election odds

Dell Dude

Dell Dude

EOG Master
I say 55-45 Republicans Senate and 223-212 Republicans housepicks.

Just like in 2016, Nate Silver doesn’t understand the correlation. Won by won by won, Senate states are turning red. Florida, Nevada and Missouri would completely shut the Democrats out and give the GOP several free looks. Make it 56 when Manchump switches parties.

howid say you, Birdie?
 
winkyduck

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
The Senate will (unfortunately) stay Red in 2018. It will turn blue in 2020 when you look at how many are up for re-election. I think the House is a real 50/50 situation
 
Dell Dude

Dell Dude

EOG Master
housepicks is impossible to estimate by the individual polls. Have to look at other tells like generic, Trump favourable. Senate correlation. 2/3 of those look good. Trump inching up the 40's, Senate is moving Kesha hard right. If either side closes with an October Surprise Party, that could tip the result as well. Democrats are at a disadvantage . Mueller will wait. Trump may not.
 
Dell Dude

Dell Dude

EOG Master
But Mueller could deal from the bottom of the deck and leak an OMG. Co Co and Manafart have been singing their lungs out. The OMG bar is so high, would have to be off the chart. Like the world has ever seen level.
 
Dell Dude

Dell Dude

EOG Master
winkyduck said:
The Senate will (unfortunately) stay Red in 2018. It will turn blue in 2020 when you look at how many are up for re-election. I think the House is a real 50/50 situation
Click to expand...

True, Senate map is terrible for the Democrats but look at all these states.

Montana
Nevada
Arizona
Florida
Missouri
North Dakota
Tennessee

No reason they shouldn't win 4/7 . Right now, 4/7 is be best case. I'd say 2/7 if election was today. In 2020, map is +EV but it will be a presidential year and that is -EV if Trump repeats.
 
Dell Dude

Dell Dude

EOG Master
Beta has no chance and is going to waste $100 million. If he was a team player, he would sharia with other Dems in tight races.
 
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