Here are the PPs and Sheets for 10/18 SANTA ANITA. Don't expect these everyday guys https://www.scribd.com/document/391082245/THURS-SA-11
https://www.scribd.com/document/391082244/sax1899s-1
EOG Horse Racing thread for 10/18 with PPs and Sheets
- Thread starter Gabe
- Start date
Here are the PPs and Sheets for 10/18 SANTA ANITA. Don't expect these everyday guys https://www.scribd.com/document/391082245/THURS-SA-11
https://www.scribd.com/document/391082244/sax1899s-1
@Viejo Dinosaur no excuses for you not to contribute my kind sir.
@Brayden11 gives us a winner boss.
I will be Live at SANTA ANITA scouting the horses, my friends and I are planning on putting a pick 6 ticket in.
Good luck everyone.
@Brayden11 gives us a winner boss.
I will be Live at SANTA ANITA scouting the horses, my friends and I are planning on putting a pick 6 ticket in.
Good luck everyone.
Avoid These Six Deadly Traits Of Losing Horseplayers
Anyone who plays the races for a living has discipline. Even those who make a part-time living from the races know that they need to avoid negative traits that can hurt their bankroll.
#1 Overestimation of Accuracy of Beliefs
I was sitting in the race book at Bally’s Wild West Casino in Atlantic City one day many years ago and overheard an older gentlemen preaching to three guys that were close enough to him to be in his underwear.
“You gotta play the numbers… the numbers work… more than 90 percent of the time. You gotta trust the numbers or you will lose,” he said.
The three guys were nodding and playing every horse this guy pitched. Based on how they were hanging onto each word and putting their money through the windows, you’d have thought they were his disciples.
While placing my own wager, I caught up with one of the guys in the long line at the windows. I asked him what numbers he was using. Looking around somewhat nervously before answering — like the KGB was going to take him out if he spilled the secret out — he whispered to me: “Beyer numbers man, Beyer numbers — they win 90 percent of the time!”
While I have never tracked the performance of the top Beyer Speed Figure, I can say with confidence that they don’t win 90 percent of the time. Heck, even some of my best angles struggle to cash even 30 percent of the time! Blindly playing any figure or angle won’t work out in the long run. Having reasonable expectations or data to support the frequency of a factor or angle hitting will ground your horseplaying in reality!
#2 Overpriced Bets
I love playing horizontal wagers — daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s and, occasionally, even pick-5s and pick-6s. There have been times I have gone deep on a wager and played a lot of combinations. The great thing about the daily double wager is that you can see the “will pays” for what your bet will pay given the current odds. You can also use these payouts to extrapolate what a pick-3 might return. However, pick-4s and other multiple race wagers are only speculation.
In my many nights up at the old Meadowlands catching the fall thoroughbred meet, my trusty track buddy Walter and I encountered another horizontal player — the Schnoz.
The Schnoz was our age and had what we thought was some solid handicapping ability, but his betting left something to be desired. He played straight wagers and a couple of exotics, exactas mostly, when he wasn’t chasing the daily double, pick-3, or pick-4. We shared a similar approach to betting, so naturally we shared notes once our bets were in.
I was amazed to see the difference in our approach to wagering. The Schnoz would go three to four horses deep in each daily double or pick-3 without any regard for the will-pays. He would hit the pick-4, but often at a break-even payout or even a loss.
What the difference between me and the Schnoz? He didn’t check the will-pays at all and see that he was losing money by going this deep. You need to know whether or not your contenders in each race are long or short odds. If you need to go deep with a lot of short-odd horses, your wager may not be worth the risk.
#3 Married to Position
Sometimes I think horseplayers are more likely to divorce their spouses than to change the way they think. This could be a bias towards a particular horse or jockey.
Horseplayers need to be polygamists. With the recent legalization of sports betting in New Jersey, I have a cardinal rule: don’t bet when you have a biased interest in the outcome. I won’t play a baseball or football game where I have a rooting interest. Likewise, if you are a huge fan of a particular horse or jockey, you will likely bias your handicapping to select that horse or jockey.
