Edwin Jackson </TD><TD>SP </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>2 </TD><TD>J.J. Hardy </TD><TD>SS </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>3 </TD><TD>Jason DuBois </TD><TD>OF </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>4 </TD><TD>Mark Teahen </TD><TD>3B </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>5 </TD><TD>Victor Diaz </TD><TD>OF </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
These can be found by studying our major-league depth charts going into spring -- and coming out of it.
Former Cardinal Tony Womack was a solid sleeper last season because he went into the camp without a job and came out of it as the starting second baseman and leadoff man of the best offense in the NL. As were the Pirates' Craig Wilson and Reds' Wily Mo Pena, who earned everyday jobs and wound up displaying big-time pop.
1. Chase Utley, 2B, Philadelphia Phillies
It might be unfathomable anyone in your league would ignore such a talented power-providing second baseman, but Placido Polanco was the reason Utley was riding the pine last season, and he was re-signed this winter. Some owners might think Polanco will again cut into Utley's time, which could allow him to fall into your lap. If he does drop, grab him. You can expect 20-25 homers and 85 RBI as he plays every day and leaves Polanco to a role of picking splinters -- or trying to beat out banged-up third baseman David Bell.
2. Jason Lane, OF, Houston Astros
With Lance Berkman's serious knee injury and the free-agent departure of Carlos Beltran, the long-awaited arrival of Lane is finally here. The outfielder has an everyday job going into a season for the first time, and the Astros are expecting 25-30 homers with 100 RBI. Those might seem farfetched when you look at Lane's major-league production, but at 28, he's entering his prime years and once hit 38 homers with 124 RBI in his last full season as an everyday player (2001 in Double-A).
3. Brandon Inge, 3B, Detroit Tigers
Like Lane, Inge is a 28-year-old just now coming into an everyday job. While his production is mediocre for a Fantasy third baseman, Inge has catcher eligibility, which will make him an intriguing sleeper on Draft Day. He also has outfield versatility to add to his resume. A Fantasy catcher who plays around 150 games in the lineup is invaluable, and almost unheard of.
4. Michael Cuddyer, 3B, Minnesota Twins
Cuddyer, who will be 26 by opening day, figures to take over as the Twins' everyday third baseman. He will have to beat out Eric Munson and Terry Tiffee this spring, but that shouldn't be too difficult because the Twins traditionally have brought their youngsters along slowly, and he has already served his apprenticeship the past two years. Munson has been playing some first base this spring, so the battle might already have been won. Like Inge, Cuddyer has versatility to his resume, being able to play second or third in most Fantasy leagues (and first and outfield in some others). Like Lane, Cuddyer hit 30 homers his last full season of playing every day (2001 in Double-A).
5. David Roberts, CF, San Diego Padres
Roberts steps in to become the Padres' everyday leadoff man and center fielder in 2005. He is a little old for a sleeper (32), but his stolen-base potential is immense with a steady job. He has yet to play a 150-plus game season, so he could very well set a career high in steals (previous best was 45). Outside of steals and runs scored, though, he won't do anything for your Rotisserie team. His value is much lower in points-based Head-to-Head leagues.
Other new starter sleepers: Dan Haren, SP, Oakland Athletics; Raul Mondesi, RF, Atlanta Braves; Shawn Chacon, SP, Colorado Rockies; Glendon Rusch, SP, Chicago Cubs; Brady Clark, CF, Milwaukee Brewers; Endy Chavez, CF, Washington Nationals; Yadier Molina, C, St. Louis Cardinals.
Other sleepers who should have, but still need to earn, a starting job: Mike Adams, CL, Milwaukee Brewers; Pedro Feliz, 3B/1B/SS, San Francisco Giants; Humberto Cota, C, Pittsburgh Pirates; Todd Hollandsworth, LF, Chicago Cubs; Keith Ginter, 2B, Oakland Athletics; Carlos Hernandez, SP, Houston Astros; David Dellucci, DH, Texas Rangers; Felipe Lopez, SS, Cincinnati Reds; Russell Branyan, 3B, Milwaukee Brewers.
Overlooked sophomores
Rookies are nice sleepers because no one knows about them. But second-year guys are even better, particularly those who were rated top prospects, because the most people know or learned about them is they weren't very good last season. As much emphasis as some owners tend to place on rookies, you would be amazed how quickly those same people turn sour on players who didn't make their huge splash the first season.
Remember how many people ignored one Hank Blalock in 2003 after he hit just .211 in his rookie year? He wound up hitting .300 with 29 homers and 90 RBI as a sophomore. Not too shabby for a late third-base flier.
