Eastern Conference Finals: Bucks v Raptors

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#1
Toronto was life-and-death in a must-win home game Sunday night.

Kawhi Leonard tweaked his knee in the first quarter but insisted after the game he's okay.

The Raptors rely too heavily on their superstar.

Meantime, Giannis fouled out early in the second overtime of a tough 118-112 loss.

I believe Milwaukee has a lot more left in the tank than Toronto.

The market is handicapping along with me by making Milwaukee a 2.5-point favorite for Game 4 after the Bucks closed a 2-point 'dog in Game 3.

Milwaukee or pass.

And I doubt I'll be passing.
 

Heim

EOG Master
#3
Toronto was life-and-death in a must-win home game Sunday night.

Kawhi Leonard tweaked his knee in the first quarter but insisted after the game he's okay.

The Raptors rely too heavily on their superstar.

Meantime, Giannis fouled out early in the second overtime of a tough 118-112 loss.

I believe Milwaukee has a lot more left in the tank than Toronto.

The market is handicapping along with me by making Milwaukee a 2.5-point favorite for Game 4 after the Bucks closed a 2-point 'dog in Game 3.

Milwaukee or pass.

And I doubt I'll be passing.

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kane

Railbird is a past posting pos
#4
Everyone is thinking the same thing, that if Toronto struggled to win a game they had to win at home, that means Milwaukee will beat them the next game, not so fast my friends. Remember, in game 1 the Raptors were winning very late, then fell apart in the final minutes, if they don't blow a late lead they're up 2-1 in the series, I think game 4 should be a pick'em, to me there's value on the Raptors as a HD, whenever the public thinks one way, I'll look for a reason to think the other way. If the public backs the Bucks like I expect, my money will be on the other side
 

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
#5
dont think big brother NBA wants one series to end in 4 and the other in 5 and have forever with no NBA which has the finals scheduled dates obviously set. this one will go 7
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#7
Everyone is thinking the same thing, that if Toronto struggled to win a game they had to win at home, that means Milwaukee will beat them the next game, not so fast my friends. Remember, in game 1 the Raptors were winning very late, then fell apart in the final minutes, if they don't blow a late lead they're up 2-1 in the series, I think game 4 should be a pick'em, to me there's value on the Raptors as a HD, whenever the public thinks one way, I'll look for a reason to think the other way. If the public backs the Bucks like I expect, my money will be on the other side
Point, counterpoint.

Thanks for sharing, Kane.

The beauty of sports betting: We will have an answer to the question late Tuesday night.

Of course, Milwaukee could win by two or three points, thus forcing everyone who had a wager on the game to lay -110 on a coin-flip result.
 

sharky99

EOG Dedicated
#8
Everything seems more difficult for Toronto, I would think MIlwaukee and the Blues in hockey will advance in their Series respectively
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#21
Final score: Toronto 120 Milwaukee 102.

And to think I had a good feeling about the game when I saw this early score: Milwaukee 12 Toronto 5.

It was downhill (or rather uphill?) from there.
 

Jb777

EOG Dedicated
#22
Everyone is thinking the same thing, that if Toronto struggled to win a game they had to win at home, that means Milwaukee will beat them the next game, not so fast my friends. Remember, in game 1 the Raptors were winning very late, then fell apart in the final minutes, if they don't blow a late lead they're up 2-1 in the series, I think game 4 should be a pick'em, to me there's value on the Raptors as a HD, whenever the public thinks one way, I'll look for a reason to think the other way. If the public backs the Bucks like I expect, my money will be on the other side
Solid post Kane
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
#24
Final score: Toronto 120 Milwaukee 102.

And to think I had a good feeling about the game when I saw this early score: Milwaukee 12 Toronto 5.

It was downhill (or rather uphill?) from there.
We have had this discussion a few times in the past. While it is not something you wanna have happen all of the time having a "dead wrong side" is easier to handle than losing on a last second shot or play that makes your ticket a loser after sweating it out the entire game.
 

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
#25
We have had this discussion a few times in the past. While it is not something you wanna have happen all of the time having a "dead wrong side" is easier to handle than losing on a last second shot or play that makes your ticket a loser after sweating it out the entire game.
you definitely dont want Maximum Security on your wagers.....
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
#26
you definitely dont want Maximum Security on your wagers.....
True Story: So a long time friend was in Vegas for the Derby. He asks who I like. I have no clue and tell him that. He says give me a horse and he'll put a few bucks on it. I like the number 15 so I say that. He tells me the odds so we pass on it. He asks me for another number. I am a lonnnnnnng time Broncos fan so I give him #7. He puts a few bucks on the horse - Maximum Security. You know the rest of the story
 
#28
We have had this discussion a few times in the past. While it is not something you wanna have happen all of the time having a "dead wrong side" is easier to handle than losing on a last second shot or play that makes your ticket a loser after sweating it out the entire game.
it depends on the person, if you have a person with low emotional intelligence the bad beats are more difficult to deal with
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#29
We have had this discussion a few times in the past. While it is not something you wanna have happen all of the time having a "dead wrong side" is easier to handle than losing on a last second shot or play that makes your ticket a loser after sweating it out the entire game.
Dead sides are a terrible sign for your bottom.line.

The definition of a losing streak: A few dead sides mixed in with a few coin-flip losses.
 

kane

Railbird is a past posting pos
#31
Thanks, I still don't understand why the Bucks were laying 3 on the road, the gap between these teams isn't wide enough to warrant that type of respect imo. In the regular season Milwaukee finished first in the East, Toronto finished second just 2 games behind them, I guess Milwaukee has looked better in the playoffs, but not enough to justify being a 3 point road chalk, that meant on a neutral floor they would be favored by 6, I don't think Milwaukee is 6 points better than Toronto. I think the line was an overreaction to Toronto barely winning game 3, which was a must win for them, but in the playoffs I look at each game individually, what happened the previous game means very little to me, most gamblers have recency bias, they form their opinion based on what they previously saw, but I don't think that way.
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
#40
Golden State is enjoying the rest and developing ways in which to expose the Eastern Conference champs.
Warriors in 5 over the Bucks. They split the first 2 in HELL (Milwaukee - if you have ever been there - same difference) and then the Warriors send the Bucks back to WI but they won't follow. If the Warriors play the Craptors it will also be 5 - Raptors finding a way to win Game 3 or 4
 
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