I was guilty of this myself on several occasions. I was a huge fan of Tiznow after his huge win over Giant’s Causeway in the 2000 Breeders’ Cup Classic. In his 2001 campaign, I made him my top choice in the Strub, Woodword, and Goodword only to burn my money on his losses. I learned that when I am a fan of a horse that I should stay a fan of the game for that race and not let my own feelings bias my handicapping.
#4 No Precise Game Plan
How often have you seen someone come to the track or OTB with no plan? You know the type; they grab the entry sheet, stare at the monitors, mumble something to themselves and, then, are off to the windows to place a wager. At the Meadowlands, there was a guy we called “The Marine”.
The Marine would walk up to the second-floor grandstand area, take one look at the monitors for about thirty seconds, and then blurt out his pick. More often than not, he was dead wrong. The factors of the race didn’t matter; he just played anything on a whim. One night he’d follow the track handicapper, another night he’d claim that he was playing a post position based on the distance.
If you have been reading my articles for a while, you know I am a fan of doing your homework before going to the track. Knowing which races are playable or not, and knowing your contenders, is a key to limiting your exposure in betting.
#5 Absence of Critical Thinking
The ability to recognize that your handicapping is not working today is a key to preserving your bankroll. Maybe you did your handicapping when you were distracted either by Junior’s soccer game or those four hours of sleep you got the night before. At some point, you need to “stop the bleeding” and let it register in your mind that you are not in the right mindset to figure how the pace of today’s races will set up, much less pick the winner.
#6 Denial
You are losing and not accepting what is happening. Now you are blaming the jockey, the trainer, the guy in the orange hat down by the rail — or maybe the fool who thinks he is riding the horse while watching the simulcast monitors. A single race you can blame on a troubled trip; but, after seven races, it isn’t luck. You are ignoring the message that reality is sending you — whatever it is that you are doing isn’t working.
We are all guilty if the above traits at some time. Yet, if you can recognize when you are falling into any of them you can prevent yourself from losing your hard-earned folding money at the windows!
Ray Wallin
Ray Wallin is a licensed civil engineer and part-time handicapper who has had a presence on the Web since 2000 for various sports and horse racing websites and through his personal blog. Introduced to the sport over the course of a misspent teenage summer at Monmouth Park by his Uncle Dutch, a professional gambler, he quickly fell in love with racing and has been handicapping for over 25 years.
Ray’s background in engineering, along with his meticulous nature and fascination with numbers, parlay into his ability to analyze data; keep records; notice emerging trends; and find new handicapping angles and figures. While specializing in thoroughbred racing, Ray also handicaps harness racing, Quarter Horse racing, baseball, football, hockey, and has been rumored to have calculated the speed and pace ratings on two squirrels running through his backyard.
Ray likes focusing on pace and angle plays while finding the middle ground between the art and science of handicapping. When he is not crunching numbers, Ray enjoys spending time with his family, cheering on his alma mater (Rutgers University), fishing, and playing golf.
Ray’s blog, which focuses on his quest to make it to the NHC Finals while trying to improve his handicapping abilities can be found at www.jerseycapper.blogspot.com Ray can also be found on Twitter (@rayw76) and can be reached via email at ray.wallin@live.com.
Anyone who plays the races for a living has discipline. Even those who make a part-time living from the races know that they need to avoid negative traits that can hurt their bankroll.
#1 Overestimation of Accuracy of Beliefs
I was sitting in the race book at Bally’s Wild West Casino in Atlantic City one day many years ago and overheard an older gentlemen preaching to three guys that were close enough to him to be in his underwear.
“You gotta play the numbers… the numbers work… more than 90 percent of the time. You gotta trust the numbers or you will lose,” he said.
The three guys were nodding and playing every horse this guy pitched. Based on how they were hanging onto each word and putting their money through the windows, you’d have thought they were his disciples.
While placing my own wager, I caught up with one of the guys in the long line at the windows. I asked him what numbers he was using. Looking around somewhat nervously before answering — like the KGB was going to take him out if he spilled the secret out — he whispered to me: “Beyer numbers man, Beyer numbers — they win 90 percent of the time!”
While I have never tracked the performance of the top Beyer Speed Figure, I can say with confidence that they don’t win 90 percent of the time. Heck, even some of my best angles struggle to cash even 30 percent of the time! Blindly playing any figure or angle won’t work out in the long run. Having reasonable expectations or data to support the frequency of a factor or angle hitting will ground your horseplaying in reality!