Or how about the ultimate example from 2004: Victor Martinez, who went from 2003 rookie bust to one of the best catchers in Fantasy Baseball. It is hard to project such drastic improvements from this crop below, but a Lyle Overbay-like second-year success story is almost certainly in this mix:
1. Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota Twins
Much like Utley, Mauer very well might not be a true sleeper since many will still rate him among the top options at his position. But if he does happen to fall to you, Mauer has the best chance of producing a Martinez-like breakthrough. Some might be scared off by his knee injury. But Mauer's bat has just too much juice to not at least get time as the DH this season.
2. Kaz Matsui, SS, New York Mets
The Japanese "A-Rod" was "A-Dud" and will certainly have his share of owners turning their noses up at him, especially since he didn't score 100 runs, steal 20 bases or hit even 10 homers as promised. That talent is still there, though, and the Mets will be much improved with Jose Reyes expected to be healthy and in the leadoff job. Matsui will hit in front of free-agent signee Carlos Beltran in the No. 2 spot. Matsui profiles better as a two hitter, particularly when you consider he hit .311 there as opposed to .234 leadoff in 2004.
3. Alexis Rios, RF, Toronto Blue Jays
It will be very easy to dismiss Rios to the late rounds of a Fantasy draft this spring, especially with just one homer and a .338 on-base percentage. It is very likely he wouldn't be drafted in many mixed leagues; the Blue Jays just aren't a high-profile team with an intriguing enough supporting cast. But this was perhaps the best prospect in baseball going into last season. He has plenty of growing to do on his 6-foot-5, 185-pound frame, so those Dave Winfield comparisons shouldn't be completely forgotten.
4. Adam LaRoche, 1B, Atlanta Braves
Many knocked LaRoche in his rookie year for a perceived lack of power for a first baseman, but LaRoche has that sweet swing and long frame that projects to hit with increasing power as he matures. Even last season, LaRoche's .488 slugging percentage ranked up there with the Phil Nevins and Brad Wilkersons of the world. Right now most of LaRoche's power comes in the way of doubles, but that will change once he learns the pitching and becomes more aggressive with his swing. It could happen this year, and your Fantasy team could be the beneficiary.
5. Cliff Lee, SP, Cleveland Indians
Technically, Lee, 26, is a third-year pitcher, but 2005 will be his second full season as a locked-in member of the rotation. He won 14 games in 2004, but owners will be turned off on Draft Day by his 5.43 overall ERA, particularly his awful second half in which he went 5-7, 7.91 after the All-Star break. Owners will downgrade him after this breakdown, but you can expect numbers much closer to his first half success: 9-1, 3.77.
Other potentially overlooked sophomores: David DeJesus, CF, Kansas City Royals; Aaron Miles, 2B, Colorado Rockies; Jorge Cantu, 2B, Tampa Bay Devil Rays; Bobby Madritsch, SP, Seattle Mariners; Luis Terrero, CF, Arizona Diamondbacks; Chad Tracy, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks; Grady Sizemore, OF, Cleveland Indians; Justin Duchscherer, P, Oakland Athletics; Ruben Gotay, 2B, Kansas City Royals; Yhency Brazoban, RP, Los Angeles Dodgers; Chin Hui-Tsao, P, Colorado Rockies.
Injury risks
Nothing crushes a player's value more than a fragility stigma. Look at Jose Reyes or the injury-prone poster boy, Ken Griffey Jr. Our Draft Preview has a feature that focuses solely on the top players coming off injuries, but here are a few players who are low enough on the radar to qualify as sleepers; call them the 'What ifs?':
1. Austin Kearns, RF, Cincinnati Reds
Prospect buffs know this already, but most Fantasy Baseball laymen don't: Kearns was touted to be a bigger prospect than Adam Dunn, who practically knocked Earth off its axis with 46 homers, 102 RBI and 105 runs last season. And those scouting reports came after Dunn made a 19-homer splash in the second half of 2001. That's the amazing part, but also the sad, because Kearns still has yet to show any of his big-time offensive potential. Added to his injury woes is the emergence of Wily Mo Pena, who hit 26 homers in his own breakout last season. They were slated to compete for the Reds' everyday right-fielder's job this spring, so Kearns will be an extreme bargain on Draft Day. But that talent is still there, and the huge breakthrough still to come (unlike Pena).
2. Trot Nixon, RF, Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox slugger had the makings of a top-flight Fantasy outfielder before a back injury almost completely wiped out his season in 2004. He is expected to return to full health, which could mean career highs of a .300-plus average, 30 homers and 100 RBI in his future. He is a great talent, playing in a great hitter's park with a great supporting cast. And that is a great deal of upside for a player who was stolen as the fourth pick of the 17th round in our December experts league draft.
