EOG's Best Bet thread for Monday, December 2

>Posting on Monday for Tuesday spot for Tuesday night game...
Tuesday, December 3—200088 MC-Burnley Over 3 -125 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

3:15 pm EST/12:15 pm PST (NBCSN, NBCSports.com, NBC Sports App, Telemundo Deportes En Vivo, SiriusXM FC)—The EPL will play Matchweek 15 from Tuesday to Thursday, so we head to Turf Moor (Desso GrassMaster) in Burnley, Lancashire, England to bet on a Total, the Over in the Manchester City-Burnley match. Burnley (20 GF-20 GA) sits in 10th place and the Clarets are having a respectable season at 5-3-6 with 18 points earned—the same as league icon Manchester United, hated foe of these Noisy Neighbors from Sky Blue Mancunia with whom they’ll kick shins this coming Saturday (Dec 7).

While Burnley is content for now, it must remember it’s just 6 points from 17th place and some potential Fear And Loathing On Harry Potts Way, Manchester City (9-2-3, 39 GF-16 GA, +23 GD) is having a miserable season for them, now 11 points behind leader Liverpool (40 points) after having to settle for 1 point in a late 2-2 Draw at Newcastle United in Matchweek 14. So Raheem Sterling, Kevin DeBruyne and the Citizens are mad and this seems like one of those fixtures where a club can hit (or surpass) he Total themselves.

So this Soccer handicap is like 80% Art with the statistical Science showing Burnley able to play close, low-scoring games at Home vs the champs (BURN 0-1 MC, BURN 1-1 MC, BURN 1-2, BURN 1-0 MC, BURN 1-6 MC), with only 3 MC goals having been scored once in the L4 meetings at Turf Moor with the usually high-flying Citizens totaling just 3 goals in their L4 trips there. Why doth thou forsake me, Sergio?

In the L10 EPL meetings overall, there have been at least 3 goals scored, but the 4 which weren’t were all played at Burnley. So expecting City to get 3 against GK Tom Heaton when it’s only had 1 once in the first 45 minutes in the L4 there is a strong commitment to the Sky Blues (-450) waking up quickly against a Burnley (+1200, Draw +525) side who won’t be caught off guard or be scared and will be aiming for the upset. But the problem for the Clarets here seems to be the timing as MC will be in a very foul mood after seemingly rescuing 3 points on a late superb KDB goal only to see Jonjo Shelvey equalize minutes later and burst their bubble. Chasing 11 points means no room for error for the visitors who just haven't been clicking on the attack like recent years, despite the loaded and expensive Roster.

So how does a club who can’t score at Burnley get 3 in this scary spot? Fear. And probably Belgian Kevin De Bruyne who looks like the heart of this team despite Sterling’s (9 goals) speed and talent and Sergio Agüero’s (8 goals) status and tenure. The Two Silvas—David and Bernardo (5 goals)—could also be keys here for the defending champions who are playing like the current bewildered look on the face of their Manager, Pep Guardiola, with the weight of the UEFA Champions League, EPL and English Carabao Cup play wearing the players down as the Weather—forecast by TWC to be miserable at Burnley on Tuesday evening (Partly Cloudy, Low 35º, SSW Winds 10 to 15 mph)—starts to get chill-chill-chillier. How exactly did the Ox and Lamb keep Time? And did they know each other before?

Here, 3rd-place City must force a quick Pace and maximize the number of quality Shots on Target to try-try-try to come away with the victory and playing on Tuesday while Liverpool hosts Everton on Wednesday in the Merseyside Derby (LIV -280, EVE +775, DRAW +410; 3u -120) means losing any further ground in early December is definitely not on City’s “To Do” list right now. And it's always Now. But trying so hard to score and mute the Burnley crowd early may lead to a score on the counterattack. Intertops has a 2½o -222 for anyone interested.

But at some point, City may have to cash in hopes of winning the league again this season, but still, it’s a very long way from now until May although Liverpool (unbeaten L31 EPL) losing at Anfield (37-10-0 L47 EPL) suddenly seems about as likely as Clint Eastwood dying in a 1965 Spaghetti Western. I shall put a healthy Winning Streak on the line with the Art and omnipresent feel KDB, Sterling, Agüero, Silva 1, Silva 2, Riyad Mahrez and Ilkay Gündogan can combine to score 3 goals in a spot in which MC needs to win. But I feel I have read this book before and am losing Hope in the story's worn down heroes.

Burnley 1 Manchester City 3

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