#2 Overpriced Bets
I love playing horizontal wagers — daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s and, occasionally, even pick-5s and pick-6s. There have been times I have gone deep on a wager and played a lot of combinations. The great thing about the daily double wager is that you can see the “will pays” for what your bet will pay given the current odds. You can also use these payouts to extrapolate what a pick-3 might return. However, pick-4s and other multiple race wagers are only speculation.
In my many nights up at the old Meadowlands catching the fall thoroughbred meet, my trusty track buddy Walter and I encountered another horizontal player — the Schnoz.
The Schnoz was our age and had what we thought was some solid handicapping ability, but his betting left something to be desired. He played straight wagers and a couple of exotics, exactas mostly, when he wasn’t chasing the daily double, pick-3, or pick-4. We shared a similar approach to betting, so naturally we shared notes once our bets were in.
I was amazed to see the difference in our approach to wagering. The Schnoz would go three to four horses deep in each daily double or pick-3 without any regard for the will-pays. He would hit the pick-4, but often at a break-even payout or even a loss.
What the difference between me and the Schnoz? He didn’t check the will-pays at all and see that he was losing money by going this deep. You need to know whether or not your contenders in each race are long or short odds. If you need to go deep with a lot of short-odd horses, your wager may not be worth the risk.
#3 Married to Position
Sometimes I think horseplayers are more likely to divorce their spouses than to change the way they think. This could be a bias towards a particular horse or jockey.
Horseplayers need to be polygamists. With the recent legalization of sports betting in New Jersey, I have a cardinal rule: don’t bet when you have a biased interest in the outcome. I won’t play a baseball or football game where I have a rooting interest. Likewise, if you are a huge fan of a particular horse or jockey, you will likely bias your handicapping to select that horse or jockey.
I was guilty of this myself on several occasions. I was a huge fan of Tiznow after his huge win over Giant’s Causeway in the 2000 Breeders’ Cup Classic. In his 2001 campaign, I made him my top choice in the Strub, Woodword, and Goodword only to burn my money on his losses. I learned that when I am a fan of a horse that I should stay a fan of the game for that race and not let my own feelings bias my handicapping.
#4 No Precise Game Plan
How often have you seen someone come to the track or OTB with no plan? You know the type; they grab the entry sheet, stare at the monitors, mumble something to themselves and, then, are off to the windows to place a wager. At the Meadowlands, there was a guy we called “The Marine”.
The Marine would walk up to the second-floor grandstand area, take one look at the monitors for about thirty seconds, and then blurt out his pick. More often than not, he was dead wrong. The factors of the race didn’t matter; he just played anything on a whim. One night he’d follow the track handicapper, another night he’d claim that he was playing a post position based on the distance.
If you have been reading my articles for a while, you know I am a fan of doing your homework before going to the track. Knowing which races are playable or not, and knowing your contenders, is a key to limiting your exposure in betting.
#5 Absence of Critical Thinking
The ability to recognize that your handicapping is not working today is a key to preserving your bankroll. Maybe you did your handicapping when you were distracted either by Junior’s soccer game or those four hours of sleep you got the night before. At some point, you need to “stop the bleeding” and let it register in your mind that you are not in the right mindset to figure how the pace of today’s races will set up, much less pick the winner.
#6 Denial
You are losing and not accepting what is happening. Now you are blaming the jockey, the trainer, the guy in the orange hat down by the rail — or maybe the fool who thinks he is riding the horse while watching the simulcast monitors. A single race you can blame on a troubled trip; but, after seven races, it isn’t luck. You are ignoring the message that reality is sending you — whatever it is that you are doing isn’t working.
We are all guilty if the above traits at some time. Yet, if you can recognize when you are falling into any of them you can prevent yourself from losing your hard-earned folding money at the windows!
Ray Wallin
Ray Wallin is a licensed civil engineer and part-time handicapper who has had a presence on the Web since 2000 for various sports and horse racing websites and through his personal blog. Introduced to the sport over the course of a misspent teenage summer at Monmouth Park by his Uncle Dutch, a professional gambler, he quickly fell in love with racing and has been handicapping for over 25 years.