3. Laynce Nix, CF, Texas Rangers
The Rangers' slated center fielder has some promise that will be shrouded by his awful numbers from last season (.248-14-46-58-1). A 6-foot, 190-pound lefty, he has been projected to have 20-20 pop and speed. His first full season in the bigs was hampered by injury, as he hit just .218 in the second half. You should expect more of his first-half success this season (.291-9-23-28-1 in his first 49 games before the injury), but be wary of Gary Matthews Jr. possibly cutting into his playing time.
4. Jay Gibbons, RF, Baltimore Orioles
Gibbons was the rare story of a 27-year-old who actually declined in his expected breakout year, going from .277-23-100-80-0 to .246-10-47-36-1. He couldn't stay healthy or productive for any stretch last season. He did hit .299 with 11 RBI and nine runs scored the final month of the season, though, which could carry over into 2005.
5. Wade Miller, SP, Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox might have pulled off the steal of the offseason when they acquired Miller on the cheap. The former 16-game winner has an issue to resolve with his shoulder, but once that's cleared up, he will become known as the best back-end starter in all of baseball. In Boston, Miller will be slated as the fourth or fifth starter until he shows how healthy and talented he is. He is out the first month of the season, but he can still win 15 games in five months in Boston. Try to get him on the cheap on Draft Day, because productive pitchers on contending teams are very hard to come by during the season.
Other potential sleepers who are in the injury-prone category: Ken Griffey, OF, Cincinnati Reds; Mike Sweeney, 1B, Kansas City Royals; Mark Ellis, 2B, Oakland Athletics; Paul Byrd, SP, Anaheim Angels; Luis Matos, OF, Baltimore Orioles; Runelvys Hernandez, SP, Kansas City Royals; Brian Jordan, OF, Atlanta Braves.
Age 27s
Whether or not you have heard this before, you'll want to hear it again, so the message comes across clearly: Age 27 is Fantasy Baseball's glory year. It is traditionally a hitter's breakthrough season, not to mention the reason players get the big money in a well-timed free-agent year.
Beltran is the top 27-year-old for 2005, but here are a few who will be undervalued and passed over on Draft Day:
1. Vicente Padilla, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
There is less data that supports age 27 as a pitcher's breakout year, but there has long been something to like about Padilla, who is likely now slotted as the Phillies ace. He has some injury questions to resolve, but once he does return, you will want to snatch him up. After back-to-back 14-win seasons in 2002-03, Padilla slumped to a 7-7 mark with a 4.53 ERA last season. If he is able to go 200 innings again, he could win 15 games with a low-3.00 ERA and around 150 strikeouts. That's excellent production for a starting pitcher who will be overlooked by many on Draft Day. He went in Round 20 in our December experts league draft.
2. Orlando Hudson, 2B, Toronto Blue Jays
Quick, who would you rather have: Hudson or Bret Boone? Only a fool wouldn't take Boone in Fantasy leagues. But someone buying into the age-27 phenomenon would pass on the Mariners second baseman early and wait for Hudson in Round 22, which is where he was drafted in our December experts draft. Hudson's vitals (AVG, OBP, SLUG, OPS) were better in every category than Boone's. It has yet to translate into real run production, but his age-27 season could be the year.
3. Cristian Guzman, SS, Washington Nationals
Guzman was Fantasy trash in Minnesota, so naturally he will be the same or worse in Washington, right? Not so. Remember Carlos Guillen? He is last year's shining example of a disappointing shortstop who was allowed to flee to another team right before his prime. Guillen's 2003 numbers (.276 average, seven homers, 52 RBI, 63 runs and four stolen bases) are eerily similar to Guzman's in 2004 (.274-8-46-84-10). Now, imagine if Guzman (6-feet, 188 pounds) can do what Guillen (6-1, 180) did with his new team (.318-20-97-97-12). You cannot expect the same sudden breakout, but you should anticipate improvement.
4. Angel Berroa, SS, Kansas City Royals
The 2003 AL rookie of the year had your typical sophomore setback last season in Kansas City. Heck, he was even demoted to the minors for a stretch so the Royals could go with all-field, no-hit Andres Blanco last season. Berroa might not be as promising as his rookie season, but he is not as awful as he showed last year. Pick him up as a last-round flier in leagues in anticipate for some serious maturation as he hits his prime age.
5. Kip Wells, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates
After posting his first winning season and a career-low 3.28 ERA in 2003, Wells took a step back last season (5-7, 4.55). It will leave him affordable on Draft Day, but you shouldn't forget his high-end potential. Wells is the No. 2 starter behind 2004 breakout Oliver Perez, so he no longer will have to carry the torch as the staff ace or face the opposition's best pitcher. Expect that to help his win totals as gets his ERA back into the low-3.00s and his strikeouts above the 150 mark for the first time.