Ray’s background in engineering, along with his meticulous nature and fascination with numbers, parlay into his ability to analyze data; keep records; notice emerging trends; and find new handicapping angles and figures. While specializing in thoroughbred racing, Ray also handicaps harness racing, Quarter Horse racing, baseball, football, hockey, and has been rumored to have calculated the speed and pace ratings on two squirrels running through his backyard.
Ray likes focusing on pace and angle plays while finding the middle ground between the art and science of handicapping. When he is not crunching numbers, Ray enjoys spending time with his family, cheering on his alma mater (Rutgers University), fishing, and playing golf.
Ray’s blog, which focuses on his quest to make it to the NHC Finals while trying to improve his handicapping abilities can be found at www.jerseycapper.blogspot.com Ray can also be found on Twitter (@rayw76) and can be reached via email at ray.wallin@live.com.
Midnight Lilly is listed as the 5/2 co-second choice with Road Test on Jon White's morning line at Santa Anita.
Pet peeve: Six-horse field where the favorite is 8/5 and the next two horses in the lineup are BOTH listed at 5/2.
This is a no-no in my book.
One horse should be 5/2 and the other should be 3/1.
Don't copy odds at any price lower than 6/1.
It's why we have prices like 5/2, 7/2 and 9/2.
When you copy odds lower than 6/1, it forces horseplayers to do a double-take while thinking about a possible two-horse entry at low odds.
Pet peeve: Six-horse field where the favorite is 8/5 and the next two horses in the lineup are BOTH listed at 5/2.
This is a no-no in my book.
One horse should be 5/2 and the other should be 3/1.
Don't copy odds at any price lower than 6/1.
It's why we have prices like 5/2, 7/2 and 9/2.
When you copy odds lower than 6/1, it forces horseplayers to do a double-take while thinking about a possible two-horse entry at low odds.
Gabe, please do not use EOG to traffic copyright information.
An occasional post or two for illustration purposes is understandable but please respect the authors of the original work.
Thanks in advance.
An occasional post or two for illustration purposes is understandable but please respect the authors of the original work.
Thanks in advance.
trytrytry
All I do is trytrytry
More important is in 1 day 11 hours the QIPCO British Champions Day at ASCOT
sort of a Turf England Breeders Cup that ends the British Flat season.
four Group1s some of these horses will race next at Breeders cup, some look to peak and win this event however and then done for the year
some of the horses to watch Roaring Lion (entered in 2 races depends how soft groud is, does not like soft groud), Cracksman (son of Frankel)
Stradivarius, Lah Ti Dar, Recoletos (should see at Breeders cup), The Tin Man
on twitter or tweet deck set up a #ChampionsDay search term and you can see and learn lots of the event from the England betting and industry and handicapping perspective.
sort of a Turf England Breeders Cup that ends the British Flat season.
four Group1s some of these horses will race next at Breeders cup, some look to peak and win this event however and then done for the year
some of the horses to watch Roaring Lion (entered in 2 races depends how soft groud is, does not like soft groud), Cracksman (son of Frankel)
Stradivarius, Lah Ti Dar, Recoletos (should see at Breeders cup), The Tin Man
on twitter or tweet deck set up a #ChampionsDay search term and you can see and learn lots of the event from the England betting and industry and handicapping perspective.
trytrytry
All I do is trytrytry
source san diego tribune.
Hudak the morning-line man at Del Mar
Chris Ello
All of it, in a sense, starts with Russ Hudak.
Well, sure, there are the owners, the trainers, the jockeys and the horses themselves. But if you’re into betting the races — and most who have come here for the past 77 summers are — it all begins with the man who establishes the morning line.
That’s Hudak, whose expertise goes back well over 30 years in racing, and whose opinion sets the tone for the bets handicappers and fans make every single race, every single day. For Sunday’s feature race, the $75,000-added Osunitas Stakes, it was Hudak’s fourth choice, Sobradora Inc, that raced home victorious to give jockey Rafael Bejarano his third win of the day.
An undefeated 4-year-old filly from Argentina, Sobradora Inc opened at 5-1 in Hudak’s morning line. By the time she left the gate, bettors had overlooked her such that her odds jumped to 9-1. When she rolled under the finish line for her fifth win in as many tries, running 11/16-miles on the turf course in 1 minute, 40.89 seconds, the final number that mattered most was the $20.40 she paid to win.
Hudak puts up the first number that matters.
“In a lot of ways, the morning line is simply a guide for everyone,” said Hudak, 64, who got involved in racing back in his college days at Monmouth Park in New Jersey and began setting lines at Hollywood Park in 1981. “I’m trying to handicap the race, but also I’m trying to figure out which horses are going to draw the most attention from the betting public.”
Juno drew plenty of attention Sunday, dropping from the 9-2 second choice to the 2-1 favorite. But after leading most of the way, she faded to fifth. Hudak had tabbed Elektrum as the 5-2 morning line favorite. She went off at 5-2 (Hudak is accurate more times than not) but finished third, a nose behind Prize Exhibit, who also was 9-1 at post time.
Hudak puts together the morning line odds two or three days ahead of the races, and says he has a system he uses in placing odds on each horse in a given race. Obviously, each race will have favorites all the way down to long shots, but Hudak wants the odds spread out evenly.
“In the NFL, they make odds based on trying to get equal betting on each side,” Hudak pointed out. “In horse racing, we want the odds to reflect how much money is probably going to be bet along with making sure there is money left over for the track’s take.”
Hudak says his morning line favorite actually winds up as the race favorite about 70 percent of the time. Remember, once Hudak posts his number, it’s still the bettors who determine the actual odds. And the bettors are right about one-third of the time. At Del Mar, as of Sunday, favorites had won 34.4 percent of the races.
“It’s an inexact science, which of course is what makes the racing so fun,” Hudak said. “But that doesn’t mean that I don’t try to be as conscientious as I can be when I put out the numbers.”
Hudak the morning-line man at Del Mar
Chris Ello
All of it, in a sense, starts with Russ Hudak.
Well, sure, there are the owners, the trainers, the jockeys and the horses themselves. But if you’re into betting the races — and most who have come here for the past 77 summers are — it all begins with the man who establishes the morning line.
That’s Hudak, whose expertise goes back well over 30 years in racing, and whose opinion sets the tone for the bets handicappers and fans make every single race, every single day. For Sunday’s feature race, the $75,000-added Osunitas Stakes, it was Hudak’s fourth choice, Sobradora Inc, that raced home victorious to give jockey Rafael Bejarano his third win of the day.
An undefeated 4-year-old filly from Argentina, Sobradora Inc opened at 5-1 in Hudak’s morning line. By the time she left the gate, bettors had overlooked her such that her odds jumped to 9-1. When she rolled under the finish line for her fifth win in as many tries, running 11/16-miles on the turf course in 1 minute, 40.89 seconds, the final number that mattered most was the $20.40 she paid to win.
Hudak puts up the first number that matters.
“In a lot of ways, the morning line is simply a guide for everyone,” said Hudak, 64, who got involved in racing back in his college days at Monmouth Park in New Jersey and began setting lines at Hollywood Park in 1981. “I’m trying to handicap the race, but also I’m trying to figure out which horses are going to draw the most attention from the betting public.”
Juno drew plenty of attention Sunday, dropping from the 9-2 second choice to the 2-1 favorite. But after leading most of the way, she faded to fifth. Hudak had tabbed Elektrum as the 5-2 morning line favorite. She went off at 5-2 (Hudak is accurate more times than not) but finished third, a nose behind Prize Exhibit, who also was 9-1 at post time.
Hudak puts together the morning line odds two or three days ahead of the races, and says he has a system he uses in placing odds on each horse in a given race. Obviously, each race will have favorites all the way down to long shots, but Hudak wants the odds spread out evenly.
“In the NFL, they make odds based on trying to get equal betting on each side,” Hudak pointed out. “In horse racing, we want the odds to reflect how much money is probably going to be bet along with making sure there is money left over for the track’s take.”
Hudak says his morning line favorite actually winds up as the race favorite about 70 percent of the time. Remember, once Hudak posts his number, it’s still the bettors who determine the actual odds. And the bettors are right about one-third of the time. At Del Mar, as of Sunday, favorites had won 34.4 percent of the races.