For more on the age-27 phenomenon, click on our "Draft Preview: Age 27 is prime time" feature. We also rank all the 27- and 28-year-olds, overall and by position.
Rookies, prospects
Rookies are the easiest way to find sleepers, because all of them are. No one truly knows what a first-year player will do. Our Draft Preview has a feature focusing solely on them, but here are a few that will fly even under the rookie radar on Draft Day. These are deepest of sleepers, Rip Van Winkle-style:
1. Edwin Jackson, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
The top prospect was drawing rave reviews last winter, causing him to get drafted in many leagues last season. Not only did he not win a big-league job in the spring, but he struggled in Triple-A as well. In fact, he would have been garbage even in a Triple-A Fantasy league -- if those even exist. (If you're in one, seek help.) But, seriously, you likely remember how much the scouts thought of his arm. Los Angeles is sour on Kaz Ishii's poor command, which makes him a candidate for a trade or a demotion to the bullpen. If Jackson somehow beats out Ishii and Wilson Alvarez as the Dodgers' fifth starter this spring, he could be an intriguing pick again.
2. J.J. Hardy, SS, Milwaukee Brewers
Here is another 2004 top rookie prospect gone wrong. Hardy remains a rookie after missing most of last season with a separated shoulder. The injury occurred on a swing, akin to that of Richie Sexson, so there are still some doubts he will be healthy enough to win the Brewers' everyday shortstop job this spring. Hardy has double-digit pop and speed potential and is currently the odds-on favorite to beat out Billy Hall, which could bring him back to the Fantasy Baseball radar. Rest assured, Hardy will start on opening day, because Hall is shagging flies in the outfield this spring in a preparation to serve as a utility man.
3. Jason DuBois, LF, Chicago Cubs
Like Hollandsworth, DuBois will get a chance to compete for the Cubs' starting left-fielder job -- along with Jerry Hairston Jr. DuBois could also be the right-handed portion of a true platoon with Hollandsworth. Now, the right-hander gets less opportunities in that scenario, so DuBois is as deep a sleeper as you will find. He could be as talented as any, though, too. Soon to be 26, he hit an eye-popping 31 homers with 99 RBI last season at Triple-A Iowa. Now, those are PCL numbers, but the run-production potential shouldn't be ignored.
4. Mark Teahen, 3B, Kansas City Royals
More famous for his role in Moneyball than his actual minor-league production, Teahen was the key piece of the Carlos Beltran trade last July. That elevated level of commitment to him by the Royals organization might mean he is in line to unseat journeyman Chris Truby as the starting third baseman this spring. It is too early to tell if that will happen -- especially since Truby was off to a late start due to injury -- but Teahen did help himself with a .385 average and 25 RBI in the Arizona Fall League. He won the Dernell Stenson Sportsmanship Award for his professional demeanor, meaning he is at least mentally prepared for a big-league arrival.
5. Victor Diaz, OF, New York Mets
Diaz clearly doesn't have a job this spring in the Mets' crowded outfield, but he will do his time coming off the bench. It leaves his value very limited, but he does have talent to hit the baseball. The two-time minor-league batting champion finally broke through in the power category last season, hitting a combined 27 homers with 102 RBI and 89 runs scored between Triple-A Norfolk and the Mets. If Mike Cameron is out part of April as was expected, Diaz will be the starting right fielder on opening day. If he continues to hit like he has, it will be tough for Willie Randolph to keep his name out of the lineup.
For more on the top rookies to target on Draft Day, click on our "Draft Preview: Top 100 rookies" feature.
</TD><TD> </TD><TD width=160>Draft Prep
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=hrcolor0 height=1><SPACER type="block" height="1"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=cnewstxt2>Fantasy Advice
<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/draft-prep/8120786">Top 300 Rankings
<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/draft-prep/8150412">Player vs. player
<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/draft-prep/8156736">Rookies
<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/draft-prep/8136337">Breakouts
? Sleepers
<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/draft-prep/8156562">Busts
<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/draft-prep/8228885">AL-only mock draft
<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/draft-prep/8228141">NL-only mock draft
<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/draft-prep/8132848">Draft strategies
<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/draft-prep/8144609">Auction Strategies
<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/draft-prep/8117836">Anatomy of a winning season
<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/draft-prep/8099213">Experts Draft
<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/draft-prep/8121274">Ranking the 28-year-olds
<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/draft-prep/8121562">Age 27 is prime time
<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/draft-prep/8130271">Ranking the 27-year-olds
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