“It’s an inexact science, which of course is what makes the racing so fun,” Hudak said. “But that doesn’t mean that I don’t try to be as conscientious as I can be when I put out the numbers.”
trytrytry
All I do is trytrytry
what you want at a race track actually is a horrid person making the ML especially listing lots of false favorites imo. I prefer that (not for the top level races) but for the average Joe race
ML odds do influence double odds, pick 3 number of times used, trifectas , not enough to wipe out the huge track takeouts but it does influence.
ML odds do influence double odds, pick 3 number of times used, trifectas , not enough to wipe out the huge track takeouts but it does influence.
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trytrytry
All I do is trytrytry
in Dog racing many tracks now flash the trifecta total number of times a dog is taken, like 754, 323, 125, 1200, so you sort of know and its OPEN (if you look) at that info.
horse racing has that technology and never shows it. a quick flash would show abnormal use of a horse in a trifecta, super, pick 3, etc. could be golden info as not many would look and study that.
also there is some rumors that some ADWs or tote providers have or allow access to groups to know or spit out underlay/overlay combos in the tris, superfecta as in seeing int he computers the "will pays" and finding those statistical underbet combinations so they can gobble them up. hong Kong racing is full of that sort of access, the public has no chance at getting overlays. plus those same groups getting the overlay info also gets huge REBATE kickbacks. thats a group I need to find. how lives in Hong Kong!
horse racing has that technology and never shows it. a quick flash would show abnormal use of a horse in a trifecta, super, pick 3, etc. could be golden info as not many would look and study that.
also there is some rumors that some ADWs or tote providers have or allow access to groups to know or spit out underlay/overlay combos in the tris, superfecta as in seeing int he computers the "will pays" and finding those statistical underbet combinations so they can gobble them up. hong Kong racing is full of that sort of access, the public has no chance at getting overlays. plus those same groups getting the overlay info also gets huge REBATE kickbacks. thats a group I need to find. how lives in Hong Kong!
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trytrytry
All I do is trytrytry
a make your year sort of horse. horse has won at this quite long distance turf before, granted has not looked good since last year that is why nobody will use him nd will be 50-1 plus. but trainer McPeek is inthis one a graded race here off a super short time away is it 6 days? something just seems strange on the trainers intentions here. good post on the turf and will come off the pace in a race that has some pace.
gabe what does bruno say if anything about this nutty no chance horse?
I dont usually play or share the 70-1 type horses as well dont but the college education on the line here for the kids or grandkids, on the other hand college is covered if this one hits the wire first!
but Im playing in the horizontals pic 3s
keenland race 8
#1 Some In Tieme (Brz 30 -1 ML)
Jockey: Manoel Cruz Trainer: Kenneth Mcpeek
safe play to use with him in horizontals is #5 arklow who is a nice classy horse
gabe what does bruno say if anything about this nutty no chance horse?
I dont usually play or share the 70-1 type horses as well dont but the college education on the line here for the kids or grandkids, on the other hand college is covered if this one hits the wire first!
but Im playing in the horizontals pic 3s
keenland race 8
#1 Some In Tieme (Brz 30 -1 ML)
Jockey: Manoel Cruz Trainer: Kenneth Mcpeek
safe play to use with him in horizontals is #5 arklow who is a nice classy horse
The morning line oddsmaker at NYRA is Eric Donovan.
He's solid.
Math-based and he does a lot of homework.
He's solid.
Math-based and he does a lot of homework.
Why do you say not to copy odds? Sometimes it has to be done.
my pleasure sir. Stick around, we are going to have some fun around here.
Heim
EOG Master
Gentlemen, please.
I'm trying to win money here.
I'm trying to win money here.
Order of finish: 6-4-8.
Bushay
NHL Expert
You'd be gone a long time ago if that ever were to happen.
John Kelly you’re not a leader . This place has become a cesspool of bad handicappers and trolls. It’s time to start leading, your lack of leadership is bringing down the ship.
How many threads are going to be destroyed by heim, Blueline and Bushay? They start every argument on here.
Heim and Blueline should be placed on post review until they calm down .
How many threads are going to be destroyed by heim, Blueline and Bushay? They start every argument on here.
Heim and Blueline should be placed on post review until they calm down .
blueline
EOG Master
give him enough rope....
Viejo Dinosaur
EOG Master
Gabe...you are crossing a thin line...JK let you come back and now you are biting the hand that feeds you....not